https://www.scmp.com/rss/322077/feed Michal Thim is a Taiwan analyst at the Prague-based think tank, Association for International Affairs (AMO), and a member of the Centre for International Maritime Security with a research focus on cross-strait relations, and East and Southeast Asian regional politics and security. Michal was director of the AMO Research Centre from July 2007 until August 2010. He studied in the Asia-Pacific Studies programme at the National Chengchi University (Taiwan) in 2010-2012 and returned to Taiwan in 2014... en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com United States arms sales to Taiwan usually provoke an angry rebuke from Beijing. The notification, published by the Defence Security Cooperation Agency on September 24, indicating future arms sales to Taiwan valued at some US$330 million, is a case in point. China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang denounced the sale as a breach of China’s sovereignty and demanded an end to US-Taiwan arms sales. Needless to say, Taiwan has praised the decision and thanked Washington for its continuous... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2166594/behind-us-smaller-arms-package-taiwan-lie-bigger?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2166594/behind-us-smaller-arms-package-taiwan-lie-bigger?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 02 Oct 2018 18:00:45 +0000 Beijing’s pressure on Taiwan, following the 2016 elections, was to be expected. The Democratic Progressive Party, much despised in the corridors of Zhongnanhai, took both the presidency and majority in the Legislative Yuan, the latter for the first time in Taiwan’s democratic history. It was also to be expected because Beijing insisted on a condition that the DPP and President Tsai Ing-wen could not possibly entertain: to declare that Taiwan is part of the People’s Republic of China. What was... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2161642/chinas-predictable-squeezing-taiwan-hasnt-had-desired?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2161642/chinas-predictable-squeezing-taiwan-hasnt-had-desired?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Aug 2018 21:00:15 +0000 Confidence in the development of cross-strait relations and eventual peaceful “reunification” was the main message from a recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Lien Chan, Taiwan’s former vice-president and an honorary chairman of the Kuomintang (KMT). This may seem like conciliatory approach for media and analysts accustomed to the remarkably harsher rhetoric coming from Beijing in recent years, and especially since the 2016 election victory of the Democratic Progressive Party,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/hong-kong/article/2156622/xi-jinpings-rhetoric-taiwan-may-have-been-gentler?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/hong-kong/article/2156622/xi-jinpings-rhetoric-taiwan-may-have-been-gentler?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 24 Jul 2018 17:00:15 +0000 On the back of the expected Trump-Kim summit in Singapore, the Han Kuang military exercise in Taiwan served as a reminder that the Korean peninsula is not the only hotspot in East Asia. The exercise, from June 4 to June 9, was the largest in recent history. While it is held annually, recent developments underline the need for Taiwan’s military to put its combat preparedness on display. This year’s drill is the third of Tsai Ing-wen’s presidency and takes place amid Beijing’s military posturing... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/china/article/2149873/taiwans-military-exercise-sends-three-loud-and-clear?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/china/article/2149873/taiwans-military-exercise-sends-three-loud-and-clear?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 10 Jun 2018 06:02:14 +0000 First it was Sao Tome and Principe, then Panama and now the Dominican Republic. These three countries have one thing in common: all have switched recognition from the Republic of China (Taiwan) to the People’s Republic of China following the 2016 electoral victory of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan. The Dominican Republic made its move on May 1 and became the most recent of Taiwan’s erstwhile “diplomatic allies” to do so.  But calling countries that recognise Taiwan “allies” doesn’t... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2144431/all-its-power-china-cant-sever-taiwans-links-rest-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2144431/all-its-power-china-cant-sever-taiwans-links-rest-world?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 May 2018 08:45:45 +0000 President Xi Jinping’s China is more confident with the outward expression of its strength than it has ever been since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. Xi himself solidified his hold on power recently when the National People’s Congress removed the term limit on the office of president. However, there is one item on China’s agenda for “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” that is steadily drifting away, even if Beijing is trying to convince the world to the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2138650/how-increasingly-assertive-china-pushing-taiwan-closer-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2138650/how-increasingly-assertive-china-pushing-taiwan-closer-us?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 25 Mar 2018 02:04:18 +0000 Donald Trump’s ascension to the White House has been a mixed bag for Beijing. On the one hand, Trump’s hostile campaign rhetoric was followed by acts that rubbed China’s nerves raw, such as his phone call with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen during the transition period, along with the new administration’s first arms sales to Taipei. On the other hand, Trump’s businessman-like manner, the ­ambiguous role of Beijing-friendly figures like his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and his animosity towards the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2125047/why-trumps-new-security-strategy-china-and-taiwan-means?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2125047/why-trumps-new-security-strategy-china-and-taiwan-means?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Dec 2017 08:41:29 +0000 Last week was not the best for Beijing when it comes to relations with the US and China’s long-standing efforts to dissuade Washington from supporting Taiwan. First, the US Senate’s Armed Services Committee approved a provision in the National Defence Authorisation Act for 2018, calling for a resumption of port visits to Taiwan by the US Navy. Second, the State Department announced the Trump administration’s first arms sale to Taiwan, approving a package of equipment potentially valued at US$1.4... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2101345/china-only-has-itself-blame-fresh-us-arms-sales-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2101345/china-only-has-itself-blame-fresh-us-arms-sales-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Jul 2017 06:30:30 +0000 Former Taiwan vice-president Wu Den-yih prevailed among six contenders for the Kuomintang chairmanship, defeating not only incumbent Hung Hsiu-chu but also the former Taipei mayor, Hau Lung-pin. Hau’s defeat is the latest in a string of electoral defeats for high-profile KMT princelings, while Hung’s gamble of bringing the election forward did not quite work out. The faithful voted for Hung but it was not enough to defend the mandate. In the end, Wu’s victory was a result of bringing in the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2095611/why-beijing-will-be-watching-taiwans-new-kmt-leader-gears?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2095611/why-beijing-will-be-watching-taiwans-new-kmt-leader-gears?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 25 May 2017 03:50:52 +0000 When China in 2012 put into service its refurbished Soviet-era aircraft carrier the Liaoning, it was apparent that if the People’s Liberation Army was serious about aircraft carrier capability, more vessels would follow. The launch of its first domestically built aircraft carrier, the Type 001A, is a step in that direction. Aircraft carriers are not just unique power projection platforms, they are also handy foreign policy tools. The deployment of two US carrier strike groups towards the Taiwan... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2092986/how-chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-can-help-get-beijings?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2092986/how-chinas-new-aircraft-carrier-can-help-get-beijings?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 May 2017 03:08:53 +0000 US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has just concluded his first visit to China, the first high-level visit by a member of the new American administration. Should appearances be trusted, meetings with Foreign Minister Wang Yi (王毅) and President Xi Jinping (習近平) proceeded with greater calm than the preceding rhetoric had suggested. Both sides discussed the forthcoming summit between Xi and US President Donald Trump, along with a number of thorny issues including the status of Taiwan, despite... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2080723/taiwans-call-realistic-defences-against-china-may-find?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2080723/taiwans-call-realistic-defences-against-china-may-find?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Mar 2017 05:00:09 +0000 In 1971, when representatives of the Republic of China walked out of the UN in protest over what would likely lead to expulsion anyway, Taipei still possessed greater recognition than Beijing. Competition for recognition between Taipei and Beijing, which became known as “cheque book diplomacy”, has been an extension of cross-strait conflict to a global diplomatic arena. South Korea, Singapore, and South Africa were among notable nations to switch recognition to Beijing in the 1990s. Thus, it is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2057672/any-strategy-beijing-leave-taiwan-stripped-allies-may-well?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2057672/any-strategy-beijing-leave-taiwan-stripped-allies-may-well?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 28 Dec 2016 08:46:21 +0000 The discovery of nine, allegedly undeclared, armoured combat vehicles belonging to the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) set off a diplomatic storm as soon as it was revealed that the military machines were returning from regular exercises that the SAF conduct in Taiwan. Singapore authorities appear to be genuinely surprised and confused as stops like this has been a routine matter in the past. The question ultimately boils down to, “Why now?” The answer is that, while Beijing has always known about... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2050723/beijing-seizure-singapore-armoured-vehicles-low-risk-shot?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2050723/beijing-seizure-singapore-armoured-vehicles-low-risk-shot?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Dec 2016 10:10:25 +0000 Beijing’s approach to post-election Taiwan looks utterly unimaginative. It has reverted from quasi-governmental contacts to party-to-party communication, in essence the state of affairs between 2005 and 2008. Take last weekend’s visit of eight representatives of Taiwanese municipalities, led by the Kuomintang, to Beijing, where they met Taiwan Affairs Office director Zhang Zhijun (張志軍). In recent months, Beijing has allegedly cut the number of tourists visiting Taiwan and put a hold on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2021590/kmt-will-face-grim-prospects-agent-beijings-interests?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2021590/kmt-will-face-grim-prospects-agent-beijings-interests?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Sep 2016 04:07:12 +0000 The dispute in the South China Sea challenges China’s bilateral and multilateral relations in and outside its immediate neighbourhood. However, the first and most important casualty has been the coherence of Asean. Granted, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is not known for sustaining unity in the face of pressure, and it is hardly a surprise to long-time observers that arguably the most significant organisation of regional integration has failed to reflect on the latest developments in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2000792/chinas-divide-and-rule-attitude-southeast-asia-good-no-one?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2000792/chinas-divide-and-rule-attitude-southeast-asia-good-no-one?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 08 Aug 2016 08:55:43 +0000 Held in Singapore every year since 2002, the Shangri-La Dialogue has become one of the – if not the – most anticipated security-related events in Asia. The dialogue owes its prestige to high-level government representation, regularly bringing together defence ministers from inside and outside the region, allowing for bilateral and multilateral meetings on the side of the official conference agenda. Unsurprisingly, the dialogue has been dominated in recent years by a single issue: the South China... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1969275/new-cold-war-brewing-over-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1969275/new-cold-war-brewing-over-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 08 Jun 2016 09:00:39 +0000 The inauguration speech of Taiwan’s new president, Tsai Ing-wen, was bound to disappoint China long before its first words were uttered. It was clear that Tsai was not going to include references to either “one China” or the “1992 consensus”. Beijing expresses dissatisfaction after Tsai Ing-wen swaps ‘consensus’ for ‘historic fact’ Instead, she referred to cross-strait arrangements using ambiguous wording. Primarily, she noted that in 1992, “the two institutions representing each side across the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1952746/why-its-beijings-best-interests-keep-cross-strait-relations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1952746/why-its-beijings-best-interests-keep-cross-strait-relations?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 24 May 2016 07:16:30 +0000 Last week, 45 Taiwanese were handed over to Chinese police, shortly after some had been acquitted in a Kenyan court. The fallout from what should have been a case of cross-border cooperation in combating organised crime was depressingly predictable. Kenyan authorities washed their hands of the matter, Chinese praised Nairobi for upholding the “One China” policy, Taiwanese cried foul, and pundits began asserting that Beijing must be sending some message to the incoming Tsai Ing-wen... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1936880/no-ulterior-motive-taiwanese-extradition-case-was-just-badly?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1936880/no-ulterior-motive-taiwanese-extradition-case-was-just-badly?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 18 Apr 2016 09:00:25 +0000 Xi Jinping’s ( 習近平 ) three-day stopover in Prague on his way to Washington may have been a mere side story overshadowed by the Chinese president’s business in the US, but Xi’s visit to the Czech Republic deserves some attention as it indicates Beijing’s approach towards the EU in general. It also offers insight into the limits of Beijing’s soft power, relying mostly on economic incentives and undermined by its own sense of insecurity. Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for greater ties with... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1933551/xi-jinpings-prague-trip-highlighted-limits-chinas-soft-power?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1933551/xi-jinpings-prague-trip-highlighted-limits-chinas-soft-power?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 04 Apr 2016 09:56:24 +0000 What a difference eight years can make. A badly beaten party awaits someone to put it back on track. That description was as apt for the Democratic Progressive Party in 2008 as it is for the KMT in 2016. For good reasons, many see the Kuomintang slipping away into oblivion. However, nothing in politics is a foregone conclusion. The KMT can recover if it gets a few things right. Restoration of party unity would be a good start. A more daunting task is to marginalise diehards’ excessive influence.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1929417/lesson-party-revival-taiwans-kmt-should-look-its-bitter?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1929417/lesson-party-revival-taiwans-kmt-should-look-its-bitter?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 24 Mar 2016 02:32:04 +0000 The situation in the South China Sea has changed markedly since tensions re-emerged in the spring of 2009, when Beijing submitted an official note to the UN in which it used the “nine-dash line” to support its claim that the South China Sea belongs to China. The recent discovery of the deployment of an advanced surface-to-air missile system on Woody Island is yet another development in a long chain of events marked by deteriorating relations between China and other regional stakeholders, namely... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1915213/will-chinas-smart-strategy-south-china-sea-push-things-one?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1915213/will-chinas-smart-strategy-south-china-sea-push-things-one?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 22 Feb 2016 09:42:05 +0000 The January 16 general elections in Taiwan elevated to power the Democratic Progressive Party in a radical overturn of results from 2008 when the Kuomintang swept the DPP from the presidency, and a dramatic change from the 2012 elections, which saw the KMT’s Ma Ying-jeou re-elected and his party retain its legislative majority. Four years later, the KMT finds itself in a position superficially similar to that of the DPP in 2008, but in reality, far worse. The DPP, post 2008, was a demoralised,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1904841/beijing-should-see-new-political-realities-taiwan-chance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1904841/beijing-should-see-new-political-realities-taiwan-chance?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 25 Jan 2016 09:33:47 +0000