Chill out China and America, the Arctic is not worth a cold war

It is ironic that faster-than-expected climate change has created a new economic opportunity in the Arctic just as environmentalists start talking up a “blue economy” based on the sustainable use of ocean resources.

Thanks to global warming and the melting of the ice caps, a new ocean is steadily emerging and with it the prospects of new shipping lanes and access to hitherto untapped natural resources.

But the geopolitical risks involved in exploiting these opportunities – to say nothing of the environmental consequences – may well outweigh the commercial benefits.

That’s because these newly accessible commercial opportunities increase the risk that the Arctic could become a new arena of conflict in the deteriorating relationship between the world’s greatest powers – the United States, China and Russia.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made no secret of the rivalry when he described the region recently as “an arena of global power and competition”.

Speaking in Finland at the opening session of the Arctic Council this month, Pompeo claimed China planned to grab territory in the Arctic much as it had in the South China Sea. Russia had similar ideas, he said.

The Arctic Council is composed of eight countries: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the US, all of whom have territory inside the Arctic Circle. China is among 13 non-Arctic states granted observer status.

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The reason for countries’ interest in the region is clear – and it has little to do with polar bears. Rather, its significance is to do with its vast resources. The Arctic is estimated to hold 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and one-seventh of its untapped oil reserves, plus other valuable minerals.

Not only does the melting of the ice promise to make retrieving these resources easier, it will effectively open up a new shipping channel that will be of more use to China – the world’s largest merchandise exporter – than any other country. If China could ship goods to Europe through the Arctic Ocean it would cut the length of its delivery routes by a third.

What’s more, this “new ocean” could be here within just decades as the temperatures in the Arctic are rising at twice the rate of the rest of the globe.

So it should be no surprise that China, hungry for the energy and mineral resources needed to fuel the world’s manufacturing hub, has shown a keen interest in exploring for natural resources there. And it’s not just for energy.

The region’s fishing stocks – the world’s largest store of biological protein – could supplement China’s own overfished waters. In its first Arctic strategy white paper, published in January, Beijing declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and a “stakeholder”, despite its distance from the region. It added that it wanted to build a “Polar Silk Road” in the “new ocean”.

It has already been spending heavily in the region, investing US$90 billion between 2012 and 2017, building several polar research institutions and financing several scientific expeditions to the region.

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Russia, too, has upped its game, increasing investment, expanding its fleet of icebreakers to more than 40, reopening cold war-era military bases above the Arctic Circle and making plans to deploy anti-aircraft missiles on some of them.

As Beijing and Moscow scramble for influence, Washington is adding to its forces in the region, conducting more military exercises, rebuilding its icebreaking fleet and creating a senior military position for Arctic affairs.

On some estimates, this newfound interest in the region will attract up to US$1 trillion of investment. Such large-scale investment will inevitably have an enormous impact on vulnerable ecosystems unless it is managed under the strict scrutiny of the international community.

Militarisation should be rejected outright by the international community, as such activities will not help regional development – only undermine regional stability and peace.

The greatest priority for the world should be conserving and protecting the environment of one of the world’s last unspoilt regions. Its most urgent task is how to invest in stopping further degradation of the environment and, where possible, reversing it. Otherwise disappearing sea ice threatens to do far more harm than good.

China’s plan for the Arctic – and a shipping centre to rival Singapore

Experts have long warned that industrial and military activities, such as shipping and seismic exploration, can harm marine species such as fish, seals and whales.

Under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, all resources of the deep seabed and ocean floor that are beyond national jurisdictions are considered the common heritage of mankind.

The convention, signed up to by 167 countries, not only imposes an obligation on all states to protect and preserve the marine environment, it requires all states to cooperate, regionally and globally, towards that objective. All major stakeholders, whether they are in the Arctic Circle or not, should put such duties ahead of any commercial interests.

The priority for the Arctic should be to maintain it as a peaceful, harmonious place not only for human beings, but for its true owners – the animals living there. ■

Cary Huang is a veteran China affairs columnist, having written on the topic since the early 1990s