https://www.scmp.com/rss/308244/feed Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments. en https://assets-v2.i-scmp.com/production/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro There are good reasons for investors to be bullish about artificial intelligence (AI). The earnings of technology firms in the S&P 500 are expected to increase 54 per cent this year. For the index as a whole, profits will rise 33 per cent, turbocharged by the tech and energy sectors, data from FactSet shows. In Asia, the impact of the AI boom is even more profound. Corporate earnings in South Korea and Taiwan, the two leading semiconductor hubs, are expected to grow a staggering 283 per cent and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3373341/ai-sell-taste-things-come https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3373341/ai-sell-taste-things-come Thu, 05 Nov 2026 21:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In November 2024, the yield on China’s 30-year government bond fell below its Japanese equivalent for the first time. This was a big deal in financial markets, fanning fears that China’s economy was vulnerable to the type of crisis that condemned Japan to decades of deflation and stagnant growth following the bursting of its asset price bubble in the early 1990s. In November 2025, China’s benchmark 10-year yield followed suit. Although the convergence in the two countries’ bond yields had as... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3372512/chinas-industrial-strength-keeps-it-turning-japanese https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3372512/chinas-industrial-strength-keeps-it-turning-japanese Thu, 29 Oct 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro When it comes to sentiment among Asian fund managers, Indonesia and India are distinctly out of favour. The findings of a survey by Bank of America on October 13 revealed that Asia’s fifth- and third-largest economies were the least preferred equity markets in the region. Since the beginning of this year, the Jakarta Composite Index has fallen 39 per cent, making it the world’s worst-performing stock market. India’s Nifty 50 Index, meanwhile, is down 12.7 per cent, putting it on track to record... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3371722/why-market-sell-offs-india-and-indonesia-have-little-common https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3371722/why-market-sell-offs-india-and-indonesia-have-little-common Thu, 22 Oct 2026 21:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For a truly staggering figure, look no further than an estimate from Columbia Business School Professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh of the cumulative investment in artificial intelligence-related infrastructure by 2032. In a paper last month, Van Nieuwerburgh said the AI buildout could reach US$10.3 trillion, the equivalent of 3.6 per cent of annual US economic output for the next seven years. The average annual capital expenditure dwarfs previous infrastructure booms, including railways, highways... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3370945/why-ai-investment-boom-could-spark-next-financial-crisis https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3370945/why-ai-investment-boom-could-spark-next-financial-crisis Thu, 15 Oct 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro When the governor of the Bank of France feels it is necessary to point out that “France is not Greece during the euro zone crisis”, it is clear there is a confidence problem at the heart of Europe’s monetary union. While there are stark differences between the current threats facing the single currency area and those that almost tore apart the bloc in 2012, bond investors can smell blood. Worryingly, France – the euro-zone’s second-largest economy, which was previously treated by investors as... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3370128/how-japanese-bond-yields-chinese-competition-are-stoking-euro-zone-fears https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3370128/how-japanese-bond-yields-chinese-competition-are-stoking-euro-zone-fears Thu, 08 Oct 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Last November, Morgan Stanley released its year-ahead outlook for Chinese equities. It said it expected “2026 to be a year for the market to strive for stabilisation and sustainability, before potentially clearing a path for a further major breakthrough, while dealing with several domestic and external moving factors”. Given that the MSCI China Index, which tracks Chinese firms listed at home and abroad, had already risen nearly 40 per cent in the first 10 months of 2025, the bank’s cautious... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3369411/another-chinese-bear-market-dont-rely-wall-street-forecasts https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3369411/another-chinese-bear-market-dont-rely-wall-street-forecasts Thu, 01 Oct 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Every other year, JLL and LaSalle publish the results of their Global Real Estate Transparency Index. The index is a benchmark of market transparency that assesses the legal and regulatory environment, availability of data and operating conditions across 88 countries and 146 city markets. One of the key findings of the latest edition was that the most transparent markets – which include the United Kingdom, Australia and Japan – experienced the strongest growth in investment in commercial... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3369027/why-hong-kong-and-mainland-china-must-not-ignore-property-market-transparency https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3369027/why-hong-kong-and-mainland-china-must-not-ignore-property-market-transparency Mon, 28 Sep 2026 08:30:14 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro As Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in Washington for his much-anticipated summit with US President Donald Trump, it is clear which country emerged stronger from the tariff shock. Last month, China’s exports rose 25 per cent in annualised terms, causing the country’s trade surplus to swell to US$119 billion and putting it on track to exceed last year’s record of US$1.2 trillion. Moreover, China’s surplus with the US rose 44 per cent to US$29 billion, the widest gap since Trump returned to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3368593/who-has-upper-hand-financial-markets-us-or-china https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3368593/who-has-upper-hand-financial-markets-us-or-china Thu, 24 Sep 2026 08:30:04 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank, probably anticipated the rise in US interest rates last week. However, it is unlikely it foresaw the extent to which the Federal Reserve shifted in a hawkish direction. Even Fed watchers were surprised by the unanimous vote to increase borrowing costs and the unambiguous signal that the central bank plans to raise interest rates further in the coming months. While the HKMA, which moves in lockstep with the Fed to safeguard the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3368199/why-hawkish-us-fed-wont-derail-hong-kongs-property-recovery https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3368199/why-hawkish-us-fed-wont-derail-hong-kongs-property-recovery Mon, 21 Sep 2026 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Before the unexpected intervention in Japan’s foreign exchange market by the US Treasury Department on July 31 – the first time both countries joined forces to support the yen via outright purchases since 1998 – the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates at its policy meeting on September 17-18 was less than 30 per cent. Fast forward to today, and the chances of an increase have shot up to almost 100 per cent. In fact, expectations have shifted so dramatically that bond markets... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3367804/whos-control-japanese-monetary-policy-tokyo-or-washington https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3367804/whos-control-japanese-monetary-policy-tokyo-or-washington Thu, 17 Sep 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Albert Edwards, head of global strategy at Societe Generale, is renowned for his bearish views on the global economy and stock markets. Weak domestic demand in China is grist to his mill. In a report on August 25, Edwards said the collapse in China’s credit impulse – the change in credit growth as a percentage of economic output – was the most underappreciated trend in global markets right now. Edwards singled out recent data on China’s housing market which Societe Generale analysts described as... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3367396/why-shanghai-offers-hope-chinas-ailing-real-estate-market https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3367396/why-shanghai-offers-hope-chinas-ailing-real-estate-market Mon, 14 Sep 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro There is no shortage of reasons to worry about the outlook for the global economy and markets. On September 9, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, surpassed US$100 a barrel in response to the intensification of hostilities in the Middle East. Bank of America warned that a renewed escalation in the conflict between Iran and the United States would prove more damaging to a global economy which “would no longer have the oil inventories buffer as it had early in the year”. Another threat... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3366993/why-global-economy-and-markets-continue-defy-doomsayers https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3366993/why-global-economy-and-markets-continue-defy-doomsayers Thu, 10 Sep 2026 12:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro More than two decades after China’s central bank recommended that developers be forbidden from selling flats before they are completed, the government has called time on the presale financing model that contributed to the excesses of the property boom and shattered homebuyers’ confidence in the market. On August 28, Beijing announced a package of measures designed to rebuild trust in the completion and handover of pre-sold homes, stimulate demand and put the country’s ailing residential market... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3366586/chinas-new-property-presale-rules-risk-prolonging-sector-downturn https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3366586/chinas-new-property-presale-rules-risk-prolonging-sector-downturn Mon, 07 Sep 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Doom-mongering pervades financial markets, especially these days when there are mounting concerns about a rise in interest rates and an artificial intelligence-fuelled bubble in stock markets. The alarmism invariably stems from attempts by commentators and analysts to connect the dots, many of which are unlikeable or misperceived. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Asia. Nearly 30 years after the Thai baht lost its peg to the US dollar, causing widespread contagion across the region that... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3366182/asia-not-edge-new-1997-style-financial-crisis https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3366182/asia-not-edge-new-1997-style-financial-crisis Thu, 03 Sep 2026 08:30:12 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro The long-standing rivalry between Asia’s two leading financial centres is heating up. As Hong Kong and Singapore compete harder for investment talent, tax incentives for fund managers have emerged as the new battleground. A government bill working its way through Hong Kong’s Legislative Council would result in sweeping changes to tax rules on carried interest. The legislation, which is expected to be approved later this year, would offer preferential tax treatment to a wider range of alternative... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3365795/hong-kong-and-singapore-property-shrug-fund-tax-breaks https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3365795/hong-kong-and-singapore-property-shrug-fund-tax-breaks Mon, 31 Aug 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Two years ago, the prospect of a trade war between the United States and Canada, two of the world’s most closely integrated economies, would have been unthinkable. However, US President Donald Trump’s recklessness and capriciousness know no bounds. Last week’s breakdown in negotiations between the North American neighbours, which triggered the imposition of US tariffs of 50 per cent on a wide range of Canadian goods, showed the degree to which Trump’s trade policies are vindictive, politicised... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3365395/bond-market-revolt-signals-fading-confidence-us-economic-leadership https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3365395/bond-market-revolt-signals-fading-confidence-us-economic-leadership Thu, 27 Aug 2026 12:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In global commercial real estate investment markets, data centres are all the rage. While stock markets continue to suffer bouts of volatility as sentiment oscillates between concerns artificial intelligence (AI) will fall short of expectations and fears it will prove more disruptive than many think, the fundamentals of data centres are exceptionally strong. According to JLL, global data centre occupancy was 97 per cent at the end of last year while 77 per cent of all capacity under construction... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3365008/malaysias-data-centre-rules-aim-green-sector-not-slam-door https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3365008/malaysias-data-centre-rules-aim-green-sector-not-slam-door Mon, 24 Aug 2026 08:30:06 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Global bond markets are throwing a tantrum. On August 17, the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds hit 5.3 per cent, its highest level since 2007 and up from 4.8 per cent as recently as June 29. The average yield on long-term debt across the Group of 7 advanced economies is the highest since 2008. Several factors are at play. One of them is the surge in longer-dated debt issued by leading technology companies as they ramp up capital spending on artificial intelligence (AI), especially data... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3364632/japan-faces-tough-inflation-growth-trade-and-its-not-alone https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3364632/japan-faces-tough-inflation-growth-trade-and-its-not-alone Thu, 20 Aug 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Global commercial real estate investment markets are roaring back to life. In the first half of this year, direct investment in commercial property rose 27 per cent in annualised terms. The sharpest increase was in the Asia-Pacific, where transaction volumes were up 38 per cent to US$92.5 billion, the strongest half-yearly performance on record, according to data from JLL. While there have been many positive surprises in Asian real estate since the eruption of the Covid-19 pandemic, the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3364238/chinas-property-recovery-fragile-ignoring-it-mistake https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3364238/chinas-property-recovery-fragile-ignoring-it-mistake Mon, 17 Aug 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro These are testing times for the artificial intelligence (AI) trade that has been driving global equity markets. No other investment theme comes close to rivalling the importance of the AI boom as the world’s largest technology companies spend vast sums of money on data centres, memory chips and computing power. At the same time, no other risk divides opinion more than the threat of a dramatic and sustained sell-off in AI-related stocks. According to the latest Bank of America global fund manager... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3363845/could-china-be-hedge-against-risk-ai-investment-boom-going-bust https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3363845/could-china-be-hedge-against-risk-ai-investment-boom-going-bust Thu, 13 Aug 2026 12:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Signs of recovery in Hong Kong’s real estate industry are becoming more apparent, so much so that key indicators in parts of the sector are experiencing some of the fastest growth rates in the Asia-Pacific. In the hotel market, average daily rates, which were declining in annualised terms for most of 2025, grew 9.5 per cent in the first half of this year. This was the third-fastest growth rate among 14 leading markets across the region, according to data from CBRE. Another sign that the recovery... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3363476/hong-kong-hotel-sector-recovery-elusive-unprepared-investors https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3363476/hong-kong-hotel-sector-recovery-elusive-unprepared-investors Mon, 10 Aug 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Has the interminable decline in the yen finally run its course? Since the beginning of 2022, Japan’s currency has fallen a staggering 36 per cent against the US dollar. Despite the resolve of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to keep raising interest rates, the surge in Japanese bond yields over the past year, and frequent interventions by the government to support the currency, the yen has continued to weaken. On July 23, it dropped to its weakest level against the greenback since 1986, sliding past the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3363123/us-efforts-prop-yen-risk-doing-more-harm-good https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3363123/us-efforts-prop-yen-risk-doing-more-harm-good Thu, 06 Aug 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro India’s property market has gone from strength to strength. All the main sectors continue to perform extremely well. Last year, take-up of shopping centre and warehouse space reached record highs. In the first half of this year, office leasing volumes rose to their second-highest level for the period on record, while new flat sales in the eight largest cities delivered one of the strongest half-yearly performances in 12 years. Even the institutional investment market, the least liquid among the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3362743/affordable-housing-critical-gap-indias-real-estate-boom https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3362743/affordable-housing-critical-gap-indias-real-estate-boom Mon, 03 Aug 2026 21:30:06 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Ever since the Covid-19 pandemic erupted, concerns about “K-shaped” economies have proliferated. When it comes to describing business cycles, economists and investors have often used letters of the alphabet, yet it is the emergence of a bifurcated K-shaped economy that best describes the acute challenges confronting governments around the world. Initially a US-centric description of the post-pandemic recovery, the K highlights a sharp divergence in which different parts of the economy experience... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3362330/upper-arm-chinas-k-shaped-economy-both-blessing-and-curse https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3362330/upper-arm-chinas-k-shaped-economy-both-blessing-and-curse Thu, 30 Jul 2026 08:30:06 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In the first half of this year, investment in Hong Kong commercial real estate reached HK$24.1 billion (US$3.1 billion), up 56 per cent in annualised terms, according to CBRE data. The education industry was a crucial source of demand, generating HK$10 billion worth of transactions, with many of these deals involving assets for conversion into student housing. At a time when the living sector – which includes traditional rental housing, purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) and housing for... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3361934/why-hong-kongs-student-housing-market-faces-race-against-time https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3361934/why-hong-kongs-student-housing-market-faces-race-against-time Mon, 27 Jul 2026 08:30:06 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For the most dramatic change in a benchmark index in financial markets in recent years, look no further than the stock markets of developing economies. Just over a year ago, mainland China and India had a combined weight of 50 per cent in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Fast forward to today, and it is South Korea and Taiwan that account for over half of the gauge. At the end of last month, the weight of South Korea in the index stood at nearly 24 per cent, four percentage points more than that... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3361547/ai-trade-keeps-capital-and-risks-flowing-emerging-markets https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3361547/ai-trade-keeps-capital-and-risks-flowing-emerging-markets Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Divergences within markets and sectors in Asia’s real estate industry are nothing new. Broad trends in leasing and investment activity in the countries across the region mask variations in the performance and outlook for different cities and sub-markets. They can also give rise to flawed or misleading narratives. What is striking is that these divergences are increasingly apparent in countries that have been at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of performance in recent years. Among the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3361155/asian-property-thin-line-separates-strength-vulnerability https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3361155/asian-property-thin-line-separates-strength-vulnerability Mon, 20 Jul 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Since being sworn in as US Federal Reserve chairman on May 22, Kevin Warsh has struck a distinctly hawkish tone. At his first press conference at the helm of the world’s most important central bank on June 17, Warsh made a solemn vow to curb inflation. He said members of the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee were “unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability”. Bond investors who questioned Warsh’s inflation-fighting credibility – given that he built his candidacy... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3360748/silence-isnt-golden-world-looking-kevin-warshs-fed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3360748/silence-isnt-golden-world-looking-kevin-warshs-fed Thu, 16 Jul 2026 12:30:06 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Hong Kong’s residential real estate market is roaring back to life. Prices for second-hand properties have risen 18 per cent since March last year, while average rents continue to hit new highs. The number of units sold in the primary market in the first half of this year reached a 22-year high. According to Knight Frank, which tracks sales of “super-prime” properties above US$10 million in 12 leading residential markets, Hong Kong was the second-most widely traded market in the first quarter of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3360318/why-chinese-wealth-still-powering-hong-kong-and-singapore-property https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3360318/why-chinese-wealth-still-powering-hong-kong-and-singapore-property Mon, 13 Jul 2026 08:30:06 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Why are global investors so bearish on the yen? There are good reasons Japan’s currency should be gaining in value. Last month, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates to a 31-year high of 1 per cent and signalled it would continue increasing borrowing costs. Bond markets are currently pricing in a nearly 90 per cent probability of another increase by December. Nominal wages in Japan have risen by more than 3 per cent for four straight months, the longest streak since 1992. Moreover, the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3359925/investors-have-more-worry-about-yen-bears-hunt https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3359925/investors-have-more-worry-about-yen-bears-hunt Thu, 09 Jul 2026 08:30:06 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro There are many disconnects in financial markets. One of them is Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, which currently stands at just 2.7 per cent despite the country’s large public debt burden – more than 240 per cent of economic output. Although Japanese bond yields have risen sharply in the past three years, the 10-year yield is slightly lower than that of Germany, whose government debt as a percentage of economic activity is around one-quarter the size of Japan’s. Another anomaly is the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3359117/why-hong-kong-has-become-years-worst-performing-stock-market https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3359117/why-hong-kong-has-become-years-worst-performing-stock-market Thu, 02 Jul 2026 08:30:15 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Artificial intelligence (AI) is a transformative force in economies and financial markets. McKinsey estimates that data centres alone will need a staggering US$6.7 trillion in capital investment across the global data centre value chain in the next five years, and the scale of the investment suggests the world economy is in the early stages of a far-reaching shift that could lead to big gains in productivity. In a report on June 24, Vanguard said the massive buildout of AI infrastructure... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3358695/concern-over-ais-impact-asias-real-estate-sector-misplaced https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3358695/concern-over-ais-impact-asias-real-estate-sector-misplaced Mon, 29 Jun 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In July 2024, India’s weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a leading gauge of stocks in developing economies, hit a record high of 19.99 per cent. At the time, this was less than three percentage points below China’s weight, which at one point was as high as 43 per cent. Between 2022 and 2024, India was the darling of emerging market equity investors. The combination of the country’s fast-growing economy, strong corporate earnings, the Covid-19 pandemic-induced boom in retail trading and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3358283/investors-love-affair-india-ending https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3358283/investors-love-affair-india-ending Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:30:04 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro A cursory look at the ranking of the world’s largest shopping centres shows the scale of the decline in the US retail property market. The US has only one, the Mall of America near Minneapolis, Minnesota, among the top 20. This is not surprising given that virtually no shopping centres were built in the last two decades. A succession of shocks – which included the disruptive impact of e-commerce, the financial woes of department stores that served as anchor tenants for most malls and the damage... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3357865/what-retail-apocalypse-southeast-asias-malls-are-sitting-pretty https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3357865/what-retail-apocalypse-southeast-asias-malls-are-sitting-pretty Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro It is easy to lose count of the number of times US President Donald Trump said he was close to a deal with Iran. The announcement on June 14 by both the United States and Iran of a preliminary agreement to end their nearly four-month war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz appears to be more credible. Stock markets staged a relief rally while Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has dropped to US$78 a barrel, only slightly above its level when the war erupted on February 28. There are still... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3357500/reopening-strait-hormuz-wont-fix-worlds-energy-problems https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3357500/reopening-strait-hormuz-wont-fix-worlds-energy-problems Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:30:06 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro When it comes to the performance of real estate markets in the Asia-Pacific, Japan reigns supreme. Asia’s second largest economy is the deepest, most widely traded, and the safest market in the region. Last year, Japan accounted for 28 per cent of direct investment in Asia-Pacific commercial real estate, data from MSCI shows. The average vacancy rate for grade A offices in Tokyo was 0.7 per cent in the first quarter of this year. Rents have risen for nine straight quarters, increasing 13.2 per... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3357114/japans-property-sector-looks-strong-so-why-are-investors-going-abroad https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3357114/japans-property-sector-looks-strong-so-why-are-investors-going-abroad Mon, 15 Jun 2026 21:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro The global energy shock triggered by the war in Iran has changed the calculus for central banks. The surge in oil and gas prices has driven up inflation. According to JPMorgan, the average headline inflation rate in developed economies increased from 2.2 per cent in January to 3.3 per cent in April. Bond markets are concerned that central banks in advanced and emerging economies have fallen behind the curve. In a report on June 5, Bank of America said 46 of 68 central banks are currently... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3356691/investors-expecting-us-interest-rate-rise-could-be-surprise https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3356691/investors-expecting-us-interest-rate-rise-could-be-surprise Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For a sign of how the fierce demand for memory chips triggered by the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is benefiting technology-driven economies, look no further than South Korea. Last month, exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy grew at a blistering rate of 53 per cent in annualised terms, the fastest pace since 1984. Shipments of semiconductors, which are used to store and funnel the huge amounts of data for AI services, increased nearly 170 per cent to a record monthly high of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3355904/how-ai-chip-boom-has-made-south-korea-victim-its-own-success https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3355904/how-ai-chip-boom-has-made-south-korea-victim-its-own-success Thu, 04 Jun 2026 08:30:06 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro The global energy shock has accentuated some of the risks in property markets across the Asia-Pacific. The performance of tourism and hotel industries, particularly in Thailand, has come under scrutiny, while there are concerns about the impact of higher interest rates on leasing and investment activity, especially in Australia. However, the crisis has also focused attention on the strengths of the region’s real estate industry, which include premium offices and luxury homes, as well as signs of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3355509/property-recovery-hong-kong-mainland-china-warrants-attention https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3355509/property-recovery-hong-kong-mainland-china-warrants-attention Mon, 01 Jun 2026 10:17:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro A cursory glance at the performance of global stock markets this year suggests exposure to the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) is the overriding determinant of returns. Technology-heavy equity markets, especially those with a high concentration of leading semiconductor and tech hardware firms, have performed spectacularly. South Korea and Taiwan, major semiconductor hubs, are the poster children for the AI trade. The global chip shortage has led to a dramatic increase in the earnings and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3355115/how-ai-boom-obscuring-big-investment-opportunity-commodities https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3355115/how-ai-boom-obscuring-big-investment-opportunity-commodities Thu, 28 May 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Concerns about the Asia-Pacific region’s vulnerability to the global energy crisis abound. In a report on May 15, JPMorgan said that “the impact from the situation in the Middle East has evolved from a supply shock to a cost shock” as “rising input costs are now propagating through the entire supply chain – from upstream feedstocks to end-market consumer goods”. The fallout from the energy crisis, which has been more severe in Asia because of the region’s heavy dependence on oil and gas imports... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3354725/luxury-homes-premium-offices-underpin-asian-propertys-resilience https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3354725/luxury-homes-premium-offices-underpin-asian-propertys-resilience Mon, 25 May 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Since the end of March, global financial markets have been pulled in opposite directions. Government bond markets have experienced a slow-motion crash. On May 19, the yield on 30-year US bonds, which moves inversely to its price, rose to nearly 5.2 per cent, its highest level since June 2007. The average yield on 10-year sovereign bonds in the Group of 7 advanced economies has hit a 22-year high. Global stock markets, on the other hand, have been on a tear. Since March 30, the MSCI World Index,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3354315/asia-caught-tug-war-between-global-bond-and-stock-markets https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3354315/asia-caught-tug-war-between-global-bond-and-stock-markets Thu, 21 May 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Last year, investment in Japanese multifamily properties reached US$6.3 billion. While this accounted for 16 per cent of commercial real estate transaction volumes in Japan, it constituted almost half of the investment in institutional-grade rental housing in the whole of the Asia-Pacific. As the largest developed economy in the region, Japan has long dominated the investible rental housing market. According to LaSalle, “Japan’s multifamily sector is similarly mature to its US counterpart or UK... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3353926/why-asias-rental-housing-markets-outside-japan-are-luring-investors https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3353926/why-asias-rental-housing-markets-outside-japan-are-luring-investors Mon, 18 May 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro When US President Donald Trump last met President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on October 30 last year, the US Federal Reserve had just embarked on a monetary easing cycle. At the end of 2025, bond investors were betting that the Fed would continue reducing interest rates this year. Fast forward to today and the financial landscape is markedly different. While investors were still anticipating cuts in borrowing costs just before the war in Iran erupted at the end of February, they are now... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3353499/trump-xi-summit-puts-us-vulnerabilities-display https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3353499/trump-xi-summit-puts-us-vulnerabilities-display Thu, 14 May 2026 12:30:04 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro A wave of bullishness is sweeping through Hong Kong’s real estate market. A report by S&P Global Ratings on May 5 said an “upside surprise” could materialise. One of the catalysts for a stronger-than-expected recovery was evidence of more competitive bids at residential land auctions in recent months. S&P said, “Hong Kong has become the first major city in China whose property market has bottomed. That could attract developers from mainland China looking to secure new projects”. More aggressive... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3353092/hong-kongs-property-recovery-could-be-more-robust-many-think https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3353092/hong-kongs-property-recovery-could-be-more-robust-many-think Mon, 11 May 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For an indication of how much the energy crisis is shaping the path of monetary policy, look no further than Australia. On May 5, the country’s central bank raised interest rates for the third consecutive time, unwinding last year’s monetary easing. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said “higher fuel prices are adding to inflation and there are indications that this is likely to have second-round effects on prices for goods and services more broadly”. The RBA’s decision to keep tightening... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3352708/australias-interest-rate-rise-signals-growing-hawkish-stance-asia https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3352708/australias-interest-rate-rise-signals-growing-hawkish-stance-asia Thu, 07 May 2026 08:30:05 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Earlier this year, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang likened artificial intelligence (AI) to “a five-layer cake”. At the top are applications, such as chatbots. The layer below is the software, which includes language models. Further down are infrastructure and memory chips. The bottom layer is the most important. “At the foundation is energy,” Huang said, noting that “energy is the first principle of AI infrastructure and the binding constraint on how much intelligence the system can produce”. Driving... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3352325/energy-crisis-showcases-strengths-chinas-data-centre-market https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3352325/energy-crisis-showcases-strengths-chinas-data-centre-market Mon, 04 May 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For financial markets, the war in Iran and the energy shock that ensued might as well be over. Since March 30, the benchmark S&P 500 equity index has surged 12.5 per cent, exceeding the record high reached on January 27. Global shares have also bounced back sharply. The MSCI All-Country World Index ex US, a gauge of international stocks that excludes the United States, is less than 4 per cent below its all-time high on February 25. Several factors are at play. Most investors evidently believe... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351940/how-ai-boom-helping-asia-weather-iran-war-energy-shock https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351940/how-ai-boom-helping-asia-weather-iran-war-energy-shock Thu, 30 Apr 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Every quarter, Knight Frank publishes a report on luxury residential transactions – sales of homes worth US$10 million or more – in 12 leading markets around the world. In the final quarter of last year, Hong Kong was the second most actively traded market after Dubai, recording 81 deals with a total value of US$1.5 billion. For 2025 as a whole, Hong Kong was the fourth most widely traded market, ahead of London, which topped the ranking in 2022. Hong Kong’s strong performance is mostly... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351520/asian-private-wealth-emerging-force-property-investment https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351520/asian-private-wealth-emerging-force-property-investment Mon, 27 Apr 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In March 2024, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007, lifting borrowing costs out of negative territory and calling time on decades of ultra-loose monetary policy as Japan emerged from a long period of entrenched deflation. At the time, inflation had been above the central bank’s 2 per cent target for 22 months. Fast forward to today, and inflationary pressures continue to build. Although headline inflation fell to 1.3 per cent in February, this was because of the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351088/why-japans-central-bank-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351088/why-japans-central-bank-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place Thu, 23 Apr 2026 08:30:08 +0000