bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

articlePageQuery

filter

article

articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle

articleListArticle

articleSeoArticle

hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

hooksContentInterestArticle

articleLinkingDataContent

hooksAmpRedirectArticle

articleSchemaContent

liveArticle

advertZone

sentiment

contentLock

topics

types

sections

paywallTypes

createdDate

publishedDate

urlAlias

moreOnThisArticles

sponsorType

commentCount

authorLocations

authors

corrections

displaySlideShow

multimediaEmbed

printHeadline

seriesContainer

articleSpeeches

socialHeadline

headline

images

flag

firstTopic

glossary

flattenTypeIds

image

relatedLinks

relatedNewsletters

__typename

sponsor

pdfFiles

seriesReverseOrder

series

disableOffPlatformContent

published

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

body

keywords

readingTime

customTimezone

liveContents

Lam Ka-sing

The number of private homes built in Hong Kong last year beat the government’s target and hit a 14-year high, helping to bring a 28-month bull run in the city’s property market to a halt.
Figures released by the Transport and Housing Bureau on Friday showed that construction of 21,000 new houses was completed, well above the official target of 18,000.
The higher-than-expected supply will have brought some relief to the chronic housing shortage that has long underpinned the world’s least affordable housing market, analysts said.
Hong Kong has seen home prices slip by almost 10 per cent from a peak in August 2018 after a 15-year price rally as the increased supply, higher mortgage rates and a slowing economy have dampened demand.


Some analysts predict no let-up in the supply of new flats.
“This marked a 14-year high and the first time the number has surpassed the level of 20,000 in 14 years,” said Wong Leung-sing, senior associate director of research at Centaline Property Agency. “Future private housing supply will remain at about 20,000 for a long time.
“Now we see a ‘stable’ supply coming, the outlook for the housing market will depend on the demand, and that will be largely affected by the economic environment in Hong Kong and the global market. When the economy slows, home demand could be affected.”
Some 93,000 flats may become available in the next three to four years, including 9,000 that are already completed but not sold and 74,000 currently being built, according to the housing bureau.
The promising numbers would seem to support the view of many analysts that Hong Kong’s home prices will fall throughout 2019.
Nomura said home prices will drop by 7 per cent year on year, citing abundant supply from a variety of developers providing room for price cuts.
It was the fourth investment bank to correctly predict the market would lose steam last year.
“Most of the correction [will] be seen in the first half of this year and then [home price will] stay flat in the second half,” said Joyce Kwock, an analyst at Nomura in a report.
Analysts change their tune, forecast an up to 15 per cent increase in Hong Kong home prices this year
But the government figures came as many experts reviewed their initially gloomy forecasts for Hong Kong’s property prices in 2019. Analysts from CLSA, Citibank and Ricacorp Properties have now predicted home prices will reach a trough in March and then rise by up to 15 per cent by December.




CLSA said the low possibility of further interest-rate increases meant Hongkongers would turn to property investment. It does not expect to see a significant increase in home supply even though there was an overall rise in the number of completed units.
“Completion is more about the delivery. The supply is more about the new starts than the completion because completion lags behind the new starts. So the completion uptake right now reflects the new flats uptake two and a half years ago,” said Alvin Huang, an analyst at CLSA. “So that should not be a concern for home prices right now.”
Correction in Hong Kong’s property market gathers speed as prices fall 3.5 per cent in November
Ricacorp said the supply increase could be partially offset by fresh demand from new residents who no longer need to pay a 15 per cent tax on their purchase.
“There will be new demand in the market from ‘new Hongkongers’ who migrated to Hong Kong in 2012, when the buyer’s stamp duty was imposed on non-residents,” said Derek Chan, head of research at Ricacorp.
However, developers could be forced to price new projects in areas with a dense supply at a low premium to used homes nearby, said Leo Cheung, corporate development director of valuation and property management at Pruden Group.
“In some areas, such as Tai Po, Tuen Mun and Kai Tak, the high amount of new flats supply will cause pressure in sales and pricing,” Cheung said. “In the past, new projects were priced at a premium of 20 to 30 per cent to used flats nearby. This practice may not be supported by the market, given today’s sentiment.”
“


Hong Kong luxury flat sells for US$28.9 million in latest high-end property deal

Inside the Hong Kong house with columns like tree trunks and a canopy for a ceiling

Swire Properties sells 2 Deep Water Bay homes for US$283 million in biggest deal in years

Rebound in Hong Kong’s Central office market could be turning point

Hong Kong property

Hong Kong developers finished building 21,000 new homes last year, most in 14 years and ahead of official target

Figures from the Transport and Housing Bureau showed that construction of 21,000 new houses was completed, well above the official target of 18,000, Photo: Martin Chan

2018, Hong Kong’s second-best year for property sales at US$93 billion, ended with a whimper in December

The Central Horizon development by Billion Development and Project Management in Tai Po. The area, in Hong Kong’s New Territories, could be the next battleground for developers looking to attract buyers. Photo: Handout

China Evergrande targets modest sales growth for 2019 amid weak outlook for property market

Apartment blocks under construction on the outskirts of Beijing. The outlook for China’s property market has dimmed. Photo: Reuters

China developer’s net profit at Hong Kong’s old Kai Tak airport to lose altitude amid turbulence in property market

Potential buyers visit the sales office of One Kai Tak development at Exchange Tower in Kowloon Bay on August 25. Photo: Dickson Lee

Billionaire Ken Griffin sets US record for most expensive property with US$238 million New York penthouse

FILE - In this March 7, 2017 file photo, rowers paddle down the Charles River past the campus of Harvard University in Cambridge, Mass. A lawsuit alleging racial discrimination against Asian American applicants in Harvard's admissions process is heading to trial in Boston's federal court on Monday, Oct. 15, 2018. Harvard denies any discrimination, saying it considers race as one of many factors when considering applicants. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa, File)

DD37MT Waldorf Astoria Chicago (formerly, Elysian Hotel Chicago)

The 220 Central Park South building, center, stands in New York, U.S., on Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2019. Just days after buying one of the most expensive residential properties in London, Citadel founder Ken Griffin set a U.S. record with the $238 million penthouse at 220 Central Park South. Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg

Anne Dias-Griffin, founder of Aragon Global Management, and Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel Advisors, attend a gala for the Whitney Museum of American Art in New York, on October 23, 2013. Photo: Bloomberg

Cooling property market hits budget surplus as figures for 2019 set to be two-thirds down on last year’s, says Hong Kong financial secretary Paul Chan

A crane stands at a construction site at the former Kai Tak airport area in front of residential buildings in Hong Kong, China, on Saturday, July 21, 2018. Hong Kong's property market has a habit of humbling the bears, shattering predictions that the laws of gravity must eventually prevail. Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg

A man sits in front of sales listings displayed at a Hong Kong Property Services Agency Ltd. real estate agency in Hong Kong, China, on Saturday, July 21, 2018. Hong Kong's property market has a habit of humbling the bears, shattering predictions that the laws of gravity must eventually prevail. Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg

A group of men play Xiangqi, also called Chinese chess, in Hong Kong on December 18, 2018. (Photo by Anthony WALLACE / AFP)

Commuters walk between platforms in a Mass Transit Railway (MTR) station in Hong Kong on December 19, 2018. (Photo by Anthony WALLACE / AFP)

Financial Secretary Paul Chan speaking on ‘Voices from the Hall – Budget Consultation’, a RTHK programme, on Saturday morning. Photo: Xiaomei Chen

Property

Hong Kong & China

Business

Money

Wealth

Markets & Investing

Spending

Markets

News

Hong Kong

Hong Kong Economy

The higher-than-expected supply will have brought some relief to the chronic housing shortage that has long underpinned the world’s least affordable housing market, say analysts


Hong Kong developers finished building 21,000 new homes last year, most in 14 years and ahead of official target

.css-1mniedq{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;}The higher-than-expected supply will have brought some relief to the chronic housing shortage that has long underpinned the world’s least affordable housing market, say analysts

The higher-than-expected supply will have brought some relief to the chronic housing shortage that has long underpinned the world’s least affordable housing market, say analysts