https://www.scmp.com/rss/301154/feed The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 was widely blamed on the subprime crisis and its fallout, which led to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, with the US government forced to bail out AIG, and to rescue both General Motors and Chrysler, while also adding liquidity to avert a severe credit crunch in the banking sector. Banks in Europe, the US and Britain also came under extreme pressure and the GFC contributed to the euro zone sovereign debt crisis. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley If financial markets can survive the United States’ war on Iran and Russia’s war against Ukraine, does this mean that financial crashes have become a thing of the past? Or have markets just not grasped the true nature of the current threats to the financial system? The latter is almost certainly the case, as former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein suggested when he said in a recent Financial Times interview that people had “got more complacent” about financial risks since the 2008 crisis. It is... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345580/cause-next-global-market-crash-hiding-plain-sight?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345580/cause-next-global-market-crash-hiding-plain-sight?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 07 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Peggy Ye Peggy Ye When Alex Barnes and his team finally closed the two largest single-tenant office leasing deals Central has seen in more than a decade, the outcome was decisive – but the path there was anything but quick. Barnes, the co-CEO in Greater China and managing director in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau at JLL, advised quantitative trading firm Jane Street Asia on a record-setting lease at Central Yards, followed months later by a six-floor commitment from hedge fund Qube Research & Technologies at Two... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3342806/how-two-landmark-central-deals-boost-sentiment-hong-kongs-office-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3342806/how-two-landmark-central-deals-boost-sentiment-hong-kongs-office-market?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Feb 2026 06:00:16 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Some weighty themes were addressed at the World Economic Forum in Davos, from the apparent return of the Monroe Doctrine and US “manifest destiny” in geopolitics, to a replay of the 19th-century “Great Game” among competing nations elsewhere. But one critical issue that did not receive sufficient attention was the prospect of a global financial system crisis undermining such monumental assumptions. These annual gatherings of the supposedly great and good, from national leaders to business barons... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3340902/distracted-davos-leaders-are-ignoring-one-critical-issue?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3340902/distracted-davos-leaders-are-ignoring-one-critical-issue?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 24 Jan 2026 08:30:12 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng By any measure, 2025 will be remembered as a tipping point. Violent armed conflict escalated in many areas, notably Ukraine, Israel-Gaza-Iran-Lebanon, Pakistan-India, Thailand-Cambodia, Venezuela, Sudan, Ethiopia and Myanmar. It was also among the three hottest years on record and one of the most expensive for natural disaster costs. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s tariff wars inflicted trade uncertainty and strategically shifted global supply chains. Technology witnessed massive leaps in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338435/can-europe-survive-its-crippling-paralysis?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338435/can-europe-survive-its-crippling-paralysis?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 02 Jan 2026 21:30:10 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Stock prices are nervously high, bond and real estate prices are under downward pressure, cryptocurrency assets have sustained falls and global debt is at record levels. One common factor behind these coinciding and worrying trends is that much of the world is living on excess credit. Payment is now due. Another is how markets have bloated as financial systems fail to properly channel savings into good investments. This all suggests the coming correction in financial markets will be more... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335270/inflated-asset-prices-show-markets-dont-always-know-best?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335270/inflated-asset-prices-show-markets-dont-always-know-best?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 06 Dec 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng In 2004, Joshua Cooper Ramo, now co-CEO of Kissinger Associates, coined the term “Beijing Consensus” as an alternative to the Washington Consensus, the neoliberal framework of economic policies devised in the 1980s by the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and US Treasury. China had just joined the World Trade Organization and, within the country, there was considerable scepticism that a Beijing Consensus existed. Come 2007, and as the global financial crisis broke out – first with the US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3333564/rise-beijing-led-global-south-consensus?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3333564/rise-beijing-led-global-south-consensus?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 21 Nov 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Richard Harris Richard Harris Economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped that stock markets accurately predicted nine of the last five recessions. The same could be said of financial economists. So-called leading indicators like market sentiment swing with the daily news. Optimism is the default option but bull markets die hard. Still, most seasoned financial economists now recognise that stock markets are becoming more fragile. And so does the crowd. The frequency of online searches for “stock market bubble” has surged since... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331666/amid-fragile-markets-how-predict-when-bubble-will-burst?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331666/amid-fragile-markets-how-predict-when-bubble-will-burst?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Nov 2025 21:30:09 +0000 David Tingxuan Zhang David Tingxuan Zhang Few outside China might know that e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com host the country’s largest online platforms for distressed property sales. On any given day, their auction websites offer a front-row view of China’s housing downturn where properties are foreclosed and liquidated under court orders, often at market-shaking discounts. A month ago, 66 flat units in a Shanghai project owned by indebted developer Sunac were put up for auction after being seized by courts. Buyers were found but... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3330176/amid-wave-foreclosures-chinas-homeowners-could-use-break?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3330176/amid-wave-foreclosures-chinas-homeowners-could-use-break?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 25 Oct 2025 21:30:07 +0000 James David Spellman James David Spellman JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s remark that “when you see one cockroach, there are probably more” is a blunt reminder of the global financial crisis in 2008. At the time, a flood of bad mortgages had revealed a tenuous labyrinth of complex, highly vulnerable financial products that saw some US investment banks collapse and equity markets struggle for six years to recover losses. Evidence is mounting that we are approaching danger again, with revelations of bad debt exposure for regional and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3329661/bad-debt-cockroaches-signal-new-threats-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3329661/bad-debt-cockroaches-signal-new-threats-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Oct 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Enoch Yiu Enoch Yiu AIA Group chairman Edmund Tse Sze-wing achieved more for his company after retiring than many executives do in their whole careers. At 71, Tse was already past normal retirement age in 2009 when he retired for the first time, only to have the global financial crisis bring him back to the office from the tennis court – for another 14 years. Just a few months after returning, Tse led AIA through its Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO). The HK$159.1 billion (US$20.4 billion) listing – still the... https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3317879/retiring-aia-chairman-edmund-tse-reflects-64-years-hong-kong-based-insurer?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3317879/retiring-aia-chairman-edmund-tse-reflects-64-years-hong-kong-based-insurer?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 13 Jul 2025 23:30:09 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Fashionable, frivolous or downright foolish? Which of these words best describes the trend in markets toward derivatives, cryptocurrencies, digital assets and tokens as supplements or alternatives to traditional finance? Where is this great “paper chase” leading? For one thing, it is likely to be causing a flight into gold. But unless gold is remonetised and mining output is stepped up sharply, that trend could lead to deflation and limited economic growth. So a retreat to sustainable safety... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3314109/how-obsession-risky-assets-putting-global-finance-peril?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3314109/how-obsession-risky-assets-putting-global-finance-peril?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 14 Jun 2025 08:30:07 +0000 Lily Z. King Lily Z. King In recent months, the global financial system has seen seismic shifts that underscore the rising relevance of digital assets. US spot bitcoin ETFs, exchange-traded funds that allow people to invest indirectly in bitcoin, have seen explosive growth to more than US$120 billion in assets, reflecting a dramatic shift in investor behaviour. Stablecoin transactions, meanwhile, surged to over US$27 trillion last year, eclipsing the total for Visa and Mastercard. In Asia, Hong Kong has emerged as a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3310717/cryptocurrencies-are-emerging-digital-gold-shaky-world-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3310717/cryptocurrencies-are-emerging-digital-gold-shaky-world-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 20 May 2025 08:30:07 +0000 Andrew Mertha Andrew Mertha Trying to predict any country’s international behaviour is fraught with challenges. That is even more the case when that country’s political system is opaque, as is China’s. We depend on clues, turns of phrases drawn from leaders’ speeches, shards of evidence gleaned from people on the ground, and various theories (or biases in disguise). We have spent much time analysing China’s geostrategic ambitions. Much ink has been spilled on the Thucydides Trap, the notion of “peak power” or the radical... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3309241/why-china-has-refused-back-down-face-trumps-tariffs?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3309241/why-china-has-refused-back-down-face-trumps-tariffs?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 May 2025 21:30:08 +0000 The IMF is delivering stark warnings about the damaging impact of tariffs and other US actions on the global economy and financial markets. But it may be too little too late to avoid a financial meltdown and global recession. “Financial markets volatility is up. And trade policy uncertainty is literally off the charts,” said Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, in Washington for the IMF/World Bank spring meetings. “This is a reminder that we live in a world... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306954/imfs-tariff-warnings-may-be-too-little-too-late?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306954/imfs-tariff-warnings-may-be-too-little-too-late?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 19 Apr 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Enoch Yiu Enoch Yiu Stock markets rise and fall, but there are days when the plunge defies gravity. The Hang Seng Index slumped 13.2 per cent on Monday, its worst drop in percentage terms since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. However, some brokers are bullish the market will soon find a bottom and rebound as it has done so many times in the past. How bad was the slump? The Hang Seng Index sank 13.2 per cent to 19,828.30, but the decline was far worse than those seen in other Asian markets, which slumped between 4... https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/3305564/where-does-hang-seng-indexs-13-slump-rank-among-other-major-crashes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/3305564/where-does-hang-seng-indexs-13-slump-rank-among-other-major-crashes?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 07 Apr 2025 14:37:06 +0000 Monday’s stock market collapses in Asia and Europe after China retaliated for steep US tariffs revived memories of similar market turmoil after the Covid pandemic and the last global financial crisis. Analysts called the falls “historic” and some even described it as a “bloodbath”, recalling previous collapses since the start of the last century. Global stocks crashed in March 2020 after the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a pandemic, putting much of the world under lockdown. On... https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3305541/wall-streets-black-thursday-covid-19-how-trumps-tariffs-compare-worst-crashes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3305541/wall-streets-black-thursday-covid-19-how-trumps-tariffs-compare-worst-crashes?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 07 Apr 2025 10:40:22 +0000 Associated Press Associated Press New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Conservative opponent will kick off their election campaigns on Sunday against the backdrop of a trade war and annexation threats from US President Donald Trump. Carney will trigger a five-week election campaign on Sunday, before the vote on April 28, when he visits at midday Governor-General Mary Simon – who holds a constitutional and ceremonial role as the representative of Canada’s head of state, King Charles III – to request the Parliament be... https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3303541/canada-votes-carney-seeks-strong-mandate-deal-trump?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3303541/canada-votes-carney-seeks-strong-mandate-deal-trump?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 23 Mar 2025 13:42:11 +0000 Since the global financial crisis of 2007-08, private credit – nonbank lending from institutional investors direct to businesses or individuals – has gone from strength to strength. In Europe and the United States, it now forms an established part of the corporate financing firmament as banks pull back from traditional lending. According to Macquarie Asset Management in November 2023, the global private credit market is now estimated at around US$1.2 trillion, with annual fundraising growing... https://www.scmp.com/special-reports/article/3302662/no-longer-niche-how-private-credit-transforming-apac-lending-landscape?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/special-reports/article/3302662/no-longer-niche-how-private-credit-transforming-apac-lending-landscape?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 17 Mar 2025 09:00:17 +0000 Reuters Reuters Mark Carney, soon to become Canada’s new prime minister, is a two-time central banker and crisis fighter about to face his biggest challenge of all: steering Canada through Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Liberals announced Carney as Justin Trudeau’s successor on Sunday after party members voted in a nominating contest. Trudeau resigned in January, facing low approval ratings after nearly a decade in office. The 59-year-old Carney is a political outsider who has never held office, which would in... https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3301715/mark-carney-crisis-fighting-central-banker-lead-canada-through-us-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3301715/mark-carney-crisis-fighting-central-banker-lead-canada-through-us-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 09 Mar 2025 23:25:21 +0000 Hong Kong’s recent budget measures, announced by Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po, aim to balance fiscal prudence with economic recovery by increasing revenue while controlling government expenditure and minimising the impact on the public. They highlight the city’s struggle to implement sustainable solutions to its structural fiscal issues, which have persisted for years. Key budget measures include a pay freeze for civil servants – including personnel in the executive authorities,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3301198/pay-freezes-wont-fix-hong-kongs-chronic-fiscal-problems?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3301198/pay-freezes-wont-fix-hong-kongs-chronic-fiscal-problems?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 07 Mar 2025 01:30:09 +0000 China’s leaders have set out to deliver a jolt to the stalled recovery of the world’s second-biggest economy. They are ready to deploy a range of measures that would loosen the government’s purse strings in an attempt to ensure critical growth targets are met in the year ahead. They include providing ample liquidity by raising the deficit ratio, issuing special bonds, cutting the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve instead of lending and cutting interest rates. The focus of these measures,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/article/3290571/china-leaves-no-doubt-way-forward-key-economic-talks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/article/3290571/china-leaves-no-doubt-way-forward-key-economic-talks?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Dec 2024 16:38:07 +0000 When Donald Trump was elected in 2016, some were shocked that a demagogue could win the US presidency. When he was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020, some establishment elites hoped a “normal” presidency would return. However, Trump’s electoral comeback signals he is not an accident or aberration in American politics. The New York Times considers him a transformational force reshaping the US in his image. Conversely, people and demographics can also shape leaders. Many Americans echo his conspiracy... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3289010/trumps-america-reveals-inconvenient-truths-about-world-turmoil?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3289010/trumps-america-reveals-inconvenient-truths-about-world-turmoil?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 04 Dec 2024 21:30:07 +0000 The curse of wealth has come upon America – that of abundant capital inflows, inflated financial asset values and a strong dollar. These are conditions that can test the ability of any financial system to absorb shocks and expose its hidden vulnerabilities. The US may, ironically, be about to experience a version of the trauma that struck Asian economies in the run up to the 1997 crisis when the region received huge and ultimately destabilising flows of foreign portfolio investment. At first... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3288567/america-awash-global-capital-risks-spreading-financial-instability?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3288567/america-awash-global-capital-risks-spreading-financial-instability?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 30 Nov 2024 08:30:08 +0000 In less than a week, global attention might shift from the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to Brazil, where G20 leaders will meet. Originally an informal forum of finance ministers and central bank governors, the platform was upgraded in 2009, in response to the global financial crisis, to a premier cooperation forum for world leaders. There was no codified list of criteria that led to the “Group of 20”, comprising 19 countries, the European Union (EU) and, as of last year, the African... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3285461/heres-how-g20-can-be-more-talk-shop?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3285461/heres-how-g20-can-be-more-talk-shop?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 13 Nov 2024 08:30:09 +0000 Two weeks before the US presidential election on November 5, we have Kamala Harris, who took over the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden, up against Republican contender Donald Trump, running for the third time. This presidential campaign has not been the norm, especially when we consider the extraordinary concerns over the sitting president’s faculties and the assassination attempts on Trump. The criticality of this election lies not in who wins, but in how the loser’s supporters would... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3283262/after-divisive-election-will-us-be-able-come-back-together-again?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3283262/after-divisive-election-will-us-be-able-come-back-together-again?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 22 Oct 2024 12:30:07 +0000 To maximise the impact of any new stimulus package, Beijing should be ready to spend bigger than the 4 trillion yuan (US$564.7 billion) rolled out after the 2008 financial crisis – but the long-term consequences of that previous response, said outspoken economist Yu Yongding, should remind policymakers to think and act carefully. For the best chance to re-energise the country’s economy in one fell swoop, the former adviser to the People’s Bank of China said in an exclusive interview, the... https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3282480/chinese-economist-calls-massive-stimulus-saying-2008s-4tr-yuan-not-enough?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3282480/chinese-economist-calls-massive-stimulus-saying-2008s-4tr-yuan-not-enough?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Oct 2024 02:00:12 +0000 This is the first in a three-part series delving into the unprecedented challenges China is facing on its road to economic recovery, from inexperience in dealing with such crises to the compounding implications of internal demographic shifts and external trade hurdles. The topsy-turvy roller-coaster ride that has seen China’s economy teetering on the rails for the past four years has left Zack Yao clinging to whatever business he can muster while struggling to determine when the wild ride will... https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3281908/depth-look-chinas-economic-crisis-and-why-inexperience-fuelling-fire?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3281908/depth-look-chinas-economic-crisis-and-why-inexperience-fuelling-fire?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Oct 2024 22:00:15 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng On October 19, 1987, after three days of decline in the New York stock market, the Hong Kong market dropped by 10.5 per cent after a rise of 89 per cent in the previous 12 months. Black Monday had triggered a worldwide stock crash. In US dollars terms, eight stock markets declined by 20-29 per cent, three by 30-39 per cent and three more (Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore) by more than 40 per cent. Total losses were estimated at US$1.7 trillion – nearly 10 per cent of the global economy in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3281903/black-monday-lesson-1987-reform-financial-crisis-makes-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3281903/black-monday-lesson-1987-reform-financial-crisis-makes-us?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Oct 2024 12:30:09 +0000 Enoch Yiu Enoch Yiu Middle Eastern traders will soon be able to invest in Hong Kong stocks via two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking benchmarks in the city once they are listed on the Saudi stock exchange at the end of this month. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po will lead a delegation comprising scores of local regulators and financiers to the FII conference in Riyadh and to mark the launch of the ETFs, according to Julia Leung Fung-yee, CEO of the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC). “The two ETFs... https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3281256/saudi-arabia-opens-doors-hong-kong-stocks-launch-2-etfs-month-end-sfc-ceo?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3281256/saudi-arabia-opens-doors-hong-kong-stocks-launch-2-etfs-month-end-sfc-ceo?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 06 Oct 2024 23:00:19 +0000 “Our money is running out.” That is the constant refrain I have heard from mainlanders since the end of 2022, when China suddenly lifted the zero-Covid restrictions which had hit the economy hard. More than a million restaurants have reportedly shut down across the country in the first half of this year, close to the total for the whole of last year as consumers scaled back their spending. Retail sales rose only 2.1 per cent year on year in August despite the summer travel peak, down from a rise... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3281034/chinas-stimulus-will-fall-short-without-private-sector-confidence?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3281034/chinas-stimulus-will-fall-short-without-private-sector-confidence?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:30:08 +0000 Chinese leaders surprised the world last week by announcing wide-ranging stimulus measures and issuing a rallying cry to Communist Party officials in a bid to lift a weary property sector, stoke consumption and revive capital markets – all hallmarks of China’s economically challenging 2024. China has tried writ-large stimulus before. Here we take a look at what has been done in the past, and what to expect in the near future, according to two international investment banks. How big could this... https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3280948/how-chinas-2024-stimulus-compares-past-packages-and-whats-next?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/economy/policy/article/3280948/how-chinas-2024-stimulus-compares-past-packages-and-whats-next?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:00:07 +0000 Singapore new-home sales are likely to fall this year to their lowest level since the global financial crisis, according to property consultancies that cut their forecasts after yet another month of weak transactions. Developers sold fewer than 2,700 units this year through August, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Urban Redevelopment Authority figures. CBRE Group Inc. and Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. now see the total for 2024 dropping below last year’s 6,421, which was the least since... https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3278884/singapore-home-sales-lowest-2008-developers-and-buyers-locked-stand?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3278884/singapore-home-sales-lowest-2008-developers-and-buyers-locked-stand?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 17 Sep 2024 09:35:08 +0000 In recent months, Chinese overcapacity has been a major topic of discussion – and a source of controversy – among economists and policymakers around the world. While these concerns are not entirely off base, they are excessive and resolvable. Over the past four decades, as China has shifted from a planned economy characterised by shortages to a market economy oscillating between insufficient demand and overheating, its government has often sought to eliminate overcapacity whenever it arose. In... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3272529/china-must-not-repeat-its-mistakes-tackling-overcapacity?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3272529/china-must-not-repeat-its-mistakes-tackling-overcapacity?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 31 Jul 2024 12:30:11 +0000 Ratings agencies S&P Global and Moody’s drew fire at a US congressional hearing on Wednesday for failing to reflect the risk of a multi-trillion-dollar “time bomb” that China’s local government financing vehicles pose for global financial markets. Grilling witnesses at a House Oversight committee hearing, California Democrat Katie Porter won praise from witnesses called by the panel’s Republicans, including Washington’s former World Bank representative Erik Bethel, for highlighting a challenge... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3268189/chinas-multi-trillion-dollar-time-bomb-imperils-global-markets-us-house?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3268189/chinas-multi-trillion-dollar-time-bomb-imperils-global-markets-us-house?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 26 Jun 2024 21:50:21 +0000 As emerging and developing economies navigate a turbulent world of intense geopolitical rivalry and worsening climate warming, the question of a new development model is top of the growth agenda. The current narrative is how these economies choose between an insecure rich West and the rising Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) grouping of countries seeking an alternative order. The Global South is not convinced by the Biden administration’s story of democracy vs autocracy, and of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3264766/era-freewheeling-finance-leading-economic-growth-may-soon-be-over?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3264766/era-freewheeling-finance-leading-economic-growth-may-soon-be-over?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 May 2024 12:30:10 +0000 At first glance, China’s first-quarter gross domestic product numbers seem to validate the state’s reliance on production to boost a slowing economy. Compared to the same period last year, GDP in the first quarter grew by 5.3 per cent, driven by a 6.1 per cent increase in industrial production and a 9.9 per cent increase in manufacturing investments. But data from March points to the limits of relying on investment to sustain growth. The National Bureau of Statistics reported on Tuesday that... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3261358/what-china-must-learn-japans-decades-long-debt-deflation-slowdown?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3261358/what-china-must-learn-japans-decades-long-debt-deflation-slowdown?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 05 May 2024 02:30:11 +0000 Here we go again, sliding down the slippery slope that could lead to another international financial crisis. As in 2008 with the global financial crisis, the present threat is in what many would regard as an obscure corner of the financial system. This time, it’s the private credit market and, as was the case with those subprime mortgages that triggered the 2008 crash, few people beyond a narrow circle of financial regulators seem to know what private credit is and why it represents a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3258676/private-credit-warnings-grow-fear-horse-has-bolted?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3258676/private-credit-warnings-grow-fear-horse-has-bolted?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 13 Apr 2024 21:30:20 +0000 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will soon be debating the question of who among its 190 members gets to have how much influence. The outcome will help decide whether Western divisions with China heal or widen. The discussion gets under way at the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank from mid-April. It crystallises the paradox that the world needs global cooperation more than ever, yet global institutions seem more polarised than ever too. It is not just threats of a climate crisis, or... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3257974/why-imf-must-give-china-and-other-emerging-economies-greater-say?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3257974/why-imf-must-give-china-and-other-emerging-economies-greater-say?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 06 Apr 2024 21:30:18 +0000 With pandemics, droughts, floods, wildfires and conflict across the world, we are living in an era of “polycrisis”, which is placing a major toll on global health. Countries are grappling with how to look after ageing populations, combat the rise in non-communicable diseases, address a lack of healthcare access and deal with the rise of misinformation and disinformation in health. This rapid, complex change coincides with increased geopolitical tensions and difficult global governance, meaning... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3257615/overcome-global-health-challenges-collaboration-vital?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3257615/overcome-global-health-challenges-collaboration-vital?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Apr 2024 21:30:12 +0000 There is growing unease in and beyond financial markets over the idea that another systemic crisis could be approaching. For what it’s worth, on the basis of 50 years of market-watching, I believe such an event is inevitable. The trouble is that the nearer a crisis seems to get, the more reluctant regulators of finance – the world’s most ill-disciplined profession – are to talk about it openly, for fear of precipitating such a crisis. We are now in a kind of silence period when events will more... https://www.scmp.com/comment/world-opinion/article/3257088/interest-rate-cuts-or-no-new-financial-crisis-may-be-inevitable?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/world-opinion/article/3257088/interest-rate-cuts-or-no-new-financial-crisis-may-be-inevitable?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 30 Mar 2024 08:30:12 +0000 A spectre is haunting Washington. It is what Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently described as “China-phobia”. Just as some neurotic people see ghosts in broad daylight, so American politicians watch China’s every move with suspicion and apprehension. They view Chinese products such as 5G equipment, port cranes and cars as Trojan horses, and are working hard towards a TikTok ban on national security grounds. Beneath Washington’s fear lies the perception of China as a major adversary,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/china-opinion/article/3256677/imagine-world-free-oppression-us-led-global-order?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/china-opinion/article/3256677/imagine-world-free-oppression-us-led-global-order?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 28 Mar 2024 01:30:12 +0000 Money makes the world go round, sang Sally Bowles in the film Cabaret. Indeed, it keeps the global economy ticking and if central banks were to stop printing it, we would be in a 1930s-style depression. Money is powerful – so why have mainstream development theory and models ignored the role of finance? Until the 2008 global financial crisis, the mainstream economic models used by central banks, governments, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank were built on dynamic stochastic general... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3254300/old-development-models-no-longer-work-we-must-all-find-our-own-path?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3254300/old-development-models-no-longer-work-we-must-all-find-our-own-path?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 08 Mar 2024 12:30:16 +0000 This time last year, the consensus of the world’s leading economists and economic institutions was virtually for a deep recession, continuing into 2024. By March, economist Nouriel Roubini was warning of “the mother of all debt crises”. “We’re moving from the great moderation to the great stagflationary debt crisis and instability,” he said. In April, the International Monetary Fund judged that “risks are firmly on the downside”. What has happened since, that forecasters are now predicting a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3247313/no-recession-2023-its-not-yet-time-breathe-sigh-relief?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3247313/no-recession-2023-its-not-yet-time-breathe-sigh-relief?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 Jan 2024 06:30:21 +0000 I have been in the forecasting business for more than 50 years. Over that period, I have heard the constant refrain that the world is in the midst of “unprecedented changes”. This popular trope frequently resulted in equally hyperbolic corollaries: breathless claims that we have never faced greater risks or such an uncertain future, and that forecasting has never been harder. Repeat it enough and it starts to become believable. Confession: my crystal ball has been cracked so many times by... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245989/policymakers-must-stop-hiding-behind-myth-unprecedented-changes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245989/policymakers-must-stop-hiding-behind-myth-unprecedented-changes?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 23 Dec 2023 08:30:23 +0000 Are we in a state of permacrisis, defined as “an extended period of instability and insecurity, especially resulting from a series of catastrophic events”? Former British prime minister Gordon Brown, fund manager Mohamed El-Erian and Nobel-winning economist Michael Spence think we are, judging by their new book, Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World. These authors are practical and crises-hardened thought leaders who, between them, understand the toxic mix of politics, finance, economics... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3243425/globalisation-lite-plan-heal-fractured-world-permacrises?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3243425/globalisation-lite-plan-heal-fractured-world-permacrises?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 01 Dec 2023 11:30:17 +0000 At the start of this year, the conventional wisdom among analysts studying China was that the economy would come roaring back to life and easily beat the government’s modest growth forecast. The US economy, meanwhile, was tipped to face a recession amid repeated interest-rate increases to bring down inflation that was running at close to 40-year highs. The reality has turned out to be quite the opposite. 2023 will be remembered as the year that the Chinese economy struggled to deal with falling... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3242732/what-hong-kong-must-do-prepare-years-weaker-growth-mainland-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3242732/what-hong-kong-must-do-prepare-years-weaker-growth-mainland-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 25 Nov 2023 02:00:23 +0000 China’s economy is more sustainable precisely because it is deflating its bubbles, while a US economy that continues to rely on an expanding debt bubble can only be headed for a cliff. For the first three quarters of this year, China’s growth of 5.2 per cent came from improving efficiency on the supply side; in the US, growth came on the back of its fiscal deficit increasing sharply as a proportion of its gross domestic product. Yet there is manufactured consensus in the West that China’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3242206/booming-us-economy-and-chinese-crash-think-again?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3242206/booming-us-economy-and-chinese-crash-think-again?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Nov 2023 11:00:08 +0000 With two hot wars currently under way – Russia’s against Ukraine and Israel’s against Hamas in Gaza – on top of the US’ cold wars against Russia and China, attention is distracted from current threats to financial markets. But these could create another war zone before long. Bond and equity markets have been subjected to repeated assaults by central banks in the United States, Europe and Japan for a decade or more and, not surprisingly, they have now gone into spasms that threaten a replay of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3240174/signs-are-pointing-another-black-monday-somebody-tell-fed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3240174/signs-are-pointing-another-black-monday-somebody-tell-fed?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 04 Nov 2023 07:30:14 +0000 Between June 29, 2006 and September 18, 2007, the US Federal Reserve kept the key Fed Funds interest rate at 5.25 per cent. Today, market expectations are for the Fed to keep the rate at its current level of 5.5 per cent – where it has been since July 26 – until the end of the second quarter of 2024. The earlier period of rate stability lasted 15 months and the expectation today is for the rate peak to last around 10 months. This plateau is being referred to in some quarters as a “Table... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3238131/two-lessons-global-economy-feds-2007-missteps?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3238131/two-lessons-global-economy-feds-2007-missteps?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 18 Oct 2023 14:30:08 +0000 China’s outlook is complicated by the rise of financial instruments that help investors manage risks in good times but accelerate downturns in bear markets, as the global financial crisis showed 15 years ago. A recent court decision in Shanghai on a case of asset-backed security fraud warns of potential dangers. Asset-backed securities pool similar financial obligations – such as loans, credit card receivables or aircraft leases – into tradeable bond-like securities. Property, vehicles or other... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237491/next-subprime-crisis-brewing-chinas-property-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237491/next-subprime-crisis-brewing-chinas-property-market?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Oct 2023 07:30:18 +0000