https://www.scmp.com/rss/327509/feed Edward is an ESRC Scholar in International Relations at the University of Oxford, specialising in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Last year saw both a frost in relations between Beijing and Washington and stagnation in the negotiations between the US and North Korea after the collapse of the Hanoi summit. US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Kim Jong-un at the demilitarised zone in June bore little fruit. Further talks in October stalled and the hopes of denuclearisation in the restive state faded. Pyongyang continued its short and medium-range missile testing throughout the year, and at the 5th Plenary Meeting of the... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3044728/will-china-keeps-its-patience-north-korea-2020?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3044728/will-china-keeps-its-patience-north-korea-2020?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 05 Jan 2020 06:45:05 +0000 North Korea’s missile testing seems to continue apace, yet not according to North Korea’s definition. Its recent missile test set off a conflict of rhetoric not between Washington and Pyongyang, but Pyongyang and Tokyo. Following Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s condemnation of the latest ballistic missile launch, North Korean state media denounced Abe as “an underwit”, “the most stupid man ever known in history”, and a “perfect imbecile”. The reason? In Pyongyang’s eyes, the November 28... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3041062/its-deadline-bold-decision-us-looms-north-korea-ramping?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3041062/its-deadline-bold-decision-us-looms-north-korea-ramping?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Dec 2019 09:00:14 +0000 North Korea continues to launch missiles and in doing so it is sending a reminder – nuclear development is not going to let up. In fact, Pyongyang will fine-tune its capabilities. With every flight, not least in short-range tests, comes another opportunity to refine missile delivery and try out some new technology. With every launch comes another threat to the international community, not least to South Korea. The announcement last week by first vice-foreign minister Choe Son-hui of North... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3027197/when-north-korea-and-us-restart-nuclear-weapons-talks-bold?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3027197/when-north-korea-and-us-restart-nuclear-weapons-talks-bold?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 15 Sep 2019 08:00:08 +0000 North Korea has conducted five rounds of missile tests in less than three weeks, in what Kim Jong-un has described as a “warning” to both the South and the US about joint military exercises. But what signal does this send to Beijing? First and foremost, this warning to the US and South Korea is nothing new. The North has, for decades, decried the South’s military exercises with the US as “war games” and “rehearsals for a nuclear war” on the peninsula. But this latest warning comes at a time when... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3022275/what-do-north-koreas-latest-missile-tests-mean-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3022275/what-do-north-koreas-latest-missile-tests-mean-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 11 Aug 2019 07:00:06 +0000 Mao Zedong once described the relationship between China and North Korea being “as close as lips and teeth”, while Pyongyang has often described itself as Beijing’s “little brother”. Brotherly love aside, the relationship between the two countries has not always been smooth, but there were no signs of any turbulence during Xi Jinping’s visit to Pyongyang this week. The Chinese president’s trip came at a time of stagnant dialogue between Pyongyang and the United States (and South Korea). While... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3015645/was-xi-jinpings-state-visit-north-korea-reminder-us-big?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3015645/was-xi-jinpings-state-visit-north-korea-reminder-us-big?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 22 Jun 2019 15:00:12 +0000 A year before their 2018 Singapore summit, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un were engaged in a war of words. “Rocket Man” was ready to press his “nuclear button”, to be met by “fire and fury”. Yet, for all its optics, the Singapore summit produced a vague statement containing plenty of pledges, which have not been translated into actual progress on North Korea’s denuclearisation. At the one-year anniversary of that meeting, we remain stuck in a status quo of stalled negotiations. Did we expect too... https://www.scmp.com/news/article/3014537/what-next-us-north-korea-negotiations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/article/3014537/what-next-us-north-korea-negotiations?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 15 Jun 2019 08:00:17 +0000 Who could forget the statement by the recently promoted North Korean first vice-minister of foreign affairs Choe Son-hui after the unsuccessful Hanoi summit: “I have a feeling that Chairman Kim has lost the will to continue US-DPRK exchanges.” Yet, in light of the recent foreign ministry statement from Pyongyang, perhaps Kim has not lost the will to deal with US President Donald Trump, but, rather, with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and National Security Adviser John Bolton. As the North... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007730/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin-and-exploiting-great-power-politics?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3007730/kim-jong-un-vladimir-putin-and-exploiting-great-power-politics?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 Apr 2019 08:59:41 +0000 The Hanoi summit was disappointing, but not just for Washington. Seoul had hoped that a declaration to end the Korean war was a feasible possibility. Yet, US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un did not even come close, leaving South Korea wary of its alliance with the US, an alliance that the North has so often sought to fracture. While in a post-summit call to Trump, South Korean President Moon Jae-in affirmed how he “looked forward to productive results at follow-up... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2189304/time-south-korea-step-vanguard-us-north-korea-nuclear-talks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2189304/time-south-korea-step-vanguard-us-north-korea-nuclear-talks?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 10 Mar 2019 08:01:55 +0000 Episode 2 of “Trump Meets Kim” looks set for February 27-28 in Hanoi, Vietnam. Statements from recent talks between high-level US and North Korean officials ahead of the meeting witnessed Kim Jong-un complimenting President Trump on his “positive way of thinking”. Rhetorical flourishes aside, whether the second Trump-Kim summit will be successful depends on what Washington is willing to give away to catalyse a response from North Korea, and what Pyongyang gives away in return. Yet Seoul and... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2185634/when-trump-meets-kim-sequel-same-plot-same-sticking-points?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2185634/when-trump-meets-kim-sequel-same-plot-same-sticking-points?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 11 Feb 2019 04:00:30 +0000 Kim Jong-un’s seventh New Year’s address was marked by visible changes in its format. Kim addressed the nation from a comfortable armchair, overlooked by portraits of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, one way of showing his connection to the North Korean population. Optics aside, however, the message did not contain many surprises. Importantly, there was a clear message sent to the US, namely that the steps Washington takes in 2019 will be crucial in any development – positive or negative – on the... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2180825/kim-jong-uns-new-years-speech-offered-no-real-surprises-one?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2180825/kim-jong-uns-new-years-speech-offered-no-real-surprises-one?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 06 Jan 2019 03:00:45 +0000 Nobody was surprised when, on November 16, the ruling Workers Party of Korea announced that Kim Jong-un had “supervised a newly developed ultra-modern tactical weapon test”. North Korea deems itself to be a fully fledged nuclear power. A “tactical” test of an unidentified weapon reinforces the fact that its nuclear weapons are not going anywhere for now, so long as the gap remains in how Pyongyang and Washington (and its allies) define denuclearisation. While incremental movement in... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2177052/strategic-patience-maximum-pressure-obstacles-progress-remain?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2177052/strategic-patience-maximum-pressure-obstacles-progress-remain?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 09 Dec 2018 04:00:30 +0000 As Washington and Pyongyang continue their game of stalemate, could dramatic concessions be on the horizon? North Korea’s claim that “America does not even belch after swallowing a whole chicken” seems bizarre; but Pyongyang’s logic is clear. Washington must make a move, if the stagnant progress in the North Korean nuclear issue is to gain any traction on the part of Pyongyang. Early October saw the fourth visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to the hermit state, a visit heralded by North... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2169731/who-will-step-get-talks-north-korean-nuclear-threat-moving?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2169731/who-will-step-get-talks-north-korean-nuclear-threat-moving?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 27 Oct 2018 10:33:56 +0000 As expected, the third meeting between Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un produced a highly ambiguous statement. No timeline for a declaration of Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal and no framework for nuclear dismantlement arose. Yet optimists may disagree. The joint military declaration agreed to a cease of military exercises “aimed at each other along the Military Demarcation Line”, and the withdrawal of guard posts along the Demilitarised Zone. Pyongyang pledged to close its nuclear test facility at... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2166306/korean-summit-intentions-moon-and-kim-need-us-input-become?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2166306/korean-summit-intentions-moon-and-kim-need-us-input-become?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 30 Sep 2018 11:00:15 +0000 News that Xi Jinping decided to skip the celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the foundation of North Korea on Sunday may have caught many observers by surprise. Why decide to shun a close ally at this most crucial time, especially following three visits by Kim Jong-un to meet Xi in China earlier this year? Reciprocating would only seem to be following diplomatic convention. Nevertheless, we should not ask why Xi decided not to attend, instead opting to send Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2163237/theres-no-point-asking-why-xi-jinping-isnt-going-north-korea?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2163237/theres-no-point-asking-why-xi-jinping-isnt-going-north-korea?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 08 Sep 2018 12:00:45 +0000 The event was expected, true to the Panmunjom Declaration of April 27; but its arrival on the calendar will come a little earlier than anticipated. The announcement that Moon Jae-in will visit Pyongyang in mid- to late September comes as Washington and Pyongyang are not exchanging smiles. Seoul’s desire to initiate a further summit with the North may show that the South’s President Moon Jae-in is eager to take the lead in making progress with the North, even if such progress may not be... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2161914/why-south-korea-needs-help-reining-north-despite-promise-third?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2161914/why-south-korea-needs-help-reining-north-despite-promise-third?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 02 Sep 2018 15:00:15 +0000 News that North Korea may be enhancing its nuclear capabilities comes as no surprise. Yet the implications for regional alliance dynamics reveal the tragedy of great power politics, to use the phrase of acclaimed international relations scholar John Mearsheimer. Kim Jong-un’s third Beijing visit, coming one week after his “historic” summit with US President Donald Trump, contained no great revelations. Designed to allow the North Korean leader to debrief China’s president, Xi Jinping, on Kim’s... https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2153991/how-kim-jong-un-schooling-donald-trump-art-phantom-deal?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2153991/how-kim-jong-un-schooling-donald-trump-art-phantom-deal?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 08 Jul 2018 14:03:25 +0000