https://www.scmp.com/rss/322786/feed Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret) is a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and a China Forum expert. He was director of Centre for Security Cooperation of the Office for International Military Cooperation of the Ministry of National Defence of China. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Zhou Bo Zhou Bo The eminent British military strategist Michael Howard famously said that the purpose of forecasting wars is not to get it right, but to avoid getting it terribly wrong. US President Donald Trump has already got it terribly wrong. No one knows why he launched a war with Israel against Iran. Trump may have been partly correct when he posted on Truth Social that, “Iran’s Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated, and their leaders have been... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346764/trumps-iran-gamble-wont-advance-his-prospects-home-or-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3346764/trumps-iran-gamble-wont-advance-his-prospects-home-or-china?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 17 Mar 2026 12:30:08 +0000 Zhou Bo Zhou Bo Putting aside the ongoing war of words between Beijing and Tokyo surrounding Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statements on Taiwan last month, there is a simple question that needs answering. Can Japan’s Self-Defence Forces really afford to fight the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) without American military support? Takaichi’s answer appears to be that Japan’s military must do so. The legislation approved by Japan’s Diet in September 2015 allowed the country to exercise its right of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3334783/takaichis-taiwan-talk-risks-unwinnable-fight?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3334783/takaichis-taiwan-talk-risks-unwinnable-fight?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Dec 2025 21:30:09 +0000 Zhou Bo Zhou Bo The Alaska summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was a test balloon for Trump to find out, as he said, what Putin had in mind. The subsequent meeting in the White House between Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders was another test balloon – for Europe – to find out what Trump had in mind. Both were useful yet not really productive. To start with, Putin has emerged as a clear winner. The red-carpet welcome on American soil with... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3322399/new-european-security-landscape-emerging-after-alaska-summit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3322399/new-european-security-landscape-emerging-after-alaska-summit?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Aug 2025 12:30:07 +0000 Zhou Bo Zhou Bo There has been much speculation as to which third parties might get involved if war broke out between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait. In June, The Economist published an article on this very question. More recently, the Financial Times reported that the US had been putting pressure on Japan and Australia to clarify what role they would play in such a situation. It appears that there would be few countries on China’s side. China’s only treaty ally is North Korea. A 1961 treaty... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3319108/which-countries-will-pick-sides-us-china-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3319108/which-countries-will-pick-sides-us-china-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 23 Jul 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Zhou Bo Zhou Bo After listening to US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth’s all-out attack on “communist China” at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, some might have wondered what the Chinese people would make of it. But as a Chinese delegate listening to him live, I was wondering what Hegseth’s boss, US President Donald Trump, would think. In February, Trump called US Vice-President J.D. Vance’s speech in Munich bashing European allies “brilliant”. This time, we haven’t had his thoughts. I wondered, not only... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3313856/why-us-defence-chiefs-attack-china-wont-find-favour-southeast-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3313856/why-us-defence-chiefs-attack-china-wont-find-favour-southeast-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Jun 2025 12:30:12 +0000 Zhou Bo Zhou Bo This is another “DeepSeek moment” for China. By now, the world will have heard of how the Pakistan Air Force used Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets with Chinese-made PL-15 missiles to shoot down India’s French-made Rafale fighter jets, its best enlisted combat aircraft. What lessons might Beijing draw? First, this is a milestone for China’s defence industry. Until now, China’s state-of-the-art weapons have had no real chance of proving their reliability or lethal power. China has not been at war in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3310220/4-lessons-china-pakistan-j-10s-down-indian-rafale-jets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3310220/4-lessons-china-pakistan-j-10s-down-indian-rafale-jets?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 15 May 2025 21:30:07 +0000 Zhou Bo Zhou Bo This is another “DeepSeek moment” for China. By now, the world will have heard of how the Pakistan Air Force used Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets with Chinese-made PL-15 missiles to shoot down India’s French-made Rafale fighter jets, its best enlisted combat aircraft. What lessons might Beijing draw? First, this is a milestone for China’s defence industry. Until now, China’s state-of-the-art weapons have had no real chance of proving their reliability or lethal power. China has not been at war in... https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3310276/4-lessons-china-pakistan-j-10s-down-indian-rafale-jets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3310276/4-lessons-china-pakistan-j-10s-down-indian-rafale-jets?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 14 May 2025 07:00:24 +0000 Zhou Bo Zhou Bo Even if the dust hasn’t settled, the fog over the Ukraine war is not as thick as it once was. Russia is close to regaining full control of the western region of Kursk and, according to its own estimates, controls nearly all of Luhansk and more than 70 per cent of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. This is why Russian President Vladimir Putin is not in a hurry to accept a ceasefire agreement. He needs to buy more time to completely win on the battlefield. Then he could look to “solve... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306780/how-china-could-play-role-european-security-us-retreats?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3306780/how-china-could-play-role-european-security-us-retreats?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 21 Apr 2025 21:30:08 +0000 US Vice-President J.D. Vance’s speech at the recently concluded Munich Security Conference was an unexpected stab in the back for America’s appalled allies. Without any talk on how to end the war in Ukraine, he accused European capitals of betraying their values and ignoring concerns over immigration and free speech. His comments prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to say that “decades of the old relationship between Europe and America are ending”. Along with US President Donald... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3299919/if-end-pax-americana-what-comes-next?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3299919/if-end-pax-americana-what-comes-next?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 25 Feb 2025 12:30:08 +0000 When I wrote in the Financial Times in 2023 that even though China has nothing to do with the Ukraine war, the longer it drags on, the more people will look to Beijing as a broker, I never expected Donald Trump to be re-elected as US president and ask China for help. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump said he had reached out to President Xi Jinping during a phone call and described China as having “a great deal of power over that situation”. There is a grain of black humour when the man... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3296443/how-china-and-us-can-work-together-end-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3296443/how-china-and-us-can-work-together-end-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Jan 2025 01:30:09 +0000 It won’t be long before the world finds out if Ukrainian officials were right in saying on Monday that their forces had fired at North Korean soldiers in combat for the first time since they were deployed by Russia to its western Kursk region. Despite denials from Pyongyang, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had said on October 31 that as many as 8,000 North Korean troops were in Russia and expected to enter combat. Are North Korean troops a game changer in the grinding Russo-Ukrainian... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3285144/north-koreas-support-russia-wont-be-game-changer-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3285144/north-koreas-support-russia-wont-be-game-changer-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Nov 2024 21:30:07 +0000 It won’t be long before the world finds out if North Korea has really sent troops to help Russia fight Ukraine. Despite denials from Pyongyang, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on October 31 that as many as 8,000 North Korean troops were in Russia’s Kursk region and expected to enter combat. Are North Korean troops a game changer in the grinding Russo-Ukrainian conflict? I think not. Russia has already gained the upper hand on the battlefield against the Ukrainians, who are weary, short... https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3285213/north-koreas-support-russia-wont-be-game-changer-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3285213/north-koreas-support-russia-wont-be-game-changer-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Nov 2024 04:45:18 +0000 This really is an eye-opener. According to The New York Times, US President Joe Biden approved a classified document in March called the “Nuclear Employment Guidance”. Sources familiar with the situation say that the strategy laid out in the document emphasises the need for US forces to prepare for possible coordinated nuclear confrontations with Russia, China and North Korea. My first question is this: where is a China-Russia-North Korea alliance, let alone nuclear alliance? China-Russia... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278704/why-chinas-no-first-use-policy-requires-more-nuclear-weapons?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278704/why-chinas-no-first-use-policy-requires-more-nuclear-weapons?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 18 Sep 2024 01:30:09 +0000 History is mostly made up of the mundane but remembered for the remarkable. For historians of Chinese diplomacy, China’s success in restoring diplomatic ties between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia might well be remembered as a turning point. The signing of the Beijing Declaration for unity by 14 Palestinian factions should have raised eyebrows further – in a most volatile region, China has succeeded in herding the cats, at least for a while. Can China build on these to become a global... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3273570/ukraine-and-gaza-chinas-great-power-comes-great-responsibility?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3273570/ukraine-and-gaza-chinas-great-power-comes-great-responsibility?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 08 Aug 2024 21:30:10 +0000 In the worst-case scenario of a China-US showdown over Taiwan, will America’s allies stand with it back to back? My answer is: not necessarily. America has over 60 allies and partners around the globe. But when it comes to a war with China, those helpful to the US won’t be more than a handful. Take Thailand for example. Since King Rama IV (1851-1868), Thailand’s foreign policy has been one of “bending with the wind”. This “bamboo diplomacy” allowed Siam to be the only Southeast Asian country to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3260241/who-can-us-really-count-war-china-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3260241/who-can-us-really-count-war-china-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 27 Apr 2024 21:30:11 +0000 With Donald Trump pulling slightly ahead of Joe Biden in some national polls as the US prepares to vote for its next president, what might America’s China policy look like if Trump is reelected? My answer is simple: a Trump 2.0 administration will look a lot like Biden’s. America’s China policy took a U-turn when Trump became president in 2017. But his major legacy is not decoupling – which Biden has continued in the name of “de-risking”. It is something ideological: a bipartisan consensus... https://www.scmp.com/comment/china-opinion/article/3255822/why-china-can-rest-easy-if-trump-re-elected-us-president?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/china-opinion/article/3255822/why-china-can-rest-easy-if-trump-re-elected-us-president?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Mar 2024 21:30:22 +0000 Much has been said about how China and India are jostling for leadership of the Global South. This is bunkum. China harbours no intention of becoming the Global South leader, and India is unlikely to become one even if it wants to. China describes itself only as “a natural member of the Global South”, in line with what it calls itself: a developing country. But while India has not yet declared itself the leader of the Global South, its ambition is hardly veiled. Last year, with New Delhi hosting... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250458/china-and-india-should-be-global-south-anchors-not-power-competitors?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250458/china-and-india-should-be-global-south-anchors-not-power-competitors?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 02 Feb 2024 01:30:11 +0000 In response to the Houthis attacking ships in the Red Sea bound for Israel, the US recently announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, a security initiative that initially included more than 20 countries, such as Bahrain, Britain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. But France, Italy and Spain have reportedly dropped out of the US-led coalition and many others decline to acknowledge their involvement. That Bahrain is the only Arab state offering public support... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3246410/how-vulnerable-china-can-resolve-its-indian-ocean-security-dilemma?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3246410/how-vulnerable-china-can-resolve-its-indian-ocean-security-dilemma?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 28 Dec 2023 21:30:15 +0000 The outcome of Israel’s sweeping invasion of Gaza is not hard to tell. Israel’s military strength is overwhelmingly superior to that of Hamas. But Hamas can hardly be wiped “off the face of the Earth”, as Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has vowed. The question is, amid mounting civilian deaths, what to do even after a ceasefire? There is no panacea to what former American president Barack Obama recently described as “century-old stuff that’s coming to the fore”. As the Israeli military... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3240812/why-un-not-israel-should-oversee-peacekeeping-and-security-gaza?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3240812/why-un-not-israel-should-oversee-peacekeeping-and-security-gaza?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 10 Nov 2023 21:30:25 +0000 What is the difference between the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas conflict? The answer is: no one knows when the former will end, while no one knows when the latter will begin again even if it ends. Can China help win peace in the Middle East? The question is asked because of the obvious limitations of the other major powers at the moment. Russia has considerable influence in the Middle East, but given that it is fighting a war of its own, with Iran believed to be one of its arms... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239703/israel-gaza-war-what-china-can-and-should-do-peace-middle-east?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3239703/israel-gaza-war-what-china-can-and-should-do-peace-middle-east?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 31 Oct 2023 21:30:22 +0000 India is growing in importance. But how much more important will it become? In the lead-up to the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi, major newspapers, billboards and bus stops in every Indian city proclaimed India as a “Vishwaguru”, or teacher to the world. This is baffling. What would India teach the world? It has never been shy to describe itself as the world’s largest democracy. But the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is increasingly being criticised as authoritarian and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235736/india-seeking-gains-us-china-rivalry-no-guru-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235736/india-seeking-gains-us-china-rivalry-no-guru-world?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 27 Sep 2023 01:30:20 +0000 No one knows how long the war in Ukraine will last. But everyone knows what the worst nightmare is: Russia unleashing nuclear weapons. The Russian leadership has repeatedly hinted at this. Russian scholars such as Sergei Karaganov and Dmitri Trenin have recently joined the chorus, calling for tactical nuclear attacks on a Nato country, say Poland, to break “the West’s will” and convince them that Russia’s nuclear threats are no bluff. By giving people pause, Russia’s nuclear deterrence seems to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3233136/ukraine-war-how-china-can-get-world-step-back-nuclear-armageddon?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3233136/ukraine-war-how-china-can-get-world-step-back-nuclear-armageddon?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 03 Sep 2023 17:00:21 +0000 When US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arrived at Beijing’s international airport on July 6, something rare appeared – a rainbow in the sky after a shower. American ambassador to China Nicolas Burns wasted no time in pointing this out to a smiling Yellen. When he met Yellen, Chinese Premier Li Qiang also mentioned the rainbow, saying, “I think there is more to China-US relations than just wind and rain…we will surely see more rainbows after going through the wind and rain.” The question is how... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228077/why-us-must-revoke-sanctions-chinas-defence-minister-now?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228077/why-us-must-revoke-sanctions-chinas-defence-minister-now?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 18 Jul 2023 16:30:23 +0000 French president Charles de Gaulle once said: “It will not be any European statesman who will unite Europe: Europe will be united by the Chinese.” He must be turning in his grave to see how Europe has been divided, rather than united, by the Chinese. On a recent joint visit to China to show European solidarity, president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron, however, seemed poles apart. Von der Leyen criticised China’s friendship with Russia and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218787/true-battleground-us-china-cold-war-will-be-europe?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3218787/true-battleground-us-china-cold-war-will-be-europe?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 01 May 2023 17:00:19 +0000 If there is one shining example of “the West vs the Rest”, it is probably the contrast between Nato and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). With 31 allies banded together, Nato is the largest military bloc in the world. Established in 2001, the SCO sits astride the Eurasian continent and accounts for almost 44 per cent of the world’s population, with trillions of dollars of exports every year. At first glance, both organisations are growing in popularity. This can be seen in Finland’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216660/can-open-inclusive-sco-prove-less-western-world-better-natos-vision?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216660/can-open-inclusive-sco-prove-less-western-world-better-natos-vision?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 12 Apr 2023 17:00:11 +0000 China’s success as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia is more than a milestone. It is also a stepping stone leading to higher expectations: can China help similarly elsewhere? In the Middle East, where it is sometimes said that the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend, there are enough troubles for Beijing to address. Being the only major power that befriends everybody thanks to its policy of non-alliance and non-interference, China can probably further help with another more... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214971/saudi-iran-deal-stepping-stone-china-its-global-role-honest-broker?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214971/saudi-iran-deal-stepping-stone-china-its-global-role-honest-broker?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Mar 2023 19:30:09 +0000 For those watching the war in Ukraine and worrying that a similar conflict might occur in the Taiwan Strait, my response is simple: it’s the South China Sea, stupid. With tensions in the Taiwan Strait rising, the South China Sea issue has seemingly died down. This is not the case. On December 21, a Chinese fighter jet and a US surveillance plane flew within metres of each other over the South China Sea. Both sides released video clips and pointed fingers at each other. The South China Sea is far... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3207845/war-taiwan-strait-its-south-china-sea-stupid?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3207845/war-taiwan-strait-its-south-china-sea-stupid?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 Jan 2023 00:15:09 +0000 Are China and the US on an inevitable collision course? One may wonder this when comparing the national security strategy issued by American President Joe Biden on October 12 with the report of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party delivered by President Xi Jinping four days later. President Biden asserted that China harbours the intention and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order and vowed to “outcompete” China. Without naming the US, President Xi... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198470/chinas-growing-global-links-show-there-no-such-thing-us-led-international-order?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3198470/chinas-growing-global-links-show-there-no-such-thing-us-led-international-order?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 07 Nov 2022 17:30:07 +0000 With China-US relations in free fall, the bare minimum needed for both powers to coexist is not to increase trust, but to avert a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, something that looks increasingly likely. Since the Trump administration, a vicious circle of action and reaction has spiralled. It culminated in August when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan despite China’s warnings. The response of the People’s Liberation Army was an unprecedented military exercise in six areas around Taiwan... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193327/avert-war-across-taiwan-strait-us-must-reinvigorate-one-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193327/avert-war-across-taiwan-strait-us-must-reinvigorate-one-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 25 Sep 2022 21:00:12 +0000 History is not always written by victors. It is equally written by losers. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is a typical example of how a self-centred egoist has gone out for wool and come home shorn. Pelosi, one of the US’ highest-ranking legislators and second in line to the presidency, has gained little more than some limelight before her retirement. Her Taiwan visit was widely considered unnecessarily provocative. Even The Washington Post, which published her op-ed explaining... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3188290/how-nancy-pelosi-changed-taiwan-strait-status-quo-beijings-favour?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3188290/how-nancy-pelosi-changed-taiwan-strait-status-quo-beijings-favour?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 11 Aug 2022 01:15:17 +0000 When the audience at a concert hears a singer hitting the highest note, they know the song is probably coming to an end. And Nato’s future will be much the same: when Sweden and Finland join – a sure thing in the near future – the 32-member transatlantic alliance may well have reached the end of its expansion. Of the other three candidates on the waiting list for Nato membership, Georgia and Ukraine’s requests appear doomed by Russia’s warring response. It remains to be seen whether Moscow would... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3186483/natos-latest-expansion-plan-could-be-beginning-end-waning-west?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3186483/natos-latest-expansion-plan-could-be-beginning-end-waning-west?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 26 Jul 2022 17:30:23 +0000 Will the United States come to defend Taiwan militarily in a war across the Taiwan Strait? This million-dollar question so far has two answers from the same administration – yes, according to US President Joe Biden when he was asked in Tokyo in late May; not necessarily, according to White House aides who quickly walked back his comment and said America’s “one China” policy had not changed. This question becomes all the more interesting if one compares Biden’s attitudes towards Moscow and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3182379/chinas-red-lines-taiwan-are-clear-whatever-us-says-about-its-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3182379/chinas-red-lines-taiwan-are-clear-whatever-us-says-about-its-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Jun 2022 19:30:13 +0000 Russia is repeatedly dropping escalatory hints about possibly using nuclear weapons. It might be bluffing, but what if it is not? Unlike the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki that sealed the surrender of Japan in World War II, if Russia opens another nuclear Pandora’s box, everyone can imagine the rest. Put yourself in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s shoes for a moment. You are convinced this is a proxy war between the United States, its Western allies and Russian forces in Ukraine.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178984/nato-and-west-must-heed-russias-warnings-avoid-nuclear-holocaust?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178984/nato-and-west-must-heed-russias-warnings-avoid-nuclear-holocaust?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 May 2022 17:30:16 +0000 Nuclear weapons look awfully important again. Given Russian President Vladimir Putin’s not-so-thinly veiled warning of a nuclear attack, it is a fool’s errand to talk about nuclear disarmament now. One can imagine that North Korea thinks it is fortunate to have developed nuclear weapons, and one can only guess which would-be nuclear state might crop up next in Asia and the Middle East. We are stepping into a nuclear jungle where nukes are like low-hanging fruit swaying enticingly. But if “a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3175183/world-needs-no-first-use-pledge-us-nato-and-russia-avoid-nuclear?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3175183/world-needs-no-first-use-pledge-us-nato-and-russia-avoid-nuclear?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 24 Apr 2022 17:30:17 +0000 Three weeks into the Ukrainian war, even if the dust – hopefully not radioactive dust – has not settled, it is already a cliché to say the world has been reshaped. We are stepping into a world with two cold wars to come. In Europe, where the war is raging on, panicking Europeans are already preparing for another cold war. The prospect of a “Russky Mir” (Russian world) has revived a “brain-dead” Nato. Germany, a country most reluctant to embark on military build-up, has reversed decades of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3170390/why-china-refusing-choose-between-russia-and-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3170390/why-china-refusing-choose-between-russia-and-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 15 Mar 2022 17:30:16 +0000 Richard Nixon may never be considered a great American leader, being the only president to resign from office, following the Watergate scandal. The legacies he left, however, are not easily forgotten: China, China, China – that is, his landmark visit to China in “the week that changed the world” in 1972; an opera titled Nixon in China; and the phrase “only Nixon could go to China”, now used to describe a political leader’s unique ability to accomplish something particularly daunting or... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3167540/50-years-after-nixons-historic-trip-us-china-relations-can-be?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3167540/50-years-after-nixons-historic-trip-us-china-relations-can-be?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 20 Feb 2022 17:30:20 +0000 The swift and decisive response by countries of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to the riots in Kazakhstan raises a question for its peer in the region, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO): can it become equally effective in a similar situation? Since the inauguration of the SCO in 2001, member states have held joint counterterrorism exercises almost annually, in line with the spirit of the group’s charter. But which country might really ask for cross-border... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3165595/sco-cannot-tackle-terrorism-eurasia-while-afghanistan-remains?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3165595/sco-cannot-tackle-terrorism-eurasia-while-afghanistan-remains?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Feb 2022 19:30:28 +0000 The joint pledge of China and the United States at the COP26 conference in Glasgow to cut emissions is like an oasis in a desert, considering their badly strained ties. But it shouldn’t be a surprise. In facing a common threat looming large over their own survival, major powers know when they need to act together. The problem of climate change raises a question: if indeed time is running out – the most important consensus of the conference – do we still have time to compete against each... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3156958/climate-crisis-threatening-us-all-time-us-china-coexistence-not?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3156958/climate-crisis-threatening-us-all-time-us-china-coexistence-not?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Nov 2021 17:30:29 +0000 The dust from the Afghan war has yet to settle but the fallout is clear. With the ending of the US global crusade on terrorism, the prelude to President Joe Biden’s “extreme competition” with China has begun. The question is: how long will it last? If the 20-year war in Afghanistan is a “forever war” for the United States, then its competition with China could be described as “forever competition”, because it will surely last longer. Gone are the days when China could “hide its strength and bide... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3150048/us-focuses-extreme-competition-china-conflict-just-step-away?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3150048/us-focuses-extreme-competition-china-conflict-just-step-away?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 27 Sep 2021 19:30:19 +0000 Much has been said about the so-called Wolf Warrior diplomacy. Rhetoric aside, the real issue is Chinese victimhood over the “century of humiliation” that started with the 1840 opium war. When Deng Xiaoping met Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in Beijing in 1989, he talked for quite some time about how China was maltreated by imperial Russia before he said “let’s put an end to the past and face the future”. In other words, he would not be able to talk about the future without first talking about... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3139624/no-more-victim-china-must-leave-its-past-behind-and-embrace-its?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3139624/no-more-victim-china-must-leave-its-past-behind-and-embrace-its?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 04 Jul 2021 17:00:13 +0000 One year has passed since a deadly brawl between Chinese and Indian troops in the Galwan Valley in the China-Indian border areas, which resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops. The aftermath is still being felt today.  Beijing was given the cold shoulder when it offered to help pandemic-devastated India. Such resentment speaks volumes of the frosty relationship, which was described by Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar as “profoundly... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3137178/china-and-india-should-look-back-move-forward-border-impasse?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3137178/china-and-india-should-look-back-move-forward-border-impasse?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 15 Jun 2021 01:15:00 +0000 India was surprised when the USS John Paul Jones, a 9,000-tonne guided missile destroyer, asserted navigational rights some 130 nautical miles west of the Lakshadweep Islands on April 7, inside India’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), without requesting prior consent. Taken aback by the suddenness of the operation, India’s Ministry of External Affairs made a mild protest, saying the operation was unauthorised. It also said its concerns had been conveyed to Washington “through diplomatic... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3132292/why-indias-maritime-interests-are-closer-china-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3132292/why-indias-maritime-interests-are-closer-china-us?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 May 2021 19:30:14 +0000 The largest question hovering over the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, grouping of the United States, Japan, Australia and India is what exactly it is. Initiated in 2007 by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the forum did little to coordinate policy in the Indo-Pacific. This is why when US President Joe Biden hosted the first virtual Quad summit on March 12 with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3127615/why-us-led-anti-china-quad-either-meaningless-or-doomed-failure?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3127615/why-us-led-anti-china-quad-either-meaningless-or-doomed-failure?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 01 Apr 2021 17:00:06 +0000 It is interesting to see how, in one month, Mars suddenly had three visitors from Earth. First, the United Arab Emirates’ probe named Amal, or Hope, arrived on February 9; a day later, China’s Tianwen-I entered Mars’ orbit. Perseverance, Nasa’s newest rover, landed on the red planet’s surface on February 18. Why can’t nations pool their resources and knowledge on such gargantuan tasks that are extremely difficult and expensive? In outer space, all issues basically boil down to two categories:... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3124789/avoid-folly-us-china-space-race-two-competitors-should-learn-some?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3124789/avoid-folly-us-china-space-race-two-competitors-should-learn-some?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 10 Mar 2021 18:30:04 +0000 Last October, US and Chinese defence officials convened their first Crisis Communications Working Group to discuss crisis prevention and management. The meeting was unusual in discussing “crisis” for the first time, rather than “accidents”. It showed that the two militaries have begun to worry about things getting out of hand when bilateral ties go into free fall. For over two decades, China-US military discussions have often been in a Catch-22 situation: Americans wanted technical discussions,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3120427/us-and-china-should-learn-cold-war-avoid-arms-race-and-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3120427/us-and-china-should-learn-cold-war-avoid-arms-race-and-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Feb 2021 19:30:16 +0000 Joe Biden has been elected 46th president of the United States. Donald Trump, his predecessor, has been impeached for a second time. Both events are good news. Looking back at the four years of the Trump administration, one might wonder why a man who made an average of 20 false and misleading claims a day and eventually incited a mob to storm the Capitol could have been elected as president of the most powerful country on Earth. Why was he supported by 74 million American voters in November’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3118489/can-president-joe-biden-ensure-americas-inevitable-decline-will-be?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3118489/can-president-joe-biden-ensure-americas-inevitable-decline-will-be?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 21 Jan 2021 17:30:17 +0000 The countries which could not wait to congratulate Joe Biden on winning the presidency are America’s allies. This should be no surprise. In the past four years, Donald Trump’s “America first” policy and his alarming words to Nato have unnerved them all. They could only rejoice to embrace a man who said: “We’re going to be back in the game. It’s not America alone.” According to the Financial Times, the European Union has recently drafted a plan to call on the United States to seize a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3112281/why-biden-will-struggle-rebuild-decaying-transatlantic-alliance?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3112281/why-biden-will-struggle-rebuild-decaying-transatlantic-alliance?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Dec 2020 19:45:06 +0000 Does a stronger China need a sphere of influence? I asked myself this question when I came across the article, “The New Spheres of Influence”, in Foreign Affairs by Harvard professor Graham Allison. Allison argues that, after the Cold War, the entire world became a de facto American sphere. But now the unipolarity is over. The United States must share its spheres of influence with other great powers such as China and Russia. I imagine for a moment where a Chinese “sphere of influence” might be.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3108284/stronger-china-has-no-reason-seek-sphere-influence-even-us-power?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3108284/stronger-china-has-no-reason-seek-sphere-influence-even-us-power?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Nov 2020 22:45:05 +0000 As the United Nations General Assembly celebrates its 75th anniversary on September 21, the question for the septuagenarian is not how to survive, but how to thrive. The UN’s importance is firstly psychological. It is older than many people and mostly taken for granted. The largest intergovernmental organisation born out of the ashes of World War II looks like a big family where things are discussed peacefully among its 193 members. This gives a feeling of assurance and protection. The best way... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3101835/amid-great-power-rivalry-un-vital-security-shelter-it-cannot-fail?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3101835/amid-great-power-rivalry-un-vital-security-shelter-it-cannot-fail?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Sep 2020 17:15:18 +0000 Has China’s foreign policy restraint ended? This is the question raised by Kurt M. Campbell and Mira Rapp-Hooper in their essay “China is done biding its time” in Foreign Affairs. They argue that since the pandemic first engulfed the world, China’s government has engaged in an unprecedented diplomatic offensive, taking advantage of the ensuing chaos and the global power vacuum left by a no-show US administration. Likewise, in a recent opinion piece in the Financial Times, Michele Flournoy, a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3094566/why-china-must-beware-less-confident-us-politically-divided-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3094566/why-china-must-beware-less-confident-us-politically-divided-and?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 27 Jul 2020 00:00:09 +0000