Andrew Mullen - South China Morning Post

China’s export boom not bust despite November deceleration: 5 takeaways

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 16:00:21 +0000

1. Exports decline just a blip China’s export growth slowed in November, missing expectations and growing by 6.7 per cent year on year to US$312.31 billion. Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, estimated that growth in export volumes also slowed sharply, and after accounting for changes in export prices and for seasonality, he estimated that export volumes also softened. “Export growth slowed sharply last month, but we doubt this signals the end of China’s recent export boom,”...

China’s ‘persistent’ deflationary pressure remains: 4 takeaways from November’s data

Mon, 09 Dec 2024 16:00:08 +0000

1. Vegetable, fruit prices ease upwards pressure on inflation China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell short of expectations and rose by 0.2 per cent year on year in November, slowing from a 0.3 per cent increase in October to hit a five-month low. Analysts attributed the modest decline mainly to further normalisation of fresh vegetable and fruits prices in the wake of supply disruptions in prior months. “Headline CPI fell, but this was mainly driven by easing upwards pressure on food prices,”...

China’s economic recovery gathers pace, led by manufacturing, but risks remain

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 16:00:08 +0000

1. Manufacturing improvement ‘broad-based’ China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a survey of sentiment among factory owners – rose to 50.3 in November compared with October’s reading of 50.1. The gauge hit a seven-month high and remained above 50 - which separates expansion from contraction - on a monthly basis. The index had contracted for five straight months before October. The manufacturing export order subindex rose to 48.1 in November, compared with 47.3 in...

‘Little room for complacency’: 6 takeaways from China’s October economic data

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 11:30:08 +0000

1. Retail sales hit eight-month high China’s retail sales increased by 4.8 per cent year on year last month, compared with the 3.2 per cent growth in September, marking the highest level since February. The reading beat expectations of 3.9 per cent growth projected by economists polled by Chinese financial data provider Wind. “China’s economy improved further at the start of the fourth quarter, thanks to stronger-than-expected consumer spending,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital...

‘Deflationary pressure remains’ for China: 4 takeaways from October’s inflation data

Mon, 11 Nov 2024 03:57:38 +0000

1. Consumer inflation remains soft China’s consumer price index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation, rose by 0.3 per cent year on year last month, slowing from an increase of 0.4 per cent in September. The reading fell short of the 0.42 per cent growth projected by economists polled by Chinese financial data provider Wind and was the slowest growth in four months. “The dip in the CPI inflation reading was mostly a result of food and energy price inflation,” said analysts at Nomura. “In sequential...

China exports surge, but trade war escalation looms: 5 takeaways from October trade data

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 16:00:08 +0000

1. Exports post fastest growth since July 2022 China’s exports beat expectations and hit a 27-month high in October after rising by 12.7 per cent, year on year, to US$309 billion. “Export values grew, year on year, at the fastest pace in more than two years, and export volumes picked up too,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics. But Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the better-than-expected export growth “may partly be driven by...

China’s stimulus seems to be trickling through, but is it too early to tell?

Tue, 05 Nov 2024 16:00:08 +0000

1. Manufacturing ‘bucks’ expectations China’s manufacturing sector showed broad improvement in October, with the impact of Beijing’s stimulus drive seemingly becoming felt. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a survey of sentiment among factory owners – beat expectations and ended five straight months of contraction by rising to 50.1 in October, compared to September’s reading of 49.8. Readings above 50 indicate expansion on a monthly basis, while one below 50 suggests...

C919 manufacturer expands footprint with Hong Kong office, maintenance deal

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 10:28:57 +0000

China’s leading aircraft manufacturer opened its second office outside mainland China in the space of three days this week, as the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) appears poised to expand its footprint in the global aviation market. Having opened its Asia-Pacific office in Singapore on Monday, Comac confirmed on Thursday that it had opened a customer service office in Hong Kong on Wednesday. State-owned Comac is the manufacturer of China’s home-grown C919 narrowbody airliner and...

China’s economy saw its slowest growth in more than a year. Can it still hit its target?

Mon, 21 Oct 2024 06:00:14 +0000

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now! China’s economic-growth figures, it could be argued, are probably the most closely watched in the world. From quarterly data to the annual GDP, markets and investors wait with bated breath in advance of headline figures from Beijing’s statistical boffins. And in the third quarter of this year, anticipation over how the world’s...

Is China still within striking distance of its full-year growth target?

Fri, 18 Oct 2024 16:00:07 +0000

1. Growth target ‘difficult to achieve’ China’s economy grew by 4.6 per cent in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, with the growth rate the lowest since the middle of last year. The gross domestic product growth figure was largely in line with the 4.58 per cent projected by economists surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind, and below the 4.7 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter. “While it is a marginal decline from the second quarter, it makes the official growth...

7 takeaways from China’s trade, inflation data in September

Mon, 14 Oct 2024 16:00:15 +0000

1. Export growth softens The value of China’s exports grew by 2.4 per cent, year on year, to US$303.71 billion in September. The figure was lower than the expected 6.18 per cent increase surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind and fell short of the 8.7 per cent rise recorded in August. “Export growth slowed last month but remained resilient, with volumes still rising at a double-digit pace,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics. “We think shipments will stay strong in...

As China’s ‘shock and awe’ strategy simmers: 4 takeaways from September’s PMIs

Mon, 30 Sep 2024 16:00:11 +0000

1. Manufacturing hits 5-month high, but activity remains subdued China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a survey of sentiment among factory owners – rose to a five-month high of 49.8 in September, compared with August’s reading of 49.1. It exceeded the expected reading of 49.5 predicted by economists polled by Bloomberg but remained in contractionary territory for the fifth consecutive month, “signalling still-subdued factory activity”, according to analysts. A reading...

7 takeaways from China’s most significant stimulus package since the pandemic

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 16:00:11 +0000

People’s Bank of China governor Pan Gongsheng, minister of the National Administration of Financial Regulation Li Yunze and China Securities Regulatory Commission chairman Wu Qing held a joint press conference in Beijing on Tuesday. The slew of measures announced were “bold by historical standards”, analysts said, as they represented the first time the central bank had offered a combination of rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural monetary policies at the same...

China’s ‘time running out’ to meet economic growth target as August figures falter

Mon, 23 Sep 2024 06:00:12 +0000

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now! September had, seemingly, started somewhat well for China’s economy as trade data for August showed its signature exports grew at their fastest pace in 17 months. But after President Xi Jinping had subtly toned down China’s focus on achieving its annual economic growth goals this year, disappointing data for August led...

Where now for China after economy lost momentum ‘across the board’ in August?

Mon, 16 Sep 2024 16:00:10 +0000

China released key economic data for August on Saturday, including key retail sales and investment figures, having a day earlier published new bank lending figures. 1. Household spending remains cautious as retail sales growth dips Retail sales in China, a key gauge of consumption, rose in August by 2.1 per cent, year on year, after registering 2.7 per cent growth in July. The reading fell short of the 2.68 per cent projected by Chinese financial data provider Wind and barely managed to avoid...

Can China’s export momentum last? 5 takeaways from August trade data

Tue, 10 Sep 2024 16:00:09 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Exports buck trend, hit 17-month high China’s exports rose 8.7 per cent from a year earlier to US$308.65 billion in August, beating the expected increase of 7.04 per cent surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind, and topping the 7 per cent increase in July. Year-on-year export values in August grew at the fastest pace in 17 months, and export volumes hit record highs, according to Zichun Huang, China...

Will weak demand continue in China?: 4 takeaways from August’s inflation data

Mon, 09 Sep 2024 16:00:18 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Food reflation lifts CPI China’s consumer price index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation, grew by 0.6 per cent year on year in August, compared to an increase of 0.5 per cent in July, with analysts attributing the improvement to food reflation. The overall CPI reading fell short of the expected 0.71 per cent growth projected by economists polled by Chinese financial data provider Wind. Vegetable prices rose by over 20...

China’s economy faces challenges even as it ‘holds steady’: 4 takeaways from August’s PMIs

Wed, 04 Sep 2024 16:00:07 +0000

1. Mixed manufacturing message China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) slipped to a six-month low of 49.1 in August, down from a reading of 49.4 in July. The survey of sentiment among factory owners fell short of a survey by Bloomberg. A reading above 50 typically indicates an expansion of economic activity, whereas a reading below implies a contraction. But the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI – which mostly covers smaller, export-oriented firms - rose to 50.4 in...

Trade, inflation data offers hope for China’s economy, but there is still a long way to go

Mon, 12 Aug 2024 06:00:16 +0000

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now! China has, for quite some time, been struggling to find a way to boost domestic demand. Exports will, it is expected, provide a pillar for China as they have in the past, but getting people inside the country to part with their hard-earned cash has long troubled officials in Beijing. A much-touted trade-in scheme has not yet...

China inflation surprise ‘not a recovery in final demand’: 4 takeaways from July’s data

Fri, 09 Aug 2024 15:30:08 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. CPI’s surprise rebounds amid smaller drag from food China’s consumer price index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation, grew in July by 0.5 per cent, year on year, after rising by 0.2 per cent in June, with analysts pointing to how food inflation snapped a 12-month streak of negative inflation to offset a slight dip in non-food inflation that pushed the overall CPI to a five-month high. The overall CPI reading beat the...

China’s trade ‘unevenness likely to continue’ as July data offers mixed bag

Wed, 07 Aug 2024 16:00:18 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Exports fall short as demand fades China’s exports, a major economic growth engine in the first half of the year, missed expectations and grew by only 7 per cent in July from a year earlier, to US$300.56 billion. Analysts pointed to the impact of lower prices and some fading of global discretionary demand as the reading fell short of the expected growth of 9.5 per cent surveyed by Chinese financial data provider...

Is support coming at the right time for China’s economy? 4 takeaways from July’s PMI data

Mon, 05 Aug 2024 16:00:08 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Weak domestic demand drags manufacturing The sight of China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and its Caixin/S&P Global counterpart falling in July led analysts to suggest the third quarter was off to a poor start. China’s official manufacturing PMI – a survey of sentiment among factory owners – stood at 49.4 in July, down from a reading of 49.5 in June, in line with a forecast of analysts...

China’s factory activity contracts for third straight month, but ‘silver lining’ emerges

Wed, 31 Jul 2024 01:38:53 +0000

Factory activity in China remained in contraction for a third consecutive month in July, suggesting that the economy weakened further, but analysts expect a recovery in the coming months with Beijing “intent on ramping up policy support”. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a survey of sentiment among factory owners – stood at 49.4 in July, down from a reading of 49.5 in June, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday, in line with a forecast of analysts...

Promises abound of deepened reform, but what did China’s third plenum tell us?

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 06:00:15 +0000

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now! The communique released summarising China’s third plenum – one of several gatherings of the Communist Party’s elite Central Committee – was seen as seeking a delicate balance between growth and security in the face of mounting uncertainties. It was released at the end of the four-day session, typically an occasion for the...

More bumps on China’s road to 5% economic growth in 2024: 7 data takeaways

Mon, 15 Jul 2024 16:00:15 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. GDP slows, but not yet a renewed downturn China’s economy grew by 4.7 per cent in the second quarter compared to a year earlier – “well below expectations” per analysts – after recording 5.3 per cent growth in the first quarter. In the first half of the year, China’s gross domestic product grew by 5 per cent year on year, “which keeps China still on pace to achieve its 5 per cent GDP growth target for now”, said Lynn...

China’s exports surge, but sustainability questioned: 5 takeaways from June’s trade data

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 16:00:10 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Exports stronger than expected at start of year China’s exports rose by 8.6 per cent from a year earlier to US$307.85 billion in June, according to customs data released on Friday. The reading beat the expected rise of 7.44 per cent surveyed by Chinese financial data provider Wind, and was better than the 7.6 per cent increase recorded in May. “After accounting for changes in export prices and for seasonality, we...

China’s consumer inflation edges down, but ‘upside’ around the corner: 4 takeaways from June

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 16:00:10 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Inflation remains suppressed China’s consumer price index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation, grew in June by 0.2 per cent, year on year, edging down to a three-month low following an increase of 0.3 per cent in May, though the gauge remained in positive territory for the fifth consecutive month The reading fell short of expectations, with analysts at Capital Economics pointing to deepening food-price deflation. “Pork...

Did China’s economy ‘lose some momentum’ in June?: 4 takeaways from PMI data

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 16:00:13 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Manufacturing activity unchanged Analysts said China’s factory activity was largely unchanged in June despite the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) remaining in contraction for a second consecutive month. The gauge – a survey of sentiment among factory owners – stood at 49.5 in June, unchanged from May. Within the official manufacturing data, the new export order subindex also remained unchanged...

China eyes tech and economic goals for at third plenum, but few drastic changes expected

Tue, 02 Jul 2024 06:00:14 +0000

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now! China’s elite will assemble in Beijing next month for the long-awaited third plenum, which comes at a time of much turmoil for the world’s second-largest economy. With this in mind, Beijing set the tone for the long-anticipated conclave by presenting ambitious economic and tech development goals for the next decade. The...

China’s factory activity contracts for second straight month

Sun, 30 Jun 2024 03:16:27 +0000

Factory activity in China remained in contraction for a second consecutive month in June, adding to difficulties facing the world’s second-largest economy ahead of next month’s key third plenum. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) – a survey of sentiment among factory owners – stood at 49.5 in June, unchanged from May, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Sunday. Within the official manufacturing, the new manufacturing export order...

China’s exports set to ‘defy’ tariffs: 5 takeaways from May trade data as shipments rose

Fri, 07 Jun 2024 16:00:16 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Surging exports set to defy tariffs China’s exports beat expectations and rose by 7.6 per cent from a year earlier to US$302.4 billion in May. Analysts at Capital Economics said China’s export values rose at the fastest year-on-year pace since April 2023, with export volumes also picking up. “We think exports will remain strong in the coming months, defying the expansion of Western tariffs,” they said. Junyu Tan, a...

China’s exports surge in May, boosted by Asean, but US and EU tariff headwinds cloud outlook

Fri, 07 Jun 2024 12:00:09 +0000

China’s exports remain under increasing pressure from intensifying trade frictions and looming tariffs from the United States and European Union, analysts said, despite shipments having accelerated in May for a second consecutive month – partly due to a surge in demand from Southeast Asia. Exports beat expectations and rose by 7.6 per cent from a year earlier to US$302.4 billion in May, the highest monthly export value since September, according to customs data released on Friday. The...

Warning sign for China’s economic growth? 4 takeaways from May’s PMI data

Wed, 05 Jun 2024 16:00:11 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Impact of new US tariffs already being felt? China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell below expectations to a three-month low of 49.5 in May, down from April’s reading of 50.4. “This was largely driven by a decline in the output component, though new orders and export orders also softened. The latter may point to near-term declines in exports, but it is more likely to reflect sentiment...

China’s C919 passenger jet marks first anniversary of commercial flights: 13 key moments from year 1

Mon, 27 May 2024 14:00:14 +0000

The C919 – China’s home-grown, narrowbody passenger jet – is designed to carry between 158 and 192 passengers and compete with Boeing’s 737 and Airbus’ A320. It is built by the Shanghai-based state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac). The C919 completed its first commercial flight at the end of May 2023 after 15 years of development. 1. Maiden commercial flight (May 2023) The C919 completed its first commercial flight between Shanghai and Beijing on May 28, 2023. Bearing the...

China’s April economic data delivers ‘mixed bag’: 6 takeaways as property slump drags on

Fri, 17 May 2024 16:00:09 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Retail sales ‘broadly stagnant’ China’s retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, rose by 2.3 per cent year on year in April, compared with the 3.1 per cent growth seen in March. “Domestic demand looks to have softened, with growth in retail sales cooling from 3.1 per cent year on year in March to 2.3 per cent, well below expectations and consistent with sales being broadly stagnant in levels terms,” said analysts at...

Will ‘golden times’ return for China? Analysts, observers and military personnel have their say

Tue, 14 May 2024 06:00:10 +0000

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world. Sign up now! The series kicked off with political scientist Li Cheng, founding director of the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World, saying that tensions between China and the US would be “with us for a long time”. Li said it would likely take between 10 and 15 years for China and the US to return to the...

China trade: 5 takeaways from April as exports show ‘green shoots’ of recovery, but domestic demand key

Thu, 09 May 2024 16:00:33 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Exports show revival China’s exports rose by 1.5 per cent from a year earlier to US$292.5 billion in April, compared to a 7.5 per cent decline in March. “Export values returned to growth from contraction last month, but this was mainly due to a lower base for comparison. Export volumes were little changed from March,” said analysts at Capital Economics. China exports in April were boosted by exports to emerging...

China’s economic recovery maintains momentum, but risks remain: 4 takeaways from April’s manufacturing, services data

Mon, 06 May 2024 16:00:09 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Manufacturing recovery consolidates, but underlying issues remain China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) remained in expansion territory for a second straight month in April, although the growth slowed slightly compared to March, with analysts pointing to underlying subindices pointing to persisting supply-demand imbalances and lingering deflationary pressures. The gauge – a survey of...

China GDP: first-quarter growth ‘smashes’ expectations, but has Beijing put too many eggs in its basket?

Tue, 16 Apr 2024 23:00:53 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. GDP ‘smashed’ expectations in first quarter China’s economy grew by 5.3 per cent in the first quarter year on year, beating expectations. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first three months of the year “smashed” market expectations, according to Harry Murphy Cruise, economist at Moody’s Analytics. “After a shaky start, China’s economy slowly found its footing in the first quarter. The 5.3 per cent year...

China trade: 5 takeaways from March data as exports tumbled, but ‘reasonable story about external demand’ appears

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 16:00:30 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Exports tumble in March, but first quarter shows a ‘reasonable story about external demand’ China’s exports declined by 7.5 per cent from a year earlier in March to US$279.7 billion, falling short of expectations and in sharp contrast to the 7.1 per cent growth in combined figures for January and February. “This was mostly due to a higher base for comparison export values, [which] surged 10.9 per cent year on year in...

China’s low inflation set to be ‘long-term phenomenon’: 4 takeaways from March’s data

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 16:00:21 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Risk of deflation remains as CPI drops China’s consumer price index (CPI) grew by 0.1 per cent year on year in March, lower than the average 0.3 per cent estimate from economists polled by Chinese financial data provider Wind and still well below the 2024 inflation target of 3 per cent. The CPI index had marked a first rise in six months in February, having expanded by 0.7 per cent. “China’s CPI inflation dropped to...

Can the green shoots of China’s economic recovery be sustained? 4 takeaways from March’s manufacturing, services data

Wed, 03 Apr 2024 16:00:14 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. ‘Substantial’ manufacturing increase China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) returned to expansion in March, hitting a one-year high of 50.8, up from 49.1 in February. The figure beat market estimates of 49.9 and landed above the watershed level of 50, an indication of expanding activity ending five consecutive months of contraction. The reading was the highest since March last year, when the...

China’s economy rebounds, but do mixed signals mean it will be short-lived? 6 takeaways from January-February data

Mon, 18 Mar 2024 16:00:12 +0000

If you would like to see more of our reporting, please consider subscribing. 1. Property sector remains ‘abysmal’ Despite an acceleration in property policy easing, related investments continued to struggle and fell by 9 per cent in January and February. Property investments in 2023 had dropped by 9.6 per cent, year on year. “Property activity indicators continued to tread along abysmally,” said Louise Loo, China economist at Oxford Economics.