Source:
https://scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3037992/malaysias-barisan-nasional-opposition-tipped-comeback-racially
This Week in Asia/ Politics

Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional opposition tipped for comeback in racially charged Johor by-election

  • Coalition member the Malaysian Chinese Association is expected to clinch the seat for Tanjung Piai as disillusionment with the government grows
  • Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has visited the constituency and accused the opposition of riling up racial sentiment
The recently ousted Barisan Nasional coalition is tipped to win in Tanjung Piai. Photo: Bloomberg

An opposition win may be on the cards for a closely watched by-election in Malaysia’s southernmost state, with analysts predicting a return to form for the recently ousted Barisan Nasional coalition as ethno-religious dog-whistling goes into overdrive a day before polling.

The Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), which was decimated in national polls last year when it managed to hold on to only one of 222 parliamentary seats, is tipped to clinch Tanjung Piai in Johor when voters head to the polls this weekend.

But the opposition coalition member has also been taken to task after news reports emerged alleging it was opposed to the teaching of Arabic calligraphy at schools in the Muslim majority nation.

The organisation quickly shot down the accusation on Friday, with president Wee Ka Siong clarifying that his party had “never stated we are against it”.

The issue of khat, a form of Arabic-based Jawi script, became national news in August when the Education Ministry mooted introducing it into the national syllabus as a mandatory topic, before walking back the proposal.

The plan gave rise to complaints about the “Islamisation” of education in multireligious Malaysia, where racial lines are firmly drawn and identity politics play a large role in policymaking.

Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Photo: Bloomberg
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Photo: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who leads Malaysia’s ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition, has visited the constituency, where he claimed the opposition had been riling up racial sentiment and trying to “mislead” voters by saying he was still a leader of Barisan Nasional – his former coalition during his first stint as premier from 1981 to 2003.

“Today, there are leaflets seeking support for [Pakatan Harapan candidate] Haji Karmaine [Sardini] but with a ‘Buy Muslim First’ logo on them as well. All done just to anger the Chinese,” the prime minister told local media.

In a constituency where 57 per cent of voters are ethnic Malay-Muslims and 42 per cent ethnic Chinese, MCA candidate Wee Jeck Seng is widely tipped to win the by-election, which would double MCA’s parliamentary representation. The electoral contest is a six-way fight with Pakatan Harapan’s Karmaine and four other candidates.

In previous by-elections, former Barisan Nasional lead party the United Malays National Organisation (Umno) took centre stage, utilising ethno-religious rhetoric to play on long-instilled insecurities within the nation’s largest vote bank – ethnic Malays who make up more than 60 per cent of the population. This segment are now questioning whether the new government can effectively safeguard affirmative action privileges guaranteed by law, including preferential access to education, land reserves, and civil service entry quotas.

Non-Malay citizens – who overwhelmingly voted for Pakatan Harapan – have accused the new government of pandering to Malays after winning 2018 polls with less than 30 per cent of the Malay vote.

“The key this time is the Chinese vote,” said analyst James Chin from the University of Tasmania’s Asia Institute.

The Malaysian Chinese Association accounts for one MP, six senators and two assemblymen. Photo: AP
The Malaysian Chinese Association accounts for one MP, six senators and two assemblymen. Photo: AP

He said ethnic Chinese constituents previously enamoured with the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a member of the Pakatan Harapan coalition and a former opposition force, had over the past year shown less enthusiasm.

“Prior to the general elections last year, MCA were viewed as ‘running dogs’ for Umno, but now people see the DAP as the same within the Pakatan Harapan coalition thanks to issues like khat,” Chin said.

“But this by-election shows that the Barisan Nasional ‘spirit’ is alive. It is a test to see if Umno can work with MCA once again, and whether the DAP – a multiracial party whose support base is mainly ethnic Chinese – can hold on to this vote given the anger among the community. It will indicate that MCA still has some support in the Chinese community.”

Pollster Ilham Centre has already predicted a Barisan Nasional win in Tanjung Piai – which was won by Pakatan Harapan in 2018 – saying that MCA’s strong grass-roots backing and the Chinese swing of support would see it across the line.

The think tank’s study found that among the reasons Chinese votes would swing to Barisan Nasional were the government’s poor performance, failure to fulfil election promises, and the rising cost of living – key gripes that Pakatan Harapan has been grappling with since its victory.

“The politics being pursued in this ‘New Malaysia’ is the same as before,” said political scientist Awang Azman Awang Pawi at the University of Malaya’s Institute of Malay Studies, adding that Pakatan Harapan’s perceived lack of focus on improving the economy underscored the problems.

“Barisan Nasional is tipped to win – and once they do, it must serve as a signal to Pakatan Harapan to focus on both economic issues as well as those of national unity.”

Besides its current sole member of parliament, the MCA accounts for just six of 70 senators and two of over 500 assemblymen holding state seats. As part of the previous Barisan Nasional government, the party was viewed as a “younger brother” to the Malay-dominated Umno, which had more than 20 cabinet members compared to the MCA’s three.

The party recently rebranded when marking its 70th anniversary, pledging to form government monitoring groups to observe federal ministries as part of its “MCA 2.0” push to provide checks and balances.