https://www.scmp.com/rss/308244/feed Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Every quarter, Knight Frank publishes a report on luxury residential transactions – sales of homes worth US$10 million or more – in 12 leading markets around the world. In the final quarter of last year, Hong Kong was the second most actively traded market after Dubai, recording 81 deals with a total value of US$1.5 billion. For 2025 as a whole, Hong Kong was the fourth most widely traded market, ahead of London, which topped the ranking in 2022. Hong Kong’s strong performance is mostly... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351520/asian-private-wealth-emerging-force-property-investment?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351520/asian-private-wealth-emerging-force-property-investment?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 27 Apr 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In March 2024, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007, lifting borrowing costs out of negative territory and calling time on decades of ultra-loose monetary policy as Japan emerged from a long period of entrenched deflation. At the time, inflation had been above the central bank’s 2 per cent target for 22 months. Fast forward to today, and inflationary pressures continue to build. Although headline inflation fell to 1.3 per cent in February, this was because of the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351088/why-japans-central-bank-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351088/why-japans-central-bank-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 23 Apr 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Hong Kong’s real estate market has come a long way in the past year. For a sign of the extent to which its outlook has improved, look no further than the rapid shift in expectations for the growth in house prices this year. As recently as January, Morgan Stanley characterised its prediction of a 10 per cent rise in secondary home values as a non-consensus call. Fast forward to today, and its forecast is in line with those of most other industry experts. The outlook for the city’s office market... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3350677/why-hong-kong-property-recovery-sceptics-miss-bigger-picture?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3350677/why-hong-kong-property-recovery-sceptics-miss-bigger-picture?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 20 Apr 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro At first glance, the rupee is staging a recovery. India’s battered currency has gained around 1.5 per cent since March 27, making it the best-performing currency in Asia, according to Bloomberg data. However, the recent bounce belies vulnerabilities in India’s economy that have been exacerbated by the energy shock emanating from the war in Iran. India is one of the most exposed among Asia’s leading economies, importing 90 per cent of its oil and more than half its liquefied petroleum gas.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3350249/bullish-narrative-around-indias-economy-odds-struggling-rupee?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3350249/bullish-narrative-around-indias-economy-odds-struggling-rupee?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 Apr 2026 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Singapore is at the sharp end of the energy crisis. Imported natural gas accounts for an estimated 95 per cent of the city state’s electricity generation. According to Nomura, Singapore is the fourth most vulnerable Asian economy to the energy shock emanating from the war in Iran, based on a set of criteria that includes the share of fossil fuels in energy consumption and the proportion of energy imports from the Gulf. Last month, Singapore’s Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3349845/why-singapores-property-slowdown-envy-rest-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3349845/why-singapores-property-slowdown-envy-rest-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 13 Apr 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Are Chinese government bonds a refuge from global economic turmoil? That the financial markets of a country which has struggled to fully shed the “uninvestable” label are being touted by a growing number of investors and analysts as a safe harbour attests to the dramatic shift in perceptions of China since the beginning of last year. Although the “uninvestable” tag applied to Chinese equities, which suffered a prolonged spell of extreme bearishness from 2021 to 2023, the government bond market... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3349453/why-investors-should-beware-china-safe-haven-narrative-amid-iran-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3349453/why-investors-should-beware-china-safe-haven-narrative-amid-iran-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan does not mince his words. In an interview with Reuters on March 23, he said Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz was, “in a sense, an Asian crisis”. Many industry experts agree with him. Before the war in Iran erupted, China, India, Japan and South Korea accounted for 75 per cent of oil and 59 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows through the strait. In a report on March 6, Nomura said Asia was the “epicentre of the energy... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3349119/why-asias-data-centres-are-insulated-iran-energy-shock?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3349119/why-asias-data-centres-are-insulated-iran-energy-shock?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 06 Apr 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Last month, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, experienced its largest monthly rise since the launch of the futures contract in 1988 as the war in Iran caused an unprecedented disruption to global energy flows. Brent surged 63 per cent to US$118 per barrel, exceeding the previous record increase in September 1990 following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. The price shock has been even more dramatic in refined products. Jet fuel costs have more than doubled since the war began, with diesel... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3348744/asian-central-banks-largely-powerless-face-iran-war-energy-shock?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3348744/asian-central-banks-largely-powerless-face-iran-war-energy-shock?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Spare a thought for investors seeking shelter from the energy shock caused by the war in Iran. There are no sanctuaries. Government bonds, a traditional beneficiary of a flight to safety, have fallen in response to fears central banks will be forced to raise interest rates to combat a surge in inflation. Even gold, long viewed as a refuge in times of geopolitical uncertainty, has fallen about 15 per cent this month following a blistering rally. The safe haven credentials of Dubai have taken a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3348353/japans-property-market-well-placed-withstand-iran-war-energy-shock?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3348353/japans-property-market-well-placed-withstand-iran-war-energy-shock?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 30 Mar 2026 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For the second year in a row, Asia’s vulnerability to global shocks is a source of concern. Almost exactly a year since US President Donald Trump launched his assault on the global trading system, the external dependencies of leading Asian economies have once again dimmed the outlook for the region. Early last year, analysts were worried about Asia’s heavy reliance on exports to the United States. Morgan Stanley pointed out that seven of the 10 countries running the largest trade surpluses with... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3347935/iran-war-why-trump-climbdown-wont-save-asias-economies?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3347935/iran-war-why-trump-climbdown-wont-save-asias-economies?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Last week, the energy shock caused by the war in Iran showed signs of becoming a full-blown financial and economic crisis. The attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East, coupled with soaring prices of crucial refined petroleum products such as diesel and jet fuel, forced investors to start pricing in a prolonged disruption to supply and a contraction in demand. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens sooner than anticipated, the scale of the damage to energy assets in the Persian Gulf... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3347540/war-induced-interest-rate-shocks-unlikely-upset-asias-property-markets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3347540/war-induced-interest-rate-shocks-unlikely-upset-asias-property-markets?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 23 Mar 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro As the war in Iran rages and the consequences of the shock to commodity markets become clearer, the vulnerability of Asia’s economies tops the list of concerns in the research reports of investment banks. The region’s reliance on energy imports from the Gulf has come under scrutiny. The facts speak for themselves. Three-quarters of the oil supplies that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before Iran effectively closed the waterway were destined for China, India, Japan and South Korea. While... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3347108/china-weathering-iran-war-oil-shock-better-others-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3347108/china-weathering-iran-war-oil-shock-better-others-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 19 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro As the war in the Middle East enters its third week, hopes for a swift end to the conflict have evaporated. Assessments of the economic consequences are much more dire than they were even a week ago. In a report on March 12, the International Energy Agency said the war “is creating the largest energy supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”. Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical maritime chokepoint that handles around one quarter of global seaborne oil... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3346705/why-asias-crisis-hardened-hotel-sector-can-withstand-iran-war-shock?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3346705/why-asias-crisis-hardened-hotel-sector-can-withstand-iran-war-shock?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 16 Mar 2026 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For a moment on March 9, it seemed like global investors were starting to get to grips with the scale and severity of the economic fallout from the rapidly escalating war in Iran. At one point, Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged to nearly US$120 a barrel, double the level it was trading at in early January. Yet no sooner did US President Donald Trump try to allay fears in markets by announcing that the war would be over “very soon” than prices fell back to below US$90. Since then, they... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346299/iran-war-disruption-just-one-many-threats-global-markets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346299/iran-war-disruption-just-one-many-threats-global-markets?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Even before US President Donald Trump launched his tariff blitz in April last year, Morgan Stanley warned that Asia’s trade-dependent economies were particularly vulnerable to an onslaught of protectionism. The region accounted for seven of the 10 economies with the largest trade surpluses with the United States, while Taiwan, South Korea and Japan derived between 15 and 30 per cent of their corporate revenues from the US. However, those vulnerabilities were less consequential than anticipated.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3345928/4-reasons-asias-property-will-endure-despite-iran-war-headwinds?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3345928/4-reasons-asias-property-will-endure-despite-iran-war-headwinds?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 09 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For sheer escalatory potential, look no further than the speed at which the six-day-old war in Iran has drawn in countries across the Middle East, causing the biggest energy shock since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While the long-term consequences of military action by the United States and Israel against Iran are unpredictable, worst-case scenarios for the global economy and markets have begun to unfold. Although the least important thing about any war is how it affects... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345515/iran-war-shows-markets-cant-ignore-every-geopolitical-shock?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345515/iran-war-shows-markets-cant-ignore-every-geopolitical-shock?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro A decade ago, some investors believed the United States’ retail industry was going the way of the subprime mortgage market, whose collapse triggered the 2008 global financial crisis. The combination of the overbuilding of shopping centres and the dramatic rise of online shopping plunged bricks-and-mortar stores into crisis. Fears of a “retail apocalypse” were rife. The double whammy of overcapacity and the “Amazon effect” also hit the United Kingdom’s retail sector hard, with prominent stores... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3345094/unique-resilience-australias-retail-property-deserves-attention?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3345094/unique-resilience-australias-retail-property-deserves-attention?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 Mar 2026 06:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro It is one of the oldest sayings on Wall Street, yet the adage “markets hate uncertainty” has never stood up to scrutiny. Like most maxims, it has a ring of truth but is a gross oversimplification. What is indisputable, however, is that for several decades investors took major economic, financial and political trends for granted. For a long period beginning in the 1980s, the world was relatively predictable. Many economists dubbed this era “the great moderation”. Others pointed to the impact of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344685/trumps-normalisation-market-chaos-can-only-go-so-far?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344685/trumps-normalisation-market-chaos-can-only-go-so-far?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 Feb 2026 10:45:14 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Concerns about the impact of generative artificial intelligence (AI) abound. At the end of last year, uncertainty over the monetisation of AI was the dominant theme in stock markets. Many investors are worried about the mismatch between the vast sums of money being spent on computing power and the relatively meagre revenues from AI companies and services. While monetisation remains a major concern among investors, fears about AI tools undermining the viability of established business models have... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3344296/why-ai-disruption-isnt-major-threat-indias-booming-office-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3344296/why-ai-disruption-isnt-major-threat-indias-booming-office-market?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 23 Feb 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro The US dollar’s decline is not over yet. Having fallen 10 per cent last year, the dollar index – a gauge of the US dollar’s performance against a basket of other major currencies – is down a further 0.6 per cent this year in the face of relatively high US interest rates, a resilient economy and the dominance of American technology companies. The findings of a Bank of America survey on February 13 showed that fund managers’ exposure to the US dollar had dropped below last April’s low, when US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3343966/us-dollar-weakness-no-game-changer-globalised-yuan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3343966/us-dollar-weakness-no-game-changer-globalised-yuan?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 19 Feb 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For many decades, Australia was known as the “lucky country”. Its long period of uninterrupted growth stretching back to the 1990s was a rarity among advanced economies. Yet even before the Covid-19 pandemic erupted, Australia’s luck was running out amid stagnant productivity, a housing affordability crisis and the slowdown in China’s economy. Another developed country that has had luck on its side is Japan. Having endured more than three “lost decades” in a prolonged struggle against deflation,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3343260/japan-will-soon-learn-how-far-takaichi-can-ride-her-luck?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3343260/japan-will-soon-learn-how-far-takaichi-can-ride-her-luck?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Feb 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has her work cut out for her. Among the daunting challenges confronting her after winning a resounding victory in a parliamentary election on February 8, tackling the rising cost of living is at the top of her political to-do list. Mounting concerns about the dramatic rise in property prices in Tokyo and other large cities have proved fertile ground for scapegoating, with immigration figuring prominently in election campaigns. Last year, the average price... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3342877/asian-property-markets-supply-constraints-are-double-edged-sword?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3342877/asian-property-markets-supply-constraints-are-double-edged-sword?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 09 Feb 2026 08:31:02 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For some of the most dramatic swings in financial markets in recent memory, look no further than the plunge in the price of silver on January 30. The precious metal suffered its largest one-day fall since March 1980, losing a staggering 27 per cent. Gold, silver’s more illustrious cousin, also experienced its steepest one-day decline since early 1980, dropping 9 per cent. The ferocity of the sell-off was matched only by the intensity of the surge in the precious metal markets in the past few... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3342464/why-trump-not-asian-investors-blame-gold-and-silver-volatility?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3342464/why-trump-not-asian-investors-blame-gold-and-silver-volatility?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Feb 2026 08:30:37 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Hong Kong has its mojo back. The city’s economy grew 3.5 per cent last year, the fastest pace since 2021, according to an advanced estimate published by the Census and Statistics Department on January 30. A sharp increase in exports, the unexpected driver of growth in many Asian economies last year, was a key factor in Hong Kong’s resurgence. The rebound was underpinned by the dramatic revival in the city’s capital markets. Share sales nearly quadrupled last year to more than US$73 billion... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3342044/hong-kongs-housing-market-recovery-rests-solid-foundations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3342044/hong-kongs-housing-market-recovery-rests-solid-foundations?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 Feb 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney does not mince his words. Writing for The Economist last November, Carney argued the post-Cold War had collapsed and said the world was “entering an era of ‘variable geometry’” involving “pragmatic coalitions, built around shared interests, and occasionally shared values, rather than shared institutions”. The essay, it turns out, was the prelude to a hard-hitting speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 20. Carney told attendees... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3341634/what-ruptured-globalisation-means-international-finance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3341634/what-ruptured-globalisation-means-international-finance?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 29 Jan 2026 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro The post-pandemic recovery in Asia’s hotel industry is patchy. While international tourist arrivals in some countries surpassed 2019 levels some time ago, most markets have yet to experience a full return to pre-Covid levels. According to CBRE, only three of the 13 major markets in the Asia-Pacific region – Japan, Vietnam and South Korea – welcomed more overseas tourists in the first half of 2025 than in the corresponding period in 2019. All three have cheap currencies that made them more... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3341211/how-thailand-india-and-japan-illustrate-asias-patchy-recovery-hospitality?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3341211/how-thailand-india-and-japan-illustrate-asias-patchy-recovery-hospitality?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 26 Jan 2026 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro It’s been one year since US President Donald Trump began his second term. Few analysts and investors doubted Trump 2.0 would be more confrontational and disruptive. Still, the ferocity of Trump’s attacks on the rule of law, institutions and US allies have far exceeded the worst fears of his sternest critics. That a supposed ally is using economic coercion to seize the sovereign territory of a fellow member of Nato shows how fast the unthinkable has become real. At the World Economic Forum in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3340784/why-europe-struggles-stand-trump?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3340784/why-europe-struggles-stand-trump?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 22 Jan 2026 08:30:12 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro One acronym has epitomised investors’ perception of US President Donald Trump’s resolve in following through on his threats to impose sky-high tariffs on America’s trading partners. On May 2 last year, Financial Times commentator Robert Armstrong came up with “Taco”, which stands for “Trump always chickens out”. This was meant to describe the sharp rally in stock markets following Trump’s decision in April to suspend his “reciprocal” tariffs. Further climbdowns, albeit partial ones, convinced... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339950/taco-trump-its-traders-who-are-chickening-out-now?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339950/taco-trump-its-traders-who-are-chickening-out-now?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 15 Jan 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For a region that was expected to bear the brunt of US President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz, Asia’s economies performed remarkably well last year. JPMorgan said Asia “dodged a bullet”. However, in the region’s real estate industry, there are other bullets to fear. In the housing market, the severity of the deterioration in affordability is matched only by the futility of many of the policies aimed at improving it. It is not a coincidence that five of the six cities with the fastest rates of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3339542/affordability-japan-data-centres-what-will-drive-asian-property-2026?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3339542/affordability-japan-data-centres-what-will-drive-asian-property-2026?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 12 Jan 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For some time now, global economic cycles and financial market trends have been less US-centric and more multipolar in nature. This might seem counterintuitive given the long period of “American exceptionalism” stemming from the US dollar’s role as the world’s leading reserve currency, America’s deep and transparent capital markets, huge natural and human resources and the dominance of its technology companies in global equity indices. Deeper forces have been at play in the past several years,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339120/chinese-stocks-could-be-biggest-winner-venezuela-fallout?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339120/chinese-stocks-could-be-biggest-winner-venezuela-fallout?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Jan 2026 08:30:11 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro A cursory glance at Asia’s commercial real estate leasing and investment markets shows that mainland China and Hong Kong are the weakest links. With the exception of Ho Chi Minh City and Taipei, mainland China’s first-tier cities and Hong Kong are the only markets that will experience a decline in office rents this year, according to Knight Frank data. In the investment market, while transaction volumes across the Asia-Pacific increased 7 per cent in the first three quarters of 2025, they fell... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3338726/will-hong-kong-mainland-property-see-recovery-2026-dont-bet-it?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3338726/will-hong-kong-mainland-property-see-recovery-2026-dont-bet-it?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 05 Jan 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Judging by investor sentiment in the final quarter of last year, the spectacular rally in mainland Chinese and Hong Kong equities is over. The CSI 300 index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks declined 0.2 per cent while the MSCI China Index fell by over 7 per cent. The Hang Seng Index, meanwhile, lost 4.5 per cent. While most Wall Street banks remain bullish on Chinese stocks, some have turned more cautious. Morgan Stanley believes 2026 will be “a year of stabilization after 2025’s high... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3338368/why-investors-should-remain-bullish-hong-kong-mainland-stocks-2026?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3338368/why-investors-should-remain-bullish-hong-kong-mainland-stocks-2026?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Jan 2026 08:37:37 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro When US President Donald Trump stood outside the White House on April 2 and unveiled his punitive “Liberation Day” tariffs on most US trading partners, Asia was singled out for particularly harsh punishment. With the region accounting for seven of the 10 economies with the largest trade surpluses with the US, Asia was bound to be hit hard. However, as 2025 draws to a close, Asia’s economies have shown remarkable resilience. While several factors are at play, the most important one is the boom in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3337983/how-ai-helped-asias-real-estate-sector-pass-tariff-stress-test?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3337983/how-ai-helped-asias-real-estate-sector-pass-tariff-stress-test?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 29 Dec 2025 08:31:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro As 2025 draws to a close, Wall Street’s love affair with Chinese equities is in full swing. While the relationship between global investors and China has been a rocky one, market sentiment is now about varying degrees of bullishness. In a panel discussion moderated by JPMorgan at the annual meeting of the Emerging Markets Trading Association earlier this month, some of the speakers said China’s stock market had undergone a shift from “uninvestable” to “irresistible”, especially in the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3337436/has-chinas-stock-market-gone-uninvestable-irresistible?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3337436/has-chinas-stock-market-gone-uninvestable-irresistible?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 25 Dec 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Calling the recovery in Hong Kong’s property sector has been a devilishly difficult task. Since 2019, a succession of domestic and external shocks has delayed a revival in sales and leasing activity, preventing a broad, sustainable recovery from taking hold and fuelling uncertainty about the timing of a meaningful upturn. To be sure, there have been increasing signs of resilience and strength, especially in the housing market. Average rents hit a record high in September and have risen more than... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3337271/rebound-hong-kongs-central-office-market-could-be-turning-point?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3337271/rebound-hong-kongs-central-office-market-could-be-turning-point?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 22 Dec 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro One of the biggest sources of concern in global stock markets in recent years has been concentration risk. Long before the launch of ChatGPT – the chatbot whose debut in November 2022 stoked a frenzy of excitement about generative artificial intelligence (AI) – the benchmark S&P 500 index was dominated by a clutch of giant technology companies. In 2019, the 10 biggest companies in the index – led by the “Magnificent Seven” stocks consisting of Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3336850/fears-ai-bubble-asian-stock-markets-are-misplaced?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3336850/fears-ai-bubble-asian-stock-markets-are-misplaced?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 18 Dec 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Numbers do not always tell the whole story. But they are revealing nonetheless. In 2013, direct investment transaction volumes in India’s commercial property sector stood at around US$1.3 billion. By contrast, in China (excluding Hong Kong), investment activity reached US$27 billion. In South Korea, transactions stood at US$12.2 billion, data from MSCI shows. The woefully low level of investment in India – a leading emerging market that at the time was already the world’s third-largest economy... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3336433/indias-property-market-enters-big-league-challenges-remain?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3336433/indias-property-market-enters-big-league-challenges-remain?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 15 Dec 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Every quarter, Knight Frank publishes an index tracking the movement of prime residential prices and rents in leading cities around the world. Although the index is just a snapshot that should be treated with caution given significant differences in the performance of submarkets within cities, its findings are nevertheless revealing. In the sales market, five of the six cities with the fastest growth in prices last quarter were in Asia. In Tokyo, prices rose a staggering 56 per cent on an... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3335554/asias-housing-affordability-squeeze-shows-no-signs-slowing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3335554/asias-housing-affordability-squeeze-shows-no-signs-slowing?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 08 Dec 2025 08:31:35 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For a sign of the degree to which US President Donald Trump’s decision in August to double tariffs on most Indian goods to a staggering 50 per cent – the highest rate across Asia – is weighing on investor sentiment, look no further than the rupee. Having plumbed a series of record lows in recent months, India’s currency has been the worst performer in Asia this year and has breached the psychologically important level of 90 per US dollar. One of the last major economies yet to strike a trade... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3335150/india-and-japan-show-impact-trumps-tariffs-extend-beyond-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3335150/india-and-japan-show-impact-trumps-tariffs-extend-beyond-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Dec 2025 08:32:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro HSBC, whose relatively bullish view on China’s residential property sector ranks as one of the bravest calls in markets, said in February that 2025 would mark an inflection point for the ailing industry. “We’ve long anticipated government intervention, pent-up demand and a necessary market correction to drive a gradual recovery in property sales – and we’re seeing signs of all of that playing out now,” HSBC said at the time. These green shoots, however, were confined to first-tier cities and had... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3334727/why-china-vankes-debt-woes-have-barely-made-ripple-markets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3334727/why-china-vankes-debt-woes-have-barely-made-ripple-markets?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 01 Dec 2025 08:30:12 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro This has been a brutal month for bitcoin enthusiasts. Since hitting an all-time high of US$124,752 on October 7, the original cryptocurrency has plunged 28 per cent and is on track for its worst month since June 2022, when a string of corporate collapses rocked the cryptocurrency industry. The dramatic sell-off has helped wipe almost US$1.2 trillion off the market capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market, of which bitcoin accounts for 58 per cent. The speed and scale of the decline are... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3334308/bitcoins-bruising-month-shows-perils-going-mainstream?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3334308/bitcoins-bruising-month-shows-perils-going-mainstream?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 27 Nov 2025 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro When Sanae Takaichi won the race for the leadership of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party last month, investors and analysts knew what was in store for Asia’s second-largest economy and its relations with its regional neighbours, especially China. Japan’s first female prime minister is a nationalist and strong proponent of fiscal stimulus to boost growth, increase defence spending and tackle a cost-of-living crisis stemming from the surge in prices since the beginning of 2022. In a LinkedIn... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333893/takaichis-nationalism-and-fiscal-stimulus-test-japans-property-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333893/takaichis-nationalism-and-fiscal-stimulus-test-japans-property-market?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 24 Nov 2025 08:30:16 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro As 2025 draws to a close, three themes loom large in politics, economics and finance. The first is the unprecedented degree of uncertainty and unpredictability when it comes to the performance of economies and asset prices, amplified by US President Donald Trump’s erratic policymaking. Who would have predicted at the start of this year that the MSCI All Country World Index, a gauge of global stocks, would stand slightly below its all-time high five weeks before Christmas? More surprisingly, who... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333485/south-koreas-challenges-taste-whats-come-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333485/south-koreas-challenges-taste-whats-come-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 20 Nov 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In global stock markets, worries about the economic damage from US President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz seem like a distant memory. The overriding concern in the past few months has been the threat of a bubble in artificial intelligence (AI). In Bank of America’s latest monthly global fund manager survey, an AI equity bubble was cited as the top “tail risk”, posing a bigger threat than the resurgence of inflation. Although various factors are at play, the issue that most perturbs investors is... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333044/ai-fuelled-data-centre-bubble-making-not-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333044/ai-fuelled-data-centre-bubble-making-not-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 17 Nov 2025 08:30:11 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Is this the year emerging market stocks finally turned the corner? At the start of 2025, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the main gauge of equities in developing economies, was near the same level it was at in September 2010. The benchmark S&P 500 index, by contrast, was up almost 500 per cent. For the past 15 years, emerging market shares have underperformed their developed market peers. This is one of the most striking disconnects between economic heft – developing countries’ share of global... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3332584/emerging-market-rally-much-about-fleeing-us-finding-value?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3332584/emerging-market-rally-much-about-fleeing-us-finding-value?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 13 Nov 2025 08:30:11 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In an interview with Fox News in April, Peter Navarro, US President Donald Trump’s senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing, described Vietnam as “essentially a colony of communist China”. For someone who believes trade negotiations with Beijing are pointless, such extremist views are unsurprising. Yet the fact that Navarro, the chief architect of Trump’s trade wars, has it in for Vietnam attests to both the vulnerability and the strength of the country’s manufacturing sector. Among the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3332154/vietnams-property-sector-prime-example-asias-tariff-resilience?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3332154/vietnams-property-sector-prime-example-asias-tariff-resilience?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 10 Nov 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro This week marks the first anniversary of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Trump’s return to the White House was a stunning political comeback that cleared the way for him to carry out his “America first” agenda of higher trade tariffs, more confrontational relationships with traditional US allies and a clampdown on immigration. At the time, many investors were worried about the consequences of Trump’s nationalist policies. A week after the election, Bank of America... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331716/has-trump-20-really-been-boon-stock-markets-and-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331716/has-trump-20-really-been-boon-stock-markets-and-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Nov 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro South Korean President Lee Jae-myung does not mince his words. In an interview with Bloomberg last week, Lee said South Korea’s residential property market was a bubble waiting to burst. He called the housing market a “ticking bomb” and said South Korea could go the way of early 1990s Japan, whose epic real estate bust condemned the nation to decades of stagnation and deflation. Such alarmist talk from a president who took office in June after pledging to stabilise the housing market and improve... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3331289/south-korea-not-headed-japanese-style-housing-bust?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3331289/south-korea-not-headed-japanese-style-housing-bust?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 03 Nov 2025 08:30:59 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro At the end of last year, Wall Street banks were rattling off reasons Asia’s economies were acutely vulnerable to the onslaught of protectionism that was about to be unleashed as then president-elect Donald Trump prepared to return to the White House. In a report in November, Morgan Stanley noted that seven of the 10 economies running the largest trade surpluses with the US were in Asia. It also said the region, excluding China, had become more dependent on America as a source of end demand. Last... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3330849/asias-trading-powerhouses-are-more-trump-proof-many-feared?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3330849/asias-trading-powerhouses-are-more-trump-proof-many-feared?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 30 Oct 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro When predicting and assessing the shape of recoveries, analysts have made use of letters of the alphabet. A V-shaped recovery denotes a sharp rebound following a steep downturn. If the recovery takes a U-shape, however, both the trough of the downturn and the recovery last much longer. An L-shaped recovery signifies that activity never recovers meaningfully. In Hong Kong, pinning a letter to the trajectory of an industry is easiest in the financial sector. The city’s equity market has staged a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3330421/u-shaped-rebound-hong-kongs-commercial-property-unlikely?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3330421/u-shaped-rebound-hong-kongs-commercial-property-unlikely?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 27 Oct 2025 08:30:15 +0000