https://www.scmp.com/rss/323905/feed Hugh White is emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University. He served for many years as a senior defence and intelligence official with the Australian government before heading ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre. His publications include “The China Choice” (2012) and “How to Defend Australia” (forthcoming 2019). en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Eighteen months ago, Australians were stunned when they learned of the Aukus proposal for their country to build nuclear-powered submarines. An initiative of such scale and audacity seemed almost to defy critique and analysis. But that began to change last month when the leaders of the United States, Britain and Australia gathered in San Diego to announce the broad outline of how this massive project would work. They revealed a plan of immense complexity and staggering cost, beset by a host of... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3217859/aukus-gamble-can-australia-rely-us-alliance-secure-its-future-asia-amid-rising-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3217859/aukus-gamble-can-australia-rely-us-alliance-secure-its-future-asia-amid-rising-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 22 Apr 2023 00:30:09 +0000 In Asia, an old threat to peace is returning. For many decades, it has seemed almost unthinkable that the region’s major powers could again engage in a full-scale war, as they did 75 years ago. Today, the United States and China confront each other as bitter rivals. Each seeks strategic dominance in East Asia in the “Asian century”: the US wants to retain the primacy it has exercised for over 100 years, and China wants to take its place. The stakes are high. Neither side seeks war – in fact,... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3103028/help-defuse-us-china-tensions-asian-states-must-agree-americas?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3103028/help-defuse-us-china-tensions-asian-states-must-agree-americas?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 25 Sep 2020 22:00:09 +0000 Declaring a new cold war against China is easy, but working out how to fight it and win it is much harder. While almost everyone in Washington these days seems to agree that resisting China’s seemingly insatiable ambition is now America’s highest strategic priority, the nature and scale of the task is still enveloped in uncertainty. No one seems too worried about this, however, because they assume that a new cold war with China is going to be easy to win. The few attempts we have seen to... https://www.scmp.com/china/hugh-white-america-must-be-prepared-commit-nuclear-war-win-its-cold-war-china/article/3001074?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/china/hugh-white-america-must-be-prepared-commit-nuclear-war-win-its-cold-war-china/article/3001074?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Mar 2019 09:30:58 +0000 Declaring a new cold war against China is easy, but working out how to fight it and win it is much harder. While almost everyone in Washington these days seems to agree that resisting China’s seemingly insatiable ambition is now America’s highest strategic priority, the nature and scale of the task is still enveloped in uncertainty. No one seems too worried about this, however, because they assume that a new cold war with China is going to be easy to win. The few attempts we have seen to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2188648/can-us-win-new-cold-war-china-not-without?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2188648/can-us-win-new-cold-war-china-not-without?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Mar 2019 18:30:15 +0000 Australia has long walked a tightrope between the United States and China, and now is in danger of falling off. Canberra’s balancing act went wobbly for all to see this week after a meeting between the two countries’ foreign ministers. When Australia’s Julie Bishop described it as “very warm”, China’s Foreign Ministry bluntly contradicted her. Australia needs to take off its “coloured glasses” if the relationship is to “return to the right track”, its spokesman warned. China’s impatience is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2147502/australia-must-ask-does-america-have-power-or-resolve-stop?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2147502/australia-must-ask-does-america-have-power-or-resolve-stop?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 24 May 2018 09:15:00 +0000 You could call it the “Woody Allen Doctrine”. For years, Washington’s formidable band of Asia experts have persuaded US presidents to spend precious days, and endure gruelling transpacific flights, to attend Asia’s ­annual round of summits with their silly shirts and anodyne communiqués, by quoting the comedian’s most famous line: Eighty per cent of success in life is just showing up. It is an appealing idea. Simply by attending these meetings, the ­experts have argued, the president can... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2120010/why-us-no-match-china-asia-and-trump-should-have-stayed-home?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2120010/why-us-no-match-china-asia-and-trump-should-have-stayed-home?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Nov 2017 09:28:23 +0000 When North Korea tested a ballistic missile back in February, the Trump administration threatened military action. They did the same thing when Pyongyang tested again on July 4. But each time, after a few days of ­rising anxiety, the tough talk evaporated. Washington went back to the same old measures – sanctions and UN Security Council resolutions – which have so plainly failed to stop North Korea’s nuclear and missiles programmes for so long. That leaves North Korea’s weapons programme intact... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2103055/empty-us-threats-over-north-korea-are-serving-beijings?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2103055/empty-us-threats-over-north-korea-are-serving-beijings?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 18 Jul 2017 09:30:00 +0000 Donald Trump’s first 100 days were always going to be interesting. Never before have Americans elected a person to the Oval Office who knew so little about foreign policy, and who appeared to care so little about it. But it seemed simply unimaginable that he could conduct himself as president in the reckless, ill-informed way that he presented himself as a candidate. Nevertheless, it seemed equally hard to imagine that he could undergo the kind of changes that would be needed if he was to fulfil... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2091408/syria-and-north-korea-crises-show-donald-trump-his-bumbling?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2091408/syria-and-north-korea-crises-show-donald-trump-his-bumbling?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Apr 2017 10:00:34 +0000 To America’s anxious allies, President Donald Trump’s plans for a big boost to the US defence budget might appear to be welcome news. It seems to offer reassurance that despite the strong strand of “America first” isolationism in his campaign, the new president is committed to upholding America’s strategic commitments, and preserving its role as the guarantor of peace and stability in key regions like Europe and East Asia. But it would be a mistake to see the president’s defence budget... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2079563/why-trumps-budget-boost-wont-actually-strengthen-us-defences?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2079563/why-trumps-budget-boost-wont-actually-strengthen-us-defences?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Mar 2017 01:30:23 +0000 We should not take Rex Tillerson too seriously when he threatened last week that America would deny China access to its bases in the South China Sea, plainly implying a willingness to use force to do so if necessary. He was not speaking from a prepared text, and his remarks were so ill-informed and foolish that he probably just didn’t know what he was talking about. So this was a gaffe, not a statement of policy. On Trump’s foreign policy, let common sense prevail But that doesn’t mean his... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2062762/their-threats-china-trump-and-tillerson-are-making-rookie?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2062762/their-threats-china-trump-and-tillerson-are-making-rookie?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 17 Jan 2017 09:45:25 +0000