Are Indonesia’s political dynasties back? Ask Jokowi’s son Gibran – or his son-in-law Bobby
- The Indonesian president once wowed voters by NOT hailing from a dynasty. Now some wonder if he’s starting one of his own
- Polls show Indonesians are fed up with dynasties, but as Gibran seeks the job that made his father, his family links may yet give him the edge
When Joko Widodo came to power in 2014 he broke the mould for Indonesian presidents. His surprise victory made him the first not to hail from one of the country’s political or military dynasties.
Fast forward six years, however, and the emergence of both his eldest son and son-in-law as candidates in looming nationwide local elections have prompted speculation the Widodo family may become a dynasty of its own.
Widodo’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 33, a culinary businessman, will on December 9 stand in the mayoral elections for the city of Solo in Central Java – the very same job that paved the way for his father’s political success. Meanwhile, Widodo’s son-in-law, Bobby Nasution, is also running for a mayoral seat, in North Sumatra.
Their candidacies come even as a Kompas Daily Research and Development Department survey in August found 61 per cent of Indonesians were “fed-up” with political dynasties.
As Muhammad Najih Arromadloni, a Muslim scholar and member of Nadhlatu Ulama, the country’s largest Muslim organisation, put it: “Political dynasties do not produce leaders of good quality.”
EXCEPTION TO THE RULE?
Analysts, however, believe Gibran’s family connections will be a plus. His father remains highly popular in Solo due to his track record and accomplishments as mayor of the city from 2005-2012.
“Gibran is the exception to the rule as his popularity is very much tied with that of his father,” said Alex Arifianto, a research fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University (NTU).
“I believe Gibran will ride on his dad’s coattails and easily win the mayoral election because of this.”
In Solo, a Javanese cultural heartland, Arif Sarifudin said Gibran would make a good mayor as he had good morals and upheld “the Javanese culture”.
Arif, 37, heads the Solo chapter of GP Ansor, the youth wing of the country’s largest Muslim organisation, Nahdlatul Ulama.
“As long as a person is good and capable, he should step forward as a candidate,” said Arif.
Nationwide, Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, remained “a very popular politician” with an approval rating averaging above 60 per cent in opinion polls, in spite of perceptions his administration had mishandled the coronavirus pandemic, said Arifianto.
Widodo’s coronavirus policy has been criticised by epidemiologists for leaning too heavily towards economic recovery rather than public health.
Gibran is running on a ticket with the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party Struggle (PDIP), his father’s party.
Arya Fernandes, a researcher from the Centre for Strategic International Studies, said Solo had long been a stronghold of the PDIP and its voters were loyal.
In 2019, PDIP won 30 out of 45 seats in Solo’s Legislative Council.
“Gibran is backed by all political parties in Solo except for PKS,” said Arya, referring to the Islamist People’s Justice Party.
His opponent was standing as an independent and was not seen as posing a strong challenge to Gibran as he did not have the same name recognition, Arya said.
There was no order, no pushing. This is purely my own choice
This year’s local polls will elect 270 regional leaders across the country comprising nine governors, 224 regents and 37 mayors.
More than 100 million people are eligible to vote in the single-day polls, which were originally slated for September 23 but postponed to December 9 due to the coronavirus outbreak.
A RELUCTANT POLITICIAN?
In speech, Gibran bears a striking resemblance to his father – polite, unassuming and inscrutable.
During an interview with Indonesian television journalist Najwa Shihab last week, he kept a poker face when asked whether he had been “ordered” or “pushed” by his father into politics.
“There was no order, no pushing. This is purely my own choice. I feel I am ready. I want to be of use to the people,” Gibran said.
Gibran said he planned to develop Solo’s economy. He said no one was compelled to vote for him and every one was “free to choose” whoever they wanted.
“If I win, Alhamdulilah [Thank God]. If I lose, I will just go back to my business. I have nothing to lose,” he added.
The eldest of three children, Gibran is married with one child. He spent many years studying overseas, firstly in Singapore at the Orchid Park Secondary School followed by the Management Development Institute of Singapore.
He furthered his studies at the University of Technology in Sydney, Australia.
After graduating, he returned home in 2010 and set up a catering business named Chilli Pari with money “borrowed from a bank” and not his father’s, local press reported. His business ventures include cafes selling martabak, a local pancake and e-commerce.
NEW GENERATION
Various family acts in this year’s polls have some analysts worried a new generation of political dynasties is emerging as the older generation pass the baton on to their children.
Both Jokowi and Gibran have dismissed claims of dynasty building. Meanwhile Nasution, who is also on a PDIP ticket, is seen as being more of an outside shot than Gibran as he faces an incumbent who has enjoyed a long career in Medan and already has a loyal pool of voters.
But there are plenty of other candidates hoping to keep things in the family too. Some that have grabbed headlines include the niece of Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, Rahayu Saraswati Djojohadikusumo, who is running for the deputy mayorship of South Tangerang.
The daughter of the country’s Vice-President Ma’aruf Amin, Siti Nur Azizah, will contest the post of mayor also in South Tangerang, Banten province.
From 2015 to 2018, 117 dynastic politicians were elected to regional leadership positions while 85 others lost. This was up from 39 at the end of 2013, according to Yoes C Kenawas, a visiting research fellow at the Institute of Public Policy at Atma Jaya Catholic University, in Indonesia.
Indonesians were tired of political dynasties as they equated them with corruption, misrule, and maladministration, said Arifianto.
“Voters associated dynasties with the notion of ‘keeping it all in the family’ and a lack of genuine electoral competition,” said Arifianto.
“Many local executives who formed dynasties have been indicted by the KPK [Anti-Corruption Commission] hence there is a strong feeling against dynastism since it is perceived as promoting corruption, preventing meritocracy in favour of cronyism, and a lack of genuine electoral choice,” Arifianto added.
However, Fernandes said that while the public disliked political dynasties, in several cases candidates from political families had won local elections due to weak competition.
“Sometimes the political dynasty [candidate] wins because [the family] has a good track record,” said Fernandes.
HOLDING ON TO POWER
For some prominent political figures, being replaced by a family member was a way of retaining power beyond their term limit and keeping “patronage flows to their coffers,” Arifianto said.
“Dynasties allow popular politicians to have an influence inside his or her region long after he or she loses eligibility for public office because of term limits,” he said.
“After the ruler has completed a 10-year term, he or she can easily transfer power to their spouse, children, son in laws, or whoever they trust within the family to keep the political enterprise going.”
Arifianto added that this meant politicians with large families had an advantage.
Last month, the country’s largest and second largest Muslim organisations, Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah, called for regional elections to be delayed until the Covid-19 situation improved, citing fears of large crowds gathering during the elections.
Indonesian Chief Security Minister Mahfud MD told local media that Widodo had listened to the views of many parties but reiterated elections would be held “so as to uphold the people’s constitutional right to vote for their regional representatives”.
Indonesia reported 4,294 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, taking the total number of infections in the Southeast Asian country to 328,952. It also reported 88 new deaths, bringing total fatalities to 11,765.
The Jakarta Post on Tuesday reported that three candidates running in the elections had died from Covid-19, two of them from East Kalimantan on Borneo Island and a third in the Bangka Belitung islands in Sumatra.
Given the pandemic, voter turnout was likely to be even lower than the usual 50-60 per cent, Arifianto said.
For many Indonesians, even those like Muhammad Najih who are sceptical of the merits of a dynastical system, it is the pandemic that may prove a greater concern.
Citing Covid-19, Najih said he would probably not vote in the election as this would be for “the greater good” of society.