https://www.scmp.com/rss/308242/feed Dr Mark J. Valencia is an internationally known maritime policy analyst, political commentator and consultant focused on Asia. He is the author or editor of some 15 books and more than 100 peer-reviewed journal articles. Currently he a non-resident senior research fellow at the Huayang Institute for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Mass media in the region and beyond have been blaring out news of the latest China-Philippines incident in the South China Sea, in which a Chinese coastguard vessel and a civilian but navy-crewed Philippine supply ship collided. The Philippines is whining and wailing about China’s increased aggressiveness. But this should not be a surprise. The incident, which occurred in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, is not about who is legally right or wrong – each side accuses the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239277/south-china-sea-collision-takes-three-way-game-chicken-closer-brink-philippines-us-and-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239277/south-china-sea-collision-takes-three-way-game-chicken-closer-brink-philippines-us-and-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 28 Oct 2023 02:00:19 +0000 The dust is still settling after a whirlwind of high-level meetings featuring China, the US and Asean that discussed South China Sea issues. Do those discussions and related developments portend a leaking status quo or a backslide into confrontation? While members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations may still have some agency if they can find a clear common voice, the South China Sea issues are mainly driven by the race between China and the United States for hegemony in the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3236126/south-china-sea-us-china-confrontation-looms-large?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3236126/south-china-sea-us-china-confrontation-looms-large?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Sep 2023 09:30:16 +0000 Last week, China, the Philippines and its US ally avoided a showdown at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. How was it avoided and what happens next? On August 5, a Chinese coastguard vessel used a water cannon in an attempt to prevent boats being escorted by the Philippine coastguard from delivering supplies to troops on the BRP Sierra Madre that had been deliberately grounded on Second Thomas Shoal in the 1990s. This was followed by widespread reporting and condemnation of China’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232928/south-china-sea-showdown-second-thomas-shoal-may-be-hard-avoid?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3232928/south-china-sea-showdown-second-thomas-shoal-may-be-hard-avoid?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 31 Aug 2023 22:15:10 +0000 The stars seem to be aligning for a showdown at a China-Philippines disputed submerged reef in the South China Sea. On August 5, a Chinese coastguard vessel used a water cannon to prevent a Philippine government-chartered boat escorted by coastguard vessels from delivering supplies to troops on Second Thomas Shoal. Relations were already rattled after a Chinese coastguard vessel pointed a military-grade laser at a Philippine coastguard vessel on a similar resupply mission in February. Although... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231534/how-submerged-spratlys-reef-emerging-south-china-sea-flashpoint-china-philippines-and-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231534/how-submerged-spratlys-reef-emerging-south-china-sea-flashpoint-china-philippines-and-us?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 20 Aug 2023 17:00:09 +0000 The main purpose of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit to China was, in his words, to help reduce “misunderstandings and miscommunications” so as to prevent incidents between the two sides. He was unsuccessful in restarting military-to-military talks, though, and it seems that just agreeing to talk has become politicised while the communications process is being used to the advantage of one side or the other. The level of US-China military communications is at a nadir, and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229429/little-hope-progress-us-china-military-talks-when-two-sides-remain-so-far-apart?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229429/little-hope-progress-us-china-military-talks-when-two-sides-remain-so-far-apart?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 01 Aug 2023 00:15:09 +0000 A major purpose of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China was, in his words, to re-establish communications to reduce “misunderstandings and miscommunications”, to prevent or manage incidents between the two militaries. The near collision of Chinese and US warships in the Taiwan Strait earlier this month is a prime example. However, Blinken did not manage to re-establish the most crucial link – military-to-military communications. Moreover, even if better military-to-military... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224837/us-only-has-itself-blame-dangerous-incidents-taiwan-strait-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224837/us-only-has-itself-blame-dangerous-incidents-taiwan-strait-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 24 Jun 2023 17:00:13 +0000 After the rancorous China-US stand-off at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore, the Quad looms ever larger in importance. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is a loose but rapidly evolving security arrangement of Australia, India, Japan and the United States. As it looks to expand via “Quad Plus” initiatives, this is a good time to analyse its intent and direction. The Quad leaders’ statement from their fifth meeting last month provides a starting point. In their words, the Quad intends to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3223608/understand-quads-real-ambitions-ignore-its-empty-rhetoric-and-look-its-actions-indo-pacific?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3223608/understand-quads-real-ambitions-ignore-its-empty-rhetoric-and-look-its-actions-indo-pacific?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 14 Jun 2023 00:15:09 +0000 On August 4, 1964, the US claimed that North Vietnamese patrol boats had attacked the US naval destroyer Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin. This led to the passage by the US Congress of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution less than a week later that became then-president Lyndon Johnson’s legal justification for sending US forces to South Vietnam. That led to the open involvement of the United States in Vietnam’s civil war. We now know that the attack never happened and the fateful decisions were based on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222190/us-and-philippines-are-playing-dangerous-game-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222190/us-and-philippines-are-playing-dangerous-game-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 30 May 2023 17:30:16 +0000 China and the United States are ratcheting up their pressure on Southeast Asian countries to choose between them in their struggle for regional hegemony. Some have already done so while others continue to hedge – some successfully, some not so much. In international relations, hedging is defined as insurance-seeking behaviour in which a state tries not to take sides, pursues opposite, mutually counteracting measures, and cultivates a fallback position. However, states hedge in different forms... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3220906/why-nations-seeking-hedge-between-us-and-china-should-look-vietnam-not-philippines?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3220906/why-nations-seeking-hedge-between-us-and-china-should-look-vietnam-not-philippines?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 20 May 2023 00:15:15 +0000 China’s position, policy and practices in the South China Sea have become counterproductive to its attempts to enhance its soft power and relations with Southeast Asia. Still, it continues them and has even doubled down on its historical claim to much of the sea – a claim rejected by a Permanent Court of Arbitration panel in 2016 – by enforcing it with its maritime militia, coastguard and even, occasionally, its navy. China’s rival claimants – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam –... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219134/south-china-sea-risks-rise-rival-claimants-have-way-out-compromise?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219134/south-china-sea-risks-rise-rival-claimants-have-way-out-compromise?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 06 May 2023 01:15:17 +0000 In last week’s joint statement, the Philippines and United States hit out at China for “its unlawful maritime claims, militarisation of reclaimed features, and threatening and provocative activities in the South China Sea”, including the “repeated massing” of its maritime militia vessels in the Philippine exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Such alleged depredations have been amply repeated in the media without qualification. Although viewed as wholly provocative by rival claimants, some of China’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217465/are-chinas-provocative-actions-south-china-sea-lawful-its-complicated?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217465/are-chinas-provocative-actions-south-china-sea-lawful-its-complicated?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 19 Apr 2023 19:30:08 +0000 China and Asean have been trying to agree on a robust code of conduct in the South China Sea since 2002, when they concluded a non-binding and ambiguous declaration. A draft negotiating text produced in 2018 was a smorgasbord of contradictory positions, and as the frequency and severity of incidents in disputed waters increase, so have calls for a rapid agreement on a code of conduct. Clearly, realistic compromises are necessary. The main issues are the definition of the code’s geographic scope... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216418/south-china-sea-asean-needs-compromise-china-settle-protracted-code-conduct-dispute?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216418/south-china-sea-asean-needs-compromise-china-settle-protracted-code-conduct-dispute?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 11 Apr 2023 00:15:08 +0000 Philippine anti-China hawks, Americanophiles and US military strategists have won the struggle for the fundamental direction of Manila’s foreign policy. Indeed, despite denials, the Philippines has clearly chosen to side with the United States in its contest with China for hegemony in the region. The Marcos Jnr administration claims that doing so is in the national interest. But what might be the negative consequences for the Philippines, the region and the US? Philippine President Ferdinand... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3215238/philippines-has-picked-side-us-china-conflict-now-it-must-bear-consequences?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3215238/philippines-has-picked-side-us-china-conflict-now-it-must-bear-consequences?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Mar 2023 17:00:14 +0000 A recent Chinese government decision to raise the status of international law studies has potentially significant implications for China and its foreign relations. Its acceptance of the need to upgrade its capacity in international law is not likely to be driven by a new-found desire to abide by it. Rather, it is likely to stem from more practical political motives, such as defending against its use by Western powers, particularly when it comes to the law of the sea, and an intention to emulate... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213770/after-south-china-sea-setback-beijing-seeks-arm-itself-international-law-west?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3213770/after-south-china-sea-setback-beijing-seeks-arm-itself-international-law-west?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Mar 2023 17:30:11 +0000 The close encounter last week between a Chinese jet fighter and a US reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea has become part of the new normal there. Despite the media hype, the danger of such incidents has subsided somewhat since the fatal 2001 collision. In that incident, the Chinese jet fighter crashed, killing its pilot, while the US intelligence collection plane made an emergency landing in Hainan. The 24 US crew members were held for 11 days until the United States issued an... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211972/south-china-sea-trigger-points-grow-even-beyond-us-control-what-will-china-do?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211972/south-china-sea-trigger-points-grow-even-beyond-us-control-what-will-china-do?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Mar 2023 00:15:08 +0000 China is facing a point of decision in the South China Sea. Supported by the US, rival claimants Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam are resisting China’s attempts to implement its historic claim over much of the South China Sea. They are responding to China’s intimidation and harassment by building up their military presence and capability, and some have enhanced cooperation with the United States. The most significant recent example is the Philippine agreement to allow the US more... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210849/south-china-sea-china-faces-hard-choices-us-support-rivals-grows?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210849/south-china-sea-china-faces-hard-choices-us-support-rivals-grows?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 Feb 2023 19:30:12 +0000 With the advantages of geographic permanency and burgeoning economic and political clout, China has a soft power edge in Asia. Its rival – the US – is hobbled by the tyranny of distance, its preoccupation elsewhere, its blatant self-interest and its overly militarist approach to international relations. But China has played its diplomatic hand poorly. It got arrogant and impatient, and overreached, playing right into the US campaign to isolate and demonise it. Now it is reaping the whirlwind of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3208604/rising-us-bait-china-has-lost-its-soft-power-advantage-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3208604/rising-us-bait-china-has-lost-its-soft-power-advantage-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 Feb 2023 17:00:07 +0000 The political-military situation in the South China Sea is a dangerous one that fosters incidents when and where the security interests and actions of the main protagonists clash. The recent “near miss” between a Chinese fighter jet and a US military plane was no one-off. The outlook for 2023 is for more of the same, although incidents could vary in severity and escalation with the tenor of the relations between parties. China is rapidly enhancing its ability to project power in the South China... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3207306/south-china-sea-expect-more-close-calls-high-tension-2023-amid-military-build?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3207306/south-china-sea-expect-more-close-calls-high-tension-2023-amid-military-build?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 21 Jan 2023 00:15:09 +0000 Presenting sensationalism as fact is a part of “yellow journalism” which, in its late 19th century heyday, helped push the United States into war with Spain over Cuba and the Philippines, leading to US colonial control over the latter. Sensationalism seems to be enjoying a revival regarding China and the South China Sea. Two recent incidents bear this out. On December 20, Bloomberg, citing unnamed Western officials, reported that China had begun reclamation work on some unoccupied reefs in the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205709/thumping-reclamation-south-china-sea-us-accusations-put-china-defensive-plan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205709/thumping-reclamation-south-china-sea-us-accusations-put-china-defensive-plan?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Jan 2023 17:00:10 +0000 “An armed attack on the Philippines armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defence commitments.” With such supportive statements, US Vice-President Kamala Harris reinforced the notion that, under their mutual defence treaty, the United States would provide military support to the Philippines in the event of aggression by China in the South China Sea, but such military backup is neither automatic nor guaranteed. Article I of the treaty says that... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3203284/us-military-support-philippines-south-china-sea-no-sure-thing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3203284/us-military-support-philippines-south-china-sea-no-sure-thing?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 15 Dec 2022 17:00:16 +0000 A moment of truth could be approaching for the China-Philippines dispute in the South China Sea. The administration of Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr is reportedly considering allowing Forum Energy to proceed with petroleum exploration on the Reed Bank. The company has asked the government for protection against harassment by China. If provided, it could lead to a military confrontation and that could draw in the Philippines’ military ally, the United States. A way to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3201661/how-china-philippines-can-settle-their-south-china-sea-resource-dispute-and-avoid-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3201661/how-china-philippines-can-settle-their-south-china-sea-resource-dispute-and-avoid-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 05 Dec 2022 01:15:10 +0000 Actions speak louder than words. That is the conclusion Beijing is likely to draw from US Vice-President Kamala Harris’ visit to the Philippines to reinforce the alliance against China. Beijing and Washington are questioning each other’s intent and are thus scrutinising the other side’s actions. Harris’ trip comes on the heels of the in-person summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden, who tried to reassure each other of their benign intentions when they met before... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3200582/us-china-and-asean-there-has-been-more-talk-progress?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3200582/us-china-and-asean-there-has-been-more-talk-progress?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 23 Nov 2022 19:30:13 +0000 A senior US State Department official recently warned that the United States will oppose any effort to exclude it from the South China Sea through provisions in a code of conduct being negotiated. This is just the tip of the iceberg of the US-China struggle over the code and, more fundamentally, regional dominance. Asean and China have been negotiating a code of conduct since the idea was first endorsed in 1996 by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It seems to have become a holy grail –... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3198491/south-china-sea-between-us-china-tensions-and-asean-disputes-code-conduct-remains-out-reach?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3198491/south-china-sea-between-us-china-tensions-and-asean-disputes-code-conduct-remains-out-reach?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 08 Nov 2022 01:15:09 +0000 On October 14, when the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier strike group docked in Manila after a three-year absence, the United States announced a grant of US$100 million in foreign military financing to the Philippines. This synchrony was not a coincidence. The US and the Philippines differ on how to interpret and implement their alliance in the face of the “China threat”, and these are the latest moves by the US to gain acceptance from the Philippines for placing its troops and assets there.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3197412/us-philippines-alliance-under-pressure-closer-ties-risks-chinese-backlash?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3197412/us-philippines-alliance-under-pressure-closer-ties-risks-chinese-backlash?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 29 Oct 2022 01:15:09 +0000 The China-bashing broadside by US Vice-President Kamala Harris last month in Japan raises questions of who is in charge of America’s China and Asia policy, and what it is. Hopes ran high when President Joe Biden appointed Kurt Campbell as his “Asia tsar” on the first day of administration. But like those before him, Campbell’s turn at the helm of America’s Asia policy is not turning out as hoped. Indeed, from China to North Korea to Southeast Asia, US policy seems to be in disarray. There were... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195613/has-us-policy-asia-and-china-been-taken-over-hardliners?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195613/has-us-policy-asia-and-china-been-taken-over-hardliners?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 Oct 2022 15:30:15 +0000 This week, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet Philippine Defence Secretary Jose Faustino Jnr in Hawaii. Although ostensibly routine, this is another move in the dangerous game Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr is playing. Indeed, as he tries to balance ties with China and the US, he may not be able to have his cake and eat it too. Marcos wants both the security protection of the US and the maintenance of vital economic relations with China, the Philippines’ top trading partner... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193938/courting-both-us-and-china-philippines-trying-have-its-cake-and-eat?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193938/courting-both-us-and-china-philippines-trying-have-its-cake-and-eat?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 28 Sep 2022 01:17:43 +0000 On September 6, the US deputy chief of mission to Japan accused China of threatening “the safety of our waterways”, adding that, “no nation should be able to dominate Indo-Pacific waters through coercion and outright intimidation”. He apparently did not realise the hubris of the use of “our waterways” or the irony that these accusations could equally apply to the US. This speech was part of a US attempt to win the hearts and minds of Southeast Asians and demonise China. It implicitly stresses... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3192566/us-must-come-clean-its-desire-contain-china-indo-pacific?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3192566/us-must-come-clean-its-desire-contain-china-indo-pacific?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 15 Sep 2022 17:30:20 +0000 The US Navy has accused Iran of trying to capture one of its unmanned surface vessels (USV) in the Persian Gulf. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Naval Forces Central Command, called Iran’s actions “flagrant, unwarranted and inconsistent with the behaviour of a professional maritime force”. The navy says its Saildrone Explorer was unlawfully taken from international waters in the Persian Gulf. After being told that the drone was US government property and that it wanted it back, the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3191120/us-iran-sea-drone-dispute-highlights-vast-scope-conflict-over?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3191120/us-iran-sea-drone-dispute-highlights-vast-scope-conflict-over?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 02 Sep 2022 17:30:08 +0000 There is an ongoing discussion in Washington circles as to what the US should do about China’s creeping military control of the South China Sea. Various suggested solutions present their own problems. Moreover, conflation of the US’ security interests with those of China’s rival claimants is a double-edged sword. The US faces a dilemma. To maintain its hegemony and get China to back off from its bullying of rival claimants, it needs a sustained deterrent in the region. China has militarised the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3190007/south-china-sea-us-military-projection-never-answer?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3190007/south-china-sea-us-military-projection-never-answer?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Aug 2022 01:15:14 +0000 High-ranking US officials claim China’s “provocations” in the South China Sea are increasing and have warned that it is only a matter of time before such “aggressive and irresponsible behaviour” results in a major incident. The frequency and intensity of dangerous incidents between the US and China militaries in the area are indeed increasing. And the possibility of an escalation is certainly higher following the visit to Taiwan by second in line to the US presidency Nancy Pelosi. But the US... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3187663/us-warns-south-china-sea-provocations-who-provoking-whom?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3187663/us-warns-south-china-sea-provocations-who-provoking-whom?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Aug 2022 22:45:19 +0000 The recent confrontation involving an Australian surveillance plane and Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea is just a glimpse of what could come from Canberra serving as a US “point man” in the region. Indeed, as the US-China struggle for domination in the South China Sea becomes ever more dangerous, Australia finds itself at the edge of an intensifying political and military whirlpool. Australia needs to re-evaluate its interests and policies lest it be unwittingly sucked in. On June... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3186035/australia-risking-its-own-neck-us-south-china-sea-has-it-stopped?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3186035/australia-risking-its-own-neck-us-south-china-sea-has-it-stopped?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Jul 2022 00:45:24 +0000 “You can trust the Americans to do the right thing – after they have tried all the wrong things” – attributed to Winston Churchill. One could substitute “the Americans” with “the Australians” in Churchill’s aphorism. Australia has long followed America’s lead in its policy towards Southeast Asia and Asean. That policy has basically been to use them in its contest with China for regional domination. Both Canberra and Washington have consistently voiced their support for Asean centrality, while... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3184950/does-australias-support-asean-centrality-mean-it-finally?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3184950/does-australias-support-asean-centrality-mean-it-finally?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 13 Jul 2022 00:45:15 +0000 The media has played up China’s sovereignty claim over the Taiwan Strait, with some painting it as an ominous warning to the US and a gross violation of the international order. But this misinterprets what Beijing said and meant. The United States insists the Taiwan Strait is an “international waterway” through which it has navigation rights. Both are partially right – and partially wrong. Specifically, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the strait fell within China’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181991/rights-and-wrongs-us-china-dispute-over-taiwan-strait?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181991/rights-and-wrongs-us-china-dispute-over-taiwan-strait?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 20 Jun 2022 00:45:11 +0000 At a meeting in Tokyo last month, leaders of the US, India, Australia and Japan – the Quad – launched their Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness. While hailed by its backers as a step forward in practical Quad cooperation, it raises many questions. Judgement about its effectiveness should be withheld until they are answered. First, it is not clear what exactly the initiative entails. A White House fact sheet explained that it “will offer a near-real-time, integrated, and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3180670/quads-indo-pacific-maritime-initiative-raises-more-questions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3180670/quads-indo-pacific-maritime-initiative-raises-more-questions?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 07 Jun 2022 17:30:17 +0000 A prominent US think tank, the National Bureau of Asian Research, has just released a report on China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea that has received considerable publicity. It purports to “identify historical trends of assertive behaviour between China, the Philippines, and Vietnam and assess the implications for the disputes in the South China Sea”. A major conclusion is that “China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea has less to do with US global power and international policy... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3179392/what-driving-chinas-assertiveness-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3179392/what-driving-chinas-assertiveness-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 29 May 2022 17:30:22 +0000 “The future of each of our nations – and indeed the world – depends on a free and open Indo-Pacific enduring and flourishing in the decades ahead,” US President Joe Biden said last September. The Indo-Pacific region extends from the Indian Ocean to the US Pacific coast, and from Japan to Australia and New Zealand. At its geopolitical core lies the South China Sea. Here, the strategic and foreign policy interests of China and America collide, as do their definitions of the “international order”.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176640/three-scenarios-south-china-sea-good-bad-and-ugly?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176640/three-scenarios-south-china-sea-good-bad-and-ugly?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 09 May 2022 01:15:22 +0000 The US Indo-Pacific Strategy aims to disrupt China’s hegemony in the region through greater coordination with allies and partners “across warfighting domains”. The success of the strategy depends on this network and a willingness to go along with it. But the US has struggled to elicit cooperation from Asian countries, and the war in Ukraine has now further undermined its diplomatic efforts. From the outset, Washington’s emphasis on a militaristic approach has had little appeal. Indeed, the US... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3175734/ukraine-war-has-undermined-us-aims-indo-pacific-small-countries?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3175734/ukraine-war-has-undermined-us-aims-indo-pacific-small-countries?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 28 Apr 2022 22:45:19 +0000 On May 9, Philippine voters will elect a new president to succeed Rodrigo Duterte. Philippine policy in the South China Sea, as well as towards China and the US, have become major campaign issues. In recent presidential debates, candidates were given the opportunity to explain their position on these issues. Their responses were a mix of nationalist naivete, dangerous nonsense and neocolonialism. Former defence secretary Norberto Gonzales suggested the Association of Southeast Asian Nations... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3174570/south-china-sea-philippine-presidential-hopefuls-tend-be-naively?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3174570/south-china-sea-philippine-presidential-hopefuls-tend-be-naively?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 19 Apr 2022 17:00:25 +0000 The tragedy of the war in Ukraine has elicited a plethora of opinion pieces trying to divine lessons learned for the Indo-Pacific. Some of them make sense, but others reflect fuzzy or wishful thinking. Those lessons that do make sense are rather general and obvious. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows that Europe and the world cannot afford to “lose sight of geopolitical realities and of the possibility that regional conflicts may escalate”. It also is a reminder that “global peace and stability... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3172360/how-ukraine-invasion-lessons-are-wrongly-used-hype-china-threat?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3172360/how-ukraine-invasion-lessons-are-wrongly-used-hype-china-threat?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 30 Mar 2022 17:00:23 +0000 The special US-Asean summit scheduled for March 28-29 in Washington has been abruptly postponed. According to Cambodia, the chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, “some Asean leaders can’t join the meeting as scheduled”. This is not a good sign for US-Asean relations or the goals the US hopes to achieve. Most realise that Washington’s main reason for holding the summit is to enlist Southeast Asian support for its anti-China agenda. But this is not a one-way street and Asean has... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3170856/us-regain-respect-southeast-asia-it-must-learn-listen-asean?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3170856/us-regain-respect-southeast-asia-it-must-learn-listen-asean?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 21 Mar 2022 00:45:21 +0000 The United States has finally released its long-awaited Indo-Pacific Strategy document. Southeast Asia and its regional organisation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, figure prominently. But its agenda for these countries and Asean is based on false assumptions and ignores fundamental differences. The strategy prioritises Asean’s aspiration of centrality in regional security. It says, “We endorse Asean centrality and support Asean in its efforts to deliver sustainable solutions to the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3167301/why-us-anti-china-indo-pacific-strategy-dangerous-deluded-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3167301/why-us-anti-china-indo-pacific-strategy-dangerous-deluded-and?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Feb 2022 19:30:16 +0000 At their January summit, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reiterated their resolve to thwart China’s “attempts to change the status quo in the East China Sea”. Coming from the United States, this statement is disingenuous: changing the status quo is precisely what the US is doing in the South China Sea. This also begs the questions: what is, or was, the status quo, who gets to define it, and who has tried to change it? Japan presently administers the rocks it... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3166370/why-us-criticism-chinas-actions-east-china-sea-smacks-hypocrisy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3166370/why-us-criticism-chinas-actions-east-china-sea-smacks-hypocrisy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 10 Feb 2022 01:15:11 +0000 The South China Sea has been relatively quiet over the past few months. But that does not mean nothing is happening behind the scenes. Indeed, the principal protagonists – China and the US, and the Southeast Asian countries caught in between – are trying to figure out their next moves. Once their strategies gel, expect clashes in real time. China will not stop trying to achieve its irredentist goal of wresting dominance in the South China Sea from the US. But in the face of stepped-up US... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3164192/south-china-sea-time-adjustments-us-china-and-asean-fine-tune-their?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3164192/south-china-sea-time-adjustments-us-china-and-asean-fine-tune-their?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 22 Jan 2022 00:45:12 +0000 Typhoons in the South China Sea were rather severe last year, but they might not be the only type of storm there. Indeed, the US-China contest for dominance could produce a military maelstrom. Globally, US military power is clearly superior to that of China. The gap between them is less pronounced in China’s near waters like the South China Sea, yet the United States continues to push its luck there. The US might be miscalculating China’s military capability in the area and its political will to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3161980/us-and-china-are-flirting-disaster-chance-south-china-sea-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3161980/us-and-china-are-flirting-disaster-chance-south-china-sea-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Jan 2022 00:45:23 +0000 China has been making progress in its soft power contest with the US for dominance in Southeast Asia. Its relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has now been elevated to a “comprehensive strategic partnership”, entailing more closely aligned laws and security. But with its recent aggressive and – in rival claimants’ eyes – illegal actions in the South China Sea, China is in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Beijing has tended to be ambiguous about what... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3159020/beijings-hard-approach-south-china-sea-could-cost-it-soft-power?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3159020/beijings-hard-approach-south-china-sea-could-cost-it-soft-power?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 10 Dec 2021 17:00:10 +0000 In the wake of the virtual summit between China’s President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden, the US is proposing to set up “guardrails” to avoid a clash. What might they be and how likely is it to set them up? According to US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, the US wants to “ensure that there are guardrails around the US-China competition”. However, he went on to say that the US and its partners want to “write the rules of the road for the 21st century in a way that advances our... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3157738/south-china-sea-should-top-list-us-china-guardrails?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3157738/south-china-sea-should-top-list-us-china-guardrails?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 30 Nov 2021 00:45:10 +0000 Changes in the international order often come about through war and its aftermath. But China is trying to change the status quo by peacefully stretching the envelope of the existing system. Indeed, China wants to use agreement with Asean on a code of conduct for the South China Sea to build towards a new international order more consonant with its interests and goals. This may be possible if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China are willing to compromise and use ambiguous language... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3156725/south-china-sea-can-china-asean-code-conduct-talks-secure-new?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3156725/south-china-sea-can-china-asean-code-conduct-talks-secure-new?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 21 Nov 2021 22:45:16 +0000 One of Asean’s core aspirations is centrality in security affairs in the region. There is a range of interpretations of what that means. A limited view is that it means the organisation is situated in and must remain at the core of Southeast Asian forums such as the Asean Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit. But some in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations itself suggest it means it wants to play a central role in managing security issues in its region. Australia, China, Japan and the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3154348/south-china-sea-asean-must-stand-us-and-china-preserve-its?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3154348/south-china-sea-asean-must-stand-us-and-china-preserve-its?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 02 Nov 2021 01:15:14 +0000 “US demands details of Chinese nuclear sub accident off California” screamed the headline. No, that has not happened – not yet. But just imagine the US reaction if it did. The public would immediately want to know if there was any radiation leakage from the reactor or its nuclear weapons, if it was carrying them. What caused the accident? Where did it happen? What was it doing there in the first place? On October 7, the US Navy announced that its fast attack nuclear submarine USS Connecticut had... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3152154/irresponsible-us-submarine-exercises-threaten-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3152154/irresponsible-us-submarine-exercises-threaten-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 14 Oct 2021 01:15:21 +0000 Mark J. Valencia Mark J. Valencia US-driven anti-China security partnerships such as the Quad and now Aukus have raised the likelihood of a US-China clash in the South China Sea. China’s reaction is likely to make the situation more dangerous. In the event of conflict, Asean members will be losers, directly and indirectly. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and related summits will be held on October 26 to 28 in Brunei, followed by the East Asia Summit in November. It is not hyperbole to ask if this upcoming round of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3151360/caught-between-china-and-us-asean-must-be-louder-and-brasher-about?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3151360/caught-between-china-and-us-asean-must-be-louder-and-brasher-about?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 07 Oct 2021 01:15:20 +0000