Hong Kong’s land supply has little to do with sky-high housing prices
Taking into account factors such as population growth and household size, the conclusion drawn is that Hong Kong does not have a land shortage, only an affordability problem
Are we short of suitable development land in Hong Kong: True or false?
Let’s start by looking at the relationship between our population figures past and present, and how that has been translated into demand, and then supply of housing. The figures quoted here are from official government sources, principally the Census & Statistics Department and Rating and Valuation Department.
By mid-year 2015 Hong Kong’s population was slightly over 7.3 million. By end of September 2015 there were 2.726 million permanent living quarters of all types in Hong Kong, which gives you an average household size of 2.68. If you allow for, say, a 4 per cent vacancy rate this figure would come up to 2.8.
The current stated average household size is given at 2.9, so on these figures alone you could argue that there already is, broadly speaking, a balance between supply and demand.
A full census is carried out every 10 years. In 2001, the population stood at 6.708 million which grew to 7.072 million in 2011 – an increase of 364,000 or 36,400 people per annum.
The growth from 2011 to 7.3 million equates to an increase of 252,000 over a 4 year period, or 63 000 per annum.