https://www.scmp.com/rss/321510/feed Lawrence J. Lau is the Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and the Kwoh-Ting Li Professor in Economic Development, emeritus, at Stanford University. He served as vice-chancellor and president of the Chinese University from 2004 to 2010, and chairman of CIC International (Hong Kong) from 2010 to 2014. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Lawrence J. Lau Lawrence J. Lau I am among those pleasantly surprised by the trade war truce reached between China and the United States after only two days of talks in Geneva. Earlier this year the US had imposed tariffs of 145 per cent on all Chinese imports; China had responded with tariffs of 125 per cent. Both countries have now agreed to reduce tariffs against each other by 91 percentage points. They also agreed to suspend a further 24 percentage points for the subsequent 90 days, leaving in place tariff rates of 10 and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3310478/unpredictable-trump-its-best-be-cautious-over-us-china-trade-truce?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3310478/unpredictable-trump-its-best-be-cautious-over-us-china-trade-truce?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 May 2025 12:30:08 +0000 The hail of US tariffs has shone a spotlight on export dependence. For China, dependence on exports, in particular to the United States, has fallen significantly over the last two decades, as has its reliance on foreign direct investment, including from the US. Last year, exports – of both goods and services – were 21.2 per cent of China’s gross domestic product, falling to 19.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year, down from a peak of 35.5 per cent in 2006. Its trade surplus has also... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306813/why-impact-us-tariff-war-china-wont-be-all-great?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306813/why-impact-us-tariff-war-china-wont-be-all-great?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 20 Apr 2025 21:30:08 +0000 China’s economic stimulus package, announced on September 24, has been welcomed by markets, driving up share prices and shoring up housing markets on the mainland and in Hong Kong. This rise in asset prices has increased the value of household wealth, even if temporary, and the “wealth effect” may well boost consumption. By the end of the month, the Shanghai A-share Index and Hang Seng Index had risen by 21.4 per cent and 15.8 per cent respectively. The average daily market turnover for the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3281135/china-must-now-stimulate-feel-good-factor-economic-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3281135/china-must-now-stimulate-feel-good-factor-economic-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 07 Oct 2024 21:30:09 +0000 Earlier this year, before China announced its target economic growth of around 5 per cent for the year at the “two sessions” parliamentary meetings in March, I had forecast a range of between 5 per cent and 5.5 per cent – a range rather than a point forecast because of the uncertainties China and the world face. My forecast was based in part on the target growth rates announced by the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions on the Chinese mainland. Based on the gross domestic... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3268739/education-taxes-how-china-can-boost-demand-and-drive-growth?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3268739/education-taxes-how-china-can-boost-demand-and-drive-growth?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Jul 2024 21:30:09 +0000 Earlier this year, before China announced its target economic growth of around 5 per cent for the year at the “two sessions” parliamentary meetings in March, I had forecast a range of between 5 per cent and 5.5 per cent – a range rather than a point forecast because of the uncertainties China and the world face. My forecast was based in part on the target growth rates announced by the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions on the Chinese mainland. Based on the gross domestic... https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3268964/education-taxes-how-china-can-boost-demand-and-drive-growth?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3268964/education-taxes-how-china-can-boost-demand-and-drive-growth?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Jul 2024 06:00:15 +0000 2022 was not a good year for China’s economy. After Covid-19 disruptions, especially in Shanghai in the second quarter, the mainland economy will probably grow by just over 3 per cent for the year, missing the original 5.5 per cent target. All eyes are therefore on the plan for 2023. A Xinhua report of the central economic work conference, held in Beijing from December 15-16, showed that the focus was clearly on economic development – fazhan (to develop or development) appears 45 times, followed... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204960/chinas-2023-economic-recovery-plan-will-see-big-push-domestic-demand-amid-global-uncertainties?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204960/chinas-2023-economic-recovery-plan-will-see-big-push-domestic-demand-amid-global-uncertainties?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 30 Dec 2022 23:30:11 +0000 Beijing set the target for economic growth at around 5.5 per cent for 2022, the lowest in decades. This is because of a shift in emphasis from quantity to quality of growth. However, improving the quality of growth, for example through providing clean air and water for all, frequently results in negative value-added at market prices, and will therefore reduce the GDP growth rate. The Chinese government is perfectly willing to make such a trade-off. Unfortunately, in the second quarter, a wave of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185637/why-there-good-cause-optimism-about-chinas-economy-over-next-decade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185637/why-there-good-cause-optimism-about-chinas-economy-over-next-decade?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 19 Jul 2022 01:15:22 +0000 The Chinese Communist Party is 100 years old. It is one of the few political parties in the world that has stood the test of time (this group includes the British Conservative Party and the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States). Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the mainland has been under the continuous rule of the Communist Party. Overall, the Chinese people have also done very well under the Communist Party. Between 1949 and 2020, real gross... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3139296/chinas-communist-party-turns-100-has-it-delivered-what-people-want?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3139296/chinas-communist-party-turns-100-has-it-delivered-what-people-want?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Jul 2021 01:15:14 +0000 The year 2021 can and should usher in a new beginning for Hong Kong. The Hong Kong economy suffered greatly for much of 2019 from the social unrest and for all of 2020 from the Covid-19 pandemic. Things will never return to the way they were. Hong Kong faces changed circumstances, with new challenges but also new opportunities. The Hong Kong economy has undergone huge changes over the past 40 years. Today, Hong Kong has become a predominantly service-oriented economy, focusing on financial and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3116068/how-hong-kong-can-reboot-its-economy-amid-devastation-covid-19-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3116068/how-hong-kong-can-reboot-its-economy-amid-devastation-covid-19-and?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 01 Jan 2021 22:45:12 +0000 Now that Covid-19 has become a pandemic, what does it mean for economic globalisation? At first glance, the pandemic seems likely to further impede globalisation as every country tries to protect itself from imported cases by limiting the entry of foreigners. Previously, I advocated “diversified globalisation”, with an emphasis on the second sourcing of critical supplies, as the way forward. However, diversification works when only one or two places in the world are hit by an epidemic or a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3075958/how-world-can-be-better-prepared-next-pandemic-and-keep-economic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3075958/how-world-can-be-better-prepared-next-pandemic-and-keep-economic?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 20 Mar 2020 19:00:10 +0000 Just as the Covid-2019 epidemic appears to be under control in China, new and serious outbreaks have occurred in South Korea, Italy, Japan, Iran and elsewhere. The virus seems to be ubiquitous and unstoppable. While I am hopeful that the epidemic in China will be over by the end of March, I worry about the possibility of overseas visitors to China bringing back the coronavirus, officially named Sars-CoV-2, and starting another wave of infection. China cannot afford to have its hard-won and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3064562/life-after-covid-19-how-we-travel-socialise-and-form-economic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3064562/life-after-covid-19-how-we-travel-socialise-and-form-economic?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 Mar 2020 22:30:11 +0000 In 2003, during the severe acute respiratory syndrome crisis, I was still living in the US. In March of that year, based on data on the occurrence of newly reported cases since the first case was identified in Guangdong in December 2002, and taking into account the isolation and quarantine measures then in place, I predicted that the epidemic would end in June, which it actually did. How did I manage to do so? The key is to focus on the number of newly reported cases. If and when it drops to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3048701/where-closing-borders-will-fail-good-hygiene-and-personal-vigilance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3048701/where-closing-borders-will-fail-good-hygiene-and-personal-vigilance?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 04 Feb 2020 01:00:10 +0000 The phase one trade deal between China and the US, signed on January 15, signaled a truce in the trade war. This is a welcome development, not only for the two countries but also for the rest of the world. It is expected to usher in a period of relative calm and reduced uncertainty, which should increase both investment and consumption globally.  However, it is not a net win for either country, even though they are both better off with the truce. They have both suffered economic losses from the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/us-china-tech-war-global-decoupling-prevents-monopoly/article/3046974?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/us-china-tech-war-global-decoupling-prevents-monopoly/article/3046974?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Jan 2020 09:13:26 +0000 The phase one trade deal between China and the US, signed on January 15, signalled a truce in the trade war. This is a welcome development, not only for the two countries but also for the rest of the world. It is expected to usher in a period of relative calm and reduced uncertainty, which should increase both investment and consumption globally.  However, it is not a net win for either country, even though they are both better off with the truce. They have both suffered economic losses from the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3046791/us-china-tech-war-may-lead-global-decoupling-supply-chains-theres?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3046791/us-china-tech-war-may-lead-global-decoupling-supply-chains-theres?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 20 Jan 2020 19:00:12 +0000 Two weeks ago, the US Treasury Department designated China a “currency manipulator”. Given the ongoing China-US trade war and negotiations, the real implications of such a designation are relatively insignificant. But has China really been a currency manipulator? The US uses three criteria to determine if a country is a currency manipulator: it must have a large trade surplus with the US; a large overall current account surplus, and; has intervened actively in the currency market. However,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3023593/currency-manipulation-us-may-have-more-answer-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3023593/currency-manipulation-us-may-have-more-answer-china?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 Aug 2019 17:00:05 +0000 The worst crisis ever faced by Hong Kong is getting even worse day by day, hour by hour, minute by minute. We are staring at a bottomless abyss into which we are about to fall, but we feel powerless to stop it. This is the time for the people to put aside our differences and, together, try to save what we can of our beloved hometown. There is one thing we want and need: the immediate restoration of law and order, so we can all go back to a semblance of normal life. There should be zero tolerance... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3021704/hong-kong-must-pull-back-abyss-and-avoid-bloody-ending-or-it-may?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3021704/hong-kong-must-pull-back-abyss-and-avoid-bloody-ending-or-it-may?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 09 Aug 2019 01:00:09 +0000 Hong Kong is now going through one of its worst-ever crises. It did not have to happen, but this is not the time for recriminations. An independent inquiry over the extradition bill affair may help us learn how such a crisis may be avoided in the future, but cannot provide guidance on how to move forward. Some blame foreign countries for instigating and supporting the protest movement. Some blame supporters of Taiwan independence for egging the protesters along. Some blame certain wealthy... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3020441/neither-violence-nor-beijing-can-fix-hong-kongs-housing-shortage?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3020441/neither-violence-nor-beijing-can-fix-hong-kongs-housing-shortage?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 30 Jul 2019 01:00:13 +0000 The US-China trade war is once again heating up. While it will do greater damage to the Chinese economy than to the US’, both in absolute and relative terms, Beijing can manage the negative impacts on its real GDP and employment through an appropriate increase in domestic demand. There is no need to panic. The Chinese stock markets, which are driven by psychology rather than fundamentals, have already taken a hit. In 2018, stocks listed in Shenzhen on average lost 30 per cent, in Shanghai 20 per... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3011282/how-china-can-shrug-impact-us-trade-war-its-economy-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3011282/how-china-can-shrug-impact-us-trade-war-its-economy-and?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 23 May 2019 19:00:28 +0000 The trade war between China and the US is actually not about trade. It is driven by two important long-term developments simultaneously in play in China-US relations. The first has to do with the potential competition between China and the US for economic and technological dominance in the world. The second has to do with the rise of populist, isolationist and protectionist sentiments in the world in general and in the US in particular.  The competition between China and the United States has... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2160041/behind-us-china-trade-war-lies-competition?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2160041/behind-us-china-trade-war-lies-competition?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 Aug 2018 21:00:15 +0000 What are the impacts of the trade war on the Chinese economy? While the immediate direct impacts on the Chinese economy are certainly negative, they are small, affecting less than 0.5 per cent of gross domestic product, and quite manageable. However, the trade war itself may do damage to the longer-term relations between the two countries. For example, it may affect the future rate of growth of the trade in services between the two countries, which consists mostly of education and tourism, and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2156470/if-us-china-trade-war-escalates-how-will?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2156470/if-us-china-trade-war-escalates-how-will?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 23 Jul 2018 09:45:44 +0000 President Donald Trump wishes to reduce the US-China trade deficit. Just how large is this deficit? The 2017 trade deficit in goods, according to official US data, was US$376 billion, compared to the official Chinese data of US$275 billion. There are many reasons for the discrepancy.  After adjustments for the difference in the valuation of exports and imports and in the treatment of re-exports through Hong Kong, the discrepancy can be reduced to between US$325 billion (Chinese data) and US$362... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2137982/trump-should-increase-us-exports-china-not-launch-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2137982/trump-should-increase-us-exports-china-not-launch-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 20 Mar 2018 09:15:00 +0000 The news that China’s constitution may be amended by the National People’s Congress to remove term limits for the president and vice-president has aroused significant reactions around the world. The existing constitution limits the president, vice-president and members of the NPC to two consecutive five-year terms. There are fears that China would become more authoritarian and dictatorial with such an amendment, and that a president might serve for life. However, it is important to observe that... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2135962/why-now-rationale-behind-xi-jinpings-power-consolidation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2135962/why-now-rationale-behind-xi-jinpings-power-consolidation?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 07 Mar 2018 09:31:15 +0000 Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported a rate of growth of real gross domestic product of 6.9 per cent for 2017, an increase from the 6.7 per cent in 2016, and higher than the target rate of growth for the year. This announcement was welcomed by much of the world as a sign that China has finally and successfully made the transition to its “new normal”. However, it was also met with the usual scepticism in some quarters, especially because of the recent voluntary... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2130661/no-reason-believe-china-falsifies-its-national-economic-data?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2130661/no-reason-believe-china-falsifies-its-national-economic-data?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 Jan 2018 01:17:40 +0000 Xi Jinping was elected general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party at the 18th party congress in November 2012. In the five years between the 18th and 19th party congresses, Xi has accomplished a great deal. First and foremost, with his very successful anti-corruption campaign, he averted the biggest threat to the continued survival of the party and the nation. The precariousness of the situation can be seen in the hundreds of thousands of high-level party and government officials and the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2117058/how-xi-jinping-revitalised-party-and-state-his-morally?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2117058/how-xi-jinping-revitalised-party-and-state-his-morally?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 26 Oct 2017 09:08:00 +0000 The first China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue concluded in Washington on July 19 without an agreement. There was no joint communiqué. Even the scheduled separate press conferences were cancelled, first by the US, and then by China. What does this mean for their economic relations in the future? First of all, such an outcome is not totally unexpected. For domestic political reasons, neither China nor the US can appear to make ­significant concessions at this time. On the Chinese side, the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2103890/us-and-china-can-beat-trade-deficit-treaty-not-all-out-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2103890/us-and-china-can-beat-trade-deficit-treaty-not-all-out-war?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 24 Jul 2017 09:45:15 +0000 Despite all the predictions of doom by Western pundits in 1997, Hong Kong has done well since its reversion of sovereignty to China 20 years ago. The handover was a historic event, hailed by Chinese everywhere as the closure of the century-long humiliation suffered by China at the hands of the Western powers, beginning with the Opium War. Even Taiwan sent a delegation to Hong Kong for the handover ceremony. The transition itself went smoothly under the leadership of Tung Chee-hwa, the first... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2100399/can-hong-kong-become-indispensible-nation-again?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2100399/can-hong-kong-become-indispensible-nation-again?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 30 Jun 2017 03:46:19 +0000 President Xi Jinping’s ( 習近平 ) “Belt and Road Initiative” is a grand, multicountry (71 at last count) development plan that spans multiple decades and has the objective of linking and transforming the economies of Asia, Europe, Africa and Oceania. It seeks to stimulate and create sustainable trade and investment exchanges where none existed­, through enhanced connectivity, thus benefiting – and accelerating economic development for – each country along the belt and road. It can give new... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2097338/how-hong-kong-can-be-key-pillar-belt-and-road-infrastructure?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2097338/how-hong-kong-can-be-key-pillar-belt-and-road-infrastructure?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Jun 2017 10:04:55 +0000 Moody’s recently downgraded China’s sovereign credit rating for the first time since 1989, and changed the outlook for its economy from stable to negative. It also downgraded Hong Kong on the basis of its close economic relationship with mainland China. Are these downgrades justified? First, central government debt is only about 20 per cent of gross domestic product, with more than 99 per cent denominated in renminbi. China should have no difficulty in meeting these obligations, just as the US,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2096104/moodys-downgrading-chinas-credit-rating-without-basis-amid?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2096104/moodys-downgrading-chinas-credit-rating-without-basis-amid?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 29 May 2017 09:31:22 +0000 What are some of the highlights of this year’s meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference? First, the economy. The rate of real GDP growth held steady at 6.7 per cent in 2016. This year, the target is “around 6.5 per cent”. The macroeconomic situation has begun to stabilise and the economy has essentially entered the horizontal part of the L-shaped recovery, at a flat but high rate of growth that is still the envy of the world. The... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2078758/economy-judicial-reform-china-settling-new-normal?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2078758/economy-judicial-reform-china-settling-new-normal?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Mar 2017 09:08:24 +0000 Almost everyone was taken by surprise when voters in the United Kingdom chose Brexit, including even, or perhaps especially, ardent supporters of Brexit in the UK itself. However, buyer’s remorse has begun to creep in. Nobody seems to know what the next steps should be for the UK, but, for better or worse, Brexit is going to have to happen. It is in the best interests of not only the UK and the European Union but also the rest of the world if the UK and the EU can come to a mutually satisfactory... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2025282/way-ease-pain-brexit-all-parties?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2025282/way-ease-pain-brexit-all-parties?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Oct 2016 04:50:12 +0000 There has been a great deal of discussion lately about the level of total Chinese debt relative to national GDP. However, some of the conclusions reached may have been influenced by a misunderstanding of the actual situation. There is public debt, and then there is other debt – they should not all be treated as the same. First, public (central government) debt in China is low, estimated to be around 20 per cent of gross domestic product, the lowest among major economies (for example, it is 250... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2022646/why-chinas-debt-not-worth-losing-any-sleep-over-just-yet?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2022646/why-chinas-debt-not-worth-losing-any-sleep-over-just-yet?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 27 Sep 2016 09:56:39 +0000 The recent renminbi devaluation has been wrongly blamed on rumours of a possible introduction of a Tobin tax by Beijing. What is a Tobin tax? First proposed by economist James Tobin, it is a tax on currency conversion that would be levied on all inbound and outbound cross-border capital account flows. Current account flows are exempt. It was designed to discourage short-term currency speculation in the aftermath of the Asian currency crisis of 1997-1998. Yuan falls four straight days as Tobin... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1930586/why-tobin-tax-could-help-stabilise-renminbi?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1930586/why-tobin-tax-could-help-stabilise-renminbi?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 27 Mar 2016 00:30:51 +0000 The renminbi surprised world markets with its unexpected devaluations first in August 2015 and then in January. The devaluations affected confidence both domestically and overseas, and even contributed to the delay by the US Federal Reserve Board in raising the US interest rate. They also led to many rumours about a potential significant devaluation of up to 20 per cent. Many hedge funds are known to have taken large short positions against the renminbi, with some betting that the exchange rate... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1926408/why-china-will-avoid-big-destabilising-yuan-devaluation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1926408/why-china-will-avoid-big-destabilising-yuan-devaluation?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 17 Mar 2016 09:15:15 +0000 According to the just-published outline of the 13th five-year plan, China’s average annual rate of growth will slow from 7.8 per cent in the previous five years to over 6.5 per cent, and per capita disposable income will also fall, from 7.7 per cent to over 6.5 per cent. There is, however, no target for international trade, except that it will be optimised by increasing domestic value-added content in exports and both quality and quantity in imports. This may imply low or no growth in the gross... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1922470/how-hong-kong-can-survive-even-thrive-amid-decline-demand?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1922470/how-hong-kong-can-survive-even-thrive-amid-decline-demand?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 09 Mar 2016 09:00:45 +0000 The “offsetting” of the severance and long-service payments with an employee’s Mandatory Provident Fund is a contentious issue, but it does not need to be. The problem should be approached by examining the original purpose of the payment schemes to see whether there are better ways of fulfilling their aims without reducing employee benefits or increasing employer costs. READ MORE: Hong Kong employers are failing to provide basic protection and benefits for their workers Both the schemes for... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1892466/time-rationalise-patchwork-retirement-provisions-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1892466/time-rationalise-patchwork-retirement-provisions-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Dec 2015 03:26:06 +0000 The historic summit meeting between President Xi Jinping (習近平) and President Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore last Saturday was the very first time the leaders of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait have met face to face since the meeting between Chiang Kai-shek and Mao Zedong (毛澤東) in Chongqing (重慶) in 1945. This is indeed a milestone – the culmination of the progress in the development of “formal” relations between the two sides since the similarly historic “ice-breaking journey” undertaken by Dr Lien... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1877829/meeting-face-face-xi-jinping-and-ma-ying-jeou-take-big-leap?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1877829/meeting-face-face-xi-jinping-and-ma-ying-jeou-take-big-leap?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Nov 2015 09:55:13 +0000 I was shocked to learn that the supposedly confidential proceedings of a meeting of the University of Hong Kong council were secretly recorded, presumably by one of its members, and leaked to a local radio station, which broadcast what two of its members, Professor Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Leonie Ki Man-fung, said at the meeting word for word. It is not known whether what other members said will make the air eventually. The secret recording, without obtaining the prior consent of those being... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1874200/why-there-no-public-outrage-over-hku-audio-leak?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1874200/why-there-no-public-outrage-over-hku-audio-leak?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 01 Nov 2015 04:00:45 +0000 The 70th anniversary of the victory of the Allies over Japan in the second world war is upon us. This war created tens of millions of victims, perhaps even hundreds of millions, in Asia. I was one of those victims, but a relatively lucky one. My parents lived in Hong Kong before the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbour. They were fortunate enough to escape after the Japanese army invaded and occupied Hong Kong in 1941, to move back to Guilin , in Guangxi . Towards the end of 1944, in one of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1854724/japan-must-give-world-truthful-account-what-happened-second?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1854724/japan-must-give-world-truthful-account-what-happened-second?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 02 Sep 2015 09:45:45 +0000 I am writing this article not because Ayesha, my wife, who is a member of the council of the University of Hong Kong, was pushed around, confined, taunted and sworn at by a mob at a meeting of the council on Tuesday night. (I hope these were not students from one of our best institutions of higher learning. They certainly fall short of the expected standard of an educated person.) I am also not writing to comment on the appropriateness of the decision to delay the appointment of a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1845531/hku-council-meeting-chaos-reflects-worrying-mob-mentality?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1845531/hku-council-meeting-chaos-reflects-worrying-mob-mentality?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 02 Aug 2015 23:30:00 +0000 Before long, the Legislative Council will deliberate on the proposed political reform package, which, if passed, will make election of the chief executive by universal suffrage in 2017 a reality. It's therefore imperative for all our fellow citizens of Hong Kong to seize the moment and do what they can to help make universal suffrage a reality. In 1932, when the US was in the midst of its Great Depression, president Franklin D. Roosevelt said: "The country demands bold, persistent... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1807025/hong-kong-cannot-afford-wait-perfection-its-march-towards?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1807025/hong-kong-cannot-afford-wait-perfection-its-march-towards?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 May 2015 09:30:30 +0000 The National People's Congress Standing Committee has sketched out a broad framework for the election of Hong Kong's chief executive by universal suffrage in 2017. Many among us are disappointed that the framework is not more flexible. However, it is still an important step forward. The alternative is to continue the election of our leader by the Election Committee, which no one wants to see happen. Waiting until 2022 to implement the chief executive election by universal suffrage would not... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1600918/npc-framework-offers-scope-positive-change-2017-chief-executive-election?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1600918/npc-framework-offers-scope-positive-change-2017-chief-executive-election?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Sep 2014 09:00:00 +0000 The National People's Congress Standing Committee decision on political reform completed step two of the five-step process required to amend the method for the selection of Hong Kong's chief executive. It is a significant step forward in the city's democratic development. The guiding principles laid down in the decision comply fully with the Basic Law and the Standing Committee's relevant decisions. They are also consistent with the gradual and orderly progress of democratic development in Hong... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1583747/framework-political-reform-best-we-could-expect-point-time?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/1583747/framework-political-reform-best-we-could-expect-point-time?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 02 Sep 2014 09:15:45 +0000