https://www.scmp.com/rss/269278/feed Richard has pioneered Asian investment management at senior levels for companies such as JP Morgan, Citi, BNY Mellon and several start-ups. He has 40 years of experience in a full range of investment and capital markets activities. He is CEO of Port Shelter Investment Management. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Richard Harris Richard Harris The mighty Zambezi River has its source in northern Zambia, and flows north, west, south, then east, tracing borders for several countries including Zimbabwe. As the river enters Zimbabwe, the water molecules begin to flow faster, unknowingly energised – developing first into a rush, then eventually a torrent as they plunge down the Victoria Falls. This is an excellent analogy of the extremes of stock market price movements. In a stock market crash, prices move slowly, then very fast. My... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3348698/us-hong-kong-theres-no-excuse-insider-trading?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3348698/us-hong-kong-theres-no-excuse-insider-trading?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Apr 2026 21:30:10 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris So, the Trump administration has now decapitated two governments, Venezuela and Iran. You can be sure most world leaders will be videoconferencing from secure bunkers from now on. Iran’s leaders brought this upon themselves by being aggressively extremist, especially about their stated aim to destroy Israel, another sovereign state. They have sought to destabilise fellow Muslim states in the Middle East and beyond for decades. Iran’s antipathy towards its neighbours has caused it to attack no... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345426/are-investors-spooked-iran-violence-market-response-suggests-not?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345426/are-investors-spooked-iran-violence-market-response-suggests-not?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Mar 2026 21:30:09 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris US President Donald Trump’s trip to Europe to speak at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss alpine town of Davos was possibly one he wished he had never made; such was its failure to impress. First, his plane had to turn back due to a technical problem. Second, he gave a typically hostile speech, but then he lived up to his nickname “Taco” (Trump always chickens out) over threats to invade Greenland that would have imperilled about a third of global trade. Third, he said disingenuously that if... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3342335/how-america-first-many-respects-puts-america-behind?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3342335/how-america-first-many-respects-puts-america-behind?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Feb 2026 12:30:11 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris Investment narratives abound at this time of year, and many of them may develop into generally accepted financial myths that often don’t make much sense. Declaring myths as such is a risky business. A week is a long time to forecast in the investment markets, let alone a year. However, investment shocks and surprises can move markets, and it is important to be contrarian and think outside the box. Recognising alternative investment outcomes against the market consensus is what makes successful... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338257/5-financial-myths-beware-2026?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338257/5-financial-myths-beware-2026?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Jan 2026 21:30:09 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris Drilling down on the artificial intelligence (AI) investment story is becoming critical as stock markets find excuses for ever greater enthusiasm. Any little story with an AI theme is driving up stock prices, assisted by the billions pledged for the building of data centres to handle all of our future searches. The share price of Fanuc, a Japanese robotic company, jumped 9 per cent on the opening bell on Tuesday after it announced a tie-up with AI darling Nvidia. AI is likely to be a great tool,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335053/winners-ai-spending-mania-wont-necessarily-be-innovators?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335053/winners-ai-spending-mania-wont-necessarily-be-innovators?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Dec 2025 12:35:33 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris Economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that stock markets accurately predicted nine of the last five recessions. The same could be said of financial economists. So-called leading indicators like market sentiment swing with the daily news. Optimism is the default option but bull markets die hard. Still, most seasoned financial economists now recognise that stock markets are becoming more fragile. And so does the crowd. The frequency of online searches for “stock market bubble” has surged since... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331666/amid-fragile-markets-how-predict-when-bubble-will-burst?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331666/amid-fragile-markets-how-predict-when-bubble-will-burst?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Nov 2025 21:30:09 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris Well before the first Trump administration, US markets dominated because of a free and open economy for trade and ideas, its trusted currency, its focused regulation, a central banking board that set interest rates independent of fickle politicians and the unparalleled breadth and liquidity of its bond and equity markets. The US economy grew substantially in the 1990s as its young entrepreneurs inspired leading-edge technology and its deep capital markets encouraged global investment. The US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3327584/us-pride-its-own-exceptionalism-hastening-its-decline?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3327584/us-pride-its-own-exceptionalism-hastening-its-decline?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Oct 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris Witticisms about economists abound. George Bernard Shaw apparently remarked that if all the world’s economists were laid end to end, they still would not reach a conclusion. There are quips about the “three-handed” economist – on the one hand, on the other hand, and so forth – and how economists have predicted far more recessions than have come to pass. It was therefore with anticipation that I joined a conference last month in Lindau, Germany, to discuss the dismal science. The 8th Lindau Nobel... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325087/financial-markets-wont-be-spared-geopolitical-rules-are-torn?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325087/financial-markets-wont-be-spared-geopolitical-rules-are-torn?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 11 Sep 2025 08:30:12 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris You have to hand it to him. Six months into his second term, US President Donald Trump has largely done what he said he would – not many politicians can say that. He reigns supreme. The Supreme Court, Congress, federal civil service and Justice Department have all, it seems, been made to bend to his will, making his mercurial policies easy to execute. He has negotiated trade agreements with the European Union, Britain, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan and South Korea to the great... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3320182/trumps-many-victories-will-prove-pyrrhic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3320182/trumps-many-victories-will-prove-pyrrhic?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 31 Jul 2025 08:32:50 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris Those who forget history are bound to repeat it, but history is not something that US President Donald Trump appears to think about very much. Instead, he is more likely to think about the possibility of being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize he has long coveted despite the fact that his primary contribution to peace so far has been to bomb people. The energy shown by the second Trump administration during the past six months has been extraordinary. The United States has never seen a presidency so... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3316653/trumps-war-everything-will-lead-his-eventual-downfall?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3316653/trumps-war-everything-will-lead-his-eventual-downfall?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Jul 2025 21:30:10 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris The final classic of England’s horse racing season is the St Leger’s Day race at Doncaster, on September 13 – made famous by the stockbroker’s mantra, “Sell in May and go away, come again St Leger’s Day”. This referred to well-heeled brokers taking long summer holidays when trading was subdued and left in the hands of junior dealers. Mantras like these recognise that markets show a definite seasonality, with quiet summers giving way to an often-exciting October as money movers return to work.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3313084/mays-taco-market-lull-may-well-be-calm-storm?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3313084/mays-taco-market-lull-may-well-be-calm-storm?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Jun 2025 01:30:08 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris To investors worried about the direction of volatile markets over the next few weeks, fear not. I have some good news for you. The impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff tantrum is abating. The markets are back to normal – at least for now. But to understand why markets have somewhat recovered, albeit temporarily, we need to review how the system for pricing assets works. Prices don’t need to move substantially if there is no relevant news; rather, they remain in a steady state between... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3308478/markets-recover-trump-tariff-shock-how-long-will-new-normal-last?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3308478/markets-recover-trump-tariff-shock-how-long-will-new-normal-last?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 May 2025 08:30:09 +0000 The first Hong Kong Sevens in the new Kai Tak Stadium was a success except for the rule that forbade outside food and drink to protect the concessionaires – who then ran out of, er, food and drink. Despite these privations, three days in a small seat surrounded by thousands of people allows for deep introspection with neighbours. In between loud cheers for Hong Kong’s victories in both the men’s and women’s Melrose Claymores, the dominant narrative was geopolitics. Blackrock CEO Larry Fink... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3304924/7-economic-narratives-sevens-make-us-glad-we-live-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3304924/7-economic-narratives-sevens-make-us-glad-we-live-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 04 Apr 2025 01:30:08 +0000 The dramatic public row between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky popped the bubble of the White House echo chamber. Zelensky, a wartime leader, exposed the man whose closest brush with war was a medical deferment that prevented him from serving. Trump and Vice-President J.D. Vance showed their limited understanding of anything outside Washington. When Zelensky asked Vance if he’d been to Ukraine, he said he’d “watched and seen the stories”. Where? TikTok... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3301185/trumps-policies-are-accelerating-financial-pivot-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3301185/trumps-policies-are-accelerating-financial-pivot-china?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Mar 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Attentive readers will know that a year ago I laid out five myths, or dominant but misleading investment narratives, that were generally accepted as baseline expectations by the markets. Any myth has a proportion of truth attached. In articulating them, one runs the risk that at least some of the myth turns out to be correct. Market forecasts for the new year will be affected by kind of events that former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld would refer to as “unknown unknowns” – things we can’t... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3292977/us-stocks-chinas-growth-5-myths-cloud-2025s-outlook?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3292977/us-stocks-chinas-growth-5-myths-cloud-2025s-outlook?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Jan 2025 08:30:09 +0000 In my research, I have found that market narratives inspire periodic, cyclical and seasonal regularities in asset prices at certain times, such as the January and October effects. The end of the year is typically a time when investors review markets afresh and discard old narratives for new ones. It is a time for the Harris Law of Quarterly Reversals to come into its own. It describes how markets often change course at the end of a financial quarter – sometimes up, sometimes down or sometimes... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3289313/trump-could-upend-us-economy-just-china-recovering?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3289313/trump-could-upend-us-economy-just-china-recovering?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Dec 2024 21:30:07 +0000 Even with deadly wars and concerns about artificial intelligence and inflation, the sword of Damocles that seems to hang over everything this year is the US presidential election. We are days away from that “pivot event”, yet the race between Vice-President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump is still balanced on a knife-edge. A pivot event occurs when a material outcome is expected upon the release of news at a known point in time. For the US election, that moment comes when... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3284321/amid-all-us-election-noise-investors-need-keep-calm?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3284321/amid-all-us-election-noise-investors-need-keep-calm?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 31 Oct 2024 12:30:08 +0000 Central bankers like long public holidays. They are the best time to announce a significant change in policy that is intended to change market behaviour – when they get the biggest bang from a big bazooka. What better time than the natural slowdown just before the “golden week” national holiday? The results were spectacular, with the FTSE’s China A50 Index rising about 24 per cent in just one week following the announcements. Hong Kong’s market went up only around 16 per cent. These historical... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3280670/hong-kongs-stock-market-has-finally-found-its-footing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3280670/hong-kongs-stock-market-has-finally-found-its-footing?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Oct 2024 21:30:08 +0000 The flash crash at the beginning of August saw the Hong Kong stock market fall by as much as 9 per cent in two weeks, bottoming out on August 5 after a sharp 3 per cent fall the night before in the US stock market. This caused a substantial fright among investors, occasioned by some difficult US employment numbers and talk of apparent weakness in the consumer sector. As we know, the markets quickly recovered, with investors using the biggest trawlers they could find to bottom-fish for... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3277151/august-stock-rout-shows-fragility-consumer-sentiment?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3277151/august-stock-rout-shows-fragility-consumer-sentiment?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Sep 2024 08:30:09 +0000 I often have lunch with the great and good. Admittedly, this is generally by reading the “Lunch with the FT” column. The Financial Times’ latest guest is Reverend Franklin Graham, the son of the famous evangelist Billy, who is unashamedly pro-Donald Trump. Supporting a presidential candidate who has been convicted by a jury of paying off an adult film actress for her silence might be said by some to be an unusual choice for a Christian leader. His reasoning is that the previous US president... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3272586/how-much-do-policymakers-affect-economy-maybe-less-you-think?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3272586/how-much-do-policymakers-affect-economy-maybe-less-you-think?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Aug 2024 07:30:12 +0000 US President Joe Biden’s disastrous performance at the recent presidential debate has completely changed the game, not only for himself but for our political, economic and investment expectations in the second half of the 2020s. Both Biden and former president Donald Trump showed an old man’s lack of lucidity in the debate, but the former’s slow and hesitant comments under pressure were more than just a senior moment. It confirmed that his health will not cope with four more years in the Oval... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3268966/why-biden-standing-down-might-be-best-way-beat-trump?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3268966/why-biden-standing-down-might-be-best-way-beat-trump?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Jul 2024 08:30:08 +0000 The perfect is the enemy of the good. Our behavioural instincts seek the very best answer to a problem but optimal decision-making requires a great deal of thought, which self-justifies the need to do even more analysis and makes reaching the final decision even harder. Herbert Simon theorised that decisions that are good enough can be made by companies most of the time using only partial information. There is not enough time to collect all of the data, even if all of it could be collected.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3265432/taxi-reform-hong-kong-start-paying-drivers-more?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3265432/taxi-reform-hong-kong-start-paying-drivers-more?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 07 Jun 2024 01:30:10 +0000 Is this a developing economy: it produces advanced 7-nanometre silicon chips, is the world’s biggest producer of renewable energy components, has more smart factories than anywhere else, is the world’s leading electric vehicle manufacturer, has continental-scale mobile phone coverage and the most powerful hydroelectric, solar and wind power stations, as well as the largest distribution network. It is a country where people in local and European designer outfits walk on modern streets in major... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3261080/call-likes-china-and-india-developing-frankly-insulting?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3261080/call-likes-china-and-india-developing-frankly-insulting?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 May 2024 07:30:12 +0000 Hong Kong is back. You can see it in the crowds expected to be heading towards So Kon Po as the legendary Hong Kong Sevens rugby tournament kicks off in Hong Kong Stadium. Hong Kong established the Sevens 48 years ago, seeding a true world series. I believe the English rugby anthem, Sweet Caroline, was first sung as a rugby anthem here. This year, World Rugby has taken over the tournament that Hong Kong popularised, changing the well-loved format. Smaller teams find it almost impossible to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3257746/three-cheers-sevens-and-hong-kong-different-back-business?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3257746/three-cheers-sevens-and-hong-kong-different-back-business?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Apr 2024 07:30:10 +0000 One day last week, my screen of daily global stock market price indices was a sea of green as every price was up. India touched an all-time high a month ago, earlier this month it was Australia and last week the EuroStoxx 600, the US S&P 500, Taiwan and Japan all breached all-time highs. I remember Japan’s last high in 1989, when shares and the yen both doubled in four years. A pizza in Roppongi cost more than US$50. Lesson One of investment is that what goes up in a surge of narrative often... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3253380/9-lessons-investors-new-era-stock-market-record-highs?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3253380/9-lessons-investors-new-era-stock-market-record-highs?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 29 Feb 2024 07:15:12 +0000 Hong Kong has almost always been cheap. I’m not talking about the cost of housing or the prices in the supermarkets – but the value of the stock market. For the decades leading up to the handover in 1997, the Hong Kong market was consistently one of the cheapest in the world, as measured by the time-honoured ratio of share price to company earnings (P/E). Scores of investors – usually those who think of themselves as “masters of the universe” – were caught out thinking that the market would... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250505/worst-may-be-over-hong-kong-stocks-its-time-buy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250505/worst-may-be-over-hong-kong-stocks-its-time-buy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Feb 2024 21:30:15 +0000 Bull markets make for casual investors. There is little volatility, the trend is your friend and investors can hide their mistakes. That was 2023. The obvious misjudgment was investors expecting a global recession, when in fact stock markets had a superb year. The result was happiness. The Nasdaq index rose a massive 43 per cent, the S&P 500 jumped 24 per cent and the Euro Stoxx was up more than 17 per cent, all after a miserable 2022. Only China broke the mould as the expected post-Covid... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3247149/china-recovery-trump-victory-five-myths-investors-must-beware-2024?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3247149/china-recovery-trump-victory-five-myths-investors-must-beware-2024?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Jan 2024 06:30:20 +0000 Charlie Munger, the Robin to Warren Buffett’s Batman, has died at 99, leaving an unparalleled investment legacy. Famous for his one-liners, he remains a beacon for the critical role of experience in investment. One of his oft-quoted aphorisms is “The big money is not in the buying or selling … but in the waiting.” Trading is the mechanism by which investors get exposure to stocks. Trading in and out, constantly trying to buy low and sell high is not investment but speculation, which often... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3243333/charlie-mungers-wisdom-crypto-poison-shows-investment-experience-counts?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3243333/charlie-mungers-wisdom-crypto-poison-shows-investment-experience-counts?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 01 Dec 2023 03:00:08 +0000 One of the world’s largest industries in terms of litres of printer’s ink is forecasting the future. We all want to know what risks are coming so we can prepare against the bad stuff and look forward to the good. Forecasting is difficult, and prediction is impossible. Forecasting tools range from fortune-tellers to highly sophisticated, casino-busting analytical models. All forecasters have a probability of getting it wrong, and the best can only find indicators of the future by looking to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239946/israels-borders-are-safe-gaza-war-puts-its-future-security-peril?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239946/israels-borders-are-safe-gaza-war-puts-its-future-security-peril?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Nov 2023 05:30:17 +0000 A tax on salt was thought to have been first levied in China around 300BC, to help fund the construction of the Great Wall. Salt has been prized throughout history; used financially, fiscally, politically and indeed medically for its anti-inflammatory and antibacterial properties. The recent surge in sales of salt in Hong Kong and mainland China was partly due to rumours that salt would prevent radioactive iodine from entering the thyroid gland after exposure to excess radiation. This loss of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232911/will-china-bring-out-big-bazooka-revive-its-economy-i-would-bet-it?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232911/will-china-bring-out-big-bazooka-revive-its-economy-i-would-bet-it?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 31 Aug 2023 14:30:13 +0000 The extended weakness in Hong Kong’s residential property market has been an unusual and unpleasant experience for many of us. Property turnover fell 40 per cent last year with buyers waiting for price falls and sellers unwilling to sell at these prices. It doesn’t seem right for Hong Kong property to go sideways or downwards – even during the global financial crisis, property prices fell only 22 per cent. Prices rose more than fivefold from the dark days of the severe acute respiratory syndrome... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229692/when-will-hong-kong-property-prices-recover-not-any-time-soon?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229692/when-will-hong-kong-property-prices-recover-not-any-time-soon?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 04 Aug 2023 00:15:07 +0000 Harry Markowitz, one of the first researchers to put rigour into investment decision-making, died on June 22 at age 95. Rightly regarded as the father of modern financial analysis, his life neatly spanned the entire lifetime of financial research. By coincidence, in Markowitz’s birth year of 1927, a frustrated Alfred Cowles commissioned an investigation into the inaccuracy of stock recommendations to his wealthy family. Cowles’ paper, published in 1933, was titled “Can Stock Market Forecasters... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3226481/figuring-out-todays-messy-stock-markets-takes-dose-markowitzs-modern-portfolio-theory?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3226481/figuring-out-todays-messy-stock-markets-takes-dose-markowitzs-modern-portfolio-theory?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Jul 2023 14:00:15 +0000 On November 30, 2021, US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said it was time to stop describing inflation as “transitory”. Six months later, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted she “didn’t, at the time, fully understand” how severe inflation would be. Last month, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said “there are very big lessons about how we operate monetary policy in the face of very big shocks”. These are embarrassing admissions by our economic leaders to the blindingly... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222495/how-chasing-sugar-rush-monetary-infusions-gave-us-high-inflation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222495/how-chasing-sugar-rush-monetary-infusions-gave-us-high-inflation?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Jun 2023 08:30:15 +0000 The SpaceX Starship spacecraft is intended to repeat the achievements of the Saturn V rocket that put US astronauts Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin on the moon in 1969 and then to go onwards to Mars. It is about 30 metres taller than the Statue of Liberty and its 33 rocket engines produce twice the thrust of the Saturn V. It lifts a 150-tonne payload into low-Earth orbit, which is more than Saturn V’s capacity, on two rather than three rocket stages. It is an awesome feat of modern... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219220/narrative-spin-spacex-and-federal-reserve-shows-scepticism-need-hour?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219220/narrative-spin-spacex-and-federal-reserve-shows-scepticism-need-hour?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 May 2023 20:00:12 +0000 On the morning of February 26, 1995, I was awoken in a Swiss mountain lodge by the BBC World Service news on my Sony shortwave radio. The signal was indistinct (this was pre-digital) and I gleaned through the ether that a famous British bank had gone bust – but I could not catch the name. I had to wait 30 minutes for the headlines, and a clearer signal, to hear that the 233-year-old Barings Bank had gone under. The collapse of Barings was very different to the recent banking crises in Europe,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216074/bigger-barings-banking-crises-have-been-averted-how-safe-your-capital?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216074/bigger-barings-banking-crises-have-been-averted-how-safe-your-capital?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Apr 2023 13:30:09 +0000 “On Wall Street today, news of lower interest rates sent the stock market up, but then the expectation that these rates would be inflationary sent the market down, until the realisation that lower rates might stimulate the sluggish economy pushed the market up, before it ultimately went down on fears that an overheated economy would lead to a re-imposition of higher interest rates.” New Yorker cartoonist Robert Mankoff wrote this in 1981 and it remains a classic because it’s funny – and it’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211922/investors-should-learn-spot-news-narratives-move-markets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211922/investors-should-learn-spot-news-narratives-move-markets?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Mar 2023 13:30:11 +0000 The World Economic Forum in Davos last month slightly lost its relevance this year, with the drift from a world economy into the “friendshoring” world-order blocs of China, Europe, and the US. Superpower leaders delegated their presence to their juniors, who rehashed speeches on interest rates, inflation and trade from last year. But the climate change activists, headlined by Greta Thunberg, were present and in full voice. Pressure is quite rightly increasing on big business to finance the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3208735/climate-systems-are-beyond-human-control-someone-should-tell-global-warming-activists?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3208735/climate-systems-are-beyond-human-control-someone-should-tell-global-warming-activists?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Feb 2023 14:00:12 +0000 “The virtuous circle will turn vicious” was the prediction made by this column at the end of 2021. We can’t claim to be a soothsayer for it seemed evident that 2022 would show that what goes up will come down. Since 1871 there has been no year in which both global bonds and equities have fallen quite so much. We’ve seen those markets lose US$30 trillion in value in just one year – that’s the equivalent of the annual output of nearly two US economies. The S&P 500 fell a fifth, as did Chinese... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205517/five-indicators-watch-2023-may-impact-your-investment-choices?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205517/five-indicators-watch-2023-may-impact-your-investment-choices?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Jan 2023 08:15:08 +0000 Swarm intelligence is where natural organisms make collaborative decisions. A flock of birds or a school of fish confounding a predator make better defensive decisions as a group than an individual. Such decisions adapt and change in real time to suit the prevailing conditions and near-term expectations. Another example is the jelly bean experiment in psychology where a crowd is asked how many jelly beans are in a jar. Individuals are unlikely to get anywhere close, but the wisdom of the crowd... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198142/yen-collapse-and-uk-mini-budget-debacle-show-its-better-work-markets-fight-them?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198142/yen-collapse-and-uk-mini-budget-debacle-show-its-better-work-markets-fight-them?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Nov 2022 14:00:11 +0000 Around 1900, the future US president Theodore Roosevelt articulated his foreign policy through the West African proverb, “Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far.” Roosevelt’s policy – which, by the way, came from a man as fond of macho poses, bare-chested or on horseback, as Russian President Vladimir Putin – is of great relevance today. Peaceful negotiation, without histrionics, shows respect for one’s opponents, while making it clear that you are an equal. Jerome Powell, chairman... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3190798/inflation-sticks-and-recession-hits-prepare-five-years-hard-times?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3190798/inflation-sticks-and-recession-hits-prepare-five-years-hard-times?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Sep 2022 17:30:33 +0000 When people ask me whether Hong Kong has changed since 1997, I say, “Yes, but it changed just as much in the 25 years before that.” The city has changed more than most places on the planet, but eventually we all get old. The next 25 years look to be less exciting as we move towards old age. Hong Kong’s population stood at about 3.9 million in 1972, 6.3 million in 1997 and is 7.6 million today. Estimates suggest the city will be home to about 8.1 million people by 2047 – that is an extrapolation,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183458/dynamic-change-may-be-past-ageing-hong-kong-amid-greater-mainland?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183458/dynamic-change-may-be-past-ageing-hong-kong-amid-greater-mainland?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 30 Jun 2022 03:30:13 +0000 In the past 25 years, global stock markets have risen over 200 per cent, according to the MSCI World Index. Global property is up more than 130 per cent, with the Hang Seng Property Index up threefold, although now back to 2015 levels. Global money supply (M1) is a staggering 280 per cent higher as central banks have provided the liquidity to inflate asset prices. Yet cash has remained stable, helped by low supply and demand-led inflation. Spare cash from mainland China, Russia and elsewhere has... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3179976/real-great-recession-upon-us-prepare-multi-year-losses?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3179976/real-great-recession-upon-us-prepare-multi-year-losses?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Jun 2022 00:45:19 +0000 It has been a very unusual week in a very unusual year. The temperature in Hong Kong dropped to its lowest May level in 105 years – so much for global warming – only a few days after the Hong Kong Observatory issued its earliest ever hot weather warning when the mercury cracked the 35-degree-Celsius mark. Strange things are happening in this age of transition. The Chinese look to predict earthquakes by the braying of dogs and the emergence of snakes, so it’s no wonder that soothsayers, prophets,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176488/calls-break-hsbc-are-bleak-sign-things-come-our-once-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176488/calls-break-hsbc-are-bleak-sign-things-come-our-once-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 May 2022 01:15:08 +0000 If anyone had predicted what would happen in the first quarter of 2022, you would have been forgiven for thinking it was an April Fool’s Day joke. It is as if the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse had finally arrived. They brought pestilence via Covid-19, famine through soaring food prices, a declaration of war, and death – but enough about Hong Kong. The pandemic was reduced to a sideshow in many parts of the world following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it still has a sting. Mainland China... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3172433/why-inflation-and-slow-growth-not-ukraine-war-will-drive-markets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3172433/why-inflation-and-slow-growth-not-ukraine-war-will-drive-markets?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 31 Mar 2022 19:30:22 +0000 “Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events … Always remember: however sure that you are that you can easily win, there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.” Winston... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3168916/amid-invasion-and-fifth-wave-russia-and-hong-kong-are-feeling-wrath?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3168916/amid-invasion-and-fifth-wave-russia-and-hong-kong-are-feeling-wrath?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Mar 2022 08:30:14 +0000 I remember the exact moment the first Gulf war began. I was managing money for Jardine Fleming in 1991. We had been waiting nearly six months, watching the build-up of military might in the Middle East and waiting to see how Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein would be thrown out of Kuwait. The Hang Seng Index had fallen sharply over that period. Our director in Bahrain was Frank Gardner, now security correspondent for the BBC. He was woken up at midnight by jets roaring over his house. Being a former... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3165598/ukraine-crisis-why-investors-should-fear-inflation-and-interest?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3165598/ukraine-crisis-why-investors-should-fear-inflation-and-interest?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Feb 2022 17:30:22 +0000 It is a truth universally acknowledged that the stock markets will take fright at the first whiff of interest rates rising. This year might well prove that wrong as the two prize fighters, interest rates and inflation, duke it out. As with any sporting contest, fortunes will ebb and flow. That could lead to investors getting whiplashed as we don’t know when the first knockdown will come. The eventual winner might not be known this year, but whoever it is will dominate financial narratives for... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3162237/expect-year-shock-and-recovery-interest-rates-and-prices-rise?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3162237/expect-year-shock-and-recovery-interest-rates-and-prices-rise?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Jan 2022 06:30:21 +0000 Over the past three years, I have been pursuing doctoral research in narrative finance – the study of how stories move markets. It is a new topic for academic study, even though we have known for centuries that stories move prices. Even so, it is now timely, as the need for identifying stories in modern finance has never been so important. This is because classical finance – the aspect of the discipline that gave us powerful valuation metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios, cash flow... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3161397/why-inflation-not-pandemic-recovery-likely-be-biggest-story?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3161397/why-inflation-not-pandemic-recovery-likely-be-biggest-story?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Dec 2021 01:15:07 +0000 For the eighth year running, I contacted The Oracle of the Markets to see if he could give me some insight into investor prospects for 2022. I couldn’t find Santa in any of his usual watering holes, and he was pretty slow answering text messages. Then I remembered the old-school method of communication – and called him. It turned out he was in quarantine at Penny’s Bay. “What happened?” I asked. “It seems that one of my junior elves tested positive over the weekend. Before I knew it, my cave was... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3159817/out-coronavirus-narrative-inflation-story-markets-2022-so-says?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3159817/out-coronavirus-narrative-inflation-story-markets-2022-so-says?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Dec 2021 01:15:14 +0000 “The brains of humans contain a mechanism designed to give priority to bad news,” says behavioural psychologist Daniel Kahneman. “‘You’ve got to prepare for the worst’: World responds to new variant’s arrival”, read a headline in The Washington Post. The New York Times pointed to “a ‘Frankenstein mix’ of mutations raises concerns”, while noting that “the variant may remain vulnerable to current vaccines”. A Post report had a strapline, citing an infectious disease expert, which said, “further... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3158030/omicron-rattles-stock-markets-panic-warranted?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3158030/omicron-rattles-stock-markets-panic-warranted?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Dec 2021 08:30:13 +0000