Hong Kong public expects property prices to fall in coming year - survey

Hong Kong’s public views on property prices reversed for the first time since 2013, according to the latest survey, with 31 per cent of respondents predicting a fall versus 13.9 per cent for a rise in the coming year.

A majority 77.3 per cent of the 762 adults interviewed via phone by the Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong on September 21-24 indicated now is not an appropriate time to buy homes, and that 91.9 per cent regard current prices as too high.

A rising number of analysts are predicting an end to Hong Kong’s 12-year-long housing bull run as the economy slows and interest rate rises loom later in the year by the US Fed. For example, investment bank UBS said earlier this week the city would suffer a home price drop of up to 30 per cent from now to the end of 2017.

The survey found 37.5 per cent agreed that “if there is a rise in interest rate, property prices will go down regardless of the magnitude or frequency of the increase,” whereas 26.9 per cent reckoned that “even if there is a rise in interest rate, property prices will not go down because the magnitude and frequency of the increase will be mild.”

Asked about the impact of potential home supply increase in the coming three to four years, 45.5 per cent of the respondents said it cannot suppress property price rises, while only 14.5 per cent showed the opposite view.

Hong Kong’s housing chief said on Wednesday that the government expected housing land supply in the three quarters to December will be enough to build 88 per cent of its financial year target for new flats.

That will exert further downward pressure on short-term home prices, analysts said.