How an all-out trade war with China would cost Australia 6 per cent of GDP

China accounted for more than one-third of the export dollars Australia earned in the 12 months to October, covering the period of coronavirus disruptions and disputes over trade.

The figures, which apply to physical exports rather than harder to measure services, are dominated by record high Chinese takings of Australian iron ore – but they might not last.

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China is changing, transitioning from growth driven by the iron-ore hungry expansion of cities and manufacturing to growth driven more by the supply of services.

Externally, its belt and road infrastructure investments facilitate the supply of resources from locations other than Australia, among them the Simandou iron ore and bauxite deposits in Guinea, West Africa that will eventually offer higher quality ore than Australia from a region China may regard as more friendly.

Even if this source is slow to emerge, China will seek to diversify its supplies of iron ore by other means, as suggested by Australia’s former ambassador Geoff Raby in his recent book China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s Future in the New Global Order.

One will be to ensure a steady supply from Brazil which, with China, is a member of the BRICS group of major emerging national economies.

Australia produces few manufactured goods and pays for the considerable quantity it imports by exporting commodities, mostly to China.

The loss of this export channel would be serious, but how serious?

Iron ore matters

Economist John Quiggin and James Laurenceson, director of the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology, Sydney, argue the effects would be small. They point out that mineral exports account for only 1 per cent of Australia’s national income and that China would hurt itself if it cut off the flow.

But China’s size means the damage to China would be proportionately smaller than the damage to Australia.

And while the mining sector is not the largest in Australia’s economy, its growth since 2002 has brought with it a secondary boom in Australian service industries. Australia’s East Coast cities have prospered even while most of the mining has been occurring in the Pilbara region.

The mining boom brought a substantial boost to Australia’s terms of trade – the earning power of exports relative to the cost of imports – pushing up the Australian dollar and making imported goods much cheaper.

A reversal would see the country’s terms of trade fall and cost of living rise.

Some commentators place store in Australia’s ability to redirect exports of wine and barley, and whatever else is affected by trade disputes, to other customers.

At least for iron ore, however, there are few other customers at current volumes. This suggests a decline in export prices and in Australia’s terms of trade.

So its worthwhile attempting to quantify the damage from a winding back by China of its imports from Australia.

We have conducted simulations of the effect of shutting down Australia-China trade by 95 per cent in which we allow time for capital flows and production and employment to readjust and assume that monetary policy and fiscal balances remain unaltered throughout the world.

We find the shock to the demand for Australian products is large and it is only partially offset by the redirection of exports, even with a large depreciation of the Australian dollar.

The reason for this is that the loss of Chinese exports reduces the rate of return on investment in Australia, forcing financial markets to reallocate finance to other parts of the world.

The effects on Australian gross domestic product and real disposable income per capita are big – 6 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively – while those on China are mosquito bites by comparison, at 0.5 per cent and 2.4 per cent.

Be prepared

To hedge against such an occurrence Australia can maintain strong relations with current and potential export destinations and foster innovations that will allow its export product mix to adjust so as to better service the markets that remain open.

Examples include the proposal by Ross Garnaut to turn Australia into an exporter of green energy and associated plans by Fortescue and others to raise exports of energy by more than the east coast of Australia currently consumes.

Without such innovations a substantial decline in trade with China would cut investment in Australia and cut living standards.

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It is, of course, entirely possible that the worst will not happen, but we do not think that is something Australians can bank on.

If the ship does begin to sink, capital and skills will jump off and what we are left with will not be enough to support us in the manner we have come to expect.

Read the original article at The Conversation