https://www.scmp.com/rss/277914/feed William Pesek is a Tokyo-based journalist, former columnist for Barron’s and Bloomberg and author of “Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan’s Lost Decades”. Twitter: @williampesek en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com It’s déjà vu in Tokyo’s stock market as the Nikkei 225 rally shows signs of fizzling out. Global investors should know the drill quite well. Every three to five years, Tokyo shares surge on hopes that, this time, policymakers are serious about reforming an ageing, change-averse nation to rekindle innovation and boost productivity. Each time, gravity reasserts itself. Once investors realise the rally has outpaced upgrades to underlying economic conditions, sobriety returns. Valuations drop back... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3268862/yet-another-japan-stock-rally-fizzles-out-economic-reforms-disappoint?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3268862/yet-another-japan-stock-rally-fizzles-out-economic-reforms-disappoint?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Jul 2024 08:30:08 +0000 In Tokyo, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is searching for an exit from 23 years of quantitative easing. However, the answers he seeks could lie more in Beijing. Japanese policymakers are as surprised as anyone by the underperformance of China’s economy. Back in January, Team Ueda fully expected a powerful growth boost from Asia’s biggest economy that buttressed the argument for higher borrowing costs. Instead, Japan and its neighbours are grappling with the fallout from Chinese deflation,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3267774/how-chinas-slowdown-shaking-asias-economic-calculus?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3267774/how-chinas-slowdown-shaking-asias-economic-calculus?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 24 Jun 2024 08:30:08 +0000 The question of the moment for global investors is whether Indian leader Narendra Modi can learn new tricks. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has suffered what has been described as a “humbling setback” in recent elections and there is talk of “Modi fatigue” that few political pundits saw coming. Discerning the implications is the job of strategists advising investors on whether to bet on India or China. Modi’s stumble at the ballot box could work to China’s advantage. Asian markets aren’t... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3265632/how-modis-ballot-box-stumble-could-benefit-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3265632/how-modis-ballot-box-stumble-could-benefit-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 09 Jun 2024 01:30:09 +0000 One of the biggest missteps so far of US President Joe Biden’s tenure is not scrapping former president Donald Trump’s China tariffs on his first day in the White House. All Trump’s 2017-2021 tariffs did was raise prices for US consumers. They did little, if anything, to alter Sino-US trade dynamics. China’s economy has largely steered around Trump’s trade war, leaving US allies such as Japan and South Korea with the collateral damage. Why would Biden think doubling down on this approach is a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3263089/why-biden-wont-beat-china-out-trumping-trump-trade-tariffs?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3263089/why-biden-wont-beat-china-out-trumping-trump-trade-tariffs?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 20 May 2024 12:30:12 +0000 The China-versus-India debate of the past decade always seemed rather fanciful as Asia’s biggest economy boomed and hoovered up jobs and investment from every direction. As 2024 unfolds, though, some of the globe’s top CEOs and investors rushing India’s way are entertaining the five most dangerous words in economics: things are different this time. Apple is scaling up iPhone production in India’s youthful market of 1.4 billion people. Boeing is taking record orders. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3260808/will-indias-economy-continue-benefit-chinas-own-goals?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3260808/will-indias-economy-continue-benefit-chinas-own-goals?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 30 Apr 2024 07:30:21 +0000 As the Japanese yen tests its lowest levels since 1990, all eyes are on Tokyo to see if policymakers will act to break its fall. Instead, we should be looking at Beijing. Nothing would stabilise China’s economy faster than a weaker yuan. It would provide a quick and timely boost amid a deepening property crisis, deflationary pressures and record youth unemployment. And President Xi Jinping might conclude that the yen’s drop affords China the geopolitical cover to engineer a weaker yuan. Let’s... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3259080/yen-sinks-japan-must-avoid-goading-china-currency-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3259080/yen-sinks-japan-must-avoid-goading-china-currency-war?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 17 Apr 2024 08:30:16 +0000 Tokyo officialdom is having a low-grade panic over the spectre of another Donald Trump presidency, an event sure to make economic risk great again across the Asia-Pacific region if it comes to pass. Remember that Japan was, according to Trump, the original sinner when it comes to predatory trading nations that had “systematically sucked the blood out of America”. He uttered this phrase on a New York television talk show in 1989 while in his early 40s. Japan, he argued ad nauseam, had to be... https://www.scmp.com/comment/asia-opinion/article/3257185/why-japan-losing-sleep-over-nightmare-trump-re-election?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/asia-opinion/article/3257185/why-japan-losing-sleep-over-nightmare-trump-re-election?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 01 Apr 2024 21:30:21 +0000 When Chinese leaders announced a 5 per cent growth target on March 5, they probably didn’t expect to have to defend it. Global asset managers complained that more “forceful” steps are needed to boost growth and combat deflation. And disappointment was felt in some Asian markets that had hoped for a more vigorous response. The figure of around 5 per cent isn’t the problem. It’s that neither President Xi Jinping nor Premier Li Qiang appear to have an urgent plan to achieve it. No large-scale... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3255100/why-chinas-5-cent-gdp-target-has-failed-reassure-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3255100/why-chinas-5-cent-gdp-target-has-failed-reassure-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 13 Mar 2024 07:30:12 +0000 If ever there was proof that a nation’s economic health and stock market dynamics are two entirely different things, it’s present-day Japan. As the Nikkei 225 Stock Average soars to the highest since 1989 – the height of Japan’s “bubble economy” era – gross domestic product is cratering. After shrinking 3.3 per cent in the July-September period year on year, it contracted another 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter. The government is trying to spin this as a “technical” recession. That’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3252379/japans-split-screen-economy-roaring-stocks-and-shrinking-gdp?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3252379/japans-split-screen-economy-roaring-stocks-and-shrinking-gdp?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Feb 2024 08:30:15 +0000 Not much has been going President Xi Jinping’s way so far this year. China’s economy stumbled out of the gate. Stocks have been plunging. Deflation is deepening. And Evergrande is trending as a search term again. But leave it to Japan to offer Xi a win. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s fast-disappearing premiership is a gift to Xi and a blow to US President Joe Biden. Kishida’s government ended last year with public support as low as 17 per cent. One poll found public disapproval for the cabinet... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3251165/how-kishidas-disappearing-japanese-premiership-gift-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3251165/how-kishidas-disappearing-japanese-premiership-gift-china?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Feb 2024 11:30:08 +0000 Investors around the globe have many questions about China’s chaotic stock sell-off. Most relate to what is happening, how President Xi Jinping’s team might halt the plunge and where to hide? But it’s the when that may matter most. The reference is to 2015, the last time cratering Shanghai shares made global headlines for an extended period. The comparison matters because so many of the cracks Beijing pledged to fix eight-plus years ago remain below the surface. And they spook investors in ways... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3249362/how-chinas-stock-rout-was-8-years-making?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3249362/how-chinas-stock-rout-was-8-years-making?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Jan 2024 21:30:12 +0000 The extreme focus on the US Federal Reserve is distracting from the real drama for global markets: how People’s Bank of China (PBOC) officials play the next few months. It’s grand, of course, that investors think Fed chairman Jerome Powell may pull off that most elusive feat known as a “soft landing”. But the deepening deflation confounding PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng will keep any celebratory impulses to a minimum. Statistically speaking, the 0.5 per cent year-on-year drop in China’s consumer... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245740/beijing-risks-fiddling-while-chinas-economy-sinks-further-deflation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245740/beijing-risks-fiddling-while-chinas-economy-sinks-further-deflation?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Dec 2023 08:30:23 +0000 Japan’s political establishment is seeing a bull market in déjà vu as pundits speculate on whether Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s days are numbered. With approval ratings as low as 21 per cent, Kishida makes US President Joe Biden seem almost beloved by voters. That is well below the 30 per cent threshold that tends to represent the danger zone for Japanese governments. Seven of the last nine governments have lasted roughly one year. So will Kishida be shown the door in short order? Not... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3244033/japan-wont-be-swaggering-world-stage-any-time-soon?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3244033/japan-wont-be-swaggering-world-stage-any-time-soon?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 08 Dec 2023 01:30:14 +0000 As President Xi Jinping’s team struggles to address China’s property crisis, officials are forgetting the four most urgent lessons from Japan’s lost decades. Economists are churning out a bewildering number of cautionary analyses about China’s economic development “turning Japanese”. That is understandable considering that Asia’s biggest economy slid back into deflation in October and its 2024 prospects seem to dim by the day. It hardly helps that Beijing is proceeding as if time is on its side... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3241387/four-lessons-china-must-heed-japan-get-its-economy-back-track?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3241387/four-lessons-china-must-heed-japan-get-its-economy-back-track?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Nov 2023 08:30:12 +0000 As the Japanese yen breaks through 150 to the US dollar, investors can’t help but entertain the four most dangerous words in economics: this time is different. Global finance has seen more stand-offs than it can count these last 25 years between Tokyo and currency traders. Japan favours a weak yen to boost exports and corporate profits while financiers often think the exchange rate has fallen too far. This fuels near-constant tension. The stakes of the current stalemate, though, are higher than... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239671/why-japan-letting-yen-weaken-risks-stirring-global-hornets-nest?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239671/why-japan-letting-yen-weaken-risks-stirring-global-hornets-nest?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 31 Oct 2023 07:30:22 +0000 This crazy roller coaster of a year still seems to have some spills and thrills in store for Asia in the home stretch to 2024 – all too many, perhaps. Between China’s deepening property crisis, continued US Federal Reserve tightening and surging oil prices as Hamas and Israel wage war, it’s hard not to wonder if the year ahead might already be a wash for Asia and investors hoping to harness the region’s growth prospects. Take Japan, where government officials and economists are busily lowering... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3238193/china-downturn-israel-hamas-war-us-election-strife-2024-already-doomed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3238193/china-downturn-israel-hamas-war-us-election-strife-2024-already-doomed?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 19 Oct 2023 03:00:09 +0000 The most tantalising question in global economics is which nations are at risk of a Japan-like lost decade? China, of course, is the top candidate for this dreaded “Japanification” trajectory, whereby growth and inflation flatline year after year. South Korea often comes to mind among economies at risk of a prolonged funk. So do nations as varied as the UK and India. But what if the place that most needs to internalise the lessons from Japan these past 25 years is, in fact, Japan? Look no... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3236601/china-fights-japanification-tokyo-should-look-mirror?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3236601/china-fights-japanification-tokyo-should-look-mirror?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 04 Oct 2023 07:30:15 +0000 If officials in Seoul and Tokyo thought the insanity of 2018 is one for the record books, just wait until next year. The wild card is, of course, Donald Trump, who just received a potentially catalytic comeuppance from voters. America’s showman-in-chief would have you believe the November 6 Congressional elections strengthened his mandate. Hardly. The House of Representatives swinging to opposition control is an existential threat to his scandal machine of a White House. Donald Trump’s trade... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2172476/why-south-korea-and-japan-are-about-get-trumped?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2172476/why-south-korea-and-japan-are-about-get-trumped?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 11 Nov 2018 01:00:45 +0000 Shinzo Abe’s bromance with Donald Trump is experiencing a serious rough patch. The tension between the leaders of Japan and the US is building over slowing growth in Asia’s second-biggest economy. Six months ago, Prime Minister Abe basked in headlines about Japan’s longest recovery since the 1980s and booming stocks. Then came President Trump’s trade war. As 2018 enters the home stretch, the narrative is back on weakening growth, stubborn deflation and renewed central-bank action. The Bank of... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2171591/friend-who-trumps-japans-economic-recovery-does-shinzo-abe-really-still?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2171591/friend-who-trumps-japans-economic-recovery-does-shinzo-abe-really-still?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 04 Nov 2018 07:45:45 +0000 Asia could be excused for feeling a bit “fed up” with Donald Trump’s antics - literally. The US leader is engaged in an unprecedented tit-for-tat with the Federal Reserve over interest rate hikes. The Fed isn’t just any central bank. It is the keeper of the dollar and Treasury securities that are the core of the global financial system and a key pillar of Asia’s economic model. And now its credibility is potential roadkill, as Trump seeks to flip two different narratives. One is to dodge the... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2170368/which-scarier-us-fed-raising-interest-rates-or-donald-trump?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2170368/which-scarier-us-fed-raising-interest-rates-or-donald-trump?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 Oct 2018 02:15:15 +0000 For a chief executive famed for divining the super trends of tomorrow, SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son can sure miss the bigger plot at times. Saudi Arabia’s murder scandal wrecking Donald Trump’s October may devastate Son’s year. It’s anyone’s guess why the US president’s team is so bizarrely obsequious toward Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The controversy surrounding the fate of US-based Washington Post writer Jamal Khashoggi is a clear and present danger to Son’s vision. Japan’s richest man... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2169321/will-saudi-arabias-unfolding-scandal-cloud-us100-billion-vision-softbanks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2169321/will-saudi-arabias-unfolding-scandal-cloud-us100-billion-vision-softbanks?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 21 Oct 2018 03:15:30 +0000 In 2016, around the time Britons were dealing with “Brexit” trauma, Indians were bracing for “Rexit”. The reference here is to Raghuram Rajan, the then-outgoing Reserve Bank of India governor. Previously, Rajan was chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2003 to 2007. His real claim to fame, though, was so vocally predicting the subprime crisis. Rajan was dismissed as a Chicken Little – until Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, vindicating him. In 2013, he returned home to steer... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2168336/asias-2008-seer-worried-all-over-again?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2168336/asias-2008-seer-worried-all-over-again?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 14 Oct 2018 03:00:30 +0000 With stocks from New York to Tokyo going gangbusters, it’s hard to get excited about bond markets. In recent years, betting against government IOUs has become a “widow-maker” trade. Not so anymore, given last week’s burst of chaos in the US Treasury market. On October 3, 10-year yields jumped 11 basis points to 3.16 per cent, the highest since 2011. More than the magnitude, the worry for Asia is why the 15-year downward march in long-term rates may be over. Traders predictably grasped for... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2167166/rising-us-treasury-yields-clear-and-present-danger-asias?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2167166/rising-us-treasury-yields-clear-and-present-danger-asias?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 07 Oct 2018 02:34:56 +0000 Central bankers in Jakarta, Hong Kong and Manila had a busy week, hiking interest rates to keep pace with the US Federal Reserve. New Delhi telegraphed more tightening moves to come. But officials in Tokyo? Crickets. There is a positive spin to put on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hiking rates a third time in his short 237-day tenure. It’s a sign of confidence that the world’s biggest economy is vibrant enough to thrive without post-2008 emergency measures. Also, there’s an adult in the room as... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2166237/bank-japans-deafening-silence-amid-world-central-bankers?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2166237/bank-japans-deafening-silence-amid-world-central-bankers?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 30 Sep 2018 02:30:54 +0000 Did S&P just put a curse on Australia? The reference here is to the credit-rating equivalent of the magazine-cover jinx that companies and entire economies struggle to avoid. On Friday, S&P made headlines by upgrading the outlook Down Under, reckoning that Canberra’s budget surplus will reappear by the “early 2020s.” Great news for new Prime Minister Scott Morrison as he struggles to find his economic sea legs, you might say. It could just as easily signal a reverse karma effect – one with... https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/2165384/australia-canary-asias-trade-coal-mine-may-rue-its-slow-escape?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/2165384/australia-canary-asias-trade-coal-mine-may-rue-its-slow-escape?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 23 Sep 2018 06:30:30 +0000 Japan’s September 20 leadership contest has long been touted as a crowning achievement for Shinzo Abe. He will easily win a third term, becoming Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. Now, it’s looking like a poisoned chalice. Growth is slowing. Tokyo’s battle against deflation is fizzling. And Donald Trump’s trade war is sending intensifying headwinds Tokyo’s way. Mounting economic challenges could derail Abe’s headlong drive to revise the pacifist post-war constitution. True, Asia’s No 2... https://www.scmp.com/business/mutual-funds/article/2164248/plot-thickens-abes-third-term-japan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/mutual-funds/article/2164248/plot-thickens-abes-third-term-japan?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 16 Sep 2018 02:31:00 +0000 Who would’ve thought Asia’s fortunes might turn with the pages of a Bob Woodward book? That is a growing risk as US President Donald Trump goes berserk over Fear, Woodward’s incendiary look at a White House in crisis. Yet, not because China, South Korea and North Korea figure prominently in the narrative, but how Team Trump might lash out Asia’s way. Woodward’s depiction of Trump - essentially, that he is a national security threat - is pushing his rage, paranoia and unpredictability to new... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2163208/unhinged-woordwards-expose-trump-may-create-wag-dog-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2163208/unhinged-woordwards-expose-trump-may-create-wag-dog-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 09 Sep 2018 01:03:29 +0000 South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in did not blame Donald Trump for last week’s epic cabinet shake-up. But the US president’s name was written between the lines in bold type. President Moon axed five of his ministers overseeing everything from trade to labour to defence. Moon, 480 days in office, faces growing discontent over a slowing economy, an intensifying trade war and setbacks on North Korea disarmament. But his desperate ploy for stability speaks volumes about Asia’s precarious position in... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2162228/ally-trump-does-south-koreas-president-moon-jae-really-need?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2162228/ally-trump-does-south-koreas-president-moon-jae-really-need?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 02 Sep 2018 02:33:11 +0000 Tokyo’s 20-year quest for inflation had a rough July. Consumer prices stood at 0.8 per cent year-on-year, unchanged from June and a long way off from the Bank of Japan’s 2 per cent target. To understand what’s going wrong, economists are scrutinising data on money supply, bank credit dynamics and zigs and zags in business surveys. Yet all the insights Japanologists need can be found at Toyota Motor headquarters. Earlier this month, Japan Inc.’s premier name posted better-than-expected quarterly... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2161297/trumps-trade-war-undermines-japans-attempt-kick-stalling?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2161297/trumps-trade-war-undermines-japans-attempt-kick-stalling?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 26 Aug 2018 03:03:18 +0000 Forgotten amid Donald Trump’s trade war insanity and diplomatic dumpster fires was Asia’s biggest fear entering into 2018: an aggressive US Federal Reserve. Six months into his Fed chairmanship, Jerome Powell has been the picture of calm, probity and reason. His team only raised interest rates twice, 25 basis points in March and another step in June to a target of between 1.75 per cent and 2 per cent. But is the Fed about to reprise its role as the Asian spoiler? The odds are rising with a US... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2160330/week-stay-close-phone-global-central-bankers-gather-find?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2160330/week-stay-close-phone-global-central-bankers-gather-find?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Aug 2018 01:01:25 +0000 The Philippines just had its William McChesney Martin moment, and not a millisecond too soon. The reference here is to the long-serving, larger-than-life economist who helmed the US Federal Reserve from 1951 to 1970. It was Martin who famously said that a central banker’s job is to “take away the punchbowl just as the party gets going.” Filipinos witnessed their central bank Governor Nestor Espenilla Jnr doing just that on Thursday, a move aimed at restoring economic sobriety. It also was a... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2159197/asian-central-banks-are-getting-their-mojo-back-calling?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2159197/asian-central-banks-are-getting-their-mojo-back-calling?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 12 Aug 2018 04:47:27 +0000 Abenomics just had a great week. That’s the spin from boosters as Tokyo reclaims the mantle of Asia’s stock-market leadership from China. Japan never quite got over China surpassing its gross domestic product in 2011. China overtaking Japan’s stock market capitalisation in 2014 was yet another blow – one that, at least superficially, has been rectified. By week’s end, Japanese equities were worth US$6.17 trillion to China’s US$6.09 trillion, according to Bloomberg data. Yet Prime Minister Shinzo... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2158319/uncork-champagne-now-japans-place-top-stock-market-may-be?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2158319/uncork-champagne-now-japans-place-top-stock-market-may-be?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 05 Aug 2018 05:30:00 +0000 The Bank of Japan won’t shock global markets this week, no matter what rabid speculation you read in the financial pages. To understand why, let’s play a game of back to the future. Our first stop is 1994, when Yasuo Matsushita became the 27th BOJ governor. Matsushita, who died July 20 at 92, was at ground zero of the same “deflationary mindset” that the incumbent governor Haruhiko Kuroda is still struggling to defeat. Matsushita arrived four years after the 1980s Bubble Economy imploded, adding... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2157214/bank-japan-caught-between-trump-and-hard-place-must-also?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2157214/bank-japan-caught-between-trump-and-hard-place-must-also?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 29 Jul 2018 03:30:30 +0000 Donald Trump is irked about many things – China’s trade policies, Russia-related investigations, critics in the media. Now, add the Federal Reserve to the US president’s fed-up list. Trump finding a foe in his own Fed head, Jerome Powell, would be dreadful for Asian economies, companies and investors. The spectre of the most powerful leader brawling with the world’s top monetary authority throws yet another imponderable at a region on the ropes. In 2013, developing markets quaked at the mere... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2156317/americas-creditors-are-fed-trumps-squander-us-economic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2156317/americas-creditors-are-fed-trumps-squander-us-economic?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 22 Jul 2018 03:15:45 +0000 With the world’s two biggest economies in an all-out brawl, it’s easy to miss important warning signs flashing in smaller ones. Take Singapore and South Korea. Singapore’s economy just grew at the slowest pace in a year. The 1 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth rate between April and June isn’t alarming in itself. Yet virtually everything that could go wrong is showing up in the data: fallout from Donald Trump’s trade war, central bank tightening, a stronger dollar and rising oil prices. An... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2155142/when-worlds-economic-giants-wage-trade-war-heat-felt?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2155142/when-worlds-economic-giants-wage-trade-war-heat-felt?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 15 Jul 2018 23:45:30 +0000 It’s the BBC documentary Prime Minister Shinzo Abe doesn’t want you to see. Ostensibly, “Japan’s Secret Shame” tells the story of journalist Shiori Ito’s rape allegations against a prominent male media personality. But it also hints at a bigger story: why Abenomics is stumbling. Japan’s notoriously docile media is reluctant even to mention the name of Ito’s alleged attacker. Tokyo Broadcasting System’s Noriyuki Yamaguchi is known to have close ties with Abe. To many, the lack of charges against... https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2154328/japans-quiet-metoo-moment-economic-indicator?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2154328/japans-quiet-metoo-moment-economic-indicator?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 09 Jul 2018 00:45:30 +0000 Foxconn Technology Group’s billionaire founder Terry Gou says the world is overreacting to Donald Trump’s trade war. Softbank’s chairman Masayoshi Son says he’ll invest US$50 billion in America because of the US president’s “passion” and “energy”. There’s only one logical response to such views from two of Asia’s smartest CEOs: Huh? On June 28, Gou and Son joined Trump in the US state of Wisconsin, where Foxconn is opening a US$10 billion plant. Trump, not surprisingly, used the groundbreaking... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2153097/asias-chief-executives-do-not-work-donald-trump-or-do-they?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2153097/asias-chief-executives-do-not-work-donald-trump-or-do-they?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 01 Jul 2018 05:35:04 +0000 As Donald Trump throws grenades at the global trading system, investors are caught in the crossfire of tit-for-tat retaliatory steps. China is hitting back. So are Canada, the European Union and even India. But recent moves by Russia may be most ominous of all. Granted, Moscow is not officially linking its decision to halve its holdings of US treasuries – from US$109 billion in May 2017 to about US$48 billion now – with US tariffs. The selling accelerated in recent months, and the timing is no... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2152215/are-trumps-asian-bankers-about-call-their-loans?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2152215/are-trumps-asian-bankers-about-call-their-loans?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 24 Jun 2018 09:00:30 +0000 In his 63 months helming the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda has run into many an obstacle: frugal consumers, testy politicians, skittish corporate executives, assertive currency traders. But the mercurial US president may trump them all. It’s not like Governor Kuroda’s historic easing programme was gaining great traction when Barack Obama was in office. Even today, inflation is, at best, halfway to Tokyo’s 2 per cent target. But 513 days of the Donald Trump administration are proving to be quite... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2151038/bank-japans-attempt-reflating-economy-getting-trumped-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2151038/bank-japans-attempt-reflating-economy-getting-trumped-us?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 17 Jun 2018 02:04:03 +0000 Whatever happens in Singapore on June 12, the planned Donald Trump-Kim Jong-un summit has already produced one casualty: South Korea’s economy. In May 2017, Moon Jae-in took office with a strong mandate to raise South Korea’s game. At the time, predecessor Park Geun-hye was in a prison cell and Samsung, South Korea’s biggest and most cherished company, was embroiled in scandal. Voters turned to Moon to rein in the family-owned conglomerates towering over Asia’s fourth-biggest economy, one with... https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2149939/while-world-breathes-easier-trump-kim-detente-south-koreas?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2149939/while-world-breathes-easier-trump-kim-detente-south-koreas?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 10 Jun 2018 03:02:53 +0000 For a man of his vintage, 87, George Soros has some serious social-media-age game. Arguably no one in finance gets under US President Donald Trump’s skin - or that of his investing peers - more than the Hungarian-turned-American billionaire. Soros did it again last week, lighting up Twitter with warnings that “another major financial crisis” is looming. He trolled the Twitter president by connecting the dots to his White House. In tweets and speeches, Soros said turmoil in Italy reminds us that... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2148833/its-time-get-pop-corn-and-buckle-your-seat-belts-soros-gets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2148833/its-time-get-pop-corn-and-buckle-your-seat-belts-soros-gets?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 03 Jun 2018 02:00:25 +0000 For Silicon Valley, this has been a certifiably nutty month. Between Elon Musk’s bizarre musings, governments chiding Facebook and Google, Snapchat bleeding advertisers and White House schizophrenia on ZTE, innovators and investors alike are probably drinking less coffee and more California red. But the biggest disruption of the last 30 days came from the East -– from Japan’s billion-dollar man. No one is upsetting the Silicon Valley apple cart more than SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son. Over the last... https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2147780/asias-us200-billion-man-would-be-better-placed-consider?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2147780/asias-us200-billion-man-would-be-better-placed-consider?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 27 May 2018 03:03:21 +0000 Donald Trump’s is the White House that can’t shoot straight, policy-wise. But last week highlighted the extent to which key Trump team members are firing at each other, and in ways that should worry emerging markets. Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He visited Washington to tamp down the threat of a giant trade war. The real stand-off, though, is between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trump adviser Peter Navarro. Mnuchin favours a US-China trade; Navarro wants to build a great wall of isolation... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2146965/trumps-naive-nobel-prize-goal-creating-false-hope-us-china-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2146965/trumps-naive-nobel-prize-goal-creating-false-hope-us-china-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 20 May 2018 12:30:15 +0000 The last three months gave Southeast Asia little to celebrate. The MSCI Asean Index has suffered amid US-China trade-war threats, rising global bond yields and fears markets had peaked. Now comes a burst of stellar news –- from Malaysia, of all places. For many, Mahathir Mohamad’s return to power might seem reason to run for cover. The idea that a 92-year-old populist firebrand who wreaked havoc during the 1997 Asian crisis is a “buy” signal might indeed sound absurd. As prime minister from 1981... https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2145772/bullish-sign-malaysia-all-places?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2145772/bullish-sign-malaysia-all-places?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 13 May 2018 02:03:14 +0000 As a political noose tightens around Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s premiership in Tokyo, investors are buzzing about something else tightening – Japanese monetary policy. No, not because the Bank of Japan is getting closer to 2 per cent inflation – it is only about halfway there. And not because growth is exceeding expectations. Gross domestic product may have slowed to 0.5 per cent in the first quarter from 1.6 per cent in the fourth. Based on these two realities, one could argue the BOJ... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2144732/why-bank-japan-could-still-shock-markets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2144732/why-bank-japan-could-still-shock-markets?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 06 May 2018 04:00:40 +0000 The leaders of Asia’s four biggest economies have been plenty busy of late. China’s Xi Jinping is flirting with India’s Narendra Modi. Japan’s Shinzo Abe is engaged in a long game of diplomacy with South Korea’s Moon Jae-in, as well as with Xi and Modi. Fascinating theatre all around. Important, too. The more this region’s four most powerful leaders cooperate, the better it is for humankind. But real change happens at home. And what makes Xi, Abe, Modi and Moon so fascinating is that each... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2143738/starting-change-home-how-india-bests-south-korea-china-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2143738/starting-change-home-how-india-bests-south-korea-china-and?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 29 Apr 2018 05:15:15 +0000 Another day, another US$50 billion of tariffs thrown haphazardly at the global economy. Make it US$100 billion next time, if Donald Trump’s latest threat is to be believed. Rather than making America great again, the White House seems set on establishing an own-goal record. Trump’s chaotic and erratic swings (and misses) are slamming markets from New York to Tokyo and trolling China, the No. 2 economy, into retaliation. Ever a counterpuncher, Trump is sure to retort with yet bigger blows. This... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2140795/trumps-chaotic-trade-crusade-making-emerging-markets-great?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2140795/trumps-chaotic-trade-crusade-making-emerging-markets-great?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Apr 2018 11:00:30 +0000 In one of his last press conferences as governor, Zhou Xiaochuan urged a “gradual” internationalisation of policies at the People’s Bank of China, a go-slow approach allowing space to open markets, reduce capital borders and curb risk. His replacement may not enjoy that luxury as he confronts a world economy unwilling to wait. Yi Gang inherits an institution that, ready or not, is being drawn into the fray of globalisation faster than Communist Party bigwigs might like. That’s partly a product... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2138274/globalisation-peoples-bank-china-puts-pressure-yi-gang-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2138274/globalisation-peoples-bank-china-puts-pressure-yi-gang-world?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Mar 2018 03:30:19 +0000 When Rodrigo Duterte ran for the Philippine presidency in 2016, the international media couldn’t help but label the firebrand the Donald Trump of Southeast Asia. Little did we know it might turn out to be the other way around. Few thought in May 2016, when Duterte won, that Trump would similarly shock humankind 183 days later. The hope, of course, was that the real-estate-mogul-turned-politician would turn his business acumen into a governing strategy and channel his inner Ronald Reagan.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2137185/donald-trumps-dutertefication-white-house-has-global?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2137185/donald-trumps-dutertefication-white-house-has-global?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 15 Mar 2018 03:06:17 +0000 Should China label Donald Trump’s America a currency manipulator? It’s doubtful that President Xi Jinping would call Washington on its devaluation gambit. Beijing has ample ammunition, though, to yell hypocrisy with the dollar down about 10 per cent in the year since Trump’s inauguration. Two weeks ago, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin even declared dead the 23-year-old strong-dollar policy. Yet the real fireworks – and threats to Asia’s biggest economy – are yet to come. No one believes... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2132531/tools-trade-war-trumps-tariffs-may-hurt-his-asian-allies?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2132531/tools-trade-war-trumps-tariffs-may-hurt-his-asian-allies?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 09 Feb 2018 05:15:00 +0000