An eye on China? Indonesia, Philippines set to boost ties amid ‘very volatile’ regional geopolitics

The Philippines and Indonesia would bolster their defence and security ties amid the region’s “very volatile” geopolitical dynamics, the two countries’ leaders said on Monday, emphasising the need for “inclusive and concrete” cooperation.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr is on a two-day visit to Indonesia from Sunday at the invitation of his Indonesian counterpart Joko Widodo. The trip is the Philippine leader’s first state visit since his landslide election victory in May.

An Indonesia analyst said the joint statement by the two leaders, while substantive on areas of planned cooperation, seemed to omit a key matter: whether they would work in tandem to deal with an increasingly assertive China.

During Monday’s talks, the leaders witnessed the signing of several key deals, including a renewal of the 1997 Agreement on Cooperative Activities in the Field of Defence and Security, and the Philippines-Indonesia Plan of Action which seeks to bolster economic ties in areas such as agriculture and energy for the next five years.

Jakarta and Manila also renewed their trilateral cooperative arrangement with Kuala Lumpur, a “very important” cooperation “in securing the waterways from the threat of hostage-taking and kidnapping”, Widodo said on Monday.

Indonesian government data showed some 44 Indonesians were kidnapped and held hostage by Abu Sayyaf militants in the Philippines between 2016 and 2019. Of these, one hostage died while the others were freed. Most were migrant workers abducted off Sabah on Malaysia’s eastern coast.

“We also spoke at length about the role that we believe Asean should play while we face difficulties, this very volatile time in geopolitics, not only in our region, but also in the rest of the world,” Marcos said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations regional bloc.

“We agreed that Asean is going to be the lead agent in the changes that we would like to see in continuing to bring peace to our countries.”

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Widodo reiterated Jakarta’s neutral stance as he underlined “the importance of implementing the Asean outlook on the Indo-Pacific through concrete and inclusive cooperation”.

“Indonesia wants to ensure that Asean continues to be the locomotive of stability, peace and prosperity in the region,” he said.

Jakarta and Manila also agreed to review border security arrangements, Widodo said. Indonesia’s foreign ministry earlier this year said both sides were committed to accelerating negotiations on the delimitation of the continental shelf and exclusive economic zones with two separate lines in the Celebes and Philippine seas.

It is unclear, however, whether both leaders discussed strategies to tackle “China’s arrogance in the South China Sea”, according to Teuku Rezasyah, an international relations expert from Padjadjaran University in Indonesia.

“I would like to think that the Philippines would share its knowledge with fellow Asean countries on how to win over China [in a territorial dispute case] at an international tribunal,” said Teuku, referring to Manila’s victory at the arbitral tribunal in The Hague that dismissed Beijing’s claim to much of South China Sea in 2016.

“Both Indonesia and the Philippines rejected China’s nine-dash line claim, and we are also dealing with China’s harsh actions in the South China Sea,” Teuku added.

“I think there should also be uniformity in perspective between the Philippines and Indonesia on how to deal with the Taiwan Strait crisis as a large number of their citizens are living in Taiwan, because if the crisis escalates, they would need to carry out an extraordinary rescue of their citizens.”

Seeking investments

During his visit, Marcos Jnr sought to secure investments from Southeast Asia’s largest economy, particularly in infrastructure projects. He also said increasing trade volume was “an important part” of bringing the Philippines out from “the difficulties” faced during the Covid-19 pandemic.

“I expressed my belief to President Widodo that this partnership between Indonesia and the Philippines, … will be of critical importance so that we remain stable as we grow out of the pandemic economy,” he said.

Indonesia’s trade volume with the Philippines this year “jumped nearly 50 per cent compared to last year’s volume”, with plans to do more, Widodo said.

Jakarta has also proposed revitalising a ferry line connecting the border cities of Bitung and Davao and opening a direct flight between Manado in eastern Indonesia and Davao in the southern Philippines to spur trade and their countries’ economies, he said.

Indonesia has traditionally been the first diplomatic port of call for new leaders in Asean. In 2016 Rodrigo Duterte chose Indonesia for his first state visit as Philippine president, while Malaysian’s Ismail Sabri Yaakob travelled to Jakarta in November 2021 for his first overseas trip as prime minister, underlining the country’s status as de facto leader in the region, said Teuku Rezasyah, the international relations expert.

Marcos also met Indonesian business leaders and members of the local Filipino community. He will visit Singapore on Tuesday and Wednesday to advance economic ties and sign pacts on security, counterterrorism and data privacy.

Additional reporting by Associated Press