https://www.scmp.com/rss/323880/feed Ankit Panda is an Adjunct Senior Fellow in the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists, a Senior Editor at The Diplomat, an online magazine on Asia-Pacific affairs, and a Contributing Editor at War on the Rocks. Panda is an award-winning writer and a frequently cited analyst on geopolitical and security issues in the Asia-Pacific. His writing has appeared in The Diplomat, The Atlantic, The Daily Beast, Politico Magazine, and War on the Rocks, among other publications. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com For the final weeks of 2019 and into the new year, China and Indonesia have been facing off over the sovereignty of waters around Jakarta’s Riau Islands, in the South China Sea. Jakarta’s exclusive economic zone, a 200-nautical-mile zone within its afforded special rights to exploit marine resources, overlaps with China’s capacious nine-dash line claim, under which Beijing asserts rights over nearly 90 per cent of the critical waterway. That means the core of the ongoing dispute between the two... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3047768/its-time-southeast-asia-stand-together-against-china-indonesia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3047768/its-time-southeast-asia-stand-together-against-china-indonesia?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 27 Jan 2020 06:11:58 +0000 The action-reaction cycle of escalation between the United States and Iran took a dramatic turn on January 8 as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched several ballistic missiles at US military facilities in Iraq. The attack, codenamed Operation Martyr Soleimani, was designed by the Iranian side to avenge the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the late leader of the corps’ Quds Force, who was responsible for managing Tehran’s proxy and regional activities in the Middle East. The current... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3045681/us-iran-crisis-may-help-china-find-its-voice-over-middle-east?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3045681/us-iran-crisis-may-help-china-find-its-voice-over-middle-east?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 12 Jan 2020 09:00:19 +0000 Elections in Sri Lanka last month have put the small Indian Ocean country back in the spotlight. On November 18, Gotabaya Rajapaksa was sworn in as the eighth president of Sri Lanka. Soon afterwards, his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa, the former president who, over his 10-year term, oversaw the end to the country’s bloody civil war, was sworn in as prime minister. The Rajapaksa brothers have seized the reins of power, riding high on a tide of national security concerns and ethnic... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3043016/return-sri-lankas-rajapaksa-brothers-raises-fresh-challenge?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3043016/return-sri-lankas-rajapaksa-brothers-raises-fresh-challenge?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 22 Dec 2019 00:30:10 +0000 I last saw Michael Kovrig in Italy in October 2018. I last saw Michael Spavor in South Korea in November 2018. Within weeks of us bidding farewell, both of them were picked up by Chinese authorities, detained first without charges for the near-maximum duration that arbitrary detention is legally permissible in China. Thereafter, the two were stuck with exaggerated and outrageous charges concerning espionage activities. In reality, their only “crime” – if it can be called that – was being... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3041795/china-hostage-diplomacy-isnt-working-its-time-free-kovrig?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3041795/china-hostage-diplomacy-isnt-working-its-time-free-kovrig?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 14 Dec 2019 12:00:10 +0000 It was the 10-tonne truck that China had to have seen coming. The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, signed into law by US President Donald Trump last week, represents a powerful demonstration of political will by US lawmakers and the White House to hold Beijing to account for the erosion of the special administration region’s status under the “one country, two systems” framework. With unanimous passage in the House of Representatives and the Senate by voice votes, the bill was impervious... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3041060/china-prisoner-its-own-propaganda-response-us-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3041060/china-prisoner-its-own-propaganda-response-us-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 07 Dec 2019 03:28:12 +0000 US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper’s second trip to Asia comes at a particularly turbulent time, even by the standards of the Trump era. Alliance burden-sharing doldrums, an increasingly recalcitrant North Korea, and the pending expiration of a South Korea-Japan intelligence-sharing agreement loom large over his regional tour. The cost-sharing issue in particular has frothed up to ridiculous proportions, comprising what effectively amounts to US strategic malpractice. The Trump administration is... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3038098/us-secretary-defence-mark-esper-seeks-balance-relations-visit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3038098/us-secretary-defence-mark-esper-seeks-balance-relations-visit?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 17 Nov 2019 10:00:11 +0000 The US-China trade war drama is full of protagonists, antagonists, comedy, and tragedy, but what has generally been less of a problem has been the set pieces. That appears to have just changed. Chilean President Sebastian Pinera announced this week that Santiago would no longer host two upcoming major international summits, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and the 2019 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP25. The cancellation comes amid massive protests and... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3035960/donald-trump-wont-get-grand-stage-us-china-trade-deal-after?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3035960/donald-trump-wont-get-grand-stage-us-china-trade-deal-after?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 02 Nov 2019 09:30:14 +0000 The recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the southern Indian city of Mamallapuram was meant to provide a forum for the leaders to build on the progress they had purportedly made in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in 2018, their first “informal summit”. In theory, an informal summit setting has value. It allows the two leaders to get to know one another. Modi, leader of the world’s largest democracy with a political mandate unseen in... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3033608/now-hard-part-another-informal-summit-over-china-and-india-are?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3033608/now-hard-part-another-informal-summit-over-china-and-india-are?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 19 Oct 2019 00:30:07 +0000 Ankit Panda Ankit Panda Politics in the United States has been a global spectacle since January 2017, but it will be nothing compared with what’s to come. The Donald Trump administration is quickly entering survival mode, with Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, announcing an impeachment inquiry against the US president over egregious abuses of his office. Surprising few of his critics, Trump has conflated his personal political interests with those of the United States, using the power of his office... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3031700/donald-trump-administration-enters-survival-mode-foreign?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3031700/donald-trump-administration-enters-survival-mode-foreign?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 05 Oct 2019 21:30:04 +0000 Of all the thousands of tonnes of military hardware that passed along Beijing’s Changan Avenue on Tuesday, one of the most scrutinised items was the Dong Feng 17 (DF-17) hypersonic boost-glide missile. A total of 18 models were paraded on their launchers, representing two brand new units. The DF-17 is the weapon that the US intelligence community estimated in 2017 to become the first of its kind to see operational deployment. The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force will probably begin... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3031404/chinas-df-17-hypersonic-missile-serious-threat-united-states?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3031404/chinas-df-17-hypersonic-missile-serious-threat-united-states?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 05 Oct 2019 10:00:04 +0000 John Bolton is out as US President Donald Trump’s third national security adviser. The remarkable turnover in that position is unprecedented, with Trump now the first leader ever to see four different people in the role during a first term. Bolton came to the Trump administration as an experienced bureaucratic operator with strongly held views. While the latter didn’t particularly distinguish him within the administration, it was the former that made him particularly effective at manoeuvring... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3029810/us-china-relations-set-more-same-under-donald-trumps-new?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3029810/us-china-relations-set-more-same-under-donald-trumps-new?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 21 Sep 2019 11:30:11 +0000 The United States may be about to get another chance at working towards a limited agreement with North Korea before the year ends. Two developments point to this possibility. First, on September 9 – North Korea’s foundation day – Choe Son-hui, the country’s foreign vice-minister, said talks with the US could resume later this month. “We have willingness to sit with the US side for comprehensive discussion,” Choe said. Her remark suggested that the outcome of the June 30 meeting between US... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3027396/us-may-still-get-another-chance-denuclearisation-deal-north?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3027396/us-may-still-get-another-chance-denuclearisation-deal-north?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 16 Sep 2019 04:36:55 +0000 Relations between South Korea and Japan, two major US allies in northeast Asia, appear to be in free fall. In the final days of August, the South Korean government announced it would not renew the 2016 General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Japan later this year, chipping away at a foundational intelligence-sharing agreement between Seoul and Tokyo. The announcement came in the same 30-day period that marked the most intense bout of North Korean missile testing since... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3026208/can-china-take-advantage-rift-between-south-korea-and-japan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3026208/can-china-take-advantage-rift-between-south-korea-and-japan?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Sep 2019 08:00:12 +0000 India appears to be slowly closing the initial chapter of its life as a possessor of nuclear weapons. Marking the anniversary of the death of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the prime minister who oversaw India's nuclear weaponisation in 1998, defence minister Rajnath Singh became the most senior Indian official to publicly cast doubt on the credibility of India's long-standing “no first use” posture. Speaking at Pokhran, where India had detonated weaponised nuclear devices in 1998 (India's weaponisation... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3024256/indias-rethink-no-first-use-nuclear-policy-wont-surprise-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3024256/indias-rethink-no-first-use-nuclear-policy-wont-surprise-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 25 Aug 2019 05:45:09 +0000 India’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led government realised a long-standing aspiration of its followers and ideological fellow travellers on August 5. By announcing it would abrogate Article 370 of the Indian constitution, thereby ending special status for the state of Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi moved to consolidate its control over this region. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his right-hand man and home minister, Amit Shah, had cashed in on the massive electoral mandate the party had won in... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3022055/how-indias-kashmir-move-complicates-border-issue-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3022055/how-indias-kashmir-move-complicates-border-issue-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 10 Aug 2019 07:00:06 +0000 Kim Jong-un’s campaign of “maximum pressure” against the United States has continued despite the pageantry of the June 30 summit between him and US President Donald Trump at the inter-Korean Military Demarcation Line. In July alone – a little more than three weeks after that summit – Kim was photographed inspecting a new submarine and overseeing tests of a new short-range ballistic missile system – which poses a huge threat to South Korea-based missile defence systems – and a new multiple-launch... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3021319/kim-jong-uns-strategy-suggests-us-has-choice-change-stance-or?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3021319/kim-jong-uns-strategy-suggests-us-has-choice-change-stance-or?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 04 Aug 2019 08:00:15 +0000 Approaching the third anniversary of the tribunal ruling in the Philippines’ favour against China over maritime entitlements in the South China Sea, it became clear that Beijing was no closer to adhering to the international court’s binding award. Instead, China continued to demonstrate its disregard for the landmark July 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, and for the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Beijing’s quest to establish a new status... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3020188/chinas-disregard-vietnamese-sovereignty-leaves-region-worse?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3020188/chinas-disregard-vietnamese-sovereignty-leaves-region-worse?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Jul 2019 07:00:07 +0000 In the final days of June, soon after the G20 encounter between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Japan, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force conducted missile tests in a disputed part of the South China Sea. The tests took on particular significance in light of reports that the weapons fired were anti-ship ballistic missiles. While the US has long known that China was developing these capabilities, previous tests have been conducted over the Chinese mainland and this marked the first known... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3018520/how-chinese-missile-tests-could-stakes-us-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3018520/how-chinese-missile-tests-could-stakes-us-south-china-sea?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 14 Jul 2019 12:00:06 +0000 US President Donald Trump’s summit diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is back on. The two leaders met on the last day of June for a quick meeting at the inter-Korean Joint Security Area, along the Military Demarcation Line that has separated North and South Korea since 1953. The meeting served an important purpose: it allowed both leaders to replace the bitter aftertaste of their last summit encounter in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February with something sweeter. In practical terms, Trump... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3017528/donald-trump-kim-jong-un-handshake-korean-border-was-nice?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3017528/donald-trump-kim-jong-un-handshake-korean-border-was-nice?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 06 Jul 2019 08:00:10 +0000 How many times can Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump agree to a personal truce before things turn sour again? At their meeting on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, the two men agreed to a resumption of the stalled trade negotiations but failed to come to any kind of grand bargain or deal. To create a better environment for the talks, Trump agreed not to go ahead with his threat to impose new tariffs on about US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports, but... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3016688/how-many-personal-truces-between-xi-and-trump-will-it-take?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3016688/how-many-personal-truces-between-xi-and-trump-will-it-take?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 30 Jun 2019 14:00:16 +0000 Well over a year since accepting Kim Jong-un’s invitation to Pyongyang in March 2018, Xi Jinping has arrived in the North Korean capital. The Chinese president’s visit is the first of its kind since his predecessor’s trip to see the North Korean leader’s father, Kim Jong-il, in 2005. The relationship between China and North Korea has been through a fair bit in the 14 intervening years. Kim, like his father in the mid-to-late 1990s, spent his first years in control of the monolithic North Korean... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3015369/chinese-president-xi-jinpings-trip-north-korea-serves-reminder?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3015369/chinese-president-xi-jinpings-trip-north-korea-serves-reminder?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 20 Jun 2019 10:00:18 +0000 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party have won a powerful mandate in India’s 2019 general elections. As India forms a new government and Modi begins a second five-year term, one of the fundamental foreign policy challenges that will remain high on the agenda in New Delhi is the nature of the bilateral relationship with China. Modi’s second term begins in a turbulent global context, with no sign that either the United States or China will unilaterally... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012685/complex-issues-china-indias-narendra-modi-carries-his-second?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012685/complex-issues-china-indias-narendra-modi-carries-his-second?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 04 Jun 2019 05:28:14 +0000 Directors of policy planning at the US Department of State aren’t normally headline-makers. At least that used to be the case, until Kiron Skinner, the head of policy planning, offered a controversial analysis at a public event of what the Trump administration has identified as an era of resurgent great power competition. Speaking about the challenge that the US perceives from China today – a challenge that is, broadly, appreciated across both major political parties – Skinner traversed... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010577/declining-us-should-reject-race-based-thinking-and-embrace?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3010577/declining-us-should-reject-race-based-thinking-and-embrace?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 18 May 2019 08:52:22 +0000 Tensions between the United States and China are resurgent in May over the issue of trade as long-standing negotiations between the two sides fall apart. At the same time, the US Department of Defence’s release of an annual report on Chinese military capabilities for American lawmakers has drawn attention to China’s ongoing military modernisation and expansion. This year’s report mostly continues to discuss trends that have been highlighted in recent years, with a focus on Beijing’s use of... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3009809/how-chinas-military-upgrade-and-trade-tensions-are-challenging?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3009809/how-chinas-military-upgrade-and-trade-tensions-are-challenging?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 12 May 2019 09:00:05 +0000 If the idea that the United States and China are engaged in open competition may have been controversial a few years ago, it is no longer so. Starting in 2017, Washington openly acknowledged that “great power” competition was back and Beijing, while less explicit, has all but reciprocated. While breathless suggestions of a new “cold war” might be overstated – indeed, there are several features of the first cold war that are not present in today’s US-China dynamics – we are beginning to see... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007931/no-china-us-cold-war-visa-freeze-puts-mutual-insight-ice?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007931/no-china-us-cold-war-visa-freeze-puts-mutual-insight-ice?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 27 Apr 2019 08:00:10 +0000 Weeks after the collapse of the summit between Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam, the North Korean leader finally broke his silence. In a speech heavily focused on foreign affairs delivered to the Supreme People’s Assembly – North Korea’s pro forma parliament – Kim made clear his position. He said that a third summit with Trump wasn’t off the table just yet, but getting there would require evidence that the US position on sanctions relief had changed. To this end, Kim... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3006769/after-hanoi-debacle-us-must-review-its-north-korea-negotiating?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3006769/after-hanoi-debacle-us-must-review-its-north-korea-negotiating?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 20 Apr 2019 07:00:15 +0000 The South China Sea is heating up once again. This time, tensions are rising between China and the Philippines, with echoes of their 2012 stand-off over the Scarborough Shoal. However, unlike then, the Philippine leadership – specifically President Rodrigo Duterte – has, for some time, been expressing favour towards Beijing. The current crisis concerns the Philippines’ most significant military outpost in the Spratly group – in waters that China claims under its capacious nine-dash line that... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3005923/how-latest-south-china-sea-tensions-could-rekindle-manila?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3005923/how-latest-south-china-sea-tensions-could-rekindle-manila?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 13 Apr 2019 06:30:58 +0000 India shocked the world, in the final days of March, by showing it had the capability to destroy a satellite in low-Earth orbit. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the country’s Defence Research and Development Organisation had successfully used a new type of interceptor to demolish an Indian target satellite 300km (186 miles) above the Earth’s surface. New Delhi is the latest to join an exclusive group of countries that have displayed the ability to deploy direct-ascent kinetic... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3004928/how-indias-breakthrough-elite-space-power-devalues-discovery?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3004928/how-indias-breakthrough-elite-space-power-devalues-discovery?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 07 Apr 2019 02:00:14 +0000 The diplomatic process between the United States and North Korea that began last year is fragile after the collapse of talks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in Hanoi. One more wrong move by either side could bring the entire house of cards tumbling down, taking South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s inter-Korean dreams with it. We came perilously close to that with the recent confusion over possible new US sanctions. Trump tweeted that he had asked his Treasury department to withdraw new... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3004006/us-north-korea-diplomacy-falters-will-kim-jong-un-look-boost?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3004006/us-north-korea-diplomacy-falters-will-kim-jong-un-look-boost?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 31 Mar 2019 09:00:11 +0000 March has marked the budget season for the United States and China alike. Earlier this month, at the National People’s Congress, Beijing announced a 7.5 percentage increase in its projected defence spending over last year. It will spend US$177.54 billion on sustaining, growing, and modernising its military. The United States, a little more than a year after acknowledging it was in an era of great-power competition again, announced a US$750 billion defence budget. Headlines have zeroed on the... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3001973/china-builds-its-military-muscle-it-will-pivot-head-games?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3001973/china-builds-its-military-muscle-it-will-pivot-head-games?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 16 Mar 2019 03:15:54 +0000 As the worst crisis between India and Pakistan since 2002 continues to play out, the world is watching for New Delhi’s reaction to Islamabad’s decision on Friday to release the Indian pilot captured after being shot down. The origins of the crisis are not, of course, based in February 2019. Yes, India made the decision to strike Pakistani territory in retaliation for what was the worst terror attack against its security personnel in Kashmir in three decades, but what the current situation really... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2188345/india-pakistan-crisis-how-long-can-china-oppose-un-labelling?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2188345/india-pakistan-crisis-how-long-can-china-oppose-un-labelling?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 02 Mar 2019 05:50:12 +0000 The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) indefinitely barred the United States and the Soviet Union from possessing, testing or deploying any ground-based missiles – cruise or ballistic – with ranges of 500km (310 miles) to 5,500km. Its geographic scope was universal, even as pre-treaty concerns mainly centred on western Europe. The agreement, signed in December 1987 by then US president Ronald Reagan and former Soviet Union general secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, was notable for being... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2187188/why-nuclear-arms-talks-between-china-and-us-are-inescapable?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2187188/why-nuclear-arms-talks-between-china-and-us-are-inescapable?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 24 Feb 2019 08:02:09 +0000 The usual cast of characters were back at the negotiating table, trying to find a way to stem another round of US tariff increases that were stayed in December after the Buenos Aires G20 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer were back in Beijing, where they again sat across the table from Vice-Premier Liu He, China’s lead trade negotiator. The US delegation also met Xi himself at... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2186432/clock-ticks-theres-path-win-win-outcome-us-china-trade-talks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2186432/clock-ticks-theres-path-win-win-outcome-us-china-trade-talks?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 16 Feb 2019 10:00:00 +0000 Huawei’s problems went from very bad to worse as January wound to a close. The US Justice Department’s release of an indictment outlining the company’s alleged wrongdoing combined with the formal submission to Canada of an extradition request for its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, promise to keep Huawei’s fate high on the US-China agenda. The indictment outlines the allegations that make up the basis of the United States’ case against the Chinese telecommunications giant. American... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2184796/option-china-it-tries-help-huawei-escape-its-mounting-legal?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2184796/option-china-it-tries-help-huawei-escape-its-mounting-legal?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 03 Feb 2019 09:00:30 +0000 The Trump administration has released its missile defence review – a strategic document setting the stage for an expansion of how the US protects its territory, allies and military forces from cruise, ballistic and hypersonic threats. The document’s consequences will range far past just “defence”, however. As the Nobel Prize-winning game theorist Thomas Schelling once warned, all those decades ago during the cold war, the importance of “feedback” in military planning cannot be overstated. For... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2183557/how-donald-trumps-missile-defence-review-and-its-impact-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2183557/how-donald-trumps-missile-defence-review-and-its-impact-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 26 Jan 2019 00:15:00 +0000 The 2019 diplomatic season between the United States and North Korea is officially on. Last Friday, North Korean official Kim Yong-chol – the man who has been the lead negotiator on behalf of Kim Jong-un since the Singapore summit last June – visited Washington. He became the first North Korean official since Jo Myong-rok, Kim Jong-il’s envoy in 2000, to spend a night in the US capital. He briefly met his counterpart, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, then spent nearly two hours in the Oval... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2182985/us-north-korea-talks-made-second-trump-kim-summit-likely-first?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2182985/us-north-korea-talks-made-second-trump-kim-summit-likely-first?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 21 Jan 2019 08:46:49 +0000 On the very last day of 2018, US President Donald Trump signed into law the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), which according to the White House “establishes a multifaceted strategy to increase US security, economic interests and values in the Indo-Pacific region”. The act represents an attempt by the US Congress to exercise a degree of oversight over the White House’s implementation of the Asia policy that is articulated in the 2017 National Security Strategy and the 2018 National Defence... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2181807/donald-trumps-aria-overture-greater-harmony-indo-pacific-region?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2181807/donald-trumps-aria-overture-greater-harmony-indo-pacific-region?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 12 Jan 2019 15:03:46 +0000 The announcement of charges against two Chinese nationals by the US Department of Justice earlier this year in connection with various alleged computer intrusion crimes might seem like yet another salvo in the growing cold war between Beijing and Washington. But it’s part of something much greater. The United States appears to be working to find a way to deter, and build an international norm against, state-backed espionage against private companies. The indictment of the Chinese nationals is... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2179739/charges-against-chinese-nationals-are-likely-only-beginning-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2179739/charges-against-chinese-nationals-are-likely-only-beginning-us?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 30 Dec 2018 04:30:00 +0000 US President Donald Trump’s first appointed secretary of defence, James Mattis, has resigned. Despite the president’s claim on Twitter that Mattis was retiring, his resignation letter makes clear that his departure is effectively one borne of long-term ideological disagreements with Trump and his “America first” foreign policy agenda. The proximal cause, while not stated by Mattis himself, appears to be the Trump’s sudden decision to withdraw US forces from Syria. That decision may also be... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2179071/james-mattis-resignation-what-now-us-china-military-ties?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2179071/james-mattis-resignation-what-now-us-china-military-ties?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 22 Dec 2018 07:00:45 +0000 The arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Chinese telecommunications titan Huawei, in Canada has opened yet another rift between China and the West at a time of rising tensions across multiple fronts. Meng, according to Canadian prosecutors, is charged with materially misrepresenting Huawei’s business relationships with Iran, causing American financial institutions to inadvertently clear transactions in violation of US sanctions on Iran. With Meng’s knowledge, Huawei used a Hong... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2177896/why-us-needs-stand-canada-and-set-aside-politics-prosecution?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2177896/why-us-needs-stand-canada-and-set-aside-politics-prosecution?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 16 Dec 2018 10:02:50 +0000 The dust has settled in the trade war between the United States and China. After their hotly anticipated dinner meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on the sidelines of this year’s G20 leaders’ summit, US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping found the necessary ingredients for what amounts to a temporary truce. The war isn’t over, but it’ll cool as 2018 comes to an end. The G20 truce shouldn’t leave investors worry-free, but it is likely to give markets the short-term... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2176000/trump-xi-trade-ceasefire-isnt-enough-resolve-us-and-chinas-deep?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2176000/trump-xi-trade-ceasefire-isnt-enough-resolve-us-and-chinas-deep?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 02 Dec 2018 17:00:45 +0000 The United States and China, after a delay, have concluded their second annual diplomatic and security dialogue at a time of unusually high bilateral tensions along all fronts. Even beyond the ongoing trade war, the recent meeting between US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of Defence James Mattis, Chinese Politburo member Yang Jiechi, and State Councillor and Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe follows several notable events. In August, the US moved to impose sanctions on the... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2172603/us-china-diplomatic-and-security-talks-fail-produce-way-out?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2172603/us-china-diplomatic-and-security-talks-fail-produce-way-out?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 10 Nov 2018 10:30:30 +0000 The sole remaining cold war arms control treaty between the United States and Russia may be on its last legs. US President Donald Trump, egged on by his arms control-averse adviser on national security affairs, John Bolton, has said Washington will leave the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Signed in 1987, the treaty was the first to result in the destruction of an entire class of nuclear and conventional weaponry. It barred both the US and the Soviet Union from developing, possessing,... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2171119/why-cost-donald-trumps-plan-scrap-nuclear-arms-control-treaty?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2171119/why-cost-donald-trumps-plan-scrap-nuclear-arms-control-treaty?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 04 Nov 2018 10:34:37 +0000 Starting in the Obama administration, the United States began studying ways to covertly use offensive cyber capabilities to disable North Korea’s missiles before they could launch. These efforts have intensified under the Trump administration, which has loosened Obama-era guidance on the conditions under which the United States could use cyberweapons. In fact, earlier this year, a leaked document showed – without naming North Korea specifically – the development of a policy within the Pentagon... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2169413/pentagons-goal-stopping-enemy-missiles-theyre-launched-risks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2169413/pentagons-goal-stopping-enemy-missiles-theyre-launched-risks?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 20 Oct 2018 10:30:45 +0000 It has been abundantly obvious in recent weeks that ties between the United States and China are heading for a sharp decline. The collapse is occurring on multiple tracks. Following the escalation of the US-China trade war with the Trump administration’s decision to move ahead on a US$200 billion round of additional tariffs, Beijing saw it fit to call off scheduled talks. The security and military-to-military component of relations also has seen hits along multiple fronts. In September, the US... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2167251/how-partisan-policies-donald-trumps-administration-rubbed-salt?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2167251/how-partisan-policies-donald-trumps-administration-rubbed-salt?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 Oct 2018 23:00:00 +0000 The world’s eyes have been on the United Nations in the penultimate week of September, but don’t let the antics in New York overshadow a momentous election result in a small country in the northern Indian Ocean. On September 23, voters in the Maldives delivered an astounding mandate to Ibrahim “Ibu” Mohamed Solih, the candidate of a joint opposition coalition. Solih was facing tall odds, making his victory all the more surprising. He was going up against Abdulla Yameen, who had taken the small... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2166270/voters-re-energise-maldivian-democracy-new-leaders-are-unlikely?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2166270/voters-re-energise-maldivian-democracy-new-leaders-are-unlikely?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 01 Oct 2018 03:30:45 +0000 Diplomacy between North and South Korea continues apace in 2018, and the just-concluded fifth inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang underlines the remarkable depth and breadth of their engagement. The most significant outcome of the latest meeting was the signing by their respective defence ministers of a deal to reduce military tension along the boundary separating the two countries. The agreement, which military delegations had been working on for months, included important provisions to manage and... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2165398/north-south-korea-ease-military-tensions-how-close-are-they?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2165398/north-south-korea-ease-military-tensions-how-close-are-they?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 23 Sep 2018 12:00:30 +0000 North Korean military parades are a grand affair and, in recent years, were of great interest to analysts who studied the short, medium, and intercontinental ballistic missiles on show to gauge its advances in nuclear capability. That era appears to have come to a close. While the weekend’s military parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the country’s founding included a considerable range of military systems, it was notable for the complete exclusion of any nuclear-capable systems. The... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2164292/modest-and-clubby-kim-jong-un-new-normal-now-nuclear-north?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2164292/modest-and-clubby-kim-jong-un-new-normal-now-nuclear-north?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 15 Sep 2018 12:00:00 +0000 Like so many things, US President Donald Trump’s proposal to create a new branch of the American military – a Space Force – began as something of a joke. It was widely derided among the US national security cognoscenti until, like so many things, it snowballed into something with legs. Even if we still don’t know what exactly the proposed Space Force will be, it has turned into a cri de coeur for Trump and many of his supporters. The United States won’t operate this new force any time soon, but... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2161273/donald-trumps-plan-new-space-force-wrong-response-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2161273/donald-trumps-plan-new-space-force-wrong-response-us?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 25 Aug 2018 12:00:30 +0000 Earlier this year, the world eagerly anticipated what was once a rare event: an inter-Korean summit. Following just two previous meetings – involving former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and progressive South Korean presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, in 2000 and 2007 respectively – current President Moon Jae-in met Kim’s son, Kim Jong-un, on April 27 at the Panmunjom Truce Village. The meeting was the first inter-Korean summit outside Pyongyang and supercharged Moon’s domestic... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2160089/how-next-inter-korean-summit-only-raises-stakes-south?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2160089/how-next-inter-korean-summit-only-raises-stakes-south?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 18 Aug 2018 04:15:15 +0000