https://www.scmp.com/rss/323688/feed Aidan Yao is a senior investment strategist for Asia at Amundi, based in Hong Kong. Prior to joining Amundi in October 2024, he was chief economist, global macro, investment strategy and asset allocation research at Long Shine Asset Management in Hong Kong. Before that, he spent 10 years at AXA Investment Managers serving as senior emerging Asia economist. From 2011 to 2013, he held a managerial role in the research department at Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Aidan holds a master’s degree in... en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com The re-election of Donald Trump to the US presidency could further strain an already tense Sino-US relationship. It was the president-elect’s disapproval of existing trade rules that led to escalating tariffs and sanctions on China and, together with retaliatory responses from Beijing, sparked the trade war in 2018. Those frictions have since expanded to technology, investment and financial areas, resulting in progressive “decoupling” of the world’s two largest economies. Trump has a deep... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3289343/if-china-wants-beat-trumps-tariffs-change-must-come-within?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3289343/if-china-wants-beat-trumps-tariffs-change-must-come-within?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 07 Dec 2024 08:30:08 +0000 The latest economic data for August shows some tentative signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy. Virtually all activity indicators surprised on the upside, with some even pointing to sequential growth acceleration. Notably, retail sales growth almost doubled to 4.6 per cent, while export growth contraction eased by almost half to minus 8.8 per cent. Industrial production growth quickened by 0.8 percentage points to 4.5 per cent. The faster recovery in demand than supply points to a more... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235881/why-consumption-stimulus-still-chinas-best-option-revive-its-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235881/why-consumption-stimulus-still-chinas-best-option-revive-its-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 27 Sep 2023 07:30:08 +0000 China’s real estate market has been undergoing its longest and deepest adjustment since the 1998 reform that gave birth to the commodity housing market. As a pillar industry with extensive reach, the property market woes of the past two years have greatly affected the economy, depressed asset markets and weighed on confidence. Many foreign investors consider it the biggest macroeconomic risk to Chinese assets. However, as this painful adjustment reaches its second anniversary, there is the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231240/fixing-chinas-property-sector-will-take-social-housing-not-new-market-boom?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231240/fixing-chinas-property-sector-will-take-social-housing-not-new-market-boom?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 17 Aug 2023 22:15:11 +0000 Recent data for the second quarter provides comprehensive evidence that China’s post-pandemic economic recovery has run its course. Nearly all data points missed market expectations despite year-on-year growth accelerating from the low base induced by nationwide lockdowns. If there were any remaining doubts, the numbers have put a nail in the coffin on the debate over the state of China’s economy and whether Beijing needs to take action to halt the slide. A few aspects stood out as particularly... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229617/china-economy-beijing-must-follow-words-action-restore-growth-and-confidence?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229617/china-economy-beijing-must-follow-words-action-restore-growth-and-confidence?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 02 Aug 2023 19:30:13 +0000 Growing speculation around attempts to shore up local government finances suggests that Beijing is finally starting to tackle one of the chronic ills in the Chinese economy. Local government debt had swollen to almost 38 trillion yuan (US$4.8 trillion) at the end of May this year. More worrying is the hidden debt amassed by a vast number of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), which surged to a record 66 trillion yuan at the end of last year, according to the International Monetary Fund.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3227234/chinas-economy-needs-swift-action-avert-local-government-debt-disaster?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3227234/chinas-economy-needs-swift-action-avert-local-government-debt-disaster?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 11 Jul 2023 07:45:11 +0000 Investors are growing impatient with the lack of a policy response to China’s faltering economy. Onshore equities have retraced almost all their gains from the first half of the month, while offshore equities have fallen almost 7 per cent from their month-to-date peak. The insufficient follow-through on Beijing’s hints about a comprehensive stimulus package has dimmed hopes for a fast turnaround of the world’s second-largest economy. So what is holding Beijing back from taking the necessary... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3225503/why-china-cant-afford-wait-and-see-about-economic-stimulus?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3225503/why-china-cant-afford-wait-and-see-about-economic-stimulus?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 27 Jun 2023 16:30:10 +0000 With the property market in renewed distress, exports succumbing to soft external demand and households reluctant to spend, the Chinese economy is in desperate need of help. Yet, Beijing has so far not come to the economy’s rescue in a substantial fashion, although the seven-day reverse repo rate cut on June 13 could be the start of a more active response. Unlike in many developed economies, where inflation is substantially above central bank targets, inflation isn’t what is holding Beijing... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3223817/2-unconventional-ideas-how-revive-chinas-flagging-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3223817/2-unconventional-ideas-how-revive-chinas-flagging-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 13 Jun 2023 16:30:10 +0000 After staging a powerful rally at the tail end of the Year of the Tiger, the Year of the Rabbit has so far not delivered the continued prosperity hoped for by equity market investors. However, remember that the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China Index gained almost 50 per cent in past three months, so some profit-taking leading to a pause in the breakneck rally is not entirely surprising. Looking more broadly, the structural underpinning of the equity market rise remains intact. From a macro... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3209365/never-mind-dip-chinas-reopening-driven-stock-market-rally-real-deal?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3209365/never-mind-dip-chinas-reopening-driven-stock-market-rally-real-deal?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 08 Feb 2023 07:45:10 +0000 China has entered 2023 with trepidation. While the abrupt end to the zero-Covid strategy has boosted market confidence in better economic conditions ahead, it has also cost society, with the public health system under significant pressure amid surging infections. With the situation still very fluid, any forecasts need to be constantly revisited as conditions evolve. The situation is murky from a public health standpoint. The halting of daily data updates on Covid-19 cases and deaths has left the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205910/zero-covid-ends-abruptly-chinas-economy-living-its-darkest-hours-dawn?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205910/zero-covid-ends-abruptly-chinas-economy-living-its-darkest-hours-dawn?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Jan 2023 04:30:10 +0000 A 20-point plan to recalibrate China’s pandemic response – followed by additional 10 measures announced last week – marks the beginning of the end of the zero- Covid policy. In fact, steps towards reopening have quickened after social protests across the country suggested diminishing public support for the rigid controls that have been in place for three years. Beijing is likely to have used this shift in public opinion to accelerate the policy exit, paving the way for an eventual reopening of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3203019/chinas-zero-covid-exit-and-reopening-will-be-neither-smooth-nor-swift?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3203019/chinas-zero-covid-exit-and-reopening-will-be-neither-smooth-nor-swift?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 14 Dec 2022 11:30:11 +0000 Following last week’s Politburo meeting, the Chinese government announced a sweeping revamp of its Covid-19 response, containing extensive changes ranging from quarantine arrangements and Covid-19 risk identification, to vaccination, use of antiviral drugs and implementation of social and mobility restrictions. The changes are comprehensive and specific. The key measures can be summarised in four categories: On quarantine: close contacts of confirmed cases are now subject to a “5+3” arrangement... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199745/china-must-keep-its-resolve-ease-covid-19-rules-and-reopen-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199745/china-must-keep-its-resolve-ease-covid-19-rules-and-reopen-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Nov 2022 08:30:10 +0000 A sweeping ban on the sale of semiconductors and advanced chips to China marks a further escalation in an already tense Sino-US relationship. To be clear, tech frictions between the two countries are not new – many Chinese tech firms have been placed on the US entity list in recent years, restricting them from using US technology or operating in that market. The stated US intention is to prevent sensitive technology with military applications from being acquired by China. However, the latest... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3196035/why-accelerated-us-china-tech-decoupling-truly-worrying?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3196035/why-accelerated-us-china-tech-decoupling-truly-worrying?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 19 Oct 2022 16:30:09 +0000 The US and European economies have staged impressive post-pandemic recoveries, but both are now showing signs of significant fatigue. The slowdown has been driven in part by food and energy price shocks that required their respective central banks to withdraw policy stimulus to quell multi-decade high inflation. With the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank now undertaking tightening in slowing economies, fears of policy overshoot and economic hard landings have risen. Slowing demand in two... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193031/how-us-and-european-recession-risks-could-play-out-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193031/how-us-and-european-recession-risks-could-play-out-china?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 Sep 2022 19:30:07 +0000 The unfolding crisis in China’s real estate market has put tremendous pressure on an economy already struggling against the Covid-19 pandemic. The easing of local policies has so far failed to arrest the market decline, and Beijing has shown little appetite for altering its stance of “housing is for living, not speculation”. How can China get out of this mess? There are three areas of policy action necessary to get the market on a sustainable path. First, there must be a short-term focus on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3189880/how-china-can-avoid-property-market-disaster-without-having-bail?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3189880/how-china-can-avoid-property-market-disaster-without-having-bail?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Aug 2022 03:30:16 +0000 Fears of receding central bank liquidity and risks of a recession have curbed investors’ enthusiasm for holding risky assets, resulting in large drawdowns in global equity markets this year. At the centre of the shifting liquidity paradigm, an increasingly hawkish US Federal Reserve has committed to an aggressive interest-rate-rise agenda to tame inflation, which currently stands at a 40-year high. The Fed’s operation, which includes shrinking its balance sheet, is expected to significantly... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183322/how-2022-shaping-be-year-redemption-chinese-equities?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183322/how-2022-shaping-be-year-redemption-chinese-equities?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 29 Jun 2022 17:30:19 +0000 A confluence of adverse forces has made investing in China challenging in the past 15 months. The brutal selling in certain parts of the equity and credit markets has eroded asset values at a speed and scale rivalling some of the worst market drawdowns in recent history. Confidence has depleted, so much so that some investors have started to question the investment potential of the Chinese markets. “Is China still investible?” has, therefore, become a serious question to ponder. Answering it may... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3179732/fears-china-has-become-uninvestible-are-overblown-it-not-russia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3179732/fears-china-has-become-uninvestible-are-overblown-it-not-russia?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 Jun 2022 08:30:13 +0000 China is battling its worst Covid-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic. Total case numbers have risen to 733,000 since early March, almost nine times the number in the initial wave. At the epicentre of the outbreak, infection numbers in Shanghai have remained stubbornly high despite the citywide lockdown having lasted for more than a month. The economic costs of strictly adhering to the “zero Covid” strategy are mounting. The notable deterioration in activity data in March offered a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176445/why-china-reluctant-live-covid-its-not-just-politics?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176445/why-china-reluctant-live-covid-its-not-just-politics?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 May 2022 01:15:17 +0000 A vicious flare-up of Covid-19 cases is presenting China with its toughest public health challenge since the onset of the pandemic. With more than 38,500 confirmed cases and 70,600 asymptomatic cases accumulatively, March 2022 was the single biggest month of reported coronavirus infections, outstripping February 2020’s 69,500. While these numbers still look tame relative to those of developed countries which have long given up fighting the virus, they are shockingly large for China with its... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3173112/china-cant-escape-economic-pain-its-zero-covid-policy-case-numbers?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3173112/china-cant-escape-economic-pain-its-zero-covid-policy-case-numbers?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Apr 2022 08:30:13 +0000 A sudden collapse of China’s housing market has added to a long list of struggles facing the economy since 2021. Many see these woes as self-inflicted, a result of Beijing’s draconian policies. They remain baffled by officials’ insistence on continuing the curbs despite severe stress reverberating across the economy and markets. Given the colossal size of the real estate sector, Beijing is taking a major risk with systemic stability by continuing its punitive actions. Our estimates about the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3169651/why-beijing-determined-maintain-its-hardline-property-policies?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3169651/why-beijing-determined-maintain-its-hardline-property-policies?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 09 Mar 2022 08:30:13 +0000 Global investors ended 2021 with mixed feelings. While a strong and synchronised economic recovery, coupled with generous central bank liquidity, helped propel markets higher, there are still questions that leave many people apprehensive about what lies ahead. For a start, Covid-19 is still with us. Not long after its discovery, the Omicron variant has become the dominant strain in many countries, with a record number of infections across Europe and North America. Despite its comparatively mild... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3162915/value-seeking-investors-could-make-china-source-market-rally-2022?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3162915/value-seeking-investors-could-make-china-source-market-rally-2022?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 12 Jan 2022 08:30:18 +0000 This has been an unusual year for the Chinese economy. As it recovered from the most catastrophic shock in modern history, annual growth rates in the first half appeared buoyant but mostly reflected favourable base effects. As the year progressed, the economy was battered by a series of natural and man-made shocks. Resurgences of Covid-19, severe flooding, a cooling housing market, soaring commodity prices and a severe power shortage all took their toll on the post-pandemic rebound that was... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3157854/how-china-can-get-its-economy-back-track-after-2021-battering?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3157854/how-china-can-get-its-economy-back-track-after-2021-battering?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 01 Dec 2021 08:30:24 +0000 The recent regulatory changes in China’s property sector – characterised by “red lines” and a forthcoming property tax – suggest that the nature of the market crackdown this time is different from past episodes. However, an abrupt change of expectation for such a large part of the economy and financial system is risky. Beijing, therefore, has a delicate task on its hands and needs to proceed cautiously. While deleveraging certainly remains a high priority, with property still a significant... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3154576/chinas-property-market-crackdown-how-concerned-should-investors-be?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3154576/chinas-property-market-crackdown-how-concerned-should-investors-be?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Nov 2021 00:00:15 +0000 While mid-autumn should still bring plenty of warm sunlight, winter appears to have descended early on the Chinese economy. A combination of renewed virus outbreaks, a cooling housing market and spreading power shortages is weighing on the economy that was already struggling under macro policy normalisation. Even with buoyant exports – the only engine of the economy still functioning properly – a double dip in growth now looks likely in the third quarter. Investors are holding out hope of a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3151262/winter-comes-early-chinas-economy-beijing-must-focus-short-term?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3151262/winter-comes-early-chinas-economy-beijing-must-focus-short-term?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Oct 2021 06:30:14 +0000 As China embarks on a transition from a growth-first development model to one of balanced growth and equality, it is trying to ensure that wealth redistribution does not undermine the importance of wealth creation. As a developing country, with per capita income less than one-fifth of the United States’, China cannot afford to abandon its growth objective and become a full welfare state. Finding an optimal balance between “dual circulation”, which aims to grow the pie, and “common prosperity”,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3147859/china-moves-towards-common-prosperity-it-must-not-take-its-eye?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3147859/china-moves-towards-common-prosperity-it-must-not-take-its-eye?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 08 Sep 2021 06:30:11 +0000 The Chinese government has been busy sweeping through the country’s technology, fintech and for-profit education industries with regulatory changes in the past few months. This series of actions has prompted some confusion over Beijing’s intent, which seems to contradict the country’s long-term strategy of building a hi-tech and knowledge-based economy. While it’s hard to pinpoint the endgame, as the policy landscape is still in flux, it’s not impossible to trace the rationale behind some of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3144390/chinas-crackdown-tech-and-tutoring-really-directed-inequality?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3144390/chinas-crackdown-tech-and-tutoring-really-directed-inequality?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 11 Aug 2021 08:30:07 +0000 The meteoric rise of the Chinese economy over the past 40 years would not have been possible without the stellar success of its export-driven growth model. While the economy has rebalanced away from export expansion in recent years, there is no let-up on its trade competitiveness. The country’s position as the “world’s factory” has strengthened despite a structural increase in production costs, and recent events such as the US-China trade war and the Covid-19 pandemic, both of which could have... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3140951/why-china-still-worlds-factory-only-upgraded?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3140951/why-china-still-worlds-factory-only-upgraded?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 14 Jul 2021 14:00:09 +0000 China’s latest census data, along with the announcement of the three-child policy, has turned the spotlight on the country’s demographic situation again. And the picture isn’t pretty. For starters, the country only narrowly escaped the fate of seeing a population decline. Contrary to fears that China’s population had dropped below 1.4 billion, the latest census data showed continued growth, although the population increase over the past decade – 72 million – was the smallest since the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3137357/four-ways-chinas-economy-can-rise-population-challenge?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3137357/four-ways-chinas-economy-can-rise-population-challenge?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Jun 2021 08:30:00 +0000 There have been two major themes driving market dynamics lately. One is inflation, which affects interest rate expectations, central bank policy stances and, in turn, asset price valuations. The other is the pandemic, which is exacerbating the K-shaped recovery between those who have successfully contained the virus and those who are still struggling because of their inability to halt its spread or vaccinate a large swathe of the population to reach herd immunity. In the case of India, Covid-19... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3133897/covid-19-persisting-and-inflation-outlook-uncertain-investors?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3133897/covid-19-persisting-and-inflation-outlook-uncertain-investors?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 19 May 2021 06:30:15 +0000 While China may be late to the global game of eliminating carbon emissions, its commitment is an ambitious one – to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.  As the world’s largest emitter, China’s goal will require trillions of yuan in new investments to revamp its carbon-intensive economy and energy system over the coming four decades. The green bond market in China, developed to mobilise private-sector resources to facilitate this transformation, has tremendous growth potential. For global... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3130295/despite-risks-chinas-green-bonds-will-prove-rewarding-global?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3130295/despite-risks-chinas-green-bonds-will-prove-rewarding-global?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 22 Apr 2021 00:45:15 +0000 China’s economy started 2021 on an uneven footing. In the first two months, the supply-side recovery continued, with industrial and manufacturing production gaining further steam thanks to strong external demand and less Lunar New Year holiday disruption because of this year’s “stay put” policy. In contrast, retail sales and investment, outside real estate, were hit by an unusually cold winter and tighter mobility restrictions following a resurgence in Covid-19 cases before the Lunar New Year.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3126730/chinas-economic-recovery-going-strong-despite-slight-hiccup?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3126730/chinas-economic-recovery-going-strong-despite-slight-hiccup?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Mar 2021 06:30:08 +0000 Growth momentum moderated in early 2021 after the Chinese economy ending the Year of the Rat on a high note. A new wave of Covid-19 hit the northern part of the country, creating heightened alerts and renewed social restrictions before the Lunar New Year.  Manufacturing and service-sector growth weakened visibly in January, with purchasing managers index levels falling from multi-year highs. Nationwide transport data showed that pre-holiday travel volumes were more than 70 per cent below normal... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3122820/coronavirus-recovery-china-still-course-monetary-policy-tapering?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3122820/coronavirus-recovery-china-still-course-monetary-policy-tapering?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Feb 2021 07:45:13 +0000 With a strong, consensus-beating rebound in the fourth quarter of 2020, China became the only major economy to register an expansion (2.3 per cent) last year. Industrial production, investment and exports all recorded solid gains. But consumer spending remained the weak spot, with recovery complicated by the resurgence of coronavirus infections and increased public caution ahead of the Lunar New Year. This could ease pressure on the People’s Bank of China to normalise policy quickly. Yet, such a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3119334/coronavirus-resurgence-china-will-be-mere-hiccup-countrys-economic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3119334/coronavirus-resurgence-china-will-be-mere-hiccup-countrys-economic?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 27 Jan 2021 09:15:09 +0000 China and the EU have managed to wrap up 2020 by signing a long-awaited deal, the landmark Comprehensive Agreement on Investment. Since then, responses from both parties have been in stark contrast. China’s interpretation of the agreement is unequivocally positive. The agreement – along with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed earlier – will allow China to further liberalise and reform its domestic economy, opening it up to the European Union and the rest of the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3117428/china-eu-investment-deal-must-fight-scepticism-reach-full-economic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3117428/china-eu-investment-deal-must-fight-scepticism-reach-full-economic?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 13 Jan 2021 08:45:13 +0000 The recent signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) between Asia-Pacific nations marks an encouraging reversal to the rising trend of trade protectionism and deglobalisation. The deal has created the world’s largest trading bloc that accounts for roughly a third of the world’s population, gross domestic product and trade volume, helping accelerate the regional economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. RCEP is by no means a perfect deal. Compared to the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3113984/how-rcep-will-boost-asian-integration-trade-supply-chains-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3113984/how-rcep-will-boost-asian-integration-trade-supply-chains-and?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Dec 2020 09:00:09 +0000 This year will go down in history as one of the most challenging for the global economy since World War II. A major public health crisis, triggered by a deadly virus, quickly turned into an economic disaster as governments around the world took drastic measures to restrict social mobility and shut down large portions of the economy. At the initial epicentre of the pandemic, China implemented the strictest lockdown of all and saw its economy judder to a halt. Fortunately, the sacrifice was not in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3112102/chinas-economy-powers-whats-growth-outlook-2021?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3112102/chinas-economy-powers-whats-growth-outlook-2021?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 02 Dec 2020 07:20:24 +0000 Global markets breathed a sigh of relief as the US presidential election turned out to be less messy than feared. Even though the sitting president still has not conceded at the time of writing, the market seems to be certain enough about who will oversee the White House after January 20. Despite all the legal challenges and political noise, investors have moved on to other matters affecting the global economy, such as the pandemic and the development of Covid-19 vaccines. However, the impact of... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3110058/bidens-path-china-and-us-economic-recovery-likely-be-similar-trumps?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3110058/bidens-path-china-and-us-economic-recovery-likely-be-similar-trumps?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 18 Nov 2020 14:00:15 +0000 China’s third-quarter GDP data provided comfort for investors that its “first in, first out” economy is continuing to lead the global recovery from the coronavirus-induced slump. Not only did the economy retain a decent amount of momentum from the second quarter’s V-shaped rebound, high-frequency data showed that the recovery had also gained more breath and balance. Sectors which led the recovery – such as industrial production, investment and exports – saw growth largely returning to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3108196/chinas-roaring-economy-has-sparked-yuan-rally-it-may-not-last?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3108196/chinas-roaring-economy-has-sparked-yuan-rally-it-may-not-last?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 04 Nov 2020 08:45:12 +0000 With less than two weeks to go, the US presidential race has entered its final phase. Although Donald Trump is fighting an uphill battle and trailing Joe Biden in the polls, the sitting US president still has a lot of power to surprise. A late comeback like the one he made four years ago will be difficult this time, but not impossible. But with the diverging performance of the two candidates, the market’s attention is increasingly turning to and focusing on two issues beyond the presidential... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3106305/trump-or-biden-how-different-us-election-outcomes-could-play-out?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3106305/trump-or-biden-how-different-us-election-outcomes-could-play-out?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 Oct 2020 16:30:14 +0000 China’s economic performance throughout the Covid-19 crisis has set it apart from the crowd. Not only was the initial rebound quite impressive, the growth momentum has been maintained as recently shown by purchasing managers index data, in stark contrast to other major economies that are still struggling to escape the grip of the pandemic. If the strength and breath of the recovery continues, the market will soon have to upgrade its growth forecasts again, further widening the gap between China... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3104389/what-investors-should-understand-about-chinas-dual-circulation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3104389/what-investors-should-understand-about-chinas-dual-circulation?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 07 Oct 2020 21:30:08 +0000 China’s blockbuster August data shows that the country’s economic recovery has gained further strength after its V-shaped rebound in the second quarter. All major activity indicators beat market expectations, with industrial output growing 5.6 per cent year on year, and a 0.8 percentage point rise from July, bouncing back to its pre-crisis level much faster than anticipated. Also impressive was the fact retail sales registered their first year-on-year gain, 0.5 per cent, in 2020, rebounding 1.6... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3102549/coronavirus-recovery-what-chinas-blockbuster-august-economic-data?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3102549/coronavirus-recovery-what-chinas-blockbuster-august-economic-data?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 23 Sep 2020 19:30:06 +0000 The US Federal Reserve’s shift to average inflation targeting is a historic policy move that grants the central bank more discretion in responding to a weaker economy than it does when inflation and employment overshoot the targets. At the Fed’s recent economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed chair Jerome Powell announced the conclusion of a review of the bank’s monetary policy framework. The review settled on three changes to the Fed’s medium-term policy framework: flexible... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3100713/coronavirus-recovery-feds-inflation-shift-could-be-good-news-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3100713/coronavirus-recovery-feds-inflation-shift-could-be-good-news-china?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 09 Sep 2020 19:30:11 +0000 With less than three months to go until the US presidential election, the anti-China train in Washington is roaring full steam ahead. From bans on Huawei, TikTok and WeChat to recommendations to delist US-listed Chinese companies and cancellation of trade talks – not to mention military drills in the South China Sea and sanctions on Hong Kong officials over the national security law – US President Donald Trump has well and truly gone out of his way to make China-bashing his top policy priority... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3098746/us-china-trade-war-who-really-bleeding-more-donald-trumps-tariffs?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3098746/us-china-trade-war-who-really-bleeding-more-donald-trumps-tariffs?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 26 Aug 2020 19:30:06 +0000 Tensions between Washington and Beijing have ratcheted up after the Trump administration ordered a ban on TikTok and tried to force the sale of the popular Chinese video app to Microsoft. Following the blacklisting of ZTE, Huawei and other Chinese firms, TikTok is another victim caught in the crossfire of escalating US-China confrontations. While the fate of the company hangs in the balance, one thing for sure is that TikTok won’t be the last casualty in the US-China rivalry for technology... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3096877/chinas-role-global-supply-chains-will-change-probably-not-overnight?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3096877/chinas-role-global-supply-chains-will-change-probably-not-overnight?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 12 Aug 2020 19:30:14 +0000 China’s better-than-expected second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed that its economy has rebounded from rock bottom, leading the rest of the world out of the ravages of Covid-19. Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth expanded by 11.5 per cent after a 10 per cent contraction in the first quarter, giving it the appearance of a V-shaped recovery, which few thought possible just a few months ago. Underneath the solid headline, however, lies a multi-speed recovery across the different sectors of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3095002/why-china-not-gunning-roaring-economic-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3095002/why-china-not-gunning-roaring-economic-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 29 Jul 2020 09:00:12 +0000 The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed several fault lines in the world that existed before the crisis struck. The widening income gap between rich and poor, the rising political divide between the incumbent leader and rising power, and the enduring wedge between the real economy and financial markets, have all been exacerbated by this once-in-a-generation public health crisis. Amid the immense shock, central banks have taken unprecedented steps to prevent the global economy from collapsing into... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/3093117/zero-interest-rates-heavy-debt-will-be-new-normal-coronavirus-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/3093117/zero-interest-rates-heavy-debt-will-be-new-normal-coronavirus-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Jul 2020 14:00:12 +0000 The Covid-19 crisis has accelerated a number of transformations around the world that were already happening before the pandemic struck. These can be summarised as three “decouplings”. The first is a decoupling between the rich and poor. The share of income of the top 1 per cent of the US population has doubled, from 10 per cent to 20 per cent, since the 1970s, while the share of the bottom 50 per cent has declined from 20 per cent to 12 per cent. Europe saw a similar trend of widening income... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3091177/coronavirus-crisis-speeds-economic-political-and-social-decoupling?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3091177/coronavirus-crisis-speeds-economic-political-and-social-decoupling?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Jul 2020 01:30:07 +0000 The Chinese economy has been confronted by great challenges over the past two years. The US-China trade war and the Covid-19 pandemic have not only caused short-term shocks but are also leaving lingering long-term questions. Perhaps the most important of these questions is whether the supply chain fragility that has been exposed – whether as a result of tit-for-tat trade tariffs, or production disruption during the pandemic – will prompt multinational companies to shift their production out of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3089275/why-coronavirus-may-not-make-big-dent-supply-chains-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3089275/why-coronavirus-may-not-make-big-dent-supply-chains-china?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 17 Jun 2020 13:00:12 +0000 The recently concluded National People’s Congress meetings delivered two important economic messages. First, Beijing has placed job and social stability ahead of an explicit growth target as this year’s economic priority. Second, fulfilling these objectives will not be easy and will require policy easing to fend off negative forces to keep the economy on an even keel. However, not announcing a growth target does not mean the authorities will accept any growth rate. A back-of-the-envelope... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3087051/chinas-clear-message-jobs-and-stability-now-take-lead-economic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3087051/chinas-clear-message-jobs-and-stability-now-take-lead-economic?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Jun 2020 13:00:11 +0000 There are three phases in China’s economic evolution as it weathers the Covid-19 pandemic. The first was the initial “plunge”, reflected in the economic paralysis caused by the rapid spread of the virus and Beijing’s draconian measures to contain it. Gross domestic product contracted by a record-setting 6.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, making the peak-to-trough decline – from growth of 6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019 to the current contraction – almost three times the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3085098/weak-demand-now-stands-way-chinas-economic-recovery-coronavirus?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3085098/weak-demand-now-stands-way-chinas-economic-recovery-coronavirus?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 May 2020 21:00:06 +0000 Despite having recovered from its trough, the Chinese economy is not in a safe place yet. Not only is the global economy about to fall off a cliff, which will send shock waves back to China, the domestic labour market is also showing signs of cracks. Labour market weakness could be a key source of second-order effects of the pandemic and is therefore worth monitoring to gauge the eventual shape of the economic recovery. However, the lack of good-quality and time-series data has hindered our... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3082969/china-must-act-fast-avert-disaster-mass-unemployment-amid?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3082969/china-must-act-fast-avert-disaster-mass-unemployment-amid?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 May 2020 12:00:09 +0000