https://www.scmp.com/rss/283498/feed en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Judging by China’s export performance in the past two years, there is little evidence that developed countries are decoupling from the country. On the contrary, China’s global market share has risen substantially due to gains in developed markets. But what about decoupling by China? Is China increasingly turning inward, as some fear, and its growth becoming less import-intensive? Not obviously, our analysis shows. It is true that the importance of international trade to China’s economy has... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3146696/little-sign-china-decoupling-rest-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3146696/little-sign-china-decoupling-rest-world?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 30 Aug 2021 22:45:18 +0000 China marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of its People’s Republic on Tuesday, reaching both a notable moment in the story of its ruling Communist Party but, more significantly, what may well be a watershed period in its economic history. After a remarkable four-decade run of headlong growth that has transformed its economy and society, and stunned the world, China is approaching a crucial turning point. Already the world’s second largest economy in market exchange rate terms, the largest... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3030689/chinas-economic-expectations-rest-future-faultlines-west-70th?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3030689/chinas-economic-expectations-rest-future-faultlines-west-70th?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 28 Sep 2019 00:15:04 +0000 At the start of the year, most forecasters and observers – including ourselves – expected global trade growth to strengthen in 2014, building on the recovery that began last year. Yet, instead, trade momentum has lost steam recently. Demand seems to have turned more fragile, with reports that export prospects are subdued and uncertain. This is holding back investment and growth in export-dependent countries, which has spillover effects on other economies. A pattern is emerging. Since the 2008... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1616189/not-so-great-expectations-growth-global-trade-remains?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1616189/not-so-great-expectations-growth-global-trade-remains?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 14 Oct 2014 07:15:30 +0000 Fears that China is heading for a hard economic landing or even a systemic crisis because of problems in its shadow banking sector are exaggerated. The spectacular growth in credit has lifted China's debt-to-GDP ratio to over 200 per cent and loan quality has worsened. That has increased the risk of defaults this year. Policy changes from a government keen to rein in excessive lending are adding to the pressure on borrowers. And foreign media have seized on predictions from some economists that... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1491798/china-can-handle-shadow-banking-threat?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1491798/china-can-handle-shadow-banking-threat?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 20 Apr 2014 19:11:46 +0000 China's leaders are likely to disappoint those hoping for sweeping economic reforms at the third plenum of the Communist Party's 18th Central Committee. Luckily, the Chinese economy is sufficiently robust that growth will not be derailed by a failure to tackle a series of intractable problems. Not for now at least. Where there is little resistance to change - for example, on financial and monetary reform - we could see real progress. Broad agreement within policymaking circles means we may also... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1348344/expect-modest-reform-road-map-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1348344/expect-modest-reform-road-map-china?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Nov 2013 10:45:00 +0000 Investors may have been too quick to jettison Asian assets during their recent pullback from emerging markets. While some economies, including India and Indonesia, have proved vulnerable to fears of scarcer global liquidity, Asia's emerging economies still boast stronger macro fundamentals and are better prepared for capital outflows than during earlier crises. Asian economies have stronger current account positions now and Asia's most important economy, China, is additionally protected by... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1306307/no-reason-investor-panic-over-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1306307/no-reason-investor-panic-over-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Sep 2013 16:00:00 +0000 Xi Jinping and China's other new leaders take charge of a slowing economy and an increasingly vocal populace demanding cleaner government, better welfare and more affordable housing. Only modest progress has been made at shifting the economy from an investment-led, industrial model to one driven more by consumers and the services sector. Investors expecting the new administration to respond with rapid reforms or a major fiscal stimulus are likely to be disappointed. The government of Xi, who was... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1084098/new-leadership-likely-maintain-pro-growth-policies?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1084098/new-leadership-likely-maintain-pro-growth-policies?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 Nov 2012 16:00:00 +0000