https://www.scmp.com/rss/327792/feed Patrik Schowitz is a global multi-asset strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com After another stellar year in 2021, global equity markets have had a difficult start to the new year, falling by 8 per cent as of late January, although they have recovered somewhat since. To make matters worse for many investors, two long-running market leaders, namely the US equity market and the global technology sector, have been under particular pressure. A key driver of the change in market fortunes has been the rapid shift in mood by major central banks across the globe, from a very loose... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3166612/tech-sector-and-us-stocks-losing-their-shine-emerging-markets-are?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3166612/tech-sector-and-us-stocks-losing-their-shine-emerging-markets-are?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Feb 2022 17:30:21 +0000 As we near the end of a stellar 2021 for global equities, it is worth asking what drove this, and how may 2022 compare? 2021 was a very strong year for global equity markets. Even after the recent pullback, sparked by worries over the Omicron variant of Covid-19, global equity indices are still up by around 15 per cent since the start of the year. However, as many investors in Asia are painfully aware, not every region’s equity market had such a good year. The strong global numbers hide a large... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3158891/china-key-reason-emerging-market-equities-missed-out-2021-global?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3158891/china-key-reason-emerging-market-equities-missed-out-2021-global?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 10 Dec 2021 08:30:30 +0000 Ballooning global fossil fuel prices, threats of power shortages in China and Europe, panic buying of petrol in Britain, semiconductor shortages affecting carmakers, and scores of container ships stuck outside US ports have dominated headlines in recent weeks. They all share one underlying driver – a supply chain crisis that could stoke inflation just as global growth momentum is slowing. While the market’s concern over stagflation may well be exaggerated, navigating supply chain issues presents... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3153870/supply-chain-crisis-why-central-banks-should-avoid-overreacting?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3153870/supply-chain-crisis-why-central-banks-should-avoid-overreacting?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Oct 2021 06:30:11 +0000 Emerging market equities have had a difficult year. They have been struggling since mid-February after a strong start, falling by more than 10 per cent, while developed market equities have risen by around 10 per cent. What has gone wrong, and when might it get better? The first thing to note is the dominance of Asia in the emerging market equity universe, with China accounting for more than a third of its equity by value. Adding in the markets of South Korea, Taiwan and India, the number is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3149812/how-chinas-wobbling-recovery-could-be-good-news-emerging-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3149812/how-chinas-wobbling-recovery-could-be-good-news-emerging-market?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 24 Sep 2021 06:30:20 +0000 For months, equity and bond markets have been sending different signals. Bond yields have seen wild swings as a result of a tug of war between those investors who think yields should be higher to compensate for rising inflation, and those who think they should stay low because of aggressive central bank buying. With these tensions in the background since the start of the year, the global benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield quickly rose from less than 1 per cent to above 1.7 per cent in March.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3146524/stronger-expected-company-earnings-set-drive-stock-markets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3146524/stronger-expected-company-earnings-set-drive-stock-markets?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Aug 2021 19:30:14 +0000 As we pass the halfway mark of 2021, investor worries about the growth outlook have once again begun to stir. The main trigger for this has been the recent fall in longer-term government bond yields, first and foremost in the United States but also in other parts of the world such as Europe and China. The key global benchmark 10-year US Treasury interest rate plunged as low as 1.3 per cent last week from a high of 1.75 per cent at the end of March. Meanwhile, the Chinese 10-year government bond... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3141229/why-fears-over-slowing-global-covid-19-recovery-are-premature?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3141229/why-fears-over-slowing-global-covid-19-recovery-are-premature?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 Jul 2021 08:30:15 +0000 Until relatively recently, it seemed that Asia had a better grip on the pandemic than the rest of the world. However, as countries across the globe move from containment and suppression towards vaccination and reopening, Asia risks falling behind Europe and North America. While they struggled to contain the initial outbreak of Covid-19, the US and the UK were the first major economies to start widely vaccinating their populations and they are reaping the benefits of relaxed social distancing... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3136873/asian-markets-coronavirus-divide-bright-prospects-china-japan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/asia/article/3136873/asian-markets-coronavirus-divide-bright-prospects-china-japan?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Jun 2021 06:30:00 +0000 With some parts of the world seemingly beginning to conquer the pandemic, an even more remarkable rebound has taken place in financial markets, where global equities have gained more than 80 per cent from just over a year ago.  The relationship between economic growth and financial markets can be messy but, generally, markets perform best when activity and profits are accelerating. In fact, whether the pace of growth is increasing or declining can often be more important than whether conditions... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3131601/us-economy-recovers-covid-19-could-markets-best-days-be-behind-them?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3131601/us-economy-recovers-covid-19-could-markets-best-days-be-behind-them?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 30 Apr 2021 06:30:19 +0000 The path to recovery from the Covid-19 crisis has become increasingly clear as countries around the world are vaccinating their populations and preparing to lift restrictions on public life. This is why markets have been booming, anticipating a surge in profits from renewed economic activity. Yet despite continued vaccination progress, markets have hit a rough patch in recent weeks, with global equities down by over 3 per cent since mid-February, and Asia-ex-Japan by around 6 per cent. What’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3124059/what-rising-us-bond-yields-mean-emerging-market-stocks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3124059/what-rising-us-bond-yields-mean-emerging-market-stocks?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 Mar 2021 09:00:16 +0000 Financial markets have been tearing ahead, fuelling abundant investment optimism even in the face of the ongoing Covid-19 crisis and health care systems creaking under the stress across much of the world. The bulls may be roaring but risks lurk. The first risk, and most obvious, concerns how the pandemic plays out. Investors’ sunny expectations are rooted in the rolling out of vaccines around the world. This feeds into an optimistic view that perhaps, from the middle of this year, economies can... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3119620/vaccine-delays-and-interest-rate-rise-risks-fail-dampen-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3119620/vaccine-delays-and-interest-rate-rise-risks-fail-dampen-market?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Jan 2021 07:30:13 +0000 After a crazy year 2020, what might 2021 look like? A common meme among financial analysts making their year-ahead forecasts is to predict which historical year 2021 might resemble. While we can’t guess if 2021 will mirror history, we can say with some conviction that it will be very different from 2020. Economies and markets this year were dominated by the spread of the pandemic, leading to a global recession that was unprecedented in the combination of its depth and speed caused by government... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3115062/despite-coronavirus-equity-markets-have-had-bumper-year-will-2021?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3115062/despite-coronavirus-equity-markets-have-had-bumper-year-will-2021?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 23 Dec 2020 20:00:07 +0000 Buoyant stock markets are ignoring near-term warning signals on the pandemic resurgence and instead focusing on upbeat Covid-19 vaccine expectations. While financial markets’ resilience has been remarkable in the short run, what about the long-run, real-world economic legacy of the pandemic? Most important, perhaps, is how much the pandemic has carved into long-term economic growth. The main worry concerns so-called economic scarring or constraining future growth potential. For instance, this... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3111556/coronavirus-recovery-vaccine-boosted-economy-still-coming-grips?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3111556/coronavirus-recovery-vaccine-boosted-economy-still-coming-grips?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Nov 2020 14:00:22 +0000 Political volatility and pandemic-related risks have dominated news headlines recently. Meanwhile, the global economy has quietly been on the mend. After a deep recession in the second quarter as governments across the world locked down their economies to contain Covid-19, growth is bouncing back strongly and a new economic cycle has started. The initial stage of the global economic recovery was explosive, supported simultaneously by reopenings as well as huge amounts of stimulus thrown at... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3105696/why-asian-equities-look-good-bet-2021-if-global-economic-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3105696/why-asian-equities-look-good-bet-2021-if-global-economic-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 Oct 2020 14:00:17 +0000 After surging through the summer, technology stocks have recently unnerved investors by starting to bounce around. This has put a spotlight on just now narrowly concentrated the US stock market is on a handful of large companies. This is actually fairly common in smaller equity markets dominated by a small number of national champions. Taiwan and South Korea are good examples, with TSMC accounting for nearly a third of the Taiwan Stock Exchange index and Samsung Electronics for over 20 per cent... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3101061/volatile-tech-stocks-expose-growing-vulnerability-us-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3101061/volatile-tech-stocks-expose-growing-vulnerability-us-market?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Sep 2020 18:30:10 +0000 The US dollar has been slumping since March and has been on an accelerated decline since late June. From its peak in late March, it has lost around 10 per cent against the euro, 5 per cent against the Korean won, 4.5 per cent against the Japanese yen and 2 per cent against the Chinese renminbi. Shielded by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s US dollar peg – which by design means that the Hong Kong dollar has to move in lockstep with the US currency – Hong Kong residents have mostly noticed these... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3097319/whats-behind-us-dollars-summer-slump-and-will-it-last?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3097319/whats-behind-us-dollars-summer-slump-and-will-it-last?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 Aug 2020 09:00:08 +0000 The sharp contrast between stock markets marching higher in the face of increasingly bleak headlines and economic carnage from the virus has been bewildering. To wit, global equity markets fell by 34 per cent from February to March, but have already recovered the vast majority of that drop by now. That turmoil now feels like aeons ago. Stocks are now less than 5 per cent below their all-time highs set in February. Meanwhile, in the real world, while economies are getting back on their feet, they... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3094486/earnings-season-will-tell-if-stock-market-optimism-justified?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3094486/earnings-season-will-tell-if-stock-market-optimism-justified?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 24 Jul 2020 09:00:06 +0000 After the fastest-ever bear market triggered by the pandemic fallout at the beginning of the year, global equity markets have staged a dramatic rebound, leaving the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) only about 10 per cent down. So far, the rebound has been led by the United States. One big question as economic recovery picks up is whether emerging market equities are now a good bet. Or are European equities (excluding the UK) worth considering given that, together with emerging markets, they... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3086551/equities-improve-emerging-markets-and-europe-are-looking-good-bets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3086551/equities-improve-emerging-markets-and-europe-are-looking-good-bets?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 May 2020 13:00:13 +0000 Despite being rocked by the economic shock of Covid-19 containment measures, global equity markets and corporate credit have set speed records in their rapid rebound. Looking at US data back to the mid-1800s, even the shortest equity bear markets (defined as declines of more than 20 per cent) have taken around three months to find a bottom. This year, the US equity market seemed to bottom much faster. It dropped by around a third in just 4½ weeks from mid-February and has since then regained... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3080249/coronavirus-batters-economies-worldwide-what-accounts-truncated-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3080249/coronavirus-batters-economies-worldwide-what-accounts-truncated-us?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Apr 2020 09:00:12 +0000 The world economy and financial markets, already deeply shaken by Covid-19, received another jolt this week in the form of the dramatic recent fall in oil prices. Despite these dual shocks and after an initial sharp hit to global economic growth that is expected to affect the first two quarters of this year, an eventual recovery in the world economy during the second half still seems likely. However, uncertainty in the economy and in financial markets has increased, as the precise interplay of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3074930/why-crashing-oil-prices-amid-coronavirus-epidemic-are-good-news?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3074930/why-crashing-oil-prices-amid-coronavirus-epidemic-are-good-news?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 13 Mar 2020 09:00:08 +0000 After a very strong start to the year, global equity markets have come under pressure in light of the coronavirus outbreak. But even so, markets have been holding up relatively well, with the global equity market still in positive territory for the year, and even the more affected Asia-Pacific equity region down only slightly at the time of writing. This comes hot on the heels of a spectacular 2019, which saw global equities rally by nearly a quarter and Asia ex-Japan by around 15 per cent.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3048234/heres-what-will-help-financial-markets-battle-impact-coronavirus?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3048234/heres-what-will-help-financial-markets-battle-impact-coronavirus?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Jan 2020 17:00:14 +0000 In many ways, 2019 has been a year of dislocation and disruption. The big wedge between stock market returns and economic growth illustrates one such contradiction: over the year, economic data and asset markets moved in opposing directions as earnings growth flatlined and world gross domestic product sank to below trend, yet all major asset classes posted handsome gains. A simple balanced portfolio of global stocks and bonds (60 per cent stocks, 40 per cent bonds) delivered over 17 per cent... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3043562/after-year-conflicting-signals-investors-should-welcome-growth-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3043562/after-year-conflicting-signals-investors-should-welcome-growth-and?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Dec 2019 06:00:19 +0000 China’s economy stands at a key juncture. The route it takes will have a complex impact on the world’s financial markets. Reviewing the historically nuanced relationship between economies and markets helps to put this in context.  Emerging markets’ high rates of growth are often pointed to as a key reason to buy into their stock markets, but economic growth is not the sole determinant of returns. High growth does translate into higher revenues – an important component of total returns – but... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3036589/china-likely-avoid-middle-income-trap-investors-should-beware?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3036589/china-likely-avoid-middle-income-trap-investors-should-beware?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 08 Nov 2019 23:00:09 +0000 Global markets are caught in the crossfire between slowing global growth and increasing policy stimulus. Slowing trade has dragged down industrial activity, and with it gross domestic product and profits growth in the global economy. Global economic growth indicators have been falling since mid-2018, with many showing outright contraction in the manufacturing sector. And, in stock markets, expectations for global profit growth this year have dropped to less than 2 per cent from just under 10 per... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026848/trade-war-brexit-and-hong-kong-turmoil-simmering-political-issues?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3026848/trade-war-brexit-and-hong-kong-turmoil-simmering-political-issues?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 13 Sep 2019 05:00:13 +0000 2019 has seen relentless rallies in both bond and equity markets. Bond yields – or interest rates to you and me – fall as bond prices rise, and this usually reflects some combination of falling growth and inflation expectations. In contrast, equities generally like stronger growth. Therefore, bonds and equities usually move in opposite directions. So how do we explain that US equity indices are at record highs – and global ones not far off – while US 10-year bond government bond yields are back... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3018212/trade-war-doubts-and-central-bank-loosening-have-done-unthinkable?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3018212/trade-war-doubts-and-central-bank-loosening-have-done-unthinkable?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 12 Jul 2019 23:30:15 +0000 The resurgence of US-China trade tensions is weighing on equity market performance in emerging Asia. This begs the question of whether prospective monetary and fiscal stimulus measures from China could give the region the needed boost – but markets would be wrong to pin their hopes on this. Recent data flow paints a weak picture of the economic fundamentals in the region. In China, the official manufacturing purchasing managers index, which gauges sentiment among factory operators, for May came... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3014501/amid-trade-war-asia-cannot-count-chinese-stimulus-boost-growth-time?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3014501/amid-trade-war-asia-cannot-count-chinese-stimulus-boost-growth-time?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 Jun 2019 09:00:10 +0000 After a strong start to 2019, China’s stock market rally has lost momentum. The Shanghai Composite Index is about 10 per cent down from its mid-April peak following a surge of more than 30 per cent since January. While the unexpected ratcheting up of US-China trade tensions has weighed heavily on investor sentiment in recent weeks, it has not been the only driver of weakness in Chinese equities. A closer look at last month’s market indicates investors were already less bullish before the trade... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3011450/even-trade-war-deal-us-wont-be-cure-all-chinas-economy-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3011450/even-trade-war-deal-us-wont-be-cure-all-chinas-economy-and?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 24 May 2019 03:00:14 +0000 Records are there to be broken, as the saying goes, and not just among investors. Following the strong rally since the start of this year, global stock markets now seem to be in the process of breaking the record highs set in 2018. In the US, the benchmark S&P 500 index has just done so, while the benchmark MSCI All-Country World Index is now just a touch below its record high set in early 2018 after stripping out currency effects. Lagging somewhat behind, the Chinese CSI 300 benchmark index is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3007625/will-markets-extend-their-record-breaking-run-2020-watch?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3007625/will-markets-extend-their-record-breaking-run-2020-watch?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Apr 2019 01:00:17 +0000 It has been a wild ride in markets, with global equities falling by 17 per cent between early October and late December, only to regain almost all of that in 2019. In hindsight, we can now discern the two principal drivers of those serious market moves, which should help us figure out where markets may go from here. First, global economic activity late last year took a much bigger hit from the US-China trade war than most analysts had anticipated. This was partly due to actual tariffs... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/3002650/federal-reserves-dovish-turn-might-be-short?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/3002650/federal-reserves-dovish-turn-might-be-short?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Mar 2019 03:30:10 +0000 What a difference a few months make. In 2018, Chinese equities had their worst performance in a decade, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 25 per cent. Last week, the Shanghai benchmark had its best weekly performance since mid-2015, which lifted the index to bull market territory. So far in 2019, Chinese equities have significantly outperformed other emerging and developed markets peers.  Sentiment has played a big role in driving the rally. Positive news in recent weeks has helped boost... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2189029/chinas-stimulus-plan-will-lift-economy-just?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2189029/chinas-stimulus-plan-will-lift-economy-just?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 08 Mar 2019 02:32:49 +0000 Global markets have been gripped by uncertainty. First, there is politics: uncertainty around the US-China trade situation, over the state of the US political system just after the government shutdown, around the future of the European Union with Brexit and European parliament elections looming, as well as over continuing issues in EU member countries such as Italy and France. Then there is uncertainty around the global growth outlook, which has shown serious signs of slowing, partly due to the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2184502/markets-should-expect-companies-lower-growth-expectations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2184502/markets-should-expect-companies-lower-growth-expectations?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 01 Feb 2019 02:30:00 +0000 Sometimes, it seems like financial markets can only focus on one big issue at a time. For much of last year, markets were mainly worried about the broad-based economic slowdown in China, which was a result of policymakers’ efforts to slowly wean the economy off its debt dependence. This hit emerging Asia equity markets hard, and they fell by more than 20 per cent in the first half of 2018. Then, towards the end of the year, markets turned their attention to worries about slowing growth and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2182619/why-chinas-economy-faces-bumpy-first-half-2019-even-if?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2182619/why-chinas-economy-faces-bumpy-first-half-2019-even-if?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Jan 2019 02:30:45 +0000 A sombre mood has gripped markets in the past few weeks as investors’ risk appetite has crumbled. Growth worries and weakness in technology stocks have stoked extreme turbulence, with most markets dipping significantly. And, this time, even the mighty US equity market has been caught up. It is now down by around 6 per cent from its September peak – nearly identical to the drop for Asian equity indices. Other risky assets, such as corporate bonds, have not fared much better. How did we get... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2175585/global-growth-faltering-and-gloom-hangs-over-markets-and-investors-just-how?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2175585/global-growth-faltering-and-gloom-hangs-over-markets-and-investors-just-how?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 30 Nov 2018 02:15:15 +0000 Watch stock markets patterns long enough and you pick up aspects of human psychology. The term “herding” is one example – the “herd instinct” mentality can cause people to gravitate towards the same or similar securities based almost solely on the fact that others are buying or selling them. Put another way, no one likes to be the first one on the dance floor. That’s particularly relevant now, as beaten-down Asian markets may be prompting investors following the flow to sell down their holdings.... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2172334/china-other-asian-markets-are-still-better-long-term-bet-developed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2172334/china-other-asian-markets-are-still-better-long-term-bet-developed?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 09 Nov 2018 02:30:15 +0000 As we enter the final quarter of 2018 and look back over the past months, it is quite clear that this year in markets has been characterised mostly by concerns and fear. This is a stark contrast to 2017, which had mostly been about hope. The surge in global growth that we witnessed in 2017 has moderated this year, and this has exposed worrying weaknesses in some economies. Faith in US economic strength spreading around the globe has been shaken by the US-China trade war. Worse, fears over an... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2168109/trade-war-rising-interest-rates-call-caution?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2168109/trade-war-rising-interest-rates-call-caution?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 12 Oct 2018 02:15:00 +0000 Geopolitical risk in financial markets can, at times, feel menacing and imminent. At other times, the source of geopolitical risk can seem far away, and yet there is a clear impact at home.  Recent developments in emerging markets are a case in point. The weakness in emerging market assets this year was originally largely driven by geopolitical worries around the protracted trade tensions between the US and China, at a time when the Chinese economy is going through a phase of restructuring and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2163069/contagion-fear-emerging-markets-currency-crises-spook?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2163069/contagion-fear-emerging-markets-currency-crises-spook?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 07 Sep 2018 02:30:00 +0000 Global equity markets have struggled to gain momentum this year as investors have fretted about the end of the long-running bull market and second-guessed the state of the global economic cycle. However, given that economic fundamentals remain pretty solid, it is probably too early to worry. Perhaps the most important part of market fundamentals are corporate profits – and here we are currently seeing an impressive display of strength in the quarterly earnings season, particularly so in the US.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2158002/when-earnings-are-why-are-investors?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2158002/when-earnings-are-why-are-investors?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Aug 2018 02:00:45 +0000 It’s easy to blame the current noise and volatility in financial markets on the brewing trade spat between the United States and a range of countries, most notably China. But scratch a little beneath the surface and there is a bigger underlying worry: the economic cycle is undeniably getting very long in the tooth. How much longer can it run? Most of this discussion in financial markets anchors around the US economy. As maddeningly as this US-centred approach can often feel to investors in Asia,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/2152926/it-time-cash-out-stock-markets-how-investors-should-react-signs-coming?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/article/2152926/it-time-cash-out-stock-markets-how-investors-should-react-signs-coming?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Jun 2018 08:00:00 +0000