https://www.scmp.com/rss/287817/feed en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Lost among the attention given to China’s record crude oil imports in December was the fact that the nation’s exports of refined fuels also hit an all-time high. Crude imports surged 21.4 per cent in the final month of 2015 to hit 7.82 million barrels per day (bpd), taking the average for the whole year to 6.71 million bpd, another record and a gain of about 8.8 per cent, or 542,600 bpd, over 2014. There is little doubt that China has been taking advantage of the relentless decline in crude... https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1902219/chinas-record-fuel-exports-show-changing-economic-dynamics?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1902219/chinas-record-fuel-exports-show-changing-economic-dynamics?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 18 Jan 2016 00:16:32 +0000 If 2015 was the year in which the growing oversupply of key commodities led to a rout in prices, will 2016 bring the point of capitulation, leading to consolidation and the start of recovery? That would certainly be the hope of many beleaguered commodity producers, be they members of Opec, shale gas drillers in North America or the big companies that bet their futures on what they thought would be China’s endless appetite for coal, iron ore, copper and liquefied natural gas (LNG). But the... https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1893670/2016-commodity-story-hoping-your-rivals-will-die?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1893670/2016-commodity-story-hoping-your-rivals-will-die?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 21 Dec 2015 04:14:08 +0000 It may seem like stating the obvious, but top miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have said recently that they expect commodities prices to remain subdued. While it is important that two of the world’s top three mining companies acknowledge what the rest of the market has believed for some time, what’s more important is how they respond to the realities they now face. The first reality is that growth has slowed in China by more than the resource companies, and indeed most market analysts, expected... https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1888003/now-big-miners-accept-reality-low-commodity-prices-will?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1888003/now-big-miners-accept-reality-low-commodity-prices-will?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 07 Dec 2015 06:22:03 +0000 How do you go from being the worst per capita polluter to among the lowest in just 15 years? The Australian Greens believe they have the answer, and surprisingly it could actually work, as long as it’s tweaked to find some role for coal and natural gas. At the outset, it’s worth noting that the Greens’ vision has virtually no chance of becoming government policy, given the party holds only one seat in Australia’s lower house of parliament and just 10 of the 76 in the upper house Senate. But in... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1882580/worst-polluter-climate-leader-australias-greens-have?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1882580/worst-polluter-climate-leader-australias-greens-have?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 24 Nov 2015 07:18:01 +0000 Let’s assume that you are a somewhat contrarian investor and take the view that the recent slump to fresh lows in commodity prices, and the share prices of producers, is a sign that a turnaround is coming in 2016. If you do take this view, is it better to buy the actual commodities or the shares of the companies that extract them? Unfortunately there is no clear precedent from recent history to suggest that one will significantly outpace the other, but that doesn’t mean there’s no value in... https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1879270/whats-best-bet-commodities-or-miners?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1879270/whats-best-bet-commodities-or-miners?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 16 Nov 2015 08:50:35 +0000 There is widespread scepticism about the accuracy of mainland China's economic growth numbers, but the real question shouldn’t be whether the data is credible, it should be whether it matters that it isn’t. The official year-on-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth figure of 6.9 per cent for the September quarter was widely condemned by mainly Western economists as a fiction bearing little resemblance to actual economic activity. At the World Commodities Week conference in London last week,... https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1872235/chinas-economic-data-dodgy-it-doesnt-matter-commodities?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/commodities/article/1872235/chinas-economic-data-dodgy-it-doesnt-matter-commodities?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 26 Oct 2015 07:29:32 +0000 With the prices of many major commodities currently plumbing depths last seen six years ago, what are the chances of a repeat of the China-led boom that lifted resources out of the 2008 recession funk? To answer the question it’s worth looking at what is the same and what is different about the weakness in commodity prices between 2008-09 and now, and the answer is not much is the same. The main similarity is simply that prices are weak and have fallen precipitously in a relatively short period... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1852364/no-china-around-rescue-commodities-rout-2015?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1852364/no-china-around-rescue-commodities-rout-2015?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 25 Aug 2015 05:10:21 +0000 It seems coal miners and traders just can’t catch a break, with a rebound in China’s imports being tempered by early signs of a turning point in India’s import growth. The main problem for coal exporters such as Australia, Indonesia and South Africa is that China’s surge in imports in July is unlikely to be sustained, while India’s decline may well be the start of a longer-lasting trend. China, the world’s biggest producer and importer of coal, brought in 21.26 million tonnes in July, up 28.1... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1848429/no-break-coal-miners-china-india-imports?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1848429/no-break-coal-miners-china-india-imports?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 11 Aug 2015 01:08:32 +0000 One of the more fanciful notions from the recent rally in iron ore prices is that the steel-making ingredient is now back in a bull market. Asian spot iron ore does meet the technical definition of being in a bull market, having gained 25.4 per cent between its record low of US$44.10 a tonne on July 8 and the close of $55.30 on July 29. Markets are said to be in a bull phase when the rally exceeds 20 per cent, likewise they are in a bear period when the decline is greater than 20 per... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1846312/iron-ores-bull-market-shows-rise-financial-trading?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1846312/iron-ores-bull-market-shows-rise-financial-trading?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 04 Aug 2015 02:15:45 +0000 "New normal" is a term coined about China’s transition to slower but hopefully more sustainable economic growth, but it can be equally applied to many commodity markets. This reality was well illustrated by the Australian government’s latest set of forecasts for the country’s commodity exports, which highlighted we are now in an era of low prices but strong volumes. Australia’s official forecasts carry weight because the country is the world’s largest exporter of iron ore and metallurgical coal,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1831635/new-normal-australia-commodities-low-prices-and-strong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1831635/new-normal-australia-commodities-low-prices-and-strong?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Jul 2015 04:15:15 +0000