https://www.scmp.com/rss/308872/feed Yu Yongding, a former president of the China Society of World Economics and director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, served on the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China from 2004 to 2006. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Yu Yongding Yu Yongding In the years following the 2008 global financial crisis, bold stimulus measures enabled China to achieve a V-shaped recovery. Since then, however, the government has largely maintained neutral – even tight – macroeconomic policies. If China is to achieve its growth target for 2025, this must change. In fact, since September 2024, China has reoriented its macroeconomic stance substantially. Two indicators typically dictate whether a government pursues expansionary or contractionary macroeconomic... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3312863/why-china-needs-bold-fiscal-expansion-hit-5-cent-growth-target?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3312863/why-china-needs-bold-fiscal-expansion-hit-5-cent-growth-target?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 03 Jun 2025 10:30:07 +0000 In January, shortly before the Chinese government set its annual growth target at 5 per cent, I estimated that if net exports stopped declining, achieving 5 per cent growth would require boosting investment growth to 5.3 per cent, given a slowdown in consumption this year. To offset the expected sharp decline in real-estate investment, my calculations suggested that infrastructure investment would need to “increase significantly” – a goal that seemed within reach at the time. But the latest data... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3280846/china-must-still-bring-out-big-guns-revitalise-its-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3280846/china-must-still-bring-out-big-guns-revitalise-its-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Oct 2024 06:30:07 +0000 In recent months, Chinese overcapacity has been a major topic of discussion – and a source of controversy – among economists and policymakers around the world. While these concerns are not entirely off base, they are excessive and resolvable. Over the past four decades, as China has shifted from a planned economy characterised by shortages to a market economy oscillating between insufficient demand and overheating, its government has often sought to eliminate overcapacity whenever it arose. In... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3272529/china-must-not-repeat-its-mistakes-tackling-overcapacity?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3272529/china-must-not-repeat-its-mistakes-tackling-overcapacity?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 31 Jul 2024 12:30:11 +0000 The popular view is that China’s household consumption relative to its gross domestic product is exceptionally low. We believe China’s consumption is seriously undercounted, especially in housing expenditure. While policymakers can do a lot more to support household consumption, China’s consumption should not be made to bear all the blame for global imbalances. China’s headline household consumption relative to its gross domestic product has been under 40 per cent in the past few years, much... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3271424/why-chinese-consumption-cannot-completely-be-blamed-global-imbalances?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3271424/why-chinese-consumption-cannot-completely-be-blamed-global-imbalances?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Jul 2024 01:30:12 +0000 Economists have lately been sounding the alarm that China’s economic development is teetering on the edge of a crisis. The problem, they argue, is that China’s growth is driven by extremely high levels of capital investment, and that private consumption is being suppressed. Is a crisis really looming? It is true that China’s growth pattern could, for decades, be characterised as investment-driven. Like most East Asian economies, China supported development by leveraging its high savings rate to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3263536/relax-chinas-economy-not-headed-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3263536/relax-chinas-economy-not-headed-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 May 2024 07:36:46 +0000 The start of 2024 has been marked by a wave of increasingly pessimistic forecasts for China’s economy. While the Chinese government remains optimistic, the International Monetary Fund projects that GDP growth will slow to 4.6 per cent this year, from 5.4 per cent in 2023. Meanwhile, the Chinese stock market rout is expected to continue after share prices fell to their lowest level in five years. But China’s economic prospects are brighter than they appear. While the government has yet to publish... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250389/chinas-economic-prospects-are-brighter-they-appear?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250389/chinas-economic-prospects-are-brighter-they-appear?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 31 Jan 2024 06:30:11 +0000 China’s economic performance has been inspiring considerable pessimism lately. In the second quarter of this year, the Chinese economy grew by just 6.3 per cent from a year earlier – a figure that is disappointing because of the low base in the second quarter of 2022, when pandemic restrictions were still suppressing economic activity. And in July, China’s consumer price index (CPI) entered negative territory for the first time since 2021, sparking fears of a deflationary spiral. Whether all the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3236725/how-china-moving-boost-demand-and-achieve-higher-growth?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3236725/how-china-moving-boost-demand-and-achieve-higher-growth?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 04 Oct 2023 12:30:08 +0000 Last March, the Chinese government set a growth target of 5-5.5 per cent for gross domestic product for 2022. At the time, such growth levels appeared perfectly attainable. But within a month, the Omicron variant had arrived, triggering strict lockdowns that, while stemming the spread of the coronavirus, caused serious damage to the supply and demand sides of the economy. China’s growth rate for 2022 was just 3 per cent. But things are looking up for China’s economy. After the government’s rapid... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210065/how-chinas-economy-can-dodge-rising-inflation-reclaim-high-growth?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210065/how-chinas-economy-can-dodge-rising-inflation-reclaim-high-growth?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 14 Feb 2023 07:45:11 +0000 The renminbi’s value used to feature heavily in debates about global imbalances. While outsiders considered it to be undervalued and urged appreciation, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) insisted on maintaining the currency’s de facto peg to the US dollar. In recent years, however, China’s concerns that its currency would grow too strong have been replaced by fears of a sharp depreciation. Though China has sustained its current-account surplus, capital outflows have been putting the exchange... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204083/china-should-keep-focusing-growth-and-not-worry-about-weak-yuan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204083/china-should-keep-focusing-growth-and-not-worry-about-weak-yuan?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 22 Dec 2022 08:30:07 +0000 Whenever China’s GDP growth is below target, successive governments have relied on the same tool: government spending on infrastructure to stimulate the economy. But the success of fiscal stimulus requires getting the details of implementation right. Two challenges stand out. The first is financing. While Chinese policymakers rely on fiscal spending to help achieve the official growth target, they are uneasy about the central government’s rising leverage ratio – debt as a percentage of GDP – and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3197169/china-shifting-debt-burdens-local-governments-will-prove-costly-end?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3197169/china-shifting-debt-burdens-local-governments-will-prove-costly-end?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 26 Oct 2022 04:15:07 +0000 In 2004, everyone started talking about global imbalances. With its current account deficit at an alarming 5.3 per cent of GDP, it was feared the US net foreign-debt-to-GDP ratio would climb to the point that foreign investors would demand a higher risk premium on US dollar-denominated assets. The spectre of a “sudden stop”, a dollar crash and an international payment crisis seemed to be stalking the global economy. None of this has happened. Instead, the US current account deficit shrank,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3184136/how-geopolitics-and-fed-policies-are-putting-us-external?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3184136/how-geopolitics-and-fed-policies-are-putting-us-external?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Jul 2022 17:30:12 +0000 In The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War, historian Nicholas Mulder reminds us that even when Britain and Russia were savagely battling each other during the 1853-56 Crimean War, they continued to service their debts to each other. Likewise, when hedge funds launched predatory attacks on Asian currencies during the 1990s Asian financial crisis, they ultimately still played by the rules (even though their unethical behaviour brought some East Asian countries’ economic... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3175790/us-freezing-russian-central-bank-assets-over-ukraine-war-puts-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3175790/us-freezing-russian-central-bank-assets-over-ukraine-war-puts-china?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 28 Apr 2022 19:30:15 +0000 Despite strong global economic headwinds, not least from the Covid-19 pandemic, China managed to achieve 8.1 per cent GDP growth last year, its highest rate in a decade. With that, China met the International Monetary Fund’s expectations and far surpassed its own government’s 6 per cent target. But China’s economic performance is not quite as strong as it may seem, and not only because year-on-year growth figures were flattered by the pandemic-induced trough in 2020, when the growth rate slowed... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3167956/chinas-economy-struggling-heal-self-inflicted-wounds-its-property?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3167956/chinas-economy-struggling-heal-self-inflicted-wounds-its-property?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 23 Feb 2022 06:30:17 +0000 China is having an eventful month, marked by power-supply disruptions and the debt crisis of the country’s second-largest property developer, Evergrande. What does this mean for China’s post-pandemic economic recovery? The energy crisis started when a rapid increase in exports fuelled a sharp rise in demand for electricity. China remains dependent on coal for 56.8 per cent of its total electricity supply. And yet, in an effort to meet mandatory targets for reducing energy consumption, local... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3153257/why-chinas-slow-economic-growth-bigger-headache-its-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3153257/why-chinas-slow-economic-growth-bigger-headache-its-energy-crunch?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Oct 2021 17:30:22 +0000 In the second quarter of 2021, China’s GDP grew by 7.9 per cent year on year. That was a relatively strong performance, especially given the enduring effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy. But, for China, it represents a disappointment: a Caixin survey of economists showed the median estimate for the second quarter was 8.2 per cent growth. Chinese economists broadly agree that China’s potential growth rate is 6 per cent. So, taking into consideration the base effect, China’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3146444/chinas-economic-health-will-depend-its-covid-19-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3146444/chinas-economic-health-will-depend-its-covid-19-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Aug 2021 04:30:19 +0000 Recent price increases in the world’s two largest economies have unnerved global markets, which have become accustomed to low inflation. But, at least in China, a little inflation would not be a bad thing. In the United States, massive government spending during the Covid-19 crisis has raised fears of a financial reckoning. The consumer price index (CPI) surged 4.2 per cent year on year in April, the fastest growth since 2008. The producer price index (PPI) has also risen, to 217.5 in April, up... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3137651/china-least-little-inflation-may-not-be-bad-thing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3137651/china-least-little-inflation-may-not-be-bad-thing?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Jun 2021 17:30:00 +0000 The Chinese economy grew by 6.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020, providing a strong indication that it has recovered from the Covid-19 shock. The market consensus is that, due to base effects, GDP growth shot up to more than 18 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2021, and will fall steadily in the remaining three quarters of the year before finally stabilising. Addressing this year’s meeting of the National People’s Congress last month, Premier Li Keqiang announced that China’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3129513/why-china-cant-afford-tighten-economic-policy-just-yet?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3129513/why-china-cant-afford-tighten-economic-policy-just-yet?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 15 Apr 2021 06:30:08 +0000 On September 25, 2015, the world’s heads of state and government unanimously adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – a sweeping global blueprint for building a more equitable and sustainable world. But, more than five years later, progress towards the agenda’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals leaves much to be desired. Among the biggest constraints for countries striving to achieve the goals is the lack of financial resources. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic, many low- and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3123855/how-crackdown-illicit-funds-can-revive-uns-faltering-2030-agenda?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3123855/how-crackdown-illicit-funds-can-revive-uns-faltering-2030-agenda?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Mar 2021 07:45:07 +0000 In May, China’s central leadership proclaimed it would “fully develop the advantages of [the country’s] super-large market and the potential for domestic demand to establish a new development pattern featuring domestic and international dual circulations that complement each other.” “Dual circulation” has been the subject of intense discussion within and outside China ever since. Does the announcement signal a fundamental shift in China’s growth paradigm or development strategy? Why was this new... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3103643/dual-circulation-strategy-continues-chinas-push-open?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3103643/dual-circulation-strategy-continues-chinas-push-open?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 30 Sep 2020 08:35:13 +0000 In November, I pointed out that, since the global financial crisis a decade ago, China has allowed annual GDP growth to fall gradually from over 10 per cent to nearly 6 per cent. While a decline was appropriate, I wrote, it is time to stem the slowdown with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. Unexpectedly, my view sparked a heated debate among influential Chinese economists.  Many have rejected my proposal, offering a long list of justifications for their disagreement. For starters, they... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3044949/naysayers-are-wrong-about-chinas-economy-it-really-capable-growing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3044949/naysayers-are-wrong-about-chinas-economy-it-really-capable-growing?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 08 Jan 2020 19:00:15 +0000 China’s GDP growth may still be strong by global standards, but the annualised rate of 6 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 is the lowest the country has recorded since 1992. In fact, China’s GDP growth has been slowing steadily since the first quarter of 2010, when it exceeded 12 per cent, year on year. This downward trend is riskier than many observers seem to realise.  In recent years, the prospect of slower Chinese growth has gained widespread acceptance, both within and outside China. A... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3036521/china-needs-arrest-slowing-economic-growth-and-it-has-means-do-so?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3036521/china-needs-arrest-slowing-economic-growth-and-it-has-means-do-so?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 07 Nov 2019 04:00:06 +0000 In early August, the renminbi’s exchange rate broke through the psychological threshold of 7 yuan per US dollar. While investors were still digesting the full significance of this event, US President Donald Trump’s administration startled the market by labelling China a “currency manipulator”.  The designation is absurd, to say the least, because China doesn’t meet the US government’s own criteria for being a currency manipulator. In fact, the decision by the People’s Bank of China to let the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025617/why-trump-picked-wrong-fight-his-designation-china-currency?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3025617/why-trump-picked-wrong-fight-his-designation-china-currency?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Sep 2019 15:00:13 +0000 US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may have agreed at the G20 summit in Osaka to resume trade negotiations, but the path to ending the trade war remains far from clear. After all, the two reached a similar agreement in Buenos Aires last December and those talks ultimately failed, not least because Trump mistook China’s conciliatory attitude for weakness.  Whether Trump makes the same mistake this time remains to be seen. In any case, it is worth considering how the trade... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3017391/how-china-can-protect-itself-next-phase-donald-trumps-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3017391/how-china-can-protect-itself-next-phase-donald-trumps-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 07 Jul 2019 17:00:09 +0000 After a disappointing performance in 2018, China’s economy appears to be stabilising. In the first quarter of 2019, GDP growth, at 6.4 per cent year on year, matched that of the previous quarter. But growth in industrial production exceeded expectations, expanding by 6.5 per cent year on year (and by 8.5 per cent in March). Even exports growth was positive, albeit weak, despite the ongoing trade war with the United States. Moreover, fixed-asset investment grew by 6.3 per cent – 0.2 percentage... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3008362/analysts-divided-chinas-economic-potential-beijing-should?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3008362/analysts-divided-chinas-economic-potential-beijing-should?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 May 2019 07:30:11 +0000 China’s economic performance in 2018 was rather disappointing. According to official statistics, the country’s growth rate up to the end of the third quarter was 6.7 per cent, the lowest since the global financial crisis a decade ago. The real situation was probably even worse.  A lack of progress on institutional reform, together with obstacles to structural adjustment, has fuelled doubts among many foreign and domestic observers about China’s growth prospects. Some even anticipate a financial... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2180631/jump-start-chinas-sluggish-economy-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2180631/jump-start-chinas-sluggish-economy-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 04 Jan 2019 22:00:15 +0000 The US-China trade war, initiated early this year by US President Donald Trump’s administration, is escalating rapidly. Already, the Trump administration has imposed a 25 per cent tariff on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods and a 10 per cent tariff on goods worth another US$200 billion.   Unless the leaders of the two countries can strike a deal at this month’s G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, the situation is likely to worsen. That’s better news for China than it is for the US. Trump believes... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2171038/donald-trump-misread-us-china-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2171038/donald-trump-misread-us-china-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 31 Oct 2018 18:02:51 +0000 China’s currency has started falling again. The last major depreciation of the renminbi began in the second half of 2015, triggered by a surge in capital outflows. Despite repeated interventions by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), markets remained frenzied for more than a year. The currency’s value fell to nearly 7 yuan per US dollar, before stabilising in early 2017.  The latest decline has been even sharper. After more than a year of appreciation, the exchange rate began to weaken in the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2162006/chinas-yuan-sinks-neither-its-central-bank-nor-investors-are?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2162006/chinas-yuan-sinks-neither-its-central-bank-nor-investors-are?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 30 Aug 2018 14:00:30 +0000 No one wins in a trade war. Yet US President Donald Trump seems determined to pursue one with China, which he accuses of causing the United States’ trade deficit, violating World Trade Organisation rules and using unfair practices to acquire foreign technology. While most economists marvel at Trump’s ignorance of how trade balances work, many broadly agree with his charges regarding intellectual property (IP). But the evidence supporting these claims is also weak, at best. The so-called Section... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2152860/why-us-accusations-ip-theft-china-dont-add?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2152860/why-us-accusations-ip-theft-china-dont-add?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 28 Jun 2018 18:03:29 +0000 For the past decade or so, China’s economy has been on something of a roller-coaster ride. As 2018 begins, is the country approaching a new ascent, a steep drop, or something in between? Prior to the global economic crisis a decade ago, the Chinese economy was growing at a breakneck pace. But when the crisis hit, the growth rate fell relatively sharply. Thanks to a 4 trillion yuan (HK$4.8 trillion) stimulus package, growth soon reached its trough and began to climb again. Soon after, however,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2126614/chinas-economic-growth-will-stabilise-just-not-2018?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2126614/chinas-economic-growth-will-stabilise-just-not-2018?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Jan 2018 05:45:15 +0000 China’s economic growth has been slowing for six years – far longer than expected. Eager to stem the slide, Chinese government officials and economists have desperately sought a clear explanation pointing towards an effective policy response. And, last November, they officially placed the blame on long-term supply-side shortcomings, which they pledged to address with far-reaching structural reforms. Xi Jinping’s supply-side plan now the genuine article of economic reform for China But, although... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1954977/why-china-needs-invest-more-infrastructure-boost-growth?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1954977/why-china-needs-invest-more-infrastructure-boost-growth?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 May 2016 08:45:45 +0000 The People's Bank of China lowered the central parity rate of the renminbi by 1.9 per cent on August 11, sending shockwaves around the globe. Many foreign commentators condemned the devaluation as a blatant attempt to boost exports - a move that would, they warned, spark new currency wars. But there is good evidence that this was not China's motivation at all. In fact, China knows currency wars are self-defeating. During the 1997 Asian financial crisis, its economic situation was much worse than... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1851039/chinas-decision-devalue-renminbi-was-greatly-misunderstood?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1851039/chinas-decision-devalue-renminbi-was-greatly-misunderstood?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 20 Aug 2015 03:32:49 +0000 At a time of slowing growth and massive corporate debts, a deflationary spiral would be China's worst nightmare. And the risk is mounting. The producer price index has been in negative territory for 39 straight months. The growth of the consumer price index (CPI) has also been falling steadily, from 6.5 per cent in July 2011 to 1.2 per cent in May. If experience is any indication, it will turn negative very soon. In China's last protracted bout of deflation, from 1998 to 2002, persistent... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1829399/can-china-avoid-disastrous-deflationary-spiral?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1829399/can-china-avoid-disastrous-deflationary-spiral?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 30 Jun 2015 05:45:00 +0000 Financial repression - government policies that create an environment of low or negative real interest rates, with the goal of generating cheap financing for public spending - has long been a key feature of Chinese economic policy. But, with funding costs for businesses trending up, this is finally starting to change. Early this year, the State Council made lowering funding costs for businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, a top priority. For its part, the People's Bank of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1631758/monetary-easing-wont-be-enough-help-chinese-smes-feeling?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1631758/monetary-easing-wont-be-enough-help-chinese-smes-feeling?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 04 Nov 2014 06:00:15 +0000 The market is always in search of a story and investors, it seems, think they have found a new one this year in China. The country's growth slowdown and mounting financial risks have spurred a growing wave of pessimism, with economists worldwide warning of an impending crash. But dire predictions for China have abounded for the past 30 years, and not one has materialised. Are today's really so different? The short answer is no. Like the predictions of the past, today's warnings are based on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1483880/rumours-chinese-crash-are-greatly-exaggerated?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1483880/rumours-chinese-crash-are-greatly-exaggerated?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Apr 2014 09:15:00 +0000 China's economy slowed unexpectedly in the second quarter of this year. Just as unexpectedly, most data released since July suggests that China's growth has stabilised. Markets, not surprisingly, have breathed a collective sigh of relief. But should investors still be nervous? Currently, the most severe problem confronting Chinese authorities is over-capacity. For example, China's annual production capacity for crude steel is close to one billion tonnes, but its total output in 2012 was 717... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1328691/can-china-wean-itself-its-addiction-investment?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1328691/can-china-wean-itself-its-addiction-investment?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 10 Oct 2013 16:00:00 +0000 China's economic-growth rate slowed in the second quarter of this year to 7.5 per cent year on year, down from 7.7 per cent in the January-March period, in line with Chinese economists' forecasts in recent months. At the start of 2013, however, economists - both at home and abroad - were much more upbeat about the prospects for growth. So, what changed? China's growth has shown a cyclical pattern over the past two decades. Immediately after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1294241/chinas-fear-inflation-puts-brakes-growth?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1294241/chinas-fear-inflation-puts-brakes-growth?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 04 Aug 2013 16:00:00 +0000