https://www.scmp.com/rss/319461/feed David Shambaugh is an internationally recognized authority and author on contemporary China and the international relations of Asia. He is currently professor of political science and international affairs and the director of the China Policy Programme at George Washington University. Prior to that, he was reader in Chinese politics in the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, where he also served as editor of The China Quarterly. As an author, he has published more than... en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Anniversaries should be occasions to celebrate accomplishments, reflect on the past, take stock of the present and look to the future. The People’s Republic of China’s 70th anniversary is such an occasion. Certainly, there will be grand pageantry orchestrated with military precision in Tiananmen Square. A decade ago, on the occasion of the 60th anniversary, I sat in the reviewing stands beneath the Gate of Heavenly Peace and watched the weaponry and floats, soldiers and citizens, pass down the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030844/china-70-must-take-its-greatest-challenge-yet-political-reform-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030844/china-70-must-take-its-greatest-challenge-yet-political-reform-and?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 30 Sep 2019 19:00:11 +0000 The news in The New York Times last week about the US government revoking multi-year and multiple-entry visas for well-known Chinese scholars Zhu Feng of Nanjing University and Wu Baiyi of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of American Studies has now been matched by recent reports that the Chinese embassy in Washington did not issue visas to Donald Trump’s China adviser Michael Pillsbury and former deputy special trade representative Wendy Cutler to attend a conference in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/when-china-and-us-wage-visa-war-against-each-others-scholars-nobody-wins/article/3007345?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/when-china-and-us-wage-visa-war-against-each-others-scholars-nobody-wins/article/3007345?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Apr 2019 10:40:44 +0000 The news in The New York Times last week about the US government revoking multi-year and multiple-entry visas for well-known Chinese scholars  Zhu Feng of Nanjing University and Wu Baiyi of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of American Studies has now been matched by recent reports that the Chinese embassy in Washington did not issue visas to Donald Trump’s China adviser Michael Pillsbury and former deputy special trade representative Wendy Cutler to attend a conference in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3007149/when-china-and-us-wage-visa-war-against-each-others?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3007149/when-china-and-us-wage-visa-war-against-each-others?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 22 Apr 2019 18:00:17 +0000 Forty years ago, on December 15, 1978, the world was stunned as American president Jimmy Carter and Chinese Communist Party chairman Hua Guofeng simultaneously announced to the world that the United States and the People’s Republic of China would establish and normalise diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979. The surprise announcement from the two capitals came after months of secret negotiations and six years after president Richard Nixon’s groundbreaking visit to China in February 1972. It... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2177934/enduring-china-us-relationship-its-complicated?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2177934/enduring-china-us-relationship-its-complicated?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 Dec 2018 18:00:20 +0000 With the all-important US midterm elections nearing, and the prospect that Democrats will take control of the House and possibly the Senate, many are wondering if such a change would herald any substantive change in the Trump administration’s or American policy towards China. It is very unlikely that the election outcome will appreciably change the hardline China policy. The reason is because there now exists a quite strong bipartisan consensus for pursuing a toughened China policy. Not only... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2171190/after-us-midterm-elections-dont-count?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2171190/after-us-midterm-elections-dont-count?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Nov 2018 19:02:52 +0000 US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent diplomatic tour through Southeast Asia – visiting Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore – was a useful opportunity to begin resetting the regional narrative about America’s roles in the region. Unfortunately, Pompeo’s “parachute diplomacy” through three of the 10 Asean states is likely only to further fuel the entrenched perception of the United States as an episodic actor that has no real strategy for the important region. Meanwhile, regional media and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2158490/us-gives-more-asean-china-does-asean-just?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2158490/us-gives-more-asean-china-does-asean-just?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 06 Aug 2018 21:02:36 +0000 The revelation that the National People’s Congress is likely to strike the constitutional clause limiting China’s president and premier to two five-year terms has rightly triggered worldwide speculation that Xi Jinping will remain in office far after the 20th party congress in 2022. This now seems entirely likely – unless he unexpectedly succumbs to health problems or is overthrown. Both of these possibilities are unknowable, but stranger things have occurred in Chinese politics in the past (and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2135208/under-xi-jinping-return-china-dangers-all-powerful-leader?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2135208/under-xi-jinping-return-china-dangers-all-powerful-leader?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Mar 2018 09:45:00 +0000 As Donald Trump embarks on what the White House describes as the longest visit by a US president to Asia in a quarter of a century (12 days, seven stops, five countries), a very nervous Asia is looking for reassurances of stability and continuity of commitments from him. If Trump sticks to the script – always a huge “if” – prepared by US government staff, countries in the region should be reassured by the outcomes. But if he spontaneously veers off script with provocative language, he could do... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2118147/can-trump-strengthen-americas-influence-asia-during-his?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2118147/can-trump-strengthen-americas-influence-asia-during-his?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Nov 2017 08:35:06 +0000 Party congresses in China, which occur at five-year intervals, tend to be of two varieties: consolidating or transitional. Those that occur at 10-year intervals allow for a transition of the Communist Party leadership from one general secretary to another, and often one political generation to another. Interim congresses – such as the upcoming 19th – are more about the consolidation of power by the incumbent leader and his agenda. This will certainly be the case this time – with all signs... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2115025/under-xi-jinping-return-one-man-rule-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2115025/under-xi-jinping-return-one-man-rule-china?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Oct 2017 06:00:45 +0000 Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and American President Donald Trump will hold a get-acquainted summit next week at Trump’s seaside retreat in Florida. Simply the fact that the two are meeting is a positive sign that provides some much-needed reassurance to a very uncertain relationship between the two countries. The entire Asia-Pacific region and the wider world have been nervously anticipating how the two major powers will deal with each other. While each leader will take the other’s measure... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2083512/can-steely-xi-jinping-and-volatile-donald-trump-find-right?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2083512/can-steely-xi-jinping-and-volatile-donald-trump-find-right?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Mar 2017 06:07:07 +0000 It is no secret that the competition for power and influence between the United States and China in Asia has been growing in recent years, and is now thought of by most analysts as the principal geostrategic factor in the region. The Obama administration did much to enhance American power and standing in the region, leaving their successors with perhaps the strongest position the US has ever held in the region. But the Trump administration is potentially on the verge of squandering – if not... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2064999/will-trump-force-asia-choose-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2064999/will-trump-force-asia-choose-china?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 Jan 2017 08:54:35 +0000 This has been a complex year for China and its government – a mix of “sweet and sour”. The sweetness came mainly in the external (foreign policy) domain, while the sourness was more evident internally. Rarely, if ever, has China had a more active year in diplomacy. President Xi Jinping (習近平) was seemingly everywhere, and his multiple state visits met with marked successes. China’s “First Lady”, Peng Liyuan (彭麗媛), accompanied her husband on most visits and left her own very positive impression in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1893878/2015-chinas-year-diplomatic-highs-and-domestic-lows?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1893878/2015-chinas-year-diplomatic-highs-and-domestic-lows?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 27 Dec 2015 01:01:02 +0000 The historic meeting between the leaders of China and Taiwan - Xi Jinping (習近平) and Ma Ying-jeou – on November 7 in Singapore was filled with rich symbolism reflecting the long distance travelled by the two rival regimes since 1949. It was the first time that the leaders had met in 66 years of separation, following the Republic of China’s retreat to Taiwan and the establishment of the People’s Republic of China on the mainland. READ MORE: Full coverage of the Xi-Ma summit in Singapore This... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1877422/xi-ma-summit-sends-pointed-message-cross-strait-relations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1877422/xi-ma-summit-sends-pointed-message-cross-strait-relations?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 10 Nov 2015 09:56:46 +0000 Click here to read the Chinese version of this article. Chinese President Xi Jinping is paying an official state visit to the United States this week. Xi will visit Seattle and then proceed to the nation's capital before going on to New York for the UN's 70th anniversary session. This is Xi's seventh visit to the US, but his first state visit as China's leader. What should we expect? Xi's visit comes at a time of heightened tensions in the Sino-American relationship. Strains have been... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1860413/watching-signs-can-honesty-and-candour-define-xi-jinpings?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1860413/watching-signs-can-honesty-and-candour-define-xi-jinpings?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 22 Sep 2015 10:30:45 +0000 The relationship between the United States and China has rightly been described as the most important relationship in world affairs. It is also the most complex and fraught one. These two titans are the world's two leading powers and are interconnected in numerous ways bilaterally, regionally, and globally. It is therefore of vital importance to understand the dynamics that underlie and drive this relationship at present, which are shifting. While Washington and Beijing cooperate where they can,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1819980/fundamental-shift-china-and-us-are-now-engaged-all-out?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1819980/fundamental-shift-china-and-us-are-now-engaged-all-out?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 10 Jun 2015 17:45:00 +0000