https://www.scmp.com/rss/321535/feed Andrew Sheng is a former central banker and financial regulator, currently distinguished fellow at the Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong. He writes widely on Asian perspectives on global issues, with columns in Project Syndicate, Asia News Network and Caijing/Caixin magazines. His latest book is “Shadow Banking in China”, co-authored with Ng Chow Soon, published by Wiley. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng After eight decades of relative peace following the end of World War II, we now find ourselves in the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine entering its fourth year and escalating violence between Israel, the US and Iran. After 12 days of fighting last June, the latter conflagration has erupted again in a widening war that has killed Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and closed the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices to near record highs. In 1984, American historian Barbara... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3347982/time-confront-folly-iran-war-and-irrational-us-spending?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3347982/time-confront-folly-iran-war-and-irrational-us-spending?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Mar 2026 12:30:09 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng The US-Israeli attacks on Iran have profound implications for the global governance order. For America, the world’s mightiest power, to attack another nation without congressional or UN approval condemns the rules-based order to the dustbin of history. Governance is about checks and balance by rules, self-restraint or simply a humble appreciation that waging “forever wars” often ends up in self-destruction. War is such an extreme and costly measure it should only be undertaken after careful... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346410/us-israeli-war-iran-makes-mockery-global-governance-rules?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346410/us-israeli-war-iran-makes-mockery-global-governance-rules?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 13 Mar 2026 12:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address was a long and rambling preparation for the congressional midterm elections in November. If, as Trump claims, America “is back, bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever before”, what does it mean for the rest of the world? Is the global economy as a whole bigger, better, richer and stronger than ever? Or are we in what Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney argued in his stunning speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos last... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344836/trumps-state-union-report-underlines-shift-world-minus-one?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3344836/trumps-state-union-report-underlines-shift-world-minus-one?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Feb 2026 12:30:09 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng The subject of artificial intelligence (AI) has become so prevalent in global discourse that the recent World Economic Forum in Davos reportedly had more than 200 sessions for corporate leaders to discuss AI from multiple angles. The conversations focused on five key themes: AI and technology’s role in geopolitical rivalry; AI as a productivity and growth driver; AI as a job disrupter; ethics and governance for generative AI and robot systems; and AI’s environmental footprint. Underlying these... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3343344/age-ai-we-must-learn-act-future-clear?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3343344/age-ai-we-must-learn-act-future-clear?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 13 Feb 2026 08:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng This year started with a bang – from the United States’ intervention in Venezuela and the investigation opened against US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to US President Donald Trump’s renewed claims on Greenland and the potential for US action following instability in Iran. Amid these crises, gold prices are now over US$5,500 per ounce, up over 27 per cent from the price on January 1. This comes after the price of gold jumped by 65 per cent in 2025 after soaring by 27 per cent in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3341788/us-dollar-weakens-all-glitters-gold?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3341788/us-dollar-weakens-all-glitters-gold?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 31 Jan 2026 01:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng By any measure, 2025 will be remembered as a tipping point. Violent armed conflict escalated in many areas, notably Ukraine, Israel-Gaza-Iran-Lebanon, Pakistan-India, Thailand-Cambodia, Venezuela, Sudan, Ethiopia and Myanmar. It was also among the three hottest years on record and one of the most expensive for natural disaster costs. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s tariff wars inflicted trade uncertainty and strategically shifted global supply chains. Technology witnessed massive leaps in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338435/can-europe-survive-its-crippling-paralysis?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338435/can-europe-survive-its-crippling-paralysis?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 02 Jan 2026 21:30:10 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng The word “involution”, or neijuan – referring to excessive competition in social and economic life – has become a common slang term in China. Students, workers and even business leaders have been feeling overworked, stressed and unable to find a way out of huge external and internal pressures. This usage of the term has its roots in the work of anthropologists who employed it to describe conditions in rural societies where increasing labour inputs did not seem to yield tangible benefits. The... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3337011/why-china-cracking-down-involution?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3337011/why-china-cracking-down-involution?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 19 Dec 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng The end of the year is a time for a bit of philosophising, reflecting on history and where we are going in the years ahead. This year has been dominated by the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), which is becoming the latest field of struggle for leadership between the United States and China. Laymen such as myself dabble in using different models, such as ChatGPT, DeepSeek, Gemini, Perplexity and Qwen. Other than doing basic research and helping to collate larger data sets to extract new... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335194/age-ai-holds-both-promise-and-peril?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335194/age-ai-holds-both-promise-and-peril?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 Dec 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng In 2004, Joshua Cooper Ramo, now co-CEO of Kissinger Associates, coined the term “Beijing Consensus” as an alternative to the Washington Consensus, the neoliberal framework of economic policies devised in the 1980s by the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and US Treasury. China had just joined the World Trade Organization and, within the country, there was considerable scepticism that a Beijing Consensus existed. Come 2007, and as the global financial crisis broke out – first with the US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3333564/rise-beijing-led-global-south-consensus?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3333564/rise-beijing-led-global-south-consensus?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 21 Nov 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng President Xi Jinping’s speech at the fourth plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee last month outlined the guidelines for the upcoming 15th five-year plan. There is clearly determination to focus on technological self-reliance, building an economic model of high-quality productive forces based on innovation and a strong industrial base that is resilient against external threats and headwinds. At the Financial Street Forum in Beijing at the end of October, Vice-Premier He Lifeng... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331884/china-needs-high-quality-financial-development-support-its-five-year-goals?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331884/china-needs-high-quality-financial-development-support-its-five-year-goals?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 07 Nov 2025 21:30:09 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng Last week, two economists and one economic historian were awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for explaining innovation-driven economic growth. Northwestern University professor Joel Mokyr was commended “for having identified the prerequisites for sustained growth through technological progress” and French economist Philippe Aghion and Brown University’s Peter Howitt were jointly honoured “for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction”. It was noble (no pun intended) of the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3330102/amid-us-china-rivalry-nobel-prize-winners-oeuvre-offers-food-thought?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3330102/amid-us-china-rivalry-nobel-prize-winners-oeuvre-offers-food-thought?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 24 Oct 2025 08:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng While in Hong Kong for a forum on navigating the tariff war, the consensus was that no one is immune to structural uncertainty where everything is happening at once and no one knows what exactly comes next. Navigation is about planning and executing a journey, but you need maps, compasses and points of reference to know where you are and where you are going. Journeys across time and space need sound navigation, especially in troubled waters. Sailing is all about teamwork, but with today’s rapid... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328477/six-steps-navigate-us-china-tariff-war-and-ai-bubble?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3328477/six-steps-navigate-us-china-tariff-war-and-ai-bubble?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 10 Oct 2025 21:30:07 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng Are we now seeing a cyclical or structural point of inflection in financial markets? The cyclical view is that in the short term we are going up or down in a stock market bubble. The structural view is that there are deep issues changing the environment of financial markets, driven by factors such as globalisation (or deglobalisation), technology, demographics, climate change and local and geopolitical issues. The simple answer is we are not in an either-or situation, but undergoing... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3326888/world-financial-landscape-changing-are-we-ready?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3326888/world-financial-landscape-changing-are-we-ready?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Sep 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes, as Mark Twain is reputed to have said. With European economies promising to up their defence expenditure to 5 per cent of GDP, are we repeating the 1930s, when some powers used defence spending to pull themselves out of the Great Depression? The interwar years were dominated by Western powers and Japan, with the rest of the world under the colonial yoke. World War I took place largely between the European powers and did not settle old scores.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325201/world-heading-back-1930s-style-war-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325201/world-heading-back-1930s-style-war-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 12 Sep 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng Central bankers are sometimes known as the high priests of finance. That is because they control high-powered money, commonly known as the monetary base, or the sum of currency in circulation plus commercial bank deposits with them. By buying government bonds from banks or the market, which expands central bank balance sheets, the commercial banks’ reserves rise, improving market liquidity and therefore reducing short-term interest rates. In effect, central banks affect market sentiment by... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3323585/markets-can-see-whos-calling-shots-us-rates-and-its-not-fed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3323585/markets-can-see-whos-calling-shots-us-rates-and-its-not-fed?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Aug 2025 12:30:07 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng As the typhoon that is US President Donald Trump sweeps over trading partners and foes alike, even as stock markets are hitting record highs, there is an eerie feeling of being trapped inside the eye of the hurricane with no guidance on what to do and where to go. There is misinformation everywhere. It seems as though there is no objective, independent verification of the real level of casualties and devastation in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Neither is it clear Trump can deliver peace in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321949/typhoon-trump-wreaks-havoc-there-way-escape-storm?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3321949/typhoon-trump-wreaks-havoc-there-way-escape-storm?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 15 Aug 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng Several Asian economies are anxiously assessing how to compete for trade with the United States after missing the August 1 deadline for the Trump administration’s tariff negotiations. The tariff rate for exports from the Philippines to the US is reportedly down to 19 per cent. However, one Filipino lawmaker says it’s effectively 6 per cent. The rate for Indonesia is now 19 per cent and for Vietnam 20 per cent. Hours before the deadline, Malaysian and Thai leaders seemed to be on the cusp of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3320432/world-disrupted-maga-economics-all-bets-are?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3320432/world-disrupted-maga-economics-all-bets-are?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 01 Aug 2025 13:12:06 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng Coming back from an extended conference on “Gross National Happiness” in Bhutan, one of the world’s first carbon-negative countries, I became aware that intergenerational justice may be one of the most important moral questions we face today. The world is drowning in debt. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global debt amounted to US$250 trillion in 2023, or 237 per cent of GDP, with global private debt at more than US$150 trillion. Meanwhile, worldwide net private wealth stood... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3316913/fallen-world-must-ensure-justice-future-generations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3316913/fallen-world-must-ensure-justice-future-generations?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 04 Jul 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng The arrival of artificial intelligence, robotics and new technology has been heralded as a game changer. But how will it unfold, and who will be able to take advantage of AI to win the contest of the century: the United States, China or some other country? Writing in Foreign Affairs in 2023, James Manyika, senior vice-president of technology and society at Google, and Nobel laureate economist Michael Spence argued that “by the beginning of the next decade, the shift to AI could become a leading... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3313287/who-will-win-ai-contest-century?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3313287/who-will-win-ai-contest-century?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Jun 2025 12:30:06 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng Wall Street pundits and investors are schizophrenic about US assets. The dollar weakened after Moody’s cut the United States’ credit rating, citing the increasing fiscal deficit, as well as the rising interest costs on government debt. On the other hand, the S&P 500 not only recovered after US President Donald Trump’s April tariff shock, but is now less than 5 per cent off its record high in February. Nevertheless, 30-year US Treasury yields recently exceeded 5 per cent per annum, indicating... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3311336/central-bankers-golds-safe-haven-status-has-never-looked-better?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3311336/central-bankers-golds-safe-haven-status-has-never-looked-better?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 May 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng After finance ministers and central bankers met at the World Bank/IMF spring meetings in Washington last month, the buzz is on the future of the dollar-anchored international monetary system. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the gathering that, while the purpose of the Bretton Woods institutions was stability, “everywhere we look across the international economic system today, we see imbalance”. He blamed US deficits on “an unfair trading system”. He blamed the “intentional policy... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3309622/trump-trying-pull-dollar-carpet-under-monetary-system?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3309622/trump-trying-pull-dollar-carpet-under-monetary-system?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 09 May 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Chaotic as it seems, Donald Trump’s tariff war is a deadly serious attempt to address what he and his team perceive as the core issues of the dollar-dominated global monetary system. Look no further than how United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, trade official Peter Navarro and senior economic adviser Stephen Miran share a visceral anger in their public statements. The US feels victimised because it runs large current account and trade deficits from the strengthening dollar – due in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3307909/trump-wants-great-monetary-reset-where-can-world-hide?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3307909/trump-wants-great-monetary-reset-where-can-world-hide?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 25 Apr 2025 14:30:09 +0000 April Fool’s Day fell on April 1, but the next day US President Donald Trump unleashed “Liberation Day”, imposing sweeping tariffs on nearly all US trade partners. The US stock market fell 4 per cent on April 3, wiping out more than US$9 trillion in market value in just two days. According to JPMorgan, the new US tariff rates are higher than the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930 which exacerbated the Great Recession. The increase is equivalent to a tax rise of about US$700 billion, or 2.4... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3305991/trumps-tariffs-could-mean-saying-goodbye-us-dollar-profits?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3305991/trumps-tariffs-could-mean-saying-goodbye-us-dollar-profits?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Apr 2025 12:30:07 +0000 James Monroe, the fifth president of the United States, enunciated his Monroe Doctrine in 1823, which proclaimed the Western Hemisphere (basically North and South America) off limits to further European colonisation even as America respected existing European colonies in the Americas. Since 1823, the American drive to the Pacific, assumption of the former lands of the Spanish empire – Texas, California, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Guam and the Philippines (which became independent in 1946) – and... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3304159/trumps-maga-ambition-may-be-more-audacious-we-think?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3304159/trumps-maga-ambition-may-be-more-audacious-we-think?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Mar 2025 21:30:07 +0000 No historian could have watched US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month without recognising a 21st century version of the ritual public execution of a Roman gladiator. Trump gave the world a lesson in realpolitik when he told Zelensky: “You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards … You’re gambling with World War III.” Two weeks earlier, US Vice-President J.D. Vance stunned Britain and Europe by saying their biggest threat... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3302122/what-trump-really-wants-be-rid-loser-war-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3302122/what-trump-really-wants-be-rid-loser-war-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 Mar 2025 12:30:08 +0000 US President Donald Trump is stunning the world with zigzag policy changes. His dictum “Drill, baby, drill” shows the US government is focused on boosting energy and wealth and abandoning net zero commitments to phase out greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. By withdrawing from the Paris Agreement and removing environmental constraints on businesses that exploit energy resources, Trump is safeguarding the US as the global hegemonic oil and natural gas producer, ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia. The... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3300508/how-trumps-rejection-net-zero-exposes-inconvenient-truths?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3300508/how-trumps-rejection-net-zero-exposes-inconvenient-truths?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Feb 2025 08:30:09 +0000 The arrival of the Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) tool DeepSeek has reignited conversations about technological governance. This month’s AI Action Summit in Paris, France was attended by global leaders like European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Among them, US Vice-President J.D. Vance shared four major US policy viewpoints on AI. First, the Trump administration “will ensure that American AI technology... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3298661/oil-bitcoin-trump-envisions-multipronged-us-gold-standard?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3298661/oil-bitcoin-trump-envisions-multipronged-us-gold-standard?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 Feb 2025 12:30:08 +0000 As China celebrates the Year of the Snake, the first lai see (red packet) was the revelation of DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence (AI) software, which led investors to question US tech valuations, causing a near-US$1 trillion Wall Street rout. Widening volatility looms, with US President Donald Trump signing a flurry of executive orders, amid huge uncertainty from natural disasters and, of course, emerging tech game changers like DeepSeek. It made me think of the classic game of chance, Snakes... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3296825/deepseeks-us-tech-rout-kicks-2025s-game-snakes-and-ladders?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3296825/deepseeks-us-tech-rout-kicks-2025s-game-snakes-and-ladders?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Jan 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng The US looks set for simultaneous wars in three areas: deficits, currency and energy. That’s incoming US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s “three arrows” strategy – cutting the US fiscal deficit to 3 per cent of gross domestic product, growing the US economy at 3 per cent a year and expanding US oil and gas production by 3 million barrels per day. These ambitious goals, deeply tied to each other, mean Bessent is looking to deliver what financial markets want: growth plus stability. This is a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3293205/air-whether-us-economic-arrows-will-hit-mark?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3293205/air-whether-us-economic-arrows-will-hit-mark?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Jan 2025 12:30:08 +0000 With the return of the highly unpredictable Donald Trump as US president in January next year, how should one manage the coming risks? Risk can be defined as the possibility of the occurrence of an event or condition that would negatively affect our well-being. One scans for risks to try to avoid or mitigate them. The first thing to remember is that risk cannot be eliminated; it can only be managed or hedged. In a static zero-sum system, one man’s risk is another man’s opportunity. If you... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3291522/world-fraught-risk-trump-will-add-bumps?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3291522/world-fraught-risk-trump-will-add-bumps?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 20 Dec 2024 12:30:07 +0000 As 2024 draws to a close, the world is undergoing a volatile transition marked by escalating conflicts, worsening climate disasters, frightening technology disruption and growing social protests. I was so absorbed by Donald Trump’s presidential victory in the United States that I missed the news that the German coalition government had fallen apart. Then, earlier this week, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol did the unthinkable and declared martial law, which was thankfully reversed by... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3289621/world-brink-total-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3289621/world-brink-total-war?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Dec 2024 21:30:10 +0000 As US president-elect Donald Trump completes his cabinet nominations, his policy intentions have become clearer. His nominees are almost all white, male, right-wing loyalists, many with media experience, who are inclined towards tariffs and have an isolationist bent. Tech mogul Elon Musk will co-head a new department of government efficiency while tariff-happy Howard Lutnick, the billionaire CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, is the pick for commerce secretary. The three front runners for Treasury... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3287608/trump-20-it-will-be-every-country-itself?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3287608/trump-20-it-will-be-every-country-itself?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Nov 2024 12:30:08 +0000 Donald Trump has made a stunning comeback and will be the 47th US president. With the Republicans winning the presidency, taking control of the Senate and possibly the House of Representatives, and with a Supreme Court conservative majority, Trump has amassed formidable power to deal with some of the US’ toughest structural issues. The Democratic Party will be licking its wounds, wondering how it lost so badly. Trump’s 2017-2021 presidency was a roller-coaster of policy swings that riveted not... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3285643/what-us-defence-industry-overhaul-under-trump-means-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3285643/what-us-defence-industry-overhaul-under-trump-means-world?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 08 Nov 2024 08:30:08 +0000 How are banks responding to an era of massive tech disruption and the prospects of lower interest rate margins as global interest rates fall? The banking industry used to be a highly profitable business because interest rate margins – the difference between the lending rate and deposit costs – were high. In the 1960s, when bankers were considered trusted custodians of other people’s money, the “3-6-3” dictum referred to bankers offering depositors 3 per cent on their accounts, lending that money... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3283687/do-banks-stand-chance-against-tech-giants?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3283687/do-banks-stand-chance-against-tech-giants?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 25 Oct 2024 12:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng On October 19, 1987, after three days of decline in the New York stock market, the Hong Kong market dropped by 10.5 per cent after a rise of 89 per cent in the previous 12 months. Black Monday had triggered a worldwide stock crash. In US dollars terms, eight stock markets declined by 20-29 per cent, three by 30-39 per cent and three more (Hong Kong, Australia and Singapore) by more than 40 per cent. Total losses were estimated at US$1.7 trillion – nearly 10 per cent of the global economy in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3281903/black-monday-lesson-1987-reform-financial-crisis-makes-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3281903/black-monday-lesson-1987-reform-financial-crisis-makes-us?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Oct 2024 12:30:09 +0000 There is a lot of hype about artificial intelligence (AI) and technology sparking a revival of economic growth globally. As Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow said in 1987 about the productivity puzzle, “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” In recent years, growth has slowed everywhere due to productivity declines, in spite of the internet and computer revolution. From 1996 to 2005, US labour productivity growth averaged 2.62 per cent, but slowed to 1... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3279102/best-ai-outcomes-good-policy-key?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3279102/best-ai-outcomes-good-policy-key?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 20 Sep 2024 21:30:07 +0000 In July 1944, delegates from 44 countries gathered in a UN-sponsored conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire to decide on a post-World War II monetary and financial order. In the closing speech of the gathering, then US Treasury secretary Henry Morgenthau concluded that the conference had succeeded in addressing the twin “economic evils – the competitive currency devaluation and destructive impediments to trade” that led to the war. To prevent competitive devaluation, the Bretton Woods... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3277446/bretton-woods-should-heed-cries-fair-play-or-go?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3277446/bretton-woods-should-heed-cries-fair-play-or-go?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Sep 2024 14:30:08 +0000 Andrew Sheng Andrew Sheng August for leading central bankers means a trip to Jackson Hole. That’s where the Kansas Federal Reserve Bank is hosting central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants at its annual economic symposium, held since 1974. While last year’s meeting reviewed the lingering impact of the pandemic, inflation and monetary policy responses amid structural shifts in the global economy, this year’s focus is on “reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3275508/us-rate-cuts-horizon-glass-looks-half-full-again?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3275508/us-rate-cuts-horizon-glass-looks-half-full-again?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Aug 2024 14:30:11 +0000 To paraphrase prose written by American poet Carl Sandburg, money is power, freedom, a cushion and the root of all evil. Since the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoin cryptocurrency in 2009, techies today can create money, somewhat eroding the legal power of central banks to create fiat money. Few doubt that the mighty American empire is founded on the power of the United States dollar. Not only is the US able to create that currency, it has the power to sanction anyone using it,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3271727/how-americas-national-debt-has-become-worlds-liability?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3271727/how-americas-national-debt-has-become-worlds-liability?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:30:11 +0000 Last year was the hottest summer on record and, while this summer is not over yet, it feels like it will break last year’s record. My air-conditioning bill has gone up because the nights are hotter. In May, India experienced a record heatwave with temperatures nearing 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). As I flew into Mongolia’s capital Ulaanbaatar this week, I was made aware that the country had experienced a nearly 2.3-degree increase in average temperature in the past 80 years,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3270073/developing-nations-suffer-rich-worlds-climate-complacency?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3270073/developing-nations-suffer-rich-worlds-climate-complacency?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 12 Jul 2024 08:30:08 +0000 The world is in a mess and the accelerated use of artificial intelligence (AI) is disrupting businesses and the way we live. We are struggling to understand what the AI transition means for us, as consumers, parents, teachers, businesses or government leaders. The AI debate is raging, especially over its dual military-civilian use. AI can guide the next drone or missile to hit you with faster accuracy than imagined. It can also develop the next miracle drug. We do not know if AI is ultimately... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3268294/ai-revolution-were-either-it-together-or-were-it?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3268294/ai-revolution-were-either-it-together-or-were-it?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Jun 2024 12:30:09 +0000 If you watched Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s presentation at Computex Tapei, you might be convinced that artificial intelligence (AI) has ushered in a new industrial revolution in which accelerated computing with the latest AI chips has unleashed the power of doing everything faster, more efficiently and with less energy. In this age of intense global rivalry and competition, AI, robotics and improved engineering promise a techno-utopian way to achieve dominance over rivals. McKinsey estimated that... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3266477/europe-must-embrace-ai-revolution-or-fade-irrelevance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3266477/europe-must-embrace-ai-revolution-or-fade-irrelevance?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 Jun 2024 12:30:09 +0000 As emerging and developing economies navigate a turbulent world of intense geopolitical rivalry and worsening climate warming, the question of a new development model is top of the growth agenda. The current narrative is how these economies choose between an insecure rich West and the rising Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) grouping of countries seeking an alternative order. The Global South is not convinced by the Biden administration’s story of democracy vs autocracy, and of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3264766/era-freewheeling-finance-leading-economic-growth-may-soon-be-over?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3264766/era-freewheeling-finance-leading-economic-growth-may-soon-be-over?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 May 2024 12:30:10 +0000 The United States has struck another blow at free trade. This week, US President Joe Biden announced wide-ranging tariff increases, including to 100 per cent for Chinese electric vehicles, 50 per cent for semiconductors and solar cells, and 25 per cent for certain batteries, gloves, and steel and aluminium products. This comes after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen decried China’s “overcapacity” during her visit to the country last month. It feels like any state that dares to challenge Western... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3262970/new-us-trade-salvo-china-shows-emotional-west-playing-fire?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3262970/new-us-trade-salvo-china-shows-emotional-west-playing-fire?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 May 2024 12:30:10 +0000 Until 2016, it was almost taken for granted that free trade is good for everyone. That was before Donald Trump started the tariff war on Chinese imports, which Joe Biden – his successor as US president – turbocharged with even more sanctions against individuals, companies and countries. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has calculated that, since 2019, the number of new trade barriers imposed yearly had nearly tripled to about 3,000 in 2022. The European Union is about to introduce a carbon... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3261287/how-protect-global-free-trade-misguided-us-nationalism?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3261287/how-protect-global-free-trade-misguided-us-nationalism?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 May 2024 08:30:17 +0000 Flying into Jakarta this week, I am reminded of the exotic blend between the ancient and the new that is Indonesia. Java is famous for its beautiful batik textiles, cotton fabric printed with superb designs from many cultures, from Indian patola patterns, and native Javanese bold block icons to Peranakan butterfly and bird prints. This combination of old and new is reflected in the incoming government, comprising 72-year-old President-elect Prabowo Subianto, a former general, and 36-year old... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3259357/batik-silicon-chips-asias-craftsmanship-its-tech-superpower?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3259357/batik-silicon-chips-asias-craftsmanship-its-tech-superpower?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 19 Apr 2024 08:30:14 +0000 The Kennedy-era guru on capitalism John Kenneth Galbraith presciently proclaimed in his 1967 book, The New Industrial State, that “the imperatives of technology and organisation, not the images of ideology, are what determine the shape of economic society”. The clash of ideology is killing people around the world. In the meantime, investors are chasing tech stocks such as Nvidia, while the rest of the world swelters in what are the hottest years on record. According to the World Inequality... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3257942/why-world-cannot-rely-tech-giants-solve-its-problems?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3257942/why-world-cannot-rely-tech-giants-solve-its-problems?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 Apr 2024 12:30:11 +0000 On March 7, US President Joseph Biden delivered his State of the Union address. This was his energetic bid for re-election over Donald Trump, to allay concerns about his age and stamina, show America’s strength and call for continued support for Ukraine. More than six in 10 Americans responded positively to the message, according to a CNN flash poll. Ten days later, Vladimir Putin, mentioned seven times in Biden’s speech and seemingly likened to Hitler, was re-elected as Russian president with... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3256275/how-much-longer-will-disunited-world-debt-fund-americas-expansion?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3256275/how-much-longer-will-disunited-world-debt-fund-americas-expansion?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Mar 2024 08:30:09 +0000 Money makes the world go round, sang Sally Bowles in the film Cabaret. Indeed, it keeps the global economy ticking and if central banks were to stop printing it, we would be in a 1930s-style depression. Money is powerful – so why have mainstream development theory and models ignored the role of finance? Until the 2008 global financial crisis, the mainstream economic models used by central banks, governments, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank were built on dynamic stochastic general... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3254300/old-development-models-no-longer-work-we-must-all-find-our-own-path?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3254300/old-development-models-no-longer-work-we-must-all-find-our-own-path?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 08 Mar 2024 12:30:16 +0000 Back in 2021, amid a raging pandemic, the US National Intelligence Council warned of a more contested world in its Global Trends 2040 report. It highlighted the themes of global challenges, fragmentation, disequilibrium, contestation and adaptation. Post-Covid, a world that has experienced vaccine and digital divides between the West and rest does appear to be fragmenting into blocs reinforced by nationalism and polarisation and which feature deepening inequalities, failed international... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252899/trade-barriers-go-west-rest-are-reglobalising?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252899/trade-barriers-go-west-rest-are-reglobalising?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Feb 2024 07:30:11 +0000