https://www.scmp.com/rss/318747/feed Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In March 2024, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since 2007, lifting borrowing costs out of negative territory and calling time on decades of ultra-loose monetary policy as Japan emerged from a long period of entrenched deflation. At the time, inflation had been above the central bank’s 2 per cent target for 22 months. Fast forward to today, and inflationary pressures continue to build. Although headline inflation fell to 1.3 per cent in February, this was because of the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351088/why-japans-central-bank-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3351088/why-japans-central-bank-caught-between-rock-and-hard-place?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 23 Apr 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley East Asia’s “economic miracle” in the post-World War II period was predicated upon a number of factors, such as the region’s export-led growth model, but critically it also depended on an assured supply of capital to finance business investment. One source of such finance was bank loans, the supply and direction of which can be officially influenced by various means rather than being chiefly market-determined. Even today, bank loans account for most of the business financing in Japan, the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3350329/why-japans-bond-moves-could-see-shift-east-asias-financing-model?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3350329/why-japans-bond-moves-could-see-shift-east-asias-financing-model?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 18 Apr 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro At first glance, the rupee is staging a recovery. India’s battered currency has gained around 1.5 per cent since March 27, making it the best-performing currency in Asia, according to Bloomberg data. However, the recent bounce belies vulnerabilities in India’s economy that have been exacerbated by the energy shock emanating from the war in Iran. India is one of the most exposed among Asia’s leading economies, importing 90 per cent of its oil and more than half its liquefied petroleum gas.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3350249/bullish-narrative-around-indias-economy-odds-struggling-rupee?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3350249/bullish-narrative-around-indias-economy-odds-struggling-rupee?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 Apr 2026 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Are Chinese government bonds a refuge from global economic turmoil? That the financial markets of a country which has struggled to fully shed the “uninvestable” label are being touted by a growing number of investors and analysts as a safe harbour attests to the dramatic shift in perceptions of China since the beginning of last year. Although the “uninvestable” tag applied to Chinese equities, which suffered a prolonged spell of extreme bearishness from 2021 to 2023, the government bond market... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3349453/why-investors-should-beware-china-safe-haven-narrative-amid-iran-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3349453/why-investors-should-beware-china-safe-haven-narrative-amid-iran-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 09 Apr 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Last month, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, experienced its largest monthly rise since the launch of the futures contract in 1988 as the war in Iran caused an unprecedented disruption to global energy flows. Brent surged 63 per cent to US$118 per barrel, exceeding the previous record increase in September 1990 following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. The price shock has been even more dramatic in refined products. Jet fuel costs have more than doubled since the war began, with diesel... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3348744/asian-central-banks-largely-powerless-face-iran-war-energy-shock?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3348744/asian-central-banks-largely-powerless-face-iran-war-energy-shock?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For the second year in a row, Asia’s vulnerability to global shocks is a source of concern. Almost exactly a year since US President Donald Trump launched his assault on the global trading system, the external dependencies of leading Asian economies have once again dimmed the outlook for the region. Early last year, analysts were worried about Asia’s heavy reliance on exports to the United States. Morgan Stanley pointed out that seven of the 10 countries running the largest trade surpluses with... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3347935/iran-war-why-trump-climbdown-wont-save-asias-economies?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3347935/iran-war-why-trump-climbdown-wont-save-asias-economies?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley War in the Middle East is again producing an oil shock, as was the case in past years. For the chief perpetrator of the new shock – the United States – this will be a multi-front war where the financial impact could hit the country harder than import price shocks. The US is a debtor nation on a grand scale, running as it does both current account and budget deficits and therefore being highly dependent upon foreign capital inflows. Will the Trump administration’s antics – widely perceived as... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346308/waging-war-iran-trump-leaves-us-economy-more-vulnerable?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346308/waging-war-iran-trump-leaves-us-economy-more-vulnerable?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 14 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For a moment on March 9, it seemed like global investors were starting to get to grips with the scale and severity of the economic fallout from the rapidly escalating war in Iran. At one point, Brent crude, the global benchmark, surged to nearly US$120 a barrel, double the level it was trading at in early January. Yet no sooner did US President Donald Trump try to allay fears in markets by announcing that the war would be over “very soon” than prices fell back to below US$90. Since then, they... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346299/iran-war-disruption-just-one-many-threats-global-markets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346299/iran-war-disruption-just-one-many-threats-global-markets?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley If financial markets can survive the United States’ war on Iran and Russia’s war against Ukraine, does this mean that financial crashes have become a thing of the past? Or have markets just not grasped the true nature of the current threats to the financial system? The latter is almost certainly the case, as former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein suggested when he said in a recent Financial Times interview that people had “got more complacent” about financial risks since the 2008 crisis. It is... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345580/cause-next-global-market-crash-hiding-plain-sight?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345580/cause-next-global-market-crash-hiding-plain-sight?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 07 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For sheer escalatory potential, look no further than the speed at which the six-day-old war in Iran has drawn in countries across the Middle East, causing the biggest energy shock since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While the long-term consequences of military action by the United States and Israel against Iran are unpredictable, worst-case scenarios for the global economy and markets have begun to unfold. Although the least important thing about any war is how it affects... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345515/iran-war-shows-markets-cant-ignore-every-geopolitical-shock?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3345515/iran-war-shows-markets-cant-ignore-every-geopolitical-shock?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Mar 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s scheduled summit next month with US President Donald Trump, the message from Tokyo appears to be that the US Supreme Court decision to invalidate Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs will not affect Japan’s promised capital investment projects in the United States. That could prove a costly misstep for Japan. With the Supreme Court invalidating the legal basis for Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, countries that have concluded trade agreements with the US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3344733/why-japan-should-push-back-trumps-investment-demands?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3344733/why-japan-should-push-back-trumps-investment-demands?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 28 Feb 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro It is one of the oldest sayings on Wall Street, yet the adage “markets hate uncertainty” has never stood up to scrutiny. Like most maxims, it has a ring of truth but is a gross oversimplification. What is indisputable, however, is that for several decades investors took major economic, financial and political trends for granted. For a long period beginning in the 1980s, the world was relatively predictable. Many economists dubbed this era “the great moderation”. Others pointed to the impact of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344685/trumps-normalisation-market-chaos-can-only-go-so-far?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344685/trumps-normalisation-market-chaos-can-only-go-so-far?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 Feb 2026 10:45:14 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is at last showing a bit of spirit. While it might not yet be attacking the egregious economic and financial antics of US President Donald Trump, it is at least turning its attention to the fiscal foibles of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. This matters more now than has been the case in recent years, or even decades, because what Japan does in terms of its fiscal and monetary policy is beginning to have international repercussions. What political... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3344046/why-imf-right-press-japan-its-fiscal-risks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3344046/why-imf-right-press-japan-its-fiscal-risks?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 21 Feb 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro The US dollar’s decline is not over yet. Having fallen 10 per cent last year, the dollar index – a gauge of the US dollar’s performance against a basket of other major currencies – is down a further 0.6 per cent this year in the face of relatively high US interest rates, a resilient economy and the dominance of American technology companies. The findings of a Bank of America survey on February 13 showed that fund managers’ exposure to the US dollar had dropped below last April’s low, when US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3343966/us-dollar-weakness-no-game-changer-globalised-yuan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3343966/us-dollar-weakness-no-game-changer-globalised-yuan?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 19 Feb 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Is rivalry among international financial centres – such as that which has traditionally existed between Hong Kong and Singapore – becoming outdated at a time of changing global dynamics in the economic and political spheres as countries develop their own financial capabilities and rely more on domestic rather than offshore financing? Will the rapid advance of artificial intelligence (AI) into finance mean countries that do not have dedicated financial centres will not need to rely so heavily on... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3343420/how-robust-domestic-financial-markets-could-ease-era-ai-uncertainty?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3343420/how-robust-domestic-financial-markets-could-ease-era-ai-uncertainty?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 14 Feb 2026 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For many decades, Australia was known as the “lucky country”. Its long period of uninterrupted growth stretching back to the 1990s was a rarity among advanced economies. Yet even before the Covid-19 pandemic erupted, Australia’s luck was running out amid stagnant productivity, a housing affordability crisis and the slowdown in China’s economy. Another developed country that has had luck on its side is Japan. Having endured more than three “lost decades” in a prolonged struggle against deflation,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3343260/japan-will-soon-learn-how-far-takaichi-can-ride-her-luck?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3343260/japan-will-soon-learn-how-far-takaichi-can-ride-her-luck?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Feb 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley When the world’s leading central banks rode to the rescue during the global financial crisis in 2008, they were hailed as knights in shining armour intent upon slaying the twin dragons of economic recession and deflation. Now it seems the knights are no more, to quote an old English hymn, and yet the dragons are not dead. US President Donald Trump’s nominee to head the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, has expressed doubts over whether the Fed acted wisely when it became the biggest buyer of US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3342516/trump-takaichi-meddling-finance-spells-more-turbulence-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3342516/trump-takaichi-meddling-finance-spells-more-turbulence-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 07 Feb 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For some of the most dramatic swings in financial markets in recent memory, look no further than the plunge in the price of silver on January 30. The precious metal suffered its largest one-day fall since March 1980, losing a staggering 27 per cent. Gold, silver’s more illustrious cousin, also experienced its steepest one-day decline since early 1980, dropping 9 per cent. The ferocity of the sell-off was matched only by the intensity of the surge in the precious metal markets in the past few... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3342464/why-trump-not-asian-investors-blame-gold-and-silver-volatility?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3342464/why-trump-not-asian-investors-blame-gold-and-silver-volatility?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Feb 2026 08:30:37 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Compared with the turmoil threatened by US President Donald Trump’s actions in everything from geopolitics to trade, the outcome of Japan’s parliamentary lower house election, set for February 8, may seem like small beer. Yet it could presage a great upheaval in global finance. The election outcome is widely expected to strengthen the political power base of the fiscally expansionist Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, and increase borrowing when government debt almost everywhere is already... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3341741/how-one-election-japan-could-upend-bond-markets-and-global-finance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3341741/how-one-election-japan-could-upend-bond-markets-and-global-finance?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 31 Jan 2026 08:30:07 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Some weighty themes were addressed at the World Economic Forum in Davos, from the apparent return of the Monroe Doctrine and US “manifest destiny” in geopolitics, to a replay of the 19th-century “Great Game” among competing nations elsewhere. But one critical issue that did not receive sufficient attention was the prospect of a global financial system crisis undermining such monumental assumptions. These annual gatherings of the supposedly great and good, from national leaders to business barons... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3340902/distracted-davos-leaders-are-ignoring-one-critical-issue?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3340902/distracted-davos-leaders-are-ignoring-one-critical-issue?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 24 Jan 2026 08:30:12 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Amid the rising chorus of criticism of US President Donald Trump and his administration’s egregious policy actions, the voices of multilateral institutions have been sadly muted. These internationally owned and supposedly independent bodies appear to be running scared of losing their access to US funding, but the greater risk for them is a loss of credibility if they continue with this cautious approach. By contrast, the heads of a dozen or so central banks have summoned sufficient courage to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3340012/key-voices-missing-chorus-criticism-trumps-destructive-actions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3340012/key-voices-missing-chorus-criticism-trumps-destructive-actions?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 17 Jan 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro One acronym has epitomised investors’ perception of US President Donald Trump’s resolve in following through on his threats to impose sky-high tariffs on America’s trading partners. On May 2 last year, Financial Times commentator Robert Armstrong came up with “Taco”, which stands for “Trump always chickens out”. This was meant to describe the sharp rally in stock markets following Trump’s decision in April to suspend his “reciprocal” tariffs. Further climbdowns, albeit partial ones, convinced... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339950/taco-trump-its-traders-who-are-chickening-out-now?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339950/taco-trump-its-traders-who-are-chickening-out-now?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 15 Jan 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley There were plenty of fireworks in major stock markets during 2025. Wall Street plunged after US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff barrage, only to end the year near a record high while Tokyo’s Nikkei index surged through the 50,000 mark. It is little surprise that significant developments in private equity markets in and beyond Asia went largely unnoticed. Shareholder capitalism continues to evolve outside the headlines. The pace of change is accelerating in Asia especially, not... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339159/shareholder-capitalism-taking-asian-family-businesses-new-direction?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339159/shareholder-capitalism-taking-asian-family-businesses-new-direction?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 10 Jan 2026 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For some time now, global economic cycles and financial market trends have been less US-centric and more multipolar in nature. This might seem counterintuitive given the long period of “American exceptionalism” stemming from the US dollar’s role as the world’s leading reserve currency, America’s deep and transparent capital markets, huge natural and human resources and the dominance of its technology companies in global equity indices. Deeper forces have been at play in the past several years,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339120/chinese-stocks-could-be-biggest-winner-venezuela-fallout?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339120/chinese-stocks-could-be-biggest-winner-venezuela-fallout?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Jan 2026 08:30:11 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley An obsession with “security” can create increasing insecurity. This paradox is being amply demonstrated as advanced nations, including the United States and Japan, take or contemplate joint action aimed at bolstering economic security but which could erode global economic growth and prosperity – or even result in physical conflict. How might such threats crystallise? Strengthening security, whether economic or military, suggests increased defence spending to, for example, secure sea lanes and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3336952/japans-economic-security-push-heralds-rising-protectionism-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3336952/japans-economic-security-push-heralds-rising-protectionism-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 20 Dec 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro One of the biggest sources of concern in global stock markets in recent years has been concentration risk. Long before the launch of ChatGPT – the chatbot whose debut in November 2022 stoked a frenzy of excitement about generative artificial intelligence (AI) – the benchmark S&P 500 index was dominated by a clutch of giant technology companies. In 2019, the 10 biggest companies in the index – led by the “Magnificent Seven” stocks consisting of Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3336850/fears-ai-bubble-asian-stock-markets-are-misplaced?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3336850/fears-ai-bubble-asian-stock-markets-are-misplaced?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 18 Dec 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro For a sign of the degree to which US President Donald Trump’s decision in August to double tariffs on most Indian goods to a staggering 50 per cent – the highest rate across Asia – is weighing on investor sentiment, look no further than the rupee. Having plumbed a series of record lows in recent months, India’s currency has been the worst performer in Asia this year and has breached the psychologically important level of 90 per US dollar. One of the last major economies yet to strike a trade... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3335150/india-and-japan-show-impact-trumps-tariffs-extend-beyond-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3335150/india-and-japan-show-impact-trumps-tariffs-extend-beyond-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Dec 2025 08:32:05 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley In May 2023, Australian economist Paul Sheard published a book, The Power of Money, explaining how governments and banks create money. Things have moved on since then in the world of cryptocurrency, and it is the little understood international politics of money that need clearing up now. Public interest continues to centre upon instruments such as bitcoin and its cryptocurrency imitators, whose huge price swings attract headlines. These are not currencies, however, but “risk assets” as Sheard... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3334380/global-stablecoin-surge-highlights-overlooked-risks-crypto-finance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3334380/global-stablecoin-surge-highlights-overlooked-risks-crypto-finance?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 29 Nov 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro This has been a brutal month for bitcoin enthusiasts. Since hitting an all-time high of US$124,752 on October 7, the original cryptocurrency has plunged 28 per cent and is on track for its worst month since June 2022, when a string of corporate collapses rocked the cryptocurrency industry. The dramatic sell-off has helped wipe almost US$1.2 trillion off the market capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market, of which bitcoin accounts for 58 per cent. The speed and scale of the decline are... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3334308/bitcoins-bruising-month-shows-perils-going-mainstream?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3334308/bitcoins-bruising-month-shows-perils-going-mainstream?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 27 Nov 2025 08:30:10 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley It is not quite true to say that China stole the show with its strong presence at the recent Cop30 climate summit in Belem, Brazil, because the United States had already voluntarily abdicated its lead role in these events. However, the summit did underline the staying power of state versus market economies when it comes to long-term investment. The truth is that Western approaches to climate change prevention or alleviation have been half-hearted and muddled from the start. They have relied... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3333537/how-cop30-highlights-power-chinese-state-capitalism?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3333537/how-cop30-highlights-power-chinese-state-capitalism?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 22 Nov 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro As 2025 draws to a close, three themes loom large in politics, economics and finance. The first is the unprecedented degree of uncertainty and unpredictability when it comes to the performance of economies and asset prices, amplified by US President Donald Trump’s erratic policymaking. Who would have predicted at the start of this year that the MSCI All Country World Index, a gauge of global stocks, would stand slightly below its all-time high five weeks before Christmas? More surprisingly, who... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333485/south-koreas-challenges-taste-whats-come-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3333485/south-koreas-challenges-taste-whats-come-global-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 20 Nov 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Is this the year emerging market stocks finally turned the corner? At the start of 2025, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the main gauge of equities in developing economies, was near the same level it was at in September 2010. The benchmark S&P 500 index, by contrast, was up almost 500 per cent. For the past 15 years, emerging market shares have underperformed their developed market peers. This is one of the most striking disconnects between economic heft – developing countries’ share of global... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3332584/emerging-market-rally-much-about-fleeing-us-finding-value?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3332584/emerging-market-rally-much-about-fleeing-us-finding-value?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 13 Nov 2025 08:30:11 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Is the famed Asian economic miracle that endured for decades from the 1950s onwards giving way to a “doom loop” of ageing populations, consequent fiscal strains, falling output, declining consumption and sagging economic growth? Will the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) compensate for these trends or simply add to unemployment in the region? Some development experts are beginning to acknowledge that while some of these issues have been examined in depth individually, their collective... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331798/why-asias-old-plan-dodge-middle-income-trap-wont-work-any-more?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331798/why-asias-old-plan-dodge-middle-income-trap-wont-work-any-more?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 08 Nov 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro This week marks the first anniversary of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. Trump’s return to the White House was a stunning political comeback that cleared the way for him to carry out his “America first” agenda of higher trade tariffs, more confrontational relationships with traditional US allies and a clampdown on immigration. At the time, many investors were worried about the consequences of Trump’s nationalist policies. A week after the election, Bank of America... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331716/has-trump-20-really-been-boon-stock-markets-and-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331716/has-trump-20-really-been-boon-stock-markets-and-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Nov 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro At the end of last year, Wall Street banks were rattling off reasons Asia’s economies were acutely vulnerable to the onslaught of protectionism that was about to be unleashed as then president-elect Donald Trump prepared to return to the White House. In a report in November, Morgan Stanley noted that seven of the 10 economies running the largest trade surpluses with the US were in Asia. It also said the region, excluding China, had become more dependent on America as a source of end demand. Last... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3330849/asias-trading-powerhouses-are-more-trump-proof-many-feared?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3330849/asias-trading-powerhouses-are-more-trump-proof-many-feared?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 30 Oct 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Global equity markets are on a tear. The MSCI World Index, a gauge of stocks in advanced economies, has risen 33 per cent to an all-time high since US President Donald Trump paused his “reciprocal” tariffs on most of America’s trading partners on April 9. While Trump’s tendency to back down has buoyed sentiment, the driving force behind the rally is the hype around generative artificial intelligence (AI). In the US, which has a 72.4 per cent weighting in the MSCI World, the market capitalisation... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3330022/4-reasons-fears-ai-fuelled-stock-market-bubble-are-overdone?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3330022/4-reasons-fears-ai-fuelled-stock-market-bubble-are-overdone?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 23 Oct 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In the United States, monetary policy is caught between a rock and a hard place. Cracks in the country’s resilient labour market have become more pronounced in the past months, exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s attacks on immigration. On October 14, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said “the downside risks to employment have risen”, signalling a further reduction in interest rates later this month. On the other hand, inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2 per cent target amid... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3329195/why-cooling-inflation-no-silver-bullet-asias-economic-concerns?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3329195/why-cooling-inflation-no-silver-bullet-asias-economic-concerns?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 Oct 2025 08:30:10 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Goldbugs have a spring in their step these days. In the third quarter of this year, gold was the second-best performing major financial asset after silver, according to Deutsche Bank data. Last month, the price of bullion hit a record high 13 times and currently stands just above US$4,000 per troy ounce after surging 54 per cent this year, the biggest gain since 1979. The past several years have been a boon to the yellow metal, whose role as a store of wealth is amplified during times of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328307/global-uncertainty-driving-gold-prices-higher-despite-bubble-fears?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328307/global-uncertainty-driving-gold-prices-higher-despite-bubble-fears?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 09 Oct 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley It is tempting to think that the global economy has become immune to shocks despite multiple ongoing physical conflicts, trade wars and other trauma that have characterised the Donald Trump era. Growth has continued, after all, albeit at a reduced pace, and financial markets are still riding high. This apparent economic resilience comes at a high cost, however. This growth is being “bought” by borrowing on a grand scale by governments, companies and households in both advanced and emerging... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3327660/why-cost-buying-economic-growth-destined-rise?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3327660/why-cost-buying-economic-growth-destined-rise?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 04 Oct 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Not long ago, the yen was seen as a refuge in times of turmoil. Japanese companies had a reputation for repatriating overseas earnings when sentiment in global markets deteriorated sharply. Japan itself was seen as politically and economically stable, encouraging investors to buy the yen as a hedge against volatility. Even today, Japan is one of the most attractive markets among the world’s leading economies. The results of Bank of America’s latest Asia Fund Manager Survey on September 16 showed... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3326767/4-reasons-japans-yen-safe-haven-trade-distant-memory?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3326767/4-reasons-japans-yen-safe-haven-trade-distant-memory?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 25 Sep 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Is China emerging from deflation? It might seem preposterous to ask such a question judging by the latest batch of grim economic data. Last month, consumer prices slipped back into negative territory, having contracted in annualised terms for five of the last seven months. Moreover, industrial output and retail sales expanded at the slowest monthly pace this year, while fixed-asset investment in the first eight months of 2025 suffered the steepest contraction for the period since the acute phase... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3325955/worst-chinas-deflation-scare-now-over?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3325955/worst-chinas-deflation-scare-now-over?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 18 Sep 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley At a time when cryptocurrencies are being promoted aggressively by none other than US President Donald Trump, among others, it is significant that the price of gold is leaping to record highs nearly every day. It is arguably even more significant that one leading cryptocurrency group, Tether, is investing heavily in gold, the same metal that cryptocurrency aspires to replace and which economist John Maynard Keynes once described as a “barbarous relic”. These developments are symptomatic of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325295/crypto-vs-gold-struggle-new-battle-lines-are-being-drawn?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325295/crypto-vs-gold-struggle-new-battle-lines-are-being-drawn?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 13 Sep 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley This time, it was not America’s Franklin D. Roosevelt, Britain’s Winston Churchill and the Soviet Union’s Joseph Stalin meeting in the Crimean city of Yalta to carve up a defeated Germany and reshape the post-war European order. Instead, it was China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and India’s Narendra Modi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in the Chinese city of Tianjin to consider the implications of a new and non-US-dominated global order. It was a historic occasion... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3324344/shanghai-spirit-new-world-order-needs-be-matched-west?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3324344/shanghai-spirit-new-world-order-needs-be-matched-west?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 06 Sep 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro Where are the guardrails and checks on US President Donald Trump’s radical agenda? This is a question that was asked frequently in the first three months of his second term as America’s financial and business community came to terms with his fierce assault on the global trading system and his contempt for the rule of law. Yet in the past few months, another, more alarming question has arisen. What if there are no effective restraints on Trump’s policies, or too much damage is done before... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3324278/china-standing-trump-unlike-us-courts-wall-street-or-business?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3324278/china-standing-trump-unlike-us-courts-wall-street-or-business?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Sep 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro In early February 2024, China’s equity market looked like it was in terminal decline. The MSCI China Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed at home and abroad, was down more than 50 per cent from its February 2021 peak, while the CSI 300 Index of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed stocks had lost more than 40 per cent. The combination of a cyclical and structural economic downturn, a protracted crisis in the housing market, Beijing’s cautious approach to deploying stimulus and the strong appeal... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3323431/four-reasons-fears-china-stock-market-bubble-are-misplaced?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3323431/four-reasons-fears-china-stock-market-bubble-are-misplaced?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 28 Aug 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley Global headlines continue to be dominated by wars, both of the physical kind characterised by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s siege of Gaza, as well as trade wars such as those provoked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. It is perhaps no surprise, then, that the resurgence of infrastructure wars has attracted relatively little international attention. And yet Japan’s relaunch of a major land and maritime infrastructure initiative spanning East Asia, Africa, India and the Middle... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3322677/why-japan-should-cooperate-china-infrastructure-not-compete?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3322677/why-japan-should-cooperate-china-infrastructure-not-compete?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 23 Aug 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro A seductive narrative has taken hold in financial markets since US President Donald Trump launched his assault on the global trading system in early April. Despite an average effective tariff rate that, according to the Yale Budget Lab, has surged to 18.6 per cent – up from 2.4 per cent in early January and the highest since 1933 – many investors and economists believe the global economy has averted a trade shock. Even the International Monetary Fund upgraded its global growth forecasts last... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321799/four-reasons-trump-has-pushed-his-luck-tariffs-too-far?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321799/four-reasons-trump-has-pushed-his-luck-tariffs-too-far?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 14 Aug 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley There is an old joke that economic commentators have predicted nine out of the past five recessions. The implication is that they engage in doom-mongering while other people get on with real life. This is an exaggeration, and there are good reasons to heed “the boy who cried wolf”. The financial world appears to be basking in the idea that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have fallen short of sparking a global trade war. Stock markets are riding high, bond markets are jittery but hardly... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321116/why-world-must-heed-boy-crying-wolf-over-risk-financial-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321116/why-world-must-heed-boy-crying-wolf-over-risk-financial-crisis?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 09 Aug 2025 08:30:07 +0000 Nicholas Spiro Nicholas Spiro If there was one thing analysts could agree on in the run-up to last year’s US presidential election, it was that the next occupant of the White House would be a China hawk. A hardline stance towards the world’s second-largest economy had been firmly bipartisan for years, while the big China problems confronting America’s next president called for a tough approach. On trade, the only question was whether tariffs on Chinese goods would be more punitive and broad-based. There was also intense... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321039/has-india-really-become-trumps-top-target-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321039/has-india-really-become-trumps-top-target-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 07 Aug 2025 08:30:24 +0000 Anthony Rowley Anthony Rowley The law has emerged as a powerful weapon in the war on global warming, with a series of landmark judgments seeking to make governments legally responsible for limiting greenhouse gas emissions arising from the use of fossil fuels. This move is one of the strongest yet in the fight against the existential threat of climate change, but it raises the question of who will pay for necessary remedial actions. Until now, the world’s approach to battling global warming has been largely passive. It has... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3320298/why-force-law-worlds-best-hope-beating-climate-change?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3320298/why-force-law-worlds-best-hope-beating-climate-change?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 02 Aug 2025 08:30:09 +0000