https://www.scmp.com/rss/311932/feed Patrick Low is a fellow, Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Just under two weeks ago, an important new deal was struck under the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone layer. This is not as remote or unimportant as it might sound. It stands as a rare example of how governments can work together on issues that are manageable only with international cooperation. The Montreal Protocol has been characterised by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan as “perhaps the most successful international agreement to date.” Among other things, this... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2040177/why-montreal-protocol-most-successful-climate-agreement-ever?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2040177/why-montreal-protocol-most-successful-climate-agreement-ever?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 26 Oct 2016 03:01:48 +0000 Two weeks ago this column discussed the merits of “hard” and “soft” Brexit solutions to the UK’s departure from the EU. Since then, the dye has been cast, taking many by surprise and provoking some harsh reactions. At the Conservative Party’s annual conference in early October, Prime Minister Theresa May made it clear that hard Brexit is the order of the day. Britain will limit immigration of EU citizens, release itself from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice and the reach of... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2027369/britains-decision-go-hard-brexit-promises-rough-ride-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2027369/britains-decision-go-hard-brexit-promises-rough-ride-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 12 Oct 2016 05:52:26 +0000 Almost two months ago this column discussed trade options for the UK outside the EU. A major point was that the outcomes would depend on a lot more than technical common sense. The British position has become no clearer since, but there has been some muddying of the politics. Grandstanding is bad politics. A good result calls for a cooperative and constructive atmosphere that seeks out mutual gain. This is hardly an earth-shattering observation. Yet the British Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson,... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2023286/public-posturing-contested-positions-carries-needless-cost?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2023286/public-posturing-contested-positions-carries-needless-cost?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 28 Sep 2016 05:47:35 +0000 The eleventh G20 summit, held in Hangzhou on September 4 to 5, brought China’s 2016 presidency to an end. The over-arching target for this year’s G20 was support for “an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive world economy”. Nothing to argue with there. But prevailing circumstances do not exactly smile upon the attainment of these objectives. Trade and investment continue to languish, reflecting low average GDP growth performance globally. Productivity growth seems to have taken... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2019245/three-fixes-can-save-g20-becoming-just-meeting-place-leaders?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2019245/three-fixes-can-save-g20-becoming-just-meeting-place-leaders?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 14 Sep 2016 02:52:04 +0000 In managing transactions within and among nations, providing services, and supplying information, the digital economy has become a powerful enabler of economic activity. Its contribution to growth and productivity is considerable and continues to expand. The technological revolution underlying this virtual world also offers new access and integration opportunities to otherwise excluded communities. Harnessing the benefits of digitisation requires intergovernmental cooperation. Following its... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2011576/wto-must-ensure-benefits-digital-economy-are-available-every-business?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2011576/wto-must-ensure-benefits-digital-economy-are-available-every-business?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 31 Aug 2016 01:53:13 +0000 The trade ministers of G20 countries met in Shanghai last month to pursue longstanding discussions on what they should say to each other and the rest of the world about policy towards international trade and investment. The immediate objective was to forge a communique that heads of state and government would use as input for the summit declaration marking the end of China’s G20 presidency. That meeting will be in Hangzhou in less than three weeks from now. A notable feature of the G20’s... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2005143/g20-needs-deeds-not-mere-words-link-trade-and-investment?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/2005143/g20-needs-deeds-not-mere-words-link-trade-and-investment?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 17 Aug 2016 07:47:15 +0000 When a majority of British voters opted on June 23rd to have less to do with foreigners, they ushered in a prolonged and costly period of economic and political uncertainty. Like most divorces, the degree of difficulty Brexit encounters will be determined to a large degree by how much goodwill parties bring to, and generate at, the table. Revamping trade policy is a large component of the extrication process. Currently, the UK is part of a customs union and single market inside the European... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1998551/no-margin-error-uk-sets-about-sealing-new-trade-agreements?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1998551/no-margin-error-uk-sets-about-sealing-new-trade-agreements?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Aug 2016 03:37:50 +0000 Last week’s Global Trade Alert report recorded growing levels of protection and stagnant trade in the world economy – the worst record since monitoring began in 2008. The GTA, run by Professor Simon Evenett of St. Gallen University in Switzerland, systematically reports on the incidence of trade measures. This is the largest private initiative that keeps an eye on trade and other trade-impacting policies across a broad spectrum of nations. The World Trade Organization, along with the... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1992261/rising-protectionism-threatens-global-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1992261/rising-protectionism-threatens-global-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Jul 2016 07:08:42 +0000 As market gyrations in the aftermath of the Brexit vote quieten somewhat, political and social turmoil in the UK shows no sign of abating. The bitter and often dishonest UK referendum campaign has further debased already low standards of public discourse. Politicians are not held accountable for what they say. They can lie and distort reality with seeming impunity. They can switch positions once in power as if this were to be expected. They can cynically exploit legitimate popular discontent,... https://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1986022/now-difficult-part-keeping-brexit-negotiation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/money/markets-investing/article/1986022/now-difficult-part-keeping-brexit-negotiation?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Jul 2016 02:00:45 +0000 On June 5, Swiss voters were asked in a referendum whether to introduce a universal basic income for all Swiss. The proposal, backed by more than 100,000 people – a prerequisite for Switzerland’s popular initiative system – was roundly defeated by the electorate, with 77 per cent voting against. Swiss say ‘no thanks’ to unconditional basic income for all Under the proposal, every adult would have received a guaranteed and unconditional income. This might have been the first time the idea of... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1979247/guaranteed-income-everyone-big-idea-deserving-careful-debate?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1979247/guaranteed-income-everyone-big-idea-deserving-careful-debate?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 Jun 2016 07:12:24 +0000 Prominent economists from the International Monetary Fund have raised eyebrows recently by questioning the virtues of neoliberalism. An article in the Fund’s quarterly magazine entitled “Neoliberalism: Oversold?” was a source of surprise for two reasons. First, it questions aspects of long-established policy orthodoxy. Second, neoliberalism is usually deployed as an epithet by those who decry IMF policy prescriptions as destructive and unjust. The use of the word is deliberately... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1969127/economists-are-struggling-classic-problem-lies-heart-imf-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1969127/economists-are-struggling-classic-problem-lies-heart-imf-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 08 Jun 2016 03:47:33 +0000 China and its major trading partners are embroiled in an impending stand-off that could undermine trust and sour international commerce in ways we have not seen since the country joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) 15 years ago. The problem arises from the terms of China’s membership of the organisation agreed in 2001. China’s protocol of accession contained a number of sui generis provisions, one of which concerned procedures for anti-dumping actions. Anti-dumping rules allow governments... https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1953752/dumping-heart-chinese-trade-stand?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/1953752/dumping-heart-chinese-trade-stand?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 May 2016 02:42:38 +0000 Ten weeks ago this column discussed the upcoming referendum on Britain’s exit from the European Union. The Brexit debate has moved on since then. It has become a lot nastier, the rhetoric sharper and angrier. The fateful decision is now only six weeks away. Opinion polls suggest the vote could go either way. Three issues that dominate the battleground are the economic consequences of Brexit, immigration, and the excesses of EU regulation. Inevitably, the focus is parochial and inward-looking for... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1943485/brexit-question-down-wire-and-things-are-getting-nasty?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1943485/brexit-question-down-wire-and-things-are-getting-nasty?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 May 2016 01:56:26 +0000 The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is in the news again, as the thirteenth round of negotiations takes place in New York. Such periodic encounters have been taking place for eight years now. The TTIP would bind the United States and the European Union in a far-reaching trade and investment agreement, with the deal counting as one of those so-called “mega-regionals” – very large preferential arrangements involving practically all of the world’s mightiest economies. The TTIP... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1938940/why-have-governments-shied-away-defending-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1938940/why-have-governments-shied-away-defending-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 27 Apr 2016 00:41:15 +0000 A World Trade Organisation report last week on trade performance in 2015 and on the prospects for this year painted a glum picture compared to the years before the 2008 financial crisis. Global trade expanded by 2.8 per cent last year, with identical growth predicted for 2016. That would make it the sixth consecutive year in which exports have grown by less than 3 per cent – about the same rate as the annual increase in global gross domestic product over the same period. In the pre-crisis years... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1935659/lets-hope-world-trade-lull-just-snooze?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1935659/lets-hope-world-trade-lull-just-snooze?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 13 Apr 2016 04:03:10 +0000 Patrick Low Patrick Low Two weeks ago this column compared the economic and social plight of millennials with the accumulated privileges amassed by baby boomers. Many millennials are saddled with high college debts, poor and unstable job prospects, impossible housing prices, little opportunity to save, and plenty of reason to feel disaffected. Such circumstances are starkly different from those enjoyed by many baby boomers throughout their careers, and increasingly today as pensioners. Causal links join these two... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1931677/why-millennials-rich-societies-face-bleaker-prospects-those?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1931677/why-millennials-rich-societies-face-bleaker-prospects-those?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 30 Mar 2016 06:01:02 +0000 Major news outlets, inter-governmental agencies and scholars are drawing more attention to a threatening inter-generational injustice. Baby boomers are luxuriating in business class or above, while millennials are fighting for scarce seats at the back. Baby boomers are defined as those born between 1946 and 1964. The X Generation came into the world between 1965 and 1979, and the Y Generation – the millennials – between 1980 and the mid-nineties. These intervals vary a little among analyses, but... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1925717/why-hong-kongs-youth-can-no-longer-expect-be-richer-their?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1925717/why-hong-kongs-youth-can-no-longer-expect-be-richer-their?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Mar 2016 02:33:12 +0000 As the June date for a British referendum on withdrawing from the EU approaches, truth will increasingly be about what people can be persuaded to believe. Passion and innate preferences will supplant reasoned debate. Nobody can possibly know how things will play out if Britain exits. Choosing departure from the EU over a less than perfect status quo is risky. Risk-taking can be associated with great rewards, but the sheer folly of taking some risks courts disaster. Britain leaving the EU may be... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1919625/common-sense-not-nostalgic-yearning-should-be-heart-britains-eu-departure?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1919625/common-sense-not-nostalgic-yearning-should-be-heart-britains-eu-departure?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 02 Mar 2016 03:54:53 +0000 Last month the World Bank released its flagship World Development Report entitled “Digital Dividends”. The report is appealing because it does more than simply celebrate all the ways that digital technology has made the world a better place. It also laments and warns against outcomes where the digital economy becomes divisive and exclusionary. Unlike Professor Pangloss in Voltaire’s Candide, the World Bank does not believe that all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds. While few... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1913709/digital-economy-blessing-and-threat?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1913709/digital-economy-blessing-and-threat?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 17 Feb 2016 07:23:55 +0000 Growing inequality and an accompanying sense of unjust exclusion is attracting mounting attention. Occupy Wall Street might have seemed impotent and directionless. However inchoate the protest, it signalled growing resentment over perceived injustices bred by today’s economic order. Closer to home, how much of the emotional and political undergrowth of Occupy Central turned on fears of a bleak economic future for all but the most privileged? Further evidence of disquiet comes from popular... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1908779/rising-inequality-erodes-growth-not-just-social-cohesion?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1908779/rising-inequality-erodes-growth-not-just-social-cohesion?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Feb 2016 00:10:31 +0000 This column has argued on several occasions that multilateral negotiations on trade, climate change and other global issues can only succeed when China and the United States are on the same side. At the very least their differences must be sufficiently similar to permit mutually compatible outcomes. The need for US-China alignment is dictated by the sheer economic size of the two parties relative to the rest of the world. But preferential deals are in a different class. Initiatives such as the... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1903315/us-china-trade-spats-cloud-prospects-progress?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1903315/us-china-trade-spats-cloud-prospects-progress?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Jan 2016 00:18:09 +0000 The Asean Economic Community (AEC) was born on New Year’s Day, but the full realisation of the AEC vision laid out in 2007 will take more time still. The birth of the AEC met with wide acclaim in some circles and was assigned damp squib status by others. The Asean conception of what regional integration means is far-reaching. But that does not mean it is overreaching. The role of naysayer is easy when ambition is high. It is as well to remind ourselves how far Southeast Asia has come since 1967,... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1898017/asean-economic-community-faces-numerous-challenges?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1898017/asean-economic-community-faces-numerous-challenges?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Jan 2016 02:01:28 +0000 Following its 10th Ministerial conference last week in Nairobi – seen by many as a make or break event – the World Trade Organization lives to fight another day. Some would say its demise was never in prospect because institutions rarely die. But we are talking here about effectiveness, not mere existence. The failure of the world’s premier trade organisation to complete the Doha Round of trade negotiations it launched almost a decade and a half ago has raised doubts about its capacity to... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1894061/wto-fighting-battle-against-irrelevance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1894061/wto-fighting-battle-against-irrelevance?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 23 Dec 2015 04:11:48 +0000 The World Trade Organisation will hold the 10th ministerial conference of its 20-year existence next week . It is a crucial meeting. The WTO has spent the past decade and a half trying to finish what it started in 2001 – the launch of the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations. The Doha Round was a comprehensive package. A breathtakingly ambitious – or simply unrealistic – deadline of a little over three years was set for the negotiations. It was heavy on trade liberalisation in... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1888879/world-trade-organisation-faces-moment-reckoning-nairobi?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1888879/world-trade-organisation-faces-moment-reckoning-nairobi?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 09 Dec 2015 02:57:53 +0000 Climate change politics will take centre stage next week in Paris. The largest ever gathering devoted to fixing the climate will strive for what has proven elusive for more than two decades – a comprehensive, fair and effective deal that will set us on a path to fix global warming. The summit starting next Monday is the 21st meeting of the Committee of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Some 50,000 participants will attend. Of all the international... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1883086/progress-climate-change-beckons-paris?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1883086/progress-climate-change-beckons-paris?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 Nov 2015 00:36:37 +0000 Last week the dozen parties to the recently concluded Trans-Pacific Partnership released the full text of their agreement – more than 30 days after it was announced. The delay did not help the protagonists of a deal already encountering strong headwinds from multiple sources, especially in the United States. The secrecy surrounding the negotiations has not helped either. The main text of the TPP (signed by the United States, Canada, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Japan, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1877741/uncertainty-over-ratifying-trans-pacific-trade-deal?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1877741/uncertainty-over-ratifying-trans-pacific-trade-deal?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Nov 2015 03:30:30 +0000 A couple of weeks ago the Geneva-based International Trade Centre launched a new annual flagship report. The ITC is a subsidiary of the World Trade Organization and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and was established in the 1960s with a mandate to promote trade. The ITC is one of the very few agencies connected to the United Nations family that talks directly to business. That alone gives it particular value in a context where its parent organisations and many other... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1873136/new-research-focuses-why-growth-tends-elude-small-and-medium-sized?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1873136/new-research-focuses-why-growth-tends-elude-small-and-medium-sized?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 28 Oct 2015 00:41:36 +0000 At a United Nations Summit just over two weeks ago, governments adopted the Sustainable Development Goals to replace the Millennium Development Goals that were set for 2015. The goals reflect a perception of the most pressing contemporary social, political, and economic problems facing the world. They seek to create awareness and a sense of common purpose to galvanise action. Specific goals are linked to measurable performance indicators. The MDGs have received mixed reviews. They encompassed 8... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1867398/putting-place-sustainable-development-goals-un?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1867398/putting-place-sustainable-development-goals-un?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 13 Oct 2015 23:45:30 +0000 In May 2000, the Economist magazine featured Africa on its front cover, characterising it as the ‘hopeless continent’ that owed a greater part of its misfortune to acts of man rather than acts of God. A little over a decade later, in December 2011, the front cover of the magazine featured Africa once again, with the words ‘Africa rising’ and the statement that Africa had a real chance of following in the footsteps of Asia. The contrast could hardly be starker. Africa’s turnaround is surely one... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1862688/africa-ascendant-although-problems-linger?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1862688/africa-ascendant-although-problems-linger?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 30 Sep 2015 07:06:23 +0000 Back in March this column discussed the shortcomings of GDP as a metric for judging the well-being of citizens and how their national economies are performing. GDP estimates economic activity or people’s income over a given time span. It says very little about the quality of life, the environment, health, life expectancy or social stability. It does not tell us whether resources are being used sustainably. In short, reliance on GDP as a metric for progress emphasises quantity over quality and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1858637/measuring-countrys-worth-beyond-gdp?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1858637/measuring-countrys-worth-beyond-gdp?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Sep 2015 01:30:15 +0000 Two months ago a dentist from Minnesota, Walter Palmer, bagged a lion called Cecil in Zimbabwe. Cecil’s demise caused an extraordinary public outcry. Thousands of tweets and facebook postings, and dozens of press commentaries, condemned the lion’s death in the strongest terms. The hunter truly became the hunted. Halloween costumes have appeared depicting Cecil as the victim or Cecil taking revenge. The memorabilia industry is flourishing. Petitions attracting hundreds of thousands of signatures... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1854634/trophy-hunting-and-eco-tourism-both-needed-save-wildlife?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1854634/trophy-hunting-and-eco-tourism-both-needed-save-wildlife?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 02 Sep 2015 02:03:54 +0000 In early August President Barack Obama surprised his supporters and enraged the opposition by announcing tougher benchmarks for reducing greenhouse gases from electricity generation plants. The Clean Power Plan directs states to cut emissions by about one-third from 2005 levels by 2030. Instant push-back from fossil fuel interests was predictable. So too was the hostile reaction from denizens of the political right, a number of whom have declared any suggestion of human responsibility for... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1850730/fighting-global-warming-hamstrung-under-investment-rd?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1850730/fighting-global-warming-hamstrung-under-investment-rd?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 19 Aug 2015 02:30:15 +0000 For those who see hope in the shiny lining of dark clouds, inconclusive preferential trade negotiations could offer the World Trade Organization new opportunities. Without wishing ill on international agreements that promise benefits despite their discriminatory downside, the difficulties facing preferential deals – especially the multi-country ones – are not so different from those confronting the WTO. And with its objective of inclusiveness and basis in non-discrimination, the WTO is the high... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1846669/trans-pacific-trade-talks-teeter-headwinds-get-stronger?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1846669/trans-pacific-trade-talks-teeter-headwinds-get-stronger?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Aug 2015 02:11:31 +0000 Unless something goes badly wrong, a subset of World Trade Organisation signatories will seal an important tariff reduction agreement on Friday. The deal strips tariffs down to zero on some 200 hi-tech products, adding to and updating the 1997 Information Technology Agreement. This is only the second successful tariff-cutting outcome in the WTO’s 20-year history, the first being the original ITA. The ITA-II result is an important institutional landmark, given the deadlock that has characterised... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1842746/why-wto-hi-tech-tariff-deal-sign-hope-deadlocked-doha-round?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1842746/why-wto-hi-tech-tariff-deal-sign-hope-deadlocked-doha-round?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 Jul 2015 04:30:45 +0000 The 10 nations of the Association of Southeast Nations (Asean) have more than 600 million consumers and collectively have grown faster in the 21st century than any other Asian economy except China.  Its members are negotiating the establishment of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) to replace the old Asean arrangements by the end of 2015. The AEC aims to attain free flow of goods, services, investment, skilled labour and the freer flow of capital. The project is as ambitious as the European... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1834435/asean-deal-services-can-be-hamstrung-national-rules?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1834435/asean-deal-services-can-be-hamstrung-national-rules?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 08 Jul 2015 03:00:00 +0000 Baffling procedural manoeuvres in the US Congress over the last weeks have put trade politics back on the front pages. The immediate issue was whether President Barack Obama had the authority to complete negotiations with 11 other countries in the Americas and Asia on the TPP – the much touted Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. Without the grant of so-called Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) by Congress, US negotiators would not have been able to make the final push to close the deal. Not... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1825531/obamas-long-and-winding-road-trade-victory?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1825531/obamas-long-and-winding-road-trade-victory?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Jun 2015 06:55:42 +0000 Climate change politics are in the news again. The G7 Summit Declaration emerging from Bavaria earlier this week signaled once more purposeful intent to address climate change. This affirmation of “strong determination” from the world’s leading industrial economies comes six months away from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting scheduled for Paris in December. Many regard the Paris gathering as crucial in addressing what President Barack Obama has called the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1819518/no-need-wait-governments-fighting-stop-climate-change?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1819518/no-need-wait-governments-fighting-stop-climate-change?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 10 Jun 2015 02:47:13 +0000 World employment has not recovered following the 2008/9 Great Recession. Today, over 200 million are unemployed worldwide, up by 30 million from the 2008 level. That estimate more than doubles when the count includes those who have dropped out of the job market. According to the main findings of the International Labour Organization’s World Employment and Social Outlook report issued last week, it is against this background that global job markets have undergone a dramatic transformation. The... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1808973/stability-no-longer-norm-world-job-market-recession?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1808973/stability-no-longer-norm-world-job-market-recession?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 26 May 2015 05:39:23 +0000 A big idea is often greater than the sum of its parts. Encompassing visions can replace inertia with action. That is the hope behind the boldness of China’s economic silk roads. At least two other recent silk-road dreams appear to have fallen by the wayside. Turkey formulated a silk-road project in 2008 to integrate Eurasia. The United States rolled out its New Silk Project in 2011 to link Afghanistan with five Central Asian republics – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1794891/chinas-silk-road-initiative-needs-adept-moves-investment-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1794891/chinas-silk-road-initiative-needs-adept-moves-investment-and?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 13 May 2015 01:58:07 +0000 The last time this column appeared it made the case for establishing a global investment agreement. The history of such efforts is rich and worth revisiting for its contemporary relevance. The first post-war attempt to internationalise investment rules was made in the context of the Bretton Woods architecture in the late 1940s. The charter of the International Trade Organisation (ITO) – known as the Havana Charter – contained rules on foreign investment. The United States and others wanted... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1780065/history-can-help-foreign-investors-and-host-nations-find?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1780065/history-can-help-foreign-investors-and-host-nations-find?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 29 Apr 2015 06:30:45 +0000 Just as trade has joined dozens of economies closer together in recent years, burgeoning foreign direct investment (FDI) is contributing an even more powerful global imprint. In terms of international transactions, FDI is more important than trade. While annual global exports of goods and services are in the region of US$24 trillion a year, sales of foreign affiliates of multinational corporations (MNCs) come in at some US$30 trillion. And about one-third of international trade flows are... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1766856/high-time-global-investment-agreement?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1766856/high-time-global-investment-agreement?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Apr 2015 04:00:00 +0000 For many years we have been used to thinking about trade as a leading driver of dynamism in the world economy. Trade growth outstripped production growth by a factor of three at the turn of the century. No more it seems. The gap is much narrower today. The IMF has estimated that trade growth was actually lower than production growth in 2012 and 2013. World Bank data for those years, however, shows a slightly better performance for trade than gross domestic production. Global GDP grew at an... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1753455/world-wants-growth-shouldnt-give-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1753455/world-wants-growth-shouldnt-give-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 Apr 2015 05:20:54 +0000 The season of economic prediction is upon us. Governments, international institutions and pundits of many stripes preen themselves, posture, or prevaricate as they explain last year’s gross domestic product forecasts against reported results, and chance their arms for the coming year. Because statistics are often politics, the GDP stakes are high. The number has taken on a status and portent it does not deserve. On the altar of a single figure, people are invited to judge their state of being,... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1740777/more-honesty-and-less-politics-needed-gdp?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1740777/more-honesty-and-less-politics-needed-gdp?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 18 Mar 2015 00:35:45 +0000 In a landmark report released on the day before Christmas Eve last year, the mainland revised down its 2012 exports from US$2.2 trillion to US$1.4 trillion. Expressed as a share of gross domestic product, that is a drop from 27 per cent to 17 per cent. Despite the timing of the Ministry of Commerce data release, this would have made global headlines if it were the result of a disastrous and career-terminating blunder by hapless statisticians for whom numbers are only what you can get people to... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1729096/traditional-trade-figures-understate-importance-services?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1729096/traditional-trade-figures-understate-importance-services?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 04 Mar 2015 01:00:30 +0000 Should private investors be permitted to sue host governments in international courts? For negotiators, this is no arcane question. It is affecting the wider search for rules on international trade and investment. Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) mechanisms bypass local courts in favour of international tribunals to settle investment disputes. The mechanism has been a feature of international investment agreements since the late 1950s. More than 3,000 bilateral investment treaties (BITs)... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1701531/should-investors-be-able-choose-where-sue-governments?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1701531/should-investors-be-able-choose-where-sue-governments?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 04 Feb 2015 06:22:32 +0000 Many would be tempted to say that the World Trade Organisation can only mark, not celebrate, its 20th anniversary this year. Shot negotiating deadlines, dashed hopes and endless reiterations of entrenched positions have punctuated the WTO’s two decades of existence with a tedium that has tried even the institution’s strongest supporters. A succession of anni horribiles has pundits wondering “if” the WTO’s multilateral goals can be reached, rather than “when”. Yet no government, or serious... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1688348/turning-20-marks-time-wto-grow?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1688348/turning-20-marks-time-wto-grow?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 Jan 2015 07:30:45 +0000 The recent agreement between China and the United States on action to combat global warming has changed the face of global climate change politics. The bilateral deal announced on the margins of the Beijing Apec summit in November last year set the tone for greater progress than might have been expected at last month's inter-governmental meeting in Lima, Peru, aimed at forging a new international agreement on curbing man-made climate change. The Lima meeting was always going to be a crucial... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1676735/china-us-deal-first-hesitant-step-battle-against-climate?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1676735/china-us-deal-first-hesitant-step-battle-against-climate?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 07 Jan 2015 23:36:21 +0000 Discussions of global economic and political affairs are usually premised on the assumption that the bilateral relationship between China and the United States is the most important one in the world. The annual conference of the Hong Kong-based China-United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF) hosted a high-powered panel last week to discuss what that means for those countries and the rest of the world. The debate was billed as an economic discussion, but the exchanges inevitably zeroed in on... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1660197/china-and-us-need-reach-positive-sum-outcomes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/1660197/china-and-us-need-reach-positive-sum-outcomes?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 11 Dec 2014 01:07:16 +0000 Discussions of global economic and political affairs are usually premised on the assumption that the bilateral relationship between China and the United States is the most important one in the world. The annual conference of the Hong Kong-based China-United States Exchange Foundation (CUSEF) hosted a high-powered panel last week to discuss what that means for those countries and the rest of the world. The debate was billed as an economic discussion, but the exchanges inevitably zeroed in on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1659285/china-and-us-need-reach-positive-sum-outcomes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1659285/china-and-us-need-reach-positive-sum-outcomes?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 10 Dec 2014 01:44:41 +0000 Protectionism is on the rise, according to two policy-monitoring reports on Group of 20 countries released just before the recent Brisbane summit. One is by the Global Trade Alert and another by the World Trade Organisation. The trade alert is an independent initiative of the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the brainchild of Professor Simon Evenett of St Gallen University in Switzerland. The latest trade alert assessment carries the alarming title of "The Global Trade Disorder". The... https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1649468/spectre-trade-protectionism-rise?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/global-economy/article/1649468/spectre-trade-protectionism-rise?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 26 Nov 2014 22:17:23 +0000