https://www.scmp.com/rss/323642/feed Dr S. George Marano is the founder and principal consultant of RBV Consulting Group, a boutique strategic management consulting firm. His experience of over 20 years spans many fields, including the corporate world, government and academia, and he has a deep knowledge of international business, specialising in Asia. Furthermore, Dr Marano is a geopolitical and geoeconomics analyst who has been published widely. He holds a PhD in strategic management and international business, MBA, Master of... en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Two weeks before the US presidential election on November 5, we have Kamala Harris, who took over the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden, up against Republican contender Donald Trump, running for the third time. This presidential campaign has not been the norm, especially when we consider the extraordinary concerns over the sitting president’s faculties and the assassination attempts on Trump. The criticality of this election lies not in who wins, but in how the loser’s supporters would... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3283262/after-divisive-election-will-us-be-able-come-back-together-again?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3283262/after-divisive-election-will-us-be-able-come-back-together-again?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 22 Oct 2024 12:30:07 +0000 With Moscow’s war on Kyiv now into its third week, an asymmetry in power is in place with Russia advancing steadily and clinically against an outmatched Ukraine, taking out military assets and their supporting infrastructure. This war is very much the product of geography, history and great power rivalry. Though the notion of national sovereignty is well established, the reality is that international relations are built around power and self-interest. Critically examining this phenomenon is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3170296/why-viewing-russias-invasion-ukraine-tyrants-master-plan-naive?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3170296/why-viewing-russias-invasion-ukraine-tyrants-master-plan-naive?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 14 Mar 2022 17:30:21 +0000 The US occupation of Iraq, the second sibling in its “war on terror” has lingered for almost two decades. Its December 31 withdrawal of combat troops, replacing them with trainers and advisers, has no doubt been welcomed by most Iraqis and isolationists in Washington DC. Yet, China’s increasing footprint in Iraq, Russian military resurgence in the Middle East, Iran and the power of the “Shia Crescent”, along with the possible resurgence of Islamic State are all threats to the US, meaning not... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3164268/china-russia-and-iran-waiting-wings-can-america-really-leave-iraq?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3164268/china-russia-and-iran-waiting-wings-can-america-really-leave-iraq?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 23 Jan 2022 17:30:17 +0000 The Central Committee’s sixth plenary session in Beijing paved the way for a third term for President Xi Jinping. Some Western commentators see this as a power grab or a way to seek leadership for life, but the truth is much more complicated. China’s constitution, which had previously allowed only two terms for sitting leaders, was changed in 2018 amid overwhelming support from the National People’s Congress. This was more an indication of the expected geopolitical turbulence than self-centric... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3157398/why-third-term-president-xi-jinping-makes-sense-pragmatic-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3157398/why-third-term-president-xi-jinping-makes-sense-pragmatic-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 27 Nov 2021 22:45:19 +0000 The end of the US war in Afghanistan has invoked memories of its defeat in Vietnam, with the optics eerily similar. While the United States in 1975 was still the emergent power, much has changed since then, and mostly for the worst. Playing a primary role in the US decline has been the 50-odd years of neoliberalism. This economic system of free-market capitalism has, over time, corrupted the political, military and social aspects that made the US a superpower. The desperate scenes of Afghan... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3153644/china-rises-can-us-arrest-its-own-destruction?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3153644/china-rises-can-us-arrest-its-own-destruction?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 26 Oct 2021 17:30:20 +0000 With the rise of China, geopolitically as well as economically, the unipolar moment of US global domination appears to be fading. Washington and its allies have caused great enmity across the globe with the myopic belief that America’s sole superpower status is infinite, and its centrality permanent. With military adventurism and predatory capitalism, the West has created the conditions that have allowed China to slowly convert aggrieved nations into allies, increasing its geopolitical... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3148309/sino-us-power-struggle-not-chinas-win-wests-lose?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3148309/sino-us-power-struggle-not-chinas-win-wests-lose?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 12 Sep 2021 17:30:23 +0000 Time and again, predictions of the Communist Party’s impending doom have come to nothing as its form of political governance has not only endured but thrived. The party has created a system that has rewritten China’s economic and social record in a short period of time. While success of this formula is unique to China, it will not remain within China alone. The allure of its mode of political governance will be akin to the gravitational pull towards Chinese trade – whether Beijing likes it or... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3141937/why-chinas-governance-model-will-be-exported-whether-beijing-likes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3141937/why-chinas-governance-model-will-be-exported-whether-beijing-likes?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 22 Jul 2021 01:15:16 +0000 In step with China’s evolution from a poor country to the world’s largest economy in waiting, it has amplified its projection of power to a new level. It is evident from the bilateral meeting with the United States in Alaska last month that a new, more assertive China has emerged. As China overtakes the US as the world’s biggest economy, an even greater level of power projection will be on display, and those who get in Beijing’s crosshairs will feel its full wrath: two of the most visible... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3131423/chinas-coming-economic-ascendancy-how-will-us-react?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3131423/chinas-coming-economic-ascendancy-how-will-us-react?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 29 Apr 2021 19:30:11 +0000 As the US presidential election looms and the battle for the soul of America awaits, this election promises to be like no other. Despite the pandemic, social unrest and four years of unorthodoxy in the White House, the lead-up to November will show President Donald Trump convincing the electorate to give him another four years, even against his litany of failures. It will be Trump’s exposure of rival Joe Biden’s weaknesses that should sway voters towards a second term for himself. Deficits in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3099131/four-more-years-why-america-likely-vote-donald-trump-after-all?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3099131/four-more-years-why-america-likely-vote-donald-trump-after-all?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Aug 2020 17:30:12 +0000 When the coronavirus pandemic is all done and dusted, one of the lessons learned will be the fragility of our global trading system. As the pandemic unfolds, nations will have to seriously reflect on their adopted economic models. Our current economic orthodoxy has encouraged a dispersed trading system that is built on an excess of opportunism at the expense of attention to risk.   The validity of these models, which are currently showing signs of system failure, should be reassessed. While... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3077879/lessons-coronavirus-pandemic-will-show-our-economic-models-are?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3077879/lessons-coronavirus-pandemic-will-show-our-economic-models-are?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 Apr 2020 08:00:14 +0000 President Donald Trump’s election promise of withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan has been on-again, off-again for quite some time. In its latest iteration, a proposed detente with the Taliban is being discussed, which, if successful, would provide the political capital needed for his 2020 re-election. While sounding logical, considering the 18 years of war, a US departure from Afghanistan would create a geopolitical reconfiguration detrimental to the US and favourable to China. As US... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3041372/us-exit-afghanistan-would-leave-way-clear-china-increase-its?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3041372/us-exit-afghanistan-would-leave-way-clear-china-increase-its?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 10 Dec 2019 17:00:14 +0000 The trade war between the United States and China is not going as planned for the Trump administration, with tariffs and investment controls proving ineffective in bringing China to heel. Given that a new front is needed in what is expected to be a long and protracted battle, do not be surprised if the Trump administration revives the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The trade war is at an impasse, with no side able to claim any sort of victory. Though China is slowing economically, the major... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3035608/trump-has-one-more-weapon-his-us-china-trade-war-arsenal-trans?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3035608/trump-has-one-more-weapon-his-us-china-trade-war-arsenal-trans?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 04 Nov 2019 03:00:14 +0000 Much is being discussed with regard to the US and China seeking a resolution to the ongoing trade war. With representatives meeting, commentators seem optimistic about a solution. Though the optics look encouraging, any agreements should be viewed as short-lived. A resumption of harsher measures, especially from the US, is the most likely scenario. First, this trade war should be viewed as a tactic in the overall China containment strategy; the ultimate aim of the US is to halt China’s rise. Yet... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2182088/all-out-trade-war-between-china-and-us-leaves?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2182088/all-out-trade-war-between-china-and-us-leaves?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 15 Jan 2019 17:00:00 +0000 In a previous article, I hypothesised that if a US-China trade war were to happen, China would come out of it much better than the United States. My argument was based on economic and social factors that gave China an advantage over the US. What has unfolded since has been tariffs on key Chinese and US exports in a tit-for-tat encounter. Overall, the US as the instigator was on the offensive and all China had to do was resist. And it did, which meant this endeavour has been a big loss for the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2147350/donald-trumps-trade-war-china-has-not-done-us-any-favours-so?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2147350/donald-trumps-trade-war-china-has-not-done-us-any-favours-so?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 23 May 2018 05:00:45 +0000 As the Trump administration gets ready to take office, much has been said about unfair trade with China and the threats of a trade war. Such posturing, if it becomes reality, would be disastrous for the US. It would mean serious profit downgrades for US companies, while the world would have to choose between business with China or politics with the US. The indirect effect of slower growth in China would also have devastating consequences on its trading partners. Finally, Beijing would be spurred... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2062736/china-will-be-clear-winner-if-trump-declares-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2062736/china-will-be-clear-winner-if-trump-declares-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 17 Jan 2017 07:18:38 +0000 A signature policy of Donald Trump’s campaign for US president was his trillion-dollar plan to fix America’s ailing infrastructure through a public-private partnership model, which resonated well with voters. But the realities of his ambitious plan to “make America great again” in this regard will require much support from China, both financial and material. Policy rhetoric must make way for political reality. If a person is voted in on a wave of populism, promises must be met quickly or voter... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2049722/china-can-unlock-trumps-trillion-dollar-infrastructure-plan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2049722/china-can-unlock-trumps-trillion-dollar-infrastructure-plan?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 28 Nov 2016 06:50:10 +0000