https://www.scmp.com/rss/323396/feed en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com As threats and signalling on the Korean peninsula continue to intensify, so too does the risk of dangerous miscalculation. While such brinkmanship can be described as rational behaviour, the strategist Thomas Schelling reminds us that the effective manipulation of risk is derived from an implicit threat that the situation might escape everyone’s control. Even if risky threats can at times cause an adversary to back down, there is also the possibility that the situation will escape human... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2110680/north-korea-nuclear-stand-highlights-dangers-miscalculation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2110680/north-korea-nuclear-stand-highlights-dangers-miscalculation?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 12 Sep 2017 06:00:45 +0000 Predictions abound regarding the future of US foreign policy under either a Clinton or Trump presidency. While much of the campaign’s rhetoric and analysis suggest that both candidates would usher in significant changes in US policy, in reality the choice between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is a choice between predictable continuity and fundamental unpredictability. This applies, in all likelihood, to the US-China relationship. While many may welcome the prospect of change, America, China... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2024628/tough-talking-loose-cannon-or-seasoned-status-quo-how-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2024628/tough-talking-loose-cannon-or-seasoned-status-quo-how-us?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 03 Oct 2016 09:50:07 +0000