South China Sea: Duterte’s UN speech defending award wins praise – even from critics

Mounting domestic pressure led President Rodrigo Duterte to make his most strident defence yet of a 2016 arbitration ruling in favour of the Philippines’ claims in the South China Sea, one analyst has said, as critics of the leader welcomed his maiden speech before the UN General Assembly on Tuesday.

“The Award is now part of international law, beyond compromise and beyond the reach of passing governments to dilute, diminish or abandon,” Duterte said in a pre-recorded speech aired in New York on Tuesday.

“We firmly reject attempts to undermine it,” the leader said, without naming China. “We welcome the increasing number of states that have come in support of the award and what it stands for – the triumph of reason over rashness, of law over disorder, of amity over ambition.”

Detractors of Duterte praised the unexpected mention of the award and urged him to go further in securing international support, while one expert noted the speech came at a time the Philippines was facing critical domestic issues, such as the coronavirus pandemic and a perception Duterte had been leaning too far towards China.

Commending Duterte’s “strong stand”, retired supreme court justice Antonio Carpio said he hoped more action would follow “in the protection of our exclusive economic zone in the West Philippines Sea, in the negotiations for the Code of Conduct, and in gathering the support of the international community for the enforcement of the arbitral award”.

Albert del Rosario, a former foreign secretary and a frequent China critic, said Duterte should gather the support of more countries “so that the arbitral award will be raised more emphatically for the UN General Assembly 2021”.

Retired permanent UN representative Lauro Baja said that unlike Duterte’s usual speeches, “the president followed his script, and looked and sounded authentic – even presidential”.

The speech transformed Duterte “from a critic of the UN to an ardent advocate of its important role in world affairs”.

The challenge was now “how to keep the issue alive in the UN. Or else the statement will just find itself lost in the volumes of records of the organisation”, Baja said.

Collin S. Koh, research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said Duterte’s speech could help “silence critics” and divert attention from a host of domestic issues.

Those challenges included “alleged human rights violations, criticisms over the handling of the pandemic [and] the anti-terror law that critics allege would undermine freedoms and lead to power abuses”.

“Controversial policies that highlight Duterte’s friendliness towards Beijing – [such as] the decision to stick to deals with Chinese companies blacklisted by the US government for South China Sea projects, and the [agreement] … to build cell towers in military camps, leading to concerns about Chinese espionage – go against the consistently negative public perceptions towards China in the Philippine society,” Koh said.

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Earlier, foreign secretary Teodoro Locsin, Jnr, had rejected raising the arbitral win at the UN General Assembly.

“We will lose in the UN which is dominated by countries grateful to China for its indisputable generosity in development aid,” he said.

On Wednesday, Locsin said Duterte’s assertion showed the president was not an “alipin” (slave) of the US.

“He was alipin to the reality he inherited: a China already in possession of our reef thanks to [US President Barack] Obama giving it to China when our navy and the Chinese navy had a stand-off, and the US told both to stand down and leave,” Locsin said. “We left, China stayed and reclaimed [Scarborough].”

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Speaking from Beijing, Philippine ambassador Chito Sta. Romana said: “The president’s speech at the UN is an excellent articulation of the administration’s independent foreign policy.

“It reflects the strategic approach of supporting the UN at a time of escalating global tensions, upholding the rule of international law and the peaceful settlement of disputes,” he said.

“It also captures the administration’s policy of developing friendly relations with all countries while maintaining our principled position on issues of national sovereignty and sovereign rights.”

Koh, an expert on maritime security and geopolitics involving the South China Sea, said Duterte’s defence of the arbitral ruling was not likely to change the reality in the disputed sea, where Beijing already occupies seven reefs, mostly within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

“The crux of the problem is that China has already altered facts on the ground since the Scarborough Shoal incident in 2012,” Koh said, referring to China’s move to permanently station some ships there. “Duterte’s speech at the UN won’t compel Beijing to abandon those gains.”

In UN speech, Duterte defends South China Sea claims

While the speech may “irritate” Beijing, it was not likely to retaliate, Koh said.

In a meeting with Xi last year, Duterte had shelved the 2016 award “in favour of friendly ties with China, and for securing Beijing’s aid, investments and export market access”.

“After this speech, the Duterte administration is more than likely to stick to the pre-existing policy of engaging Beijing on multiple fronts, especially economic,” Koh said.

“The Duterte administration has ‘pressed the right buttons’ in signalling its desire for cordial ties with Beijing, such as … the directive to the Armed Forces to refrain from joining exercises with other parties beyond the 12-nautical mile territorial sea limit in the South China Sea, among others,” he said.

“Most importantly, Beijing wouldn’t see reason to retaliate since it knows it’s in an advantageous position – not just in terms of economic leverage, but also the fact that it has already staked out a permanent presence in the Philippine EEZ, especially the Mischief Reef outpost,” Koh said. “Its other maritime activities, including marine scientific and hydrographic survey missions, are largely unmolested by Philippine forces.”

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A senior Philippine government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak on the matter, said bilateral ties were likely “strong enough to withstand these differences”.

“These differences will not be an obstacle to further developing the friendship and cooperation between the two sides,” the official said.

China was “not likely” to retaliate since Duterte had already told Xi last year of the Philippines’ position on the arbitral award.

“They agreed to disagree,” the source said. “It will probably continue along the same line.”