https://www.scmp.com/rss/15688/feed David Zweig is chair professor of Social Science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology and managing director of Transnational China Consulting Limited. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is probably strutting around and feeling his oats, having accomplished several goals simultaneously with his decision to lift all unofficial constraints on US-Taiwan relations in effect as of 2021. No doubt he wanted to go out in glory, supporting those in the US Congress and US citizens who favour even stronger ties with Taiwan. Such a move, he hopes, will position him if he makes a run for the presidency in 2024. I am sure he also took great pleasure in poking... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3117905/us-china-relations-pompeos-bomb-throwing-taiwan-shift-leaves-biden?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3117905/us-china-relations-pompeos-bomb-throwing-taiwan-shift-leaves-biden?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 17 Jan 2021 17:00:08 +0000 In her recent policy address, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor proposed a programme to help young Hongkongers find jobs on the mainland. She asserted that her plan to spend HK$430 million (US$55.5 million) on the Greater Bay Area Youth Employment Scheme targets jobless youth – unemployment among 20-24 year-olds hit 19.7 per cent this year while the overall rate was 6.4 per cent. However, there’s an underlying purpose: by increasing their awareness of conditions on the mainland, Hong... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3114335/get-young-hongkongers-take-mainland-job-opportunities-build-trust?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3114335/get-young-hongkongers-take-mainland-job-opportunities-build-trust?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Dec 2020 22:45:08 +0000 In 2008, Li Yuanchao, then director of the Organisation Department of China’s Communist Party, established the Thousand Talents Plan. Li hoped to convince 2,000 of China’s best brains to take the plunge and return full-time to their motherland. Li hoped their return would liberalise China’s scientific establishment and create an “innovative society”. Unfortunately for Li, about 75 per cent of those willing to join the Thousand Talents Plan would only do so as “part-timers”, maintaining their... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3098673/how-china-can-show-us-its-thousand-talents-plan-has-nothing-hide?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3098673/how-china-can-show-us-its-thousand-talents-plan-has-nothing-hide?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 26 Aug 2020 00:45:08 +0000 A heated debate is raging across Canada. Should the Canadian government give in to China’s “hostage diplomacy” and release Meng Wanzhou, before a British Columbia court decides whether she should be extradited to the US to face charges of bank and wire fraud? Or should Canada defend its principles and, despite the incarceration of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor for more than 560 days, let the hearing go forward? I worked closely with Kovrig after he moved to Hong Kong, jointly briefing... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3091333/canadas-duty-lies-freeing-kovrig-and-spavor-china-means-letting?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3091333/canadas-duty-lies-freeing-kovrig-and-spavor-china-means-letting?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 Jul 2020 19:00:16 +0000 Many people believe that Beijing’s decision this week to introduce national security legislation for Hong Kong reflects a confident China that feels it has weathered Covid-19 and that, given the West’s distraction with its own virus crisis, now is the best time to act. I don’t see it that way. Over the past few months, the Western media have reported on the bevy of dangers facing China. These are the same dangers that those who say China is acting out of a sense of confidence, even hubris,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3086457/what-lies-behind-beijings-imposition-national-security-law-hong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3086457/what-lies-behind-beijings-imposition-national-security-law-hong?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 May 2020 22:30:07 +0000 It’s not so much that the West or the global economy has decided Hong Kong is no longer viable. It’s Beijing that has decided it would rather have a passive territory under its control than continue to live with the current level of opposition and unrest. From the arrests of 15 leading members of the pan-democratic camp and the rumours floating around about the enactment of national security and national anthem legislation, to the attempts to argue that mainland interference in Hong Kong’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3082121/beijing-getting-tough-democracy-movement-what-cost-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3082121/beijing-getting-tough-democracy-movement-what-cost-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 30 Apr 2020 22:15:13 +0000 What do Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor’s meetings with China’s top leaders in Shanghai mean for Hong Kong? Viewing those meetings with some scepticism is warranted on several fronts. First, while President Xi Jinping and Vice-Premier Han Zheng expressed full confidence in Lam and acknowledged the work she and her team had done to resolve the crisis in Hong Kong, no one here really shares that view. And why should we? Since the spring, we have watched as Lam’s extradition bill... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3037202/hong-kongs-protests-rage-xi-jinpings-meeting-carrie-lam-and-chinas?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3037202/hong-kongs-protests-rage-xi-jinpings-meeting-carrie-lam-and-chinas?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 12 Nov 2019 01:00:06 +0000 While Hong Kong’s political crisis is often seen as a major challenge to China’s leaders, a recent trip to Hunan province has brought home to me the Chinese state’s adeptness at turning the situation to its advantage. Given the Communist Party’s tight control over the media behind the Great Firewall, the Hong Kong narrative the party has created in the hearts and minds of Chinese citizens is basically: thank goodness I don’t live there. In fact, the violence in Hong Kong benefits... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/protest-violence-hong-kong-benefits-beijing-and-one-party-rule/article/3034416?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/protest-violence-hong-kong-benefits-beijing-and-one-party-rule/article/3034416?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 24 Oct 2019 10:34:55 +0000 While Hong Kong’s political crisis is often seen as a major challenge to China’s leaders, a recent trip to Hunan province has brought home to me the Chinese state’s adeptness at turning the situation to its advantage. Given the Communist Party’s tight control over the media behind the Great Firewall, the Hong Kong narrative the party has created in the hearts and minds of Chinese citizens is basically: thank goodness I don’t live there. In fact, the violence in Hong Kong benefits Beijing.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3034152/if-protest-violence-continues-hong-kong-only-winners-are-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3034152/if-protest-violence-continues-hong-kong-only-winners-are-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 24 Oct 2019 01:00:05 +0000 Hong Kong used to be so peaceful, which made us all proud. When relatives visited 15 years ago, I let my nephew and my daughter, both 12 years old, take a taxi from our home in Mid-Levels to Pacific Place on their own. All we asked was that my daughter call us on her mobile phone when she got there. My nephew, born and raised in Los Angeles, could not believe it. But now, violence is killing Hong Kong. Protesters, police and organised gangs have engaged in violence against each other, innocent... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026988/hong-kong-protesters-and-police-are-locked-circle-escalating?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026988/hong-kong-protesters-and-police-are-locked-circle-escalating?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 13 Sep 2019 21:30:08 +0000 Sometime around June 4, 1989, rumours circulated that Deng Xiaoping had said that 200 lives were a small price for China to pay for 20 years of stability. While China clearly did not gain 20 years of stability, the case can be made that, in retrospect, by allowing the purge of the entire liberal wing of the Communist Party, June 4 brought “great unity” to that leadership, which has facilitated China’s rise to great-power status. The decade of the 1980s was intellectually vibrant. China was... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3012616/why-tiananmen-squares-real-legacy-may-be-communist-party-unity-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3012616/why-tiananmen-squares-real-legacy-may-be-communist-party-unity-and?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 03 Jun 2019 01:00:10 +0000 The year 2013 was a critical year in China’s development. At the Central Committee third plenum in November, President Xi Jinping’s new administration promised to dramatically marketise China’s economy. However, in August that year, the Chinese Academy of Engineering had begun research on an alternative model, “Made in China 2025”. The fact that this industrial plan has superseded the 2013 reform programme has enormous implications for China and its relations with the world.  At the 14th party... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3006942/china-counts-costs-its-lurch-market-reform-made-china-2025?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3006942/china-counts-costs-its-lurch-market-reform-made-china-2025?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 21 Apr 2019 19:00:05 +0000 President Xi Jinping’s trip to Italy is a major political and economic coup. Italy is the first Group of 7 country to buy into the “Belt and Road Initiative”, a main piece of the current Chinese leadership’s foreign policy strategy that clearly demonstrates the power of China’s purse. Italy needs money for infrastructure upgrading and Xi has pockets full of cash that he is willing to use. In return, Italy is, to a certain extent, turning its back on the United States and the European Union. Xi... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/3002778/xi-jinping-comes-knocking-italy-europe?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/3002778/xi-jinping-comes-knocking-italy-europe?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:00:06 +0000 We have just entered the Year of the Pig, an excellent moment to reflect on where China and Hong Kong were 12 years ago in 2007 – the year last dedicated to the same zodiac animal – and their current circumstances. Back then, Xi Jinping had just become the Politburo Standing Committee’s sixth-ranking member, implying he would succeed Hu Jintao as China’s pre-eminent leader in 2012. We now know that Xi defeated Li Keqiang in a straw vote by around 400 top leaders in June 2007 to determine the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2187078/year-pig-throwback-how-much-has-changed-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2187078/year-pig-throwback-how-much-has-changed-china?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 21 Feb 2019 23:01:17 +0000 There are legal, political and technological facets to the Huawei incident that bear further examination. Sabrina Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of the Chinese electronics company, was arrested in Canada in December on fraud charges involving United States sanctions on Iran. From a legal perspective, it must be noted that the case is not that Huawei allegedly used a subsidiary to skirt US sanctions on selling US technology to Iran.  If that were the case, the argument of Columbia... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/david-zweig-us-case-against-meng-stronger-chinas-case-against-canadians/article/2180483?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/david-zweig-us-case-against-meng-stronger-chinas-case-against-canadians/article/2180483?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Jan 2019 09:15:08 +0000 There are legal, political and technological facets to the Huawei incident that bear further examination. Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of the Chinese electronics company, was arrested in Canada in December on fraud charges involving United States sanctions on Iran. From a legal perspective, it must be noted that the case is not that Huawei allegedly used a subsidiary to skirt US sanctions on selling US technology to Iran. If that were the case, the argument of Columbia University... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2180354/huawei-tit-tat-us-may-have-better-case-against?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2180354/huawei-tit-tat-us-may-have-better-case-against?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 02 Jan 2019 17:00:00 +0000 In the run-up to the anniversary of China’s reform and opening up this December, commentators have been assessing the country’s foreign policy over these past 40 years, including the Chinese leadership’s decision, circa 2009, to gradually replace Deng Xiaoping’s strategy of “lying low” until China was fully prepared to challenge the US. The massive economic blow suffered by America due to the 2008 global financial crisis emboldened some Chinese to argue that the time had arrived for China to be... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2169277/not-just-containment-americas-real-goal-may-be?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2169277/not-just-containment-americas-real-goal-may-be?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 19 Oct 2018 19:00:45 +0000 The number of Chinese students returning from abroad has grown by leaps and bounds. In 2017, 608,000 students went abroad and 480,900 returned. China is proud of a return rate of 79 per cent; in 1987, the return rate was about 5 per cent, and in 2007 only 30.6 per cent. Why this turnaround? Many students today are not committed to staying abroad. The largest group of students going out and coming back have been candidates for an MA degree – in 2015, 80.5 per cent of returnees were MA students –... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2157081/how-chinese-students-who-return-home-after-studying?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2157081/how-chinese-students-who-return-home-after-studying?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Jul 2018 07:00:45 +0000 Are there grounds for optimism on the Korean peninsula? Looking back at how the players, particularly Kim Jong-un, supreme leader of North Korea, got to where they are may yield mild optimism and some grounds for hope.  One view is that the young Kim feared for his regime, if not his life, and realised that US President Donald Trump was on the verge of wielding a mighty sword against his regime. According to a political analyst from China, United Nations secretary general António Guterres sent... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2146034/why-insecure-kim-jong-un-now-needs-gentle-hand-not-tough?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2146034/why-insecure-kim-jong-un-now-needs-gentle-hand-not-tough?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 14 May 2018 10:00:00 +0000 Many critics around the world have decried the recent lifting of term limits on the Chinese presidency, asserting that it reflects a hunger for more political power. Yet the pro-China camp, in Hong Kong and Beijing, argues that power begets change and that, without more centralised power, it would be impossible to get the bureaucracy to budge. Their explanation highlights President Xi Jinping’s selflessness as a leader for whom power is only a tool to reform China and reassert the country’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2138140/xi-jinping-has-consolidated-power-china-still-waiting?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2138140/xi-jinping-has-consolidated-power-china-still-waiting?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 Mar 2018 10:00:45 +0000 In the view of President Donald Trump, Kim Jong-un is “a pretty smart guy”. In April 2017, Trump said: “At a very young age, he was able to assume power. A lot of people, I’m sure, tried to take that power away, whether it was his uncle or anybody else. And he was able to do it. So obviously, he’s a pretty smart cookie.” So Trump should not have been surprised when Kim, after a year of sabre-rattling, carried out an “Olympic overture” by asking to attend the Pyeongchang Olympics in South Korea.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2128612/does-north-koreas-olympic-overture-prelude-talks-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2128612/does-north-koreas-olympic-overture-prelude-talks-us?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 17 Jan 2018 07:43:54 +0000 We have entered the “third era” of the history of the Chinese Communist Party and “New China”. That is the historical construct that Xi Jinping and the party have presented as a way to understand the 19th party congress and the next 15-30 years of China’s development. But what exactly do they mean by a “new era”? What are the common characteristics of these three eras and what can they tell us about China’s path forward? The three eras share three common themes: first, opponents of the dominant... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2116902/new-era-dawns-xi-jinpings-china-what-will-it-mean-rest-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2116902/new-era-dawns-xi-jinpings-china-what-will-it-mean-rest-world?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 Oct 2017 06:15:15 +0000 China’s rise within an international system dominated by the US has dramatic implications for all of East Asia. Unlike during the cold war, when states had to choose between the United States and the Soviet Union, most countries in East Asia today find themselves as the third corner of a triangular relationship between themselves, the US and China. How they balance those ties will greatly affect the shape of the region in the coming years. The American corner exudes military strength, as the US... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2104512/chinas-cash-and-american-troops-are-inspiring-fine-balancing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2104512/chinas-cash-and-american-troops-are-inspiring-fine-balancing?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 30 Jul 2017 08:32:55 +0000 As we look towards the rather bland, preordained chief executive election this Sunday in Hong Kong, let’s think about the election we could be having. Had the pan-democratic camp accepted Beijing’s constrained electoral system set out on August 31, 2014, this election would have been far more competitive, popular attention much stronger, the candidates’ links to the citizenry much closer, the extent of democracy deeper, and the potential impact for Hong Kong and China so much greater. Beijing... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2081575/chief-executive-election-hong-kong-could-have-had?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2081575/chief-executive-election-hong-kong-could-have-had?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 24 Mar 2017 02:42:08 +0000 Last spring, as we contemplated possible outcomes of the pending political events, including a potential occupation of central Hong Kong, one scenario circulating was that Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying might benefit from a potential political crisis. The events surrounding last week's policy address, including Leung's recent visit to Beijing, and the tone of the address itself, show that the big winner of Occupy Central was Leung himself. Last summer, and particularly in the early days of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1681900/veto-2017-political-reform-will-bolster-leung-chun-yings?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1681900/veto-2017-political-reform-will-bolster-leung-chun-yings?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Jan 2015 09:20:41 +0000 Some observers explain that the very restrictive nomination process for universal suffrage in 2017 directed by the National People's Congress Standing Committee was driven by the Communist Party's fear of losing power in Hong Kong and the demonstration effect on Chinese society. However, an alternative explanation is Beijing's worries about national security. In the eyes of many Chinese government and party officials, "civic" nomination and a low threshold (under 15 per cent) for the nominating... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1599574/how-chinas-very-real-national-security-fears-shaped-its-reform-plan-hong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1599574/how-chinas-very-real-national-security-fears-shaped-its-reform-plan-hong?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Sep 2014 09:45:30 +0000 The strongest criticism of the Communist Party's third plenum in the West, and even from within China, has been over the lack of political reform. Yao Yang, dean of the National School of Development and director of the China Centre for Economic Research at Peking University, made the point in this newspaper last month that without political reform, how far could China's economic liberalisation go? Other liberal voices in China raise similar concerns. But whether one sees this plenum initiating... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1385763/chinas-curbs-local-government-powers-wont-be-enough-stop?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1385763/chinas-curbs-local-government-powers-wont-be-enough-stop?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 19 Dec 2013 03:30:15 +0000 Since the recent Legislative Council election is now history, we should look to the future to see whether the road for Hong Kong's democratic process looks smooth or rocky. There are many problems on the horizon. They arise largely due to the broad support for democratisation expressed by the people of Hong Kong and the unsure attitude towards that process on the mainland. Despite predictions that support in the Legco poll for the pan-democrats would fall to under 50 per cent, the final vote... https://www.scmp.com/article/658486/recession-will-rekindle-democracy-issue?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/658486/recession-will-rekindle-democracy-issue?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Oct 2008 16:00:00 +0000 I guess I just don't get it. Why are the democratic camp and the foreign media so negative about the National People's Congress Standing Committee's decision to reject universal suffrage for 2012 but allow it for 2017? Why are the democrats mobilising for more protest marches rather than celebrating their victory? On Saturday, the world's largest authoritarian government announced it was going to allow the equivalent of a provincial government to directly elect its governor. To me, that is a... https://www.scmp.com/article/621383/giant-step?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/621383/giant-step?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 01 Jan 2008 16:00:00 +0000