Chinese video-sharing service Bilibili hammered by record bearish bets even after company’s shares dive almost 90 per cent

Chinese video-sharing services provider Bilibili has emerged as a prime target for short sellers in the US even after the stock tumbled almost 90 per cent over the past 18 months, a sign of how pessimistic some investors are about the economic outlook.

Short interest in Nasdaq-listed Bilibili jumped to a record last week, with bearish positions accounting for almost half of shares outstanding, IHS Markit data show. That makes the live-streaming platform operator one of the most shorted US stocks among companies with a market value of US$2 billion or more.

The bets show just how wary – and selective – investors have become as it relates to putting money into China’s technology sector, as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index sinks about 30 per cent this year.

The stock is under pressure even after Beijing’s year-long regulatory clampdown eased, in part because investors are concerned that Bilibili will not become profitable any time soon, given that advertising spending is weakening along with the slowing economy. Bilibili closed 1.6 per cent lower on Friday.

“This market reaction makes sense in the current environment where cost of capital is rising and investors are no longer willing to assume these companies turn profitable and grow profits in the distant future, especially with regulatory tightening and difficult economic conditions in China,” said Louis Lau, a portfolio manager at Brandes Investment Partners.

Bilibili stands out when it comes to Chinese firms traded in the US. In 2021, it reported the biggest net loss among the 65 members of the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index.

During the second quarter, the Shanghai-based firm was one of the few Chinese internet companies that missed analyst expectations. That prompted brokerages including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank to slash target price forecasts, citing the impact of a slowing economy on Bilibili’s bottom line.

The firm is among a slew of unprofitable Chinese companies in the social media and entertainment sectors. These high cash burners have expanded aggressively, thanks to years of cheap capital.

Now, China’s weakening economy is not just hurting the ability to raise cash, it is also slowing consumer spending and hurting online advertising, which contributed one-quarter of Bilibili’s revenue last year.

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“The pace of profitability could be slower than the market expects, with weaker cost discipline and slower growth for ads and games,” Morgan Stanley analysts, including Alex Poon, wrote in a September 9 research note on Bilibili. The brokerage also slashed its price target by 12 per cent, citing high cash burn.

Beyond Bilibili, investors are also counting some other Chinese firms as good short bets. Short bets on online property agent platform Ke Holdings and social media platform Zhihu spiked this month. Both firms have been unprofitable for the past two years, and fund managers are now turning to companies that are stronger financially.

“During a market downturn, we would prefer companies that have high-quality, good cash flow and earnings certainty, because they have some buffer to offer dividends and share buy-backs to support shares,” said William Fong, head of Hong Kong China equities at Barings.