Japan’s new defence minister Nobuo Kishi plans US trip, with Aegis on the agenda
- Kishi has reiterated the importance of Tokyo’s security alliance with Washington amid an ‘increasingly harsh national security environment’
- But analysts say he has limited experience in government and his initial exchanges with his American counterpart Mark Esper are likely to be limited in scope
Japan’s defence minister Nobuo Kishi has reiterated the importance of Tokyo’s alliance with Washington during the current “increasingly harsh national security environment”, saying that he will travel to the United States, potentially in October, for talks about the deployment of a ballistic missile defence shield.
Kishi, appointed on September 16, has in his early exchanges with the media come across as an aggressive advocate of the controversial Aegis Ashore anti-missile system and other issues that are at the core of Japan’s six-decade security pact with the US.
Analysts point out, however, that he has limited experience in government and his initial discussions with US defence secretary Mark Esper are likely to be limited in scope.
“Kishi is not particularly well known in Japanese politics, we do not know his attitude on many policies – and the general belief is that he was appointed as minister because his brother is [former prime minister] Shinzo Abe,” said Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.
“When he does go to the US, it is not clear how much he will be able to do to address the core issues, so it’s very possible that this first meeting may be more of a getting-to-know-you opportunity.”
Garren Mulloy, a professor of international relations at Daito Bunka University and an authority on regional security issues, said the first meeting between Kishi and Esper was likely to result in positive public commitments about the countries’ future relationship.
“I would think that the Japanese side would like this first meeting to be quite bland and the priority would be for it to go off without a hitch because Kishi is really quite inexperienced,” he said. “Meetings between the two defence ministers are obviously regular occurrences, but what is significant this time is that the security relationship is in a strange place at the moment [with the upcoming US presidential election and the recent change of administration in Tokyo].”
Mulloy said Japan’s previous defence minister, Taro Kono – whom new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga moved to the position of minister for administrative reform after he took power this month – was “a safe pair of hands” who had previously proved himself at the foreign ministry.
He added that Abe was “highly attuned” to international affairs and security issues to a degree that Suga was not, and pointed out that while Toshimitsu Motegi might have been retained as Suga’s foreign minister, a lot of his strengths were drawn from Abe and Kono.
“Kishi has never before held a cabinet position and there is little evidence that he has been prominent in defence or security panels within [the ruling Liberal Democratic Party], so I would have to question whether he will be able to talk with authority when he meets with Esper about Aegis Ashore, Japan developing a strike capability or other elements of the security relationship,” Mulloy said.
“And a word out of place – say about Japan deploying missiles to give it the capability of striking a target in another country – could seriously impact alliance policies and have a long-lasting effect.”
Kishi’s agenda is expected to prominently feature the US-developed Aegis anti-missile system. Tokyo in 2017 agreed to purchase and deploy two Aegis Ashore units, one designed to ward off an attack from North Korea and the other in the south of Japan to defend against the potential threat posed by China, but the deployment was dogged by errors and was eventually cancelled by former defence minister Kono after local people raised objections.
The Japanese government has a shortlist of three possible proposals – the costliest of which is to build more Aegis destroyers that can be deployed to the west of the Japanese archipelago. The other options are leasing commercial ships from the private sector and installing the system aboard them, or constructing floating platforms – similar to an oil rig – on which it can be deployed.
Mulloy said using commercial ships or floating platforms would be cheaper, but as neither would be capable of defending themselves against an attack, both options would require at least one more warship to be constantly on station to protect the Aegis system – a waste of money and resources at a time Japan’s armed forces are already stretched thin.
Analysts said Kishi was also likely to take up the issue of US forces stationed in Japan’s Okinawa prefecture, as well as progress on the construction of an enlarged US Marine base at Henoko. He has also said he intends to “think comprehensively” about whether Tokyo should acquire the ability to strike an enemy base if it is determined that an attack on Japan is imminent, an idea Abe put forward before he resigned on grounds of ill health last month.
Earlier this year, Japan and the US marked the 60th anniversary of the signing of the bilateral security treaty that is still in place today and serves as the cornerstone of Japan’s foreign and security policies.
On the Japanese side, that treaty – controversial at the time – was signed by then prime minister Nobusuke Kishi, the grandfather of Shinzo Abe and Nobuo Kishi, who was required to use a great deal of political capital to get the agreement through the Diet.
The current defence minister is seen as something of a hawk, whose political views were at least in part shaped by his grandfather, and analysts said he was likely to hold true to those tenets of 60 years ago.