US election: Why are more Indian-Americans turning to Donald Trump?

They make up just 1 per cent of the US electorate, but Indian-Americans could be an important swing bloc at the November 3 presidential election.

With more than 1.9 million eligible voters, some analysts say the community could tip the balance in key swing states with close calls: Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Texas, which has 160,000 Indian-American voters.

According to an October 29 survey conducted by the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion, President Donald Trump had the support of 48 per cent of likely Texas voters, while Biden had 47 per cent. Some 1 per cent said they were undecided.

But while Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and his part-Indian running mate, Kamala Harris, may appear appealing to a group that has long leaned left, recent surveys suggest a spike in the number of Trump-voting Indians, with many former Democratic supporters pledging to back the president.

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A survey by AAPI Data showed that while just 16 per cent of the community supported Trump in 2016, that number was projected to rise to 28 per cent this election – the strongest support by Indian-Americans for a Republican candidate by far.

Chief among the varied reasons for the swing to the right is Trump’s perceived closeness to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the survey showed.

Older Indian voters were likely behind this wave of Republican support, one observer said.

“One is more likely going to find right-wing groups in the first generation, among immigrants,” said Khyati Joshi, a professor of education at Fairleigh Dickinson University in New Jersey. “The pull for Trump is not just his romance with Modi, but the fact that Trump sold himself as a successful businessman.”

At Modi’s “Howdy Modi” event in Houston last year, the Indian leader embraced his American counterpart and appeared to endorse his re-election campaign to the 50,000-strong crowd.

More recently, in August, the Trump campaign released its first video targeted to Indian-American voters, in which Modi‘s bonhomie with the US leader featured prominently.

“It’s really important to remember the experiences that affect immigrants in the diaspora,” said Joshi, who has written several books about race, ethnicity and immigration. “Their connection to the homeland is frozen … which leads to nostalgia and a longing for the homeland.”

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The growth in conservative Indian supporters has coincided with the rising Hindu nationalist movement in India, said Sara Sidhwani, an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College who specialises in Asian-American voting behaviour.

“There are certainly a smaller number of Indian-Americans who align with the Republican Party and with President Trump,” Sidhwani said.

“And that number is likely growing somewhat, as the conservative, Hindu Nationalist movement in India gains more steam,” she said. “It is evidenced by an Indian-American Republican candidate running against Representative Ro Khanna, the Democrat Indian-American who represents the San Jose, California district.”

Sangay Mishra, an assistant professor of political science at Drew University in New Jersey, said some supporters of Hindu nationalism had been trying to gain American support for the Indian stance on several issues, including Kashmir and the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

Modi’s government last year stripped the autonomy of the contested region of Kashmir, sparking international censure. It also passed a controversial citizenship law that could strip millions of Muslims of Indian citizenship and also excludes Muslims of neighbouring countries from gaining citizenship in India.

Some Democrats, including Bernie Sanders and Indian-American lawmaker Pramila Jayapal, criticised New Delhi over its actions. So did Biden and Harris.

“[Conservative Indian voters] are saying that Trump is good for India because Trump would not interfere on Kashmir, nor would he criticise India on CAA or other human rights violations,” said Mishra, the author of Desis Divided: The Political Lives of South Asian Americans.

Democrat-leaning Hindu groups have also lobbied the Biden camp with “letters, comments, tweets” to soften his stance on Kashmir, with the underlying message being that “if you turn anti-India, then Indian-Americans would turn against you”, Mishra said.

Still, the academic was quick to note that despite the rising tide of Hindu nationalism, traditional “kitchen-table issues” such as education, taxes, jobs and health care remained key priorities for Indian-Americans.

“The people who are threatening an exodus from the Democratic Party, they don’t control the entire Indian-American vote,” Mishra said. “The threat is more of a discourse.”