Singapore election: 5 key takeaways as voters deny ruling PAP a ‘blank cheque’

Singapore accountant David Chew stood in line for almost two hours in the afternoon heat to cast his vote in the city state’s 13th general election.

But the wait was worth it. The opposition Workers’ Party that he voted for won in his Sengkang group representation constituency (GRC) – only the second time a multi-seat ward has not gone to the ruling People’s Action Party since independent Singapore’s first elections in 1959.

Singapore election: the present and future of the People’s Action Party

“The PAP wanted a strong mandate. But I think it’s better to vote for a stronger opposition to keep them on their toes,” said Chew over the phone. In the background, people could be clearly heard chanting “Worker’s Party”. “As you can tell, many of my neighbours are also similarly elated,” he said.

Voters like Chew sent a strong signal to the ruling People’s Action Party, one in which they clearly preferred stronger competition and more diversity in parliament.

It was a stinging rebuke to the PAP, which had described this year’s poll as a crisis election. Singapore is facing a public health emergency and its worst recession since independence and the ruling party had been relying on the fact that voters historically tended to vote for the incumbent in times of crisis.

After the dust settled, voters returned PAP to power with 83 of 93 seats. But its vote share tumbled to 61.2 per cent, eight percentage points lower than the 69.9 per cent it received in 2015.

Voters instead plumped for credible opposition and gave the WP four more seats, bringing their total to 10. The WP’s vote share in the wards it contested also rose to a record high of 50.49 per cent, marking it as the strongest rival to the PAP since independence.

But the devil, as always, is in the detail. Here are five observations we can draw from results of Singapore’s 13th general election:

NO FLIGHT TO SAFETY

Analysts were initially expecting a flight to safety, with voters preferring to stick with a tried and tested party. The opposition even warned that they faced a wipeout after the PAP government unleashed four budgets worth nearly S$100 billion (US$71.9 billion) to cushion the economy from the effects of Covid-19.

The last time Singapore held an election during a recession was in 2001, when the PAP won with a handsome 75 per cent of the vote. But this time, voters decided to opt for competition instead of stability.

As Singapore Management University law professor Eugene Tan put it: “The flight to safety just didn’t happen.”

Voters gave more seats to the WP, while lowering the PAP’s vote share all across the island.

Analysts had expected the PAP’s vote share to drop from 2015, arguing that its strong performance that year was down to the “Lee Kuan Yew effect”. Singapore’s founding prime minister died in 2015 and there was an outpouring of gratitude for his legacy, which translated into votes for the PAP.

But few would have expected voters to turn away from the PAP in droves, with its vote share falling in nearly all the wards it contested. The numbers were staggering. West Coast suffered a vote swing of as high as 26 percentage points while Chua Chu Kang saw a huge drop of 17 percentage points.

Singapore election: the parties taking on the PAP on July 10

The performance from the PAP – in power for more than 60 years – is closer to its 2011 showing, which was its worst performance in four decades. Back then, it won 60.1 per cent of all votes cast, losing a GRC for the first time in the process.

At the start of this year’s election, the PAP seemed to ooze quiet confidence. It retired 20 existing MPs, including several ministers, and put a number of first-time candidates in single seat wards.

But the result was as surprising as it was harsh, and came as a body blow to the party. Not only did its vote share get slashed, it also lost a key member of its fourth-generation leadership team – labour chief Ng Chee Meng, who had helmed Sengkang GRC.

“We have a clear mandate, but the percentage of the popular vote is not as high as I had hoped for,” said PAP’s Secretary-General Lee Hsien Loong.

“The results reflect the pain and uncertainty that Singaporeans feel in this crisis, the loss of income, the anxiety about jobs, the disruption caused by the circuit breaker and the safe distancing restrictions.”

DID EAST COAST PAY OFF?

The PAP put the political career of its next prime minister on the line when it moved Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat to East Coast GRC at the last minute to contest against the WP’s Team B. The expectation was that his status as leader-in-waiting would demolish the opposition’s hopes of entrenching itself in the ward.

Heng won East Coast with just 53.41 per cent of the vote, pushed to the wire by a seemingly lightweight team. The result was lower than its 60.73 per cent margin in 2015 and lower than the 54.83 in 2011.

PM Lee Hsien Loong says results ‘show clear desire for diversity of voices’

One reading of the result was that if he wasn’t moved to East Coast, it could have also fallen to the WP, which has been working the ground there for more than a decade. By installing him in the ward, the PAP effectively put a backstop against the WP’s expansion into the east.

But it is hard to ignore the fact that putting the future prime minister in a tight spot was a risky move. He was not a known face in the ward and only had nine days to appeal to voters. Coupled with a strong swing to the opposition, the win for Heng and his team was a close shave.

“There was always going to be a measured swing against the PAP from 2015. But I think they didn’t expect the ground to be this sour,” said Rajaratnam School of International Studies political science professor Alan Chong.

PAP STALWARTS REMAIN POPULAR

While the opposition made gains, voters also handed PAP stalwarts big wins in their traditional bases.

Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam was the most popular, winning Jurong GRC with a thumping 74.62 per cent. On the other side of the island, the PAP’s team led by Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean also won Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC with a comfortable 64.15 per cent of the vote in a three-cornered fight, while Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen’s team scored a 67.26 per cent victory in Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC.

But the runway for PAP stalwarts is short and the race is now on to find people who can take over and replace these popular politicians.

One possibility is Education Minister Ong Ye Kung, who sealed his status as a rising star in the party, taking Sembawang GRC with 67 per cent of the vote. It was his first time leading the team at Sembawang after Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan stepped down.

Will the PAP be able to unearth more of such gems?

WP SWAYS AT LEAST 40 PER CENT OF VOTERS

The WP was the biggest winner among the opposition slate. It kept its Aljunied GRC and Hougang single seat and grabbed Sengkang GRC, making more headway into the northeast of Singapore.

It also put up a strong showing in Marine Parade, with a team consisting of mostly first-timers winning 43 per cent of the vote against a team anchored by popular parliamentary speaker Tan Chuan-Jin.

Critically, its positioning as a credible and moderate opposition has made it a clear favourite among voters.

Opposition presence in Singapore parliament at record high with Workers’ Party win

In every ward that it contested, the WP managed to secure at least 40 per cent of the vote. Even in the Punggol West single-seat ward, the WP’s rookie Tan Chen Chen, a first-time candidate, secured 39.03 per cent of the vote against well-liked PAP MP Sun Xueling.

Its rise as the PAP’s main rival even resulted in Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong giving WP chief Pritam Singh the official title of Leader of the Opposition, noted Derek da Cunha in a Facebook post.

“I think that PM Lee calling up Pritam to tell him that he would be formally conferred the title of Leader of the Opposition and with resources is magnanimous of PM Lee. WP will be the Loyal Opposition,” he said.

SOME OPPOSITION MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS

But while voters turned to the opposition, it was clear that they were only willing to back recognisable faces and brands.

Apart from the WP, the Progress Singapore Party, founded by former PAP MP Tan Cheng Bock, also made inroads into many of the wards it contested in, despite fielding a host of first-time candidates.

It nearly snatched West Coast GRC with a team helmed by Tan himself, who took on a team with two cabinet ministers – S. Iswaran and Desmond Lee – and only lost by a sliver with about 48 per cent of the vote.

“So I think on average, we have done pretty well and I’d like to say that we will continue to work in the areas that we had stood in,” Tan said.

The Singapore Democratic Party also put in its best showing since the 1990s, with it Secretary-General Chee Soon Juan scoring 45.2 per cent against the PAP’s S. Murali in Bukit Batok, while SDP Chairman Paul Tambyah won 46.26 per cent of votes in Bukit Panjang.

But outside these recognisable faces, support for the opposition was much more lukewarm.

The Reform Party, led by Kenneth Jeyaretnam, was a clear example. It didn’t cross 30 per cent in the wards that it contested, an abysmal showing that was the result of a lack of organisation and the poor candidates that it had put out this election.

Likewise, upstart parties Red Dot United, People’s Voice and People’s Power Party all performed poorly – a clear signal that if the opposition is to grow, it will have to reduce the number of such parties in the future.