https://www.scmp.com/rss/16364/feed Marco Vicenzino specialises in geopolitical risk and international business development. He is strategic adviser to corporate executives and family offices operating globally, and a regular speaker at international conferences. He is a lawyer with degrees from Oxford University and Georgetown University. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Marco Vicenzino Marco Vicenzino Even if the immediate phase of conflict subsides, the Gulf is unlikely to return to the status quo. For Asia, the central question is no longer simply whether the Strait of Hormuz is open. It is whether the waterway remains reliable, predictable and politically insulated from coercion. That distinction now matters more than ever. For China and other major Asian importers, it is a question of whether energy flows, shipping routes and sanctions exposure are increasingly being shaped by a crisis... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351638/why-era-managed-hormuz-disruption-wouldnt-bode-well-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351638/why-era-managed-hormuz-disruption-wouldnt-bode-well-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 29 Apr 2026 12:30:08 +0000 Marco Vicenzino Marco Vicenzino The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is a real diplomatic breakthrough. It has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a relief rally in global markets and eased the immediate fear of a spiralling energy shock. But its strategic significance lies less in the relief it has produced than in the uncertainty it leaves behind. The truce is time-limited, tied to negotiations and built around temporary safe passage rather than a settled regional order. The ceasefire terms and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3349425/asia-us-iran-ceasefire-offers-little-relief-and-much-uncertainty?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3349425/asia-us-iran-ceasefire-offers-little-relief-and-much-uncertainty?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 09 Apr 2026 14:30:10 +0000 Marco Vicenzino Marco Vicenzino Geopolitical competition has long been understood in territorial terms. Power was measured by control over land, resources and populations. Rivalry was expressed through military confrontation, alliance formation and the defence of borders. As economic interdependence deepened in the 20th century, globalisation was seen as an arena within which states competed, but not itself the object of competition. That assumption no longer holds. Increasingly, the infrastructure of globalisation is becoming... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3347953/age-us-china-rivalry-supply-chain-statecraft-counts?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3347953/age-us-china-rivalry-supply-chain-statecraft-counts?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 31 Mar 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Marco Vicenzino Marco Vicenzino The coordinated US and Israeli strikes inside Iran mark more than another episode in a long-running confrontation. They represent a structural escalation – one whose consequences extend well beyond the Middle East. This is not the start of a new war. It is the next stage in a conflict that has been unfolding since October 2023, gradually shifting from proxy exchanges and shadow operations to direct state-on-state confrontation. On February 28, Washington moved from strategic backstop to visible... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344982/us-israeli-strike-iran-signals-new-phase-global-escalation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344982/us-israeli-strike-iran-signals-new-phase-global-escalation?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 28 Feb 2026 13:20:08 +0000 The new era of great power rivalry is marked by increasing fragmentation between and within states. The outcome of Germany’s recent election provides a sobering example. The fracturing across Germany’s political spectrum is reflective of a broader fracturing across the European Union and the EU’s relations with the US, its strongest traditional ally and decades-long security guarantor. The growing concern of the US possibly retreating from Europe, as well as an advancing Russia, has shifted the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3301791/europe-takes-lead-its-own-defence-it-must-agree-how?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3301791/europe-takes-lead-its-own-defence-it-must-agree-how?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 12 Mar 2025 12:30:08 +0000 There are decades when nothing happens and there are weeks when decades happen. This is the Middle East today. The downfall of Syria’s Assad regime, coupled with forces unleashed after Hamas attacked Israel in 2023, have triggered a regional power vacuum. This crisis of uncertainty presents a historic opportunity for a geopolitical reconfiguration. In recent decades, the Middle East has experienced too many failed resets. It is time to alter course, reverse the cycle and for regional actors –... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3293451/syria-chance-middle-east-shape-its-own-better-future?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3293451/syria-chance-middle-east-shape-its-own-better-future?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 06 Jan 2025 21:30:09 +0000 After more than 50 years of repressive autocratic rule, over 13 years of bloody civil war that displaced more than 12 million people and a 12-day lightning offensive by opposition forces, the Assad family’s dominance of Syria has ended. With elation comes deep uncertainty about what comes next in Syria and its implications for the region and beyond. A fundamental question prevails: will Syria transition from a secular dictatorship to a stable representative government or hardline Islamist... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3290175/what-assads-downfall-syria-and-rise-hts-mean-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3290175/what-assads-downfall-syria-and-rise-hts-mean-world?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Dec 2024 12:30:09 +0000 As America’s two candidates prepare for the final phase of the US presidential election, the unfolding process will be marked by day-to-day trench warfare and fluid dynamics that can alter the contest in either direction at any given moment, particularly the scheduled presidential debate on September 10. US Vice-President Kamala Harris will aim to maintain the momentum she has gained since launching her campaign in late July and further build on the electoral bump from the recent Democratic... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3276845/us-swing-voters-await-harris-trump-answers-big-questions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3276845/us-swing-voters-await-harris-trump-answers-big-questions?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 Sep 2024 12:30:09 +0000 The United States has been engaged in a low-intensity conflict in the Middle East for several years, which seriously escalated after Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7. Moreover, US President Joe Biden’s diplomatic outreach to Iran, a cornerstone of his foreign policy, has failed to achieve any concrete long-term results. The shadow war between the US and its partners and Iran’s “axis of resistance” has been marked by a dangerous game of brinkmanship, which is now turning into a vicious... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250510/middle-east-bidens-little-carrot-no-stick-approach-isnt-working?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250510/middle-east-bidens-little-carrot-no-stick-approach-isnt-working?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Feb 2024 11:30:14 +0000 The devastating surprise attacks by Hamas in southern Israel mark a transformative moment not just for the Israeli-Palestinian rivalry but between Israel and Hamas’ sponsors, primarily Iran and Hezbollah, that could potentially result in a broader regional war. As Israel regains control of its territory, it has announced over 900 deaths so far, more than 2,000 injured and at least 100 abducted. Palestinians have claimed over 650 deaths and more than 3,700 injured. In preparation for an... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237412/flames-israel-hamas-war-could-engulf-region-and-beyond?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237412/flames-israel-hamas-war-could-engulf-region-and-beyond?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 10 Oct 2023 21:30:17 +0000 Despite the recent return of stock market volatility and diminishing hopes that easing lockdowns would lead to a quick recovery, the US market has generally remained disconnected from post-pandemic political realities. Initial positive sentiment has been reinforced by several factors, including the unexpected drop in unemployment and the creation of 2.5 million jobs in May. Furthermore, according to the New York Federal Reserve, companies’ outlook is at a decade high and manufacturing in New... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3091035/us-economic-outlook-until-november-cloudy-chance-escalating-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3091035/us-economic-outlook-until-november-cloudy-chance-escalating-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 30 Jun 2020 17:00:05 +0000 As the post-pandemic global order emerges, fragmentation looms large across the geopolitical landscape. The US-China rift will widen as Beijing confronts American global influence and Asian neighbours head-on while exploiting weaknesses in Europe and much of the developing world. Unlike the Cold War, the new geopolitical structure is not marked by a binary US-Soviet divide with clearly-defined camps. Friends and foes often cross traditional lines for short-term economic interest, political gain... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3088626/us-china-rivalry-will-shape-post-coronavirus-world-order-while?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3088626/us-china-rivalry-will-shape-post-coronavirus-world-order-while?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 12 Jun 2020 19:00:11 +0000 As an international conference speaker, I am often asked: “What keeps you awake at night?” My consistent reply over the years has been: pandemics. History is littered with catastrophic examples. In a recent speech to private investors about the coronavirus, I warned them not to underestimate the virus’ ability to spread havoc in global markets. It could be far worse than anything anticipated. The potential for extensive, long-term damage is not limited to global supply chains, but also includes... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3075137/pandemic-stalking-world-once-more-march-11-will-become-fateful-day?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3075137/pandemic-stalking-world-once-more-march-11-will-become-fateful-day?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 16 Mar 2020 00:00:18 +0000 The tragic massacre at the office of the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris marks a direct attack upon the foundations of all democratic societies. It merits immediate and universal condemnation across all political and religious spectrums regardless of affiliation. It also requires the firm and unequivocal public expression of solidarity with the media globally. Such solidarity will send a clear message that civil liberties, particularly freedoms of speech and the press, will not... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1676838/worldwide-solidarity-only-response-radical-terror-threat?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1676838/worldwide-solidarity-only-response-radical-terror-threat?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Jan 2015 02:59:56 +0000 As tensions on the Korean Peninsula escalate once more, global stability hangs in the balance. This time it involves a serious border skirmish and another announcement by the rogue North Korean regime that it is augmenting its nuclear capability in defiance of sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council, which again is obliged to seize the initiative. The standard routine follows: condemnation, sanctions and eventual gridlock in enforcing the sanctions due to competing interests of major... https://www.scmp.com/article/731653/china-must-play-its-part-defuse-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/article/731653/china-must-play-its-part-defuse-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 25 Nov 2010 16:00:00 +0000