https://www.scmp.com/rss/328265/feed Lucio Blanco Pitlo III is president of the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies and research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Lucio Blanco Pitlo III Lucio Blanco Pitlo III Escalating clashes in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China have not only raised the urgency of a regional Code of Conduct but have created a volatile environment where the threshold for war is lowering and red lines are vanishing. As diplomatic efforts stall, the fraught ties between Manila and Beijing are creating a complex crisis defined by six key risks, ranging from the normalisation of violent skirmishes to a dangerous entanglement with cross-strait tensions. First, there... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3341871/south-china-sea-6-risks-facing-philippines-and-china-conflict-threshold-lowers?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3341871/south-china-sea-6-risks-facing-philippines-and-china-conflict-threshold-lowers?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 01 Feb 2026 03:00:32 +0000 Lucio Blanco Pitlo III Lucio Blanco Pitlo III China’s plan to designate the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea as a national marine nature reserve has drawn strong objections from the Philippines. The timing of the move hints at Beijing’s growing discontent with its neighbour’s policies, notably Manila’s move to normalise the presence of foreign navies in the region and its warming ties with Taiwan. To many, China’s latest ploy is a fresh attempt to change the facts on the ground, using environmental rhetoric to consolidate... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3326166/will-chinas-marine-reserve-gambit-push-philippines-breaking-point?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3326166/will-chinas-marine-reserve-gambit-push-philippines-breaking-point?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 20 Sep 2025 06:00:22 +0000 Lucio Blanco Pitlo III Lucio Blanco Pitlo III Poor optics, lacklustre results and sparse details describe the recent visit of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr to the United States. The outcome of the trip – the first by a Southeast Asian head of state under the second Trump administration – raises questions about whether Manila is able to fully leverage its long-standing alliance with the US. The terms of the trade deal – of 19 per cent tariffs being imposed on Philippine goods entering the US market, compared to no tariffs for US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3319835/why-us-alliance-didnt-save-philippines-trumps-tariffs?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3319835/why-us-alliance-didnt-save-philippines-trumps-tariffs?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 28 Jul 2025 12:30:21 +0000 Lucio Blanco Pitlo III Lucio Blanco Pitlo III June 9 marks the 50th anniversary of Philippines-China relations, ties steeped in history but marred by friction in recent years. Sadly, an overemphasis on the intractable sea dispute has polluted broader connections, stunting economic cooperation and stigmatising people-to-people exchanges. This is irrational and unproductive. For Manila to make the sea row front and centre of ties is a tragedy of its foreign policy. For China to see its smaller neighbour as a mere pawn in its great power... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3313073/50-years-history-manila-and-beijing-should-do-better-diplomacy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3313073/50-years-history-manila-and-beijing-should-do-better-diplomacy?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 05 Jun 2025 21:30:07 +0000 The dramatic surrender of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte to the International Criminal Court on Tuesday further polarised a country already reeling from political strife – with the impeachment of his daughter, Vice-President Sara Duterte, dominating headlines and crucial midterm elections just weeks away. While questions of jurisdiction and due process surrounding the ICC’s actions may now be moot, the Philippines’ decision to hand over one of its own nationals undermines its... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3302455/what-dutertes-arrest-means-philippine-politics-and-its-global-standing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3302455/what-dutertes-arrest-means-philippine-politics-and-its-global-standing?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 15 Mar 2025 04:00:15 +0000 From rail links to trade deals, growing economic interdependence and connectivity is deepening ties between China and Southeast Asia. China has been Asean’s largest trade partner since 2009, while the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has risen to become China’s largest trade partner since 2020. Ties were elevated to a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2021 and last year was designated as the Asean-China Year of People-to-People Exchange. This year, both sides aim to finalise the third... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3299677/how-provincial-ties-can-deepen-asean-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3299677/how-provincial-ties-can-deepen-asean-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 22 Feb 2025 04:00:17 +0000 A foreign aid freeze, uncertain security guarantees and fears of being marginalised in great power deals have stirred unease in the Philippines as US President Donald Trump’s policy takes form. The opening salvo of the second Trump term has sent jitters through Manila, which stands on the front line of regional flashpoints. Beyond strategic and security issues, the plight of undocumented immigrants, continuity for pledged projects and a clear economic game plan to compete with China will be key... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3298007/can-us-keep-upper-hand-over-china-philippines?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3298007/can-us-keep-upper-hand-over-china-philippines?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 11 Feb 2025 21:30:08 +0000 The Philippines’ coming midterm elections in May, the incoming Donald Trump administration and last year’s violent maritime clashes may keep bilateral ties between Manila and Beijing volatile. Leaders on both sides interested in easing tensions and preventing conflict have their work cut out for them. Luckily, economics could bind the two countries together while improved diplomatic efforts can moderate bellicosity. As the Philippines and China mark the 50th anniversary of official ties, both... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3294552/manila-and-beijing-can-still-choose-cooperation-over-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3294552/manila-and-beijing-can-still-choose-cooperation-over-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Jan 2025 21:30:09 +0000 The Philippines’ coming midterm elections in May, the incoming Donald Trump administration and last year’s violent maritime clashes may keep bilateral ties between Manila and Beijing volatile. Leaders on both sides interested in easing tensions and preventing conflict have their work cut out for them. Luckily, economics could bind the two countries together while improved diplomatic efforts can moderate bellicosity. As the Philippines and China mark the 50th anniversary of official ties, both... https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3294683/manila-and-beijing-can-still-choose-cooperation-over-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3294683/manila-and-beijing-can-still-choose-cooperation-over-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 14 Jan 2025 08:38:19 +0000 The Asia-Pacific region, home to the world’s fastest-growing digital economies, is critically dependent on undersea cables, yet this vital infrastructure remains underappreciated and vulnerable. Stretching across oceans and seabeds, these fibre-optic cables carry 95 per cent of global data, forming the backbone of our digital age. Despite the rise of low Earth orbit satellites, undersea cables remain the dominant conduits of online traffic – a reality unlikely to change soon, especially in Asia... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3287781/asias-digital-future-hangs-thread-beneath-ocean-waves?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3287781/asias-digital-future-hangs-thread-beneath-ocean-waves?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 24 Nov 2024 04:00:09 +0000 The Philippines’ transparency overdrive and alliance build-up to deter China in the West Philippine Sea have earned praise and rebuke. How does the strategy measure up against desired results? What did it achieve and is it due for calibration? Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, the Philippines pursued a new approach in the maritime hotspot. Manila adopted a transparency initiative to expose China’s grey zone actions that have disrupted regular economic and security activities around the... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3275670/why-philippines-should-rethink-its-south-china-sea-name-and-shame-game?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3275670/why-philippines-should-rethink-its-south-china-sea-name-and-shame-game?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 25 Aug 2024 03:00:18 +0000 Just weeks after one of the most violent incidents between the Philippines and China, high-level diplomats from both sides met in Manila to de-escalate rising tensions. The ninth round of the bilateral consultation mechanism was a welcome respite, given a string of close calls in contested waters. Although expectations remain low, the talks put a momentary pause on an otherwise dangerous downward turn between the two countries. Since its first meeting in 2017, the consultation mechanism has been... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3269608/south-china-sea-despite-clashes-beijing-and-manila-must-keep-talking?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3269608/south-china-sea-despite-clashes-beijing-and-manila-must-keep-talking?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 10 Jul 2024 01:30:09 +0000 Lucio Blanco Pitlo III Lucio Blanco Pitlo III As a global peace summit in Switzerland nears, Ukraine is stepping up efforts to court Asian attendance. President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise appearance at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, an annual gathering of defence and military officials from the region and beyond. In his working visit to the affluent city state, he spoke to new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and President Tharman Shanmugaratnam. Two days later, he flew to Manila, where he met Philippine President... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3265835/lesson-philippines-external-lifelines-ukraine-woos-asia-peace-summit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3265835/lesson-philippines-external-lifelines-ukraine-woos-asia-peace-summit?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 09 Jun 2024 03:00:11 +0000 The supposed “gentleman’s agreement” between the Philippines and China over the South China Sea during the previous Duterte administration – stirred a hornet’s nest. Former presidential spokesman Harry Roque argued that the informal pact was meant to keep the status quo in choppy waters, including in the Second Thomas Shoal, where both sides recently figured in dangerous run-ins. Retired Supreme Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio called the deal a “disguised surrender” of the country’s... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3258013/duterte-xi-pact-how-philippines-domestic-politics-can-affect-management-south-china-sea-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3258013/duterte-xi-pact-how-philippines-domestic-politics-can-affect-management-south-china-sea-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 06 Apr 2024 02:00:21 +0000 The Philippines is going all in with the United States and bracing itself against lost Chinese largesse. President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr will fly to Washington next month to attend the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral leaders’ summit. It will be his fourth visit to the US since taking office as president less than two years ago. His trip comes as tensions in the South China Sea intensify and economic ties with Manila’s top trade partner begin to suffer. A recent report by the Griffith Asia... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3256605/south-china-sea-philippines-must-softly-manage-disputes-or-miss-out-economically?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3256605/south-china-sea-philippines-must-softly-manage-disputes-or-miss-out-economically?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 26 Mar 2024 21:30:11 +0000 The Philippines has become a laboratory in responding to Beijing on the South China Sea row, taking the most risk but showing inconsistency and underwhelming results thus far. Its predicament explains why other Southeast Asian claimant states remain unlikely to follow its lead. The tepid reaction to Manila’s pitch for an Asean claimants-only Code of Conduct is indicative. As had happened in the past, lost economic opportunities and further erosion of Manila’s position in the flashpoint, relative... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3252189/philippines-counts-cost-tough-south-china-sea-stance-against-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3252189/philippines-counts-cost-tough-south-china-sea-stance-against-beijing?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 Feb 2024 08:44:43 +0000 The election of William Lai Ching-te as Taipei’s leader portends turbulence across the Taiwan Strait. For Southeast Asia, the hotspot is now more dangerous, given the actors involved and the importance they attach to the issue, the dearth of formal dialogue between the direct parties, Beijing’s non-disavowal of the use of force and the deadlines floated for unification. The Taiwan Strait is connected to the South China Sea, another regional hotspot where both Beijing and Taipei, along with four... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3249803/amid-rising-tensions-across-taiwan-strait-asean-has-tread-carefully?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3249803/amid-rising-tensions-across-taiwan-strait-asean-has-tread-carefully?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 Jan 2024 21:30:10 +0000 Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Hanoi last week underpinned Vietnam’s growing global profile, with major powers courting the Southeast Asian country. Vietnam recently upgraded its ties with the United States and Japan to “strategic comprehensive partnerships”. During Xi’s trip, it endorsed China’s vision of a community with a “shared future”. Beijing’s three new projects – the Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative and Global Civilisation Initiative – also reportedly... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245635/amid-us-china-rivalry-vietnams-sweet-spot-diplomacy-master-class?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245635/amid-us-china-rivalry-vietnams-sweet-spot-diplomacy-master-class?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Dec 2023 01:30:16 +0000 Territorial and maritime disputes should not be the sum of bilateral ties, but with the South China Sea row between Manila and Beijing rearing its ugly head again, maintaining high-level security dialogue should be key to reducing tensions amid geopolitical skirmishes in the region. In reality, both countries recognise this and have made efforts to boost ties. Three high-level Chinese officials visited the Philippines last year, while China expert and renowned journalist Jaime FlorCruz was... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3241899/amid-choppy-south-china-sea-waters-philippines-and-beijing-should-boost-dialogue-calm-tense-ties?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3241899/amid-choppy-south-china-sea-waters-philippines-and-beijing-should-boost-dialogue-calm-tense-ties?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 19 Nov 2023 02:00:29 +0000 Renewed fighting in Gaza may undermine the hard-earned gains in fostering peace in the Middle East. It may also hamper the region’s desire to transition from being a security minefield to a contributor in addressing global issues like climate change. The conflict will also stretch the diplomatic capacity of great powers, notably the United States and China. Before the October 7 attack by Hamas, peace was gaining momentum. The US had promoted normalisation between Israel and several Arab... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3241365/israel-gaza-war-risks-middle-east-peace-gains-and-tests-us-china-diplomacy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3241365/israel-gaza-war-risks-middle-east-peace-gains-and-tests-us-china-diplomacy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 14 Nov 2023 12:30:11 +0000 The Philippines’ first sovereign wealth fund is by far the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s biggest gambit. But it may also provide an opportunity for his government to leverage commodities and strategic real estate to boost development, amid criticisms surrounding the Maharlika Investment Fund’s [MIF] sources of funding and governance structure. In his second State of the Nation Address on July 24, Marcos Jnr said: “For strategic financing, some of the nation’s high-priority... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3230750/how-philippines-first-sovereign-wealth-fund-can-succeed-against-all-odds?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3230750/how-philippines-first-sovereign-wealth-fund-can-succeed-against-all-odds?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 12 Aug 2023 03:00:12 +0000 The visit of former Philippine President President Rodrigo Duterte to China on Monday was a private effort to steady ties troubled by maritime incidents and Manila’s rapid tilt towards its long-time ally, the United States. It was a surprise twist a week ahead of the second State of the Nation Address of his successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, that put the country’s sharp foreign policy swings on the spot. While it’s unclear whether the trip had official blessing, Marcos said he welcomed “any new... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3228521/philippines-china-relations-marcos-can-learn-dutertes-diplomacy-recent-beijing-visit-shows?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3228521/philippines-china-relations-marcos-can-learn-dutertes-diplomacy-recent-beijing-visit-shows?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 22 Jul 2023 02:30:15 +0000 Last week, the French navy’s Aquitaine-class destroyer Lorraine made a port call in the Philippines after departing Japan. The itinerary is part of the ship’s long-duration deployment to the region. The port call coincided with the visit of Rear Admiral Geoffroy d’Andigné, joint commander of the French armed forces in the Asia-Pacific, to Manila where he met senior foreign affairs, defence and military officials. This demonstrates France’s desire to play a greater role in the Indo-Pacific as a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3226798/frances-indo-pacific-foray-going-full-steam-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3226798/frances-indo-pacific-foray-going-full-steam-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 07 Jul 2023 19:30:12 +0000 As defence chiefs and security experts from the Asia-Pacific and beyond gathered in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue, coastguards from the Philippines, the United States and Japan held their first joint drills in the disputed South China Sea last week. The move was part of a growing web of minilateral security groupings emerging in response to shared security concerns. In a way, they presage the renaissance of the US-led alliance system in the region, this time featuring not only the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3223752/coastguard-drills-philippines-japan-latest-sign-us-driven-security-cooperation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3223752/coastguard-drills-philippines-japan-latest-sign-us-driven-security-cooperation?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 12 Jun 2023 08:30:08 +0000 Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden on Monday is a further sign of strengthened ties between the defence allies as tensions in regional hotspots like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait continue to simmer. The trip comes on the heels of expanded US military access to the Southeast Asian country with four new sites opened up, and three days after the conclusion of one of the biggest annual war games between the two nations. Marcos Jnr... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3219058/philippines-marcos-set-talk-trade-defence-biden-amid-south-china-sea-taiwan-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3219058/philippines-marcos-set-talk-trade-defence-biden-amid-south-china-sea-taiwan-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 01 May 2023 16:29:00 +0000 Some 18,000 soldiers are taking part in the 38th Balikatan exercises, one of the biggest joint annual military drills between long-time allies the Philippines and United States. The exercises, which started on April 11 and will end on April 28, are double the size of last year’s, with two-thirds of participants being American troops. The scale and context by which the exercises take place, against the backdrop of tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, mark a shift in Manila’s foreign... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3217121/us-philippine-drills-further-sign-manila-may-be-picking-sides-amid-south-china-sea-taiwan-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3217121/us-philippine-drills-further-sign-manila-may-be-picking-sides-amid-south-china-sea-taiwan-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 15 Apr 2023 02:00:12 +0000 Two Taiwanese leaders were heading in opposite directions this week in moves that will have a bearing on local politics, cross-strait ties and US-China relations. As incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen visited Central America with crucial stopovers in the United States, former President Ma Ying-jeou made a landmark journey to mainland China. Tsai and Ma come from the two dominant parties in Taiwanese politics, which represent diverging views on how to chart the self-ruled island’s future. Their... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3215569/taiwanese-leaders-duelling-trips-offer-lessons-age-great-power-struggle?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3215569/taiwanese-leaders-duelling-trips-offer-lessons-age-great-power-struggle?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 01 Apr 2023 02:00:18 +0000 Long-time treaty allies Washington and Manila are set to boost their relationship with the renewal and expansion of their military accord amid the ongoing US-China rivalry. The Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows American troops to stay and operate facilities in the Philippines, is due to be renewed next year for a second 10-year lease. The US military will be able to access nine Philippine sites, up from the current five original agreed locations. The refreshed EDCA... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3212215/will-philippines-expanded-military-pact-drag-manila-possible-us-china-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3212215/will-philippines-expanded-military-pact-drag-manila-possible-us-china-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 05 Mar 2023 01:00:16 +0000 The recent Philippine Supreme Court ruling that a 2005 tripartite deal for joint petroleum exploration in the South China Sea is unconstitutional could dash hopes of pursuing practical cooperation and prolong conflict in the disputed region. The ruling stems from the controversial 2005 Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking between the national oil companies of the Philippines, Vietnam, and China, which began as a bilateral arrangement between Manila and Beijing the year before. The deal expired in... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3209037/south-china-sea-philippines-ruling-could-shut-door-joint-energy-deals-embolden-beijings-claims?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3209037/south-china-sea-philippines-ruling-could-shut-door-joint-energy-deals-embolden-beijings-claims?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 04 Feb 2023 01:00:14 +0000 Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr heads to China on Tuesday for a three-day visit that is expected to set the tone for bilateral ties in the next six years, reel in trade and investment pledges, and a possible settlement to a long-running maritime spat. The trip will mark a series of firsts for the Philippine president – he will be the first foreign leader Beijing will host this year, and it will be his first state visit to a major power. Marcos Jnr’s visit comes amid renewed tensions in... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3205329/philippines-marcos-heads-beijing-trade-investment-and-maritime-issues-his-mind?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3205329/philippines-marcos-heads-beijing-trade-investment-and-maritime-issues-his-mind?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 Jan 2023 10:25:30 +0000 President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has signalled his intentions to shift Sino-Philippines relations to a higher gear by naming a veteran China expert as ambassador to Beijing. The nomination of Jaime FlorCruz, former CNN Beijing bureau chief and long-time China resident may also help Marcos Jnr shape a more informed policy towards the Philippines’ largest trade partner. FlorCruz will take over for long-time friend and fellow China hand, Jose Santiago Sta Romana. The latter served as Manila’s top... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3199290/manilas-new-china-envoy-key-marcos-jnrs-plan-improve-bilateral-ties?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3199290/manilas-new-china-envoy-key-marcos-jnrs-plan-improve-bilateral-ties?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 13 Nov 2022 01:00:14 +0000 President Xi Jinping, poised for a third term, is set to become China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. A fresh mandate from the 20th Communist Party Congress signals continuity and institutionalisation for his signature policies, including the Belt and Road Initiative. Belt and road projects have continued to roll even at the height of Covid-19, most notably in Southeast Asia. While investments elsewhere suffered contractions due to disruptions brought on by the pandemic, funding for... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3196654/what-xi-jinpings-third-term-means-belt-and-road-china-asean-ties?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3196654/what-xi-jinpings-third-term-means-belt-and-road-china-asean-ties?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 21 Oct 2022 01:00:10 +0000 President Joe Biden’s recent remarks that the United States will commit troops to defend Taiwan fired up debate on whether Washington’s view towards the island is shifting away from a long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” to a more clear approach. This reiteration of previous impromptu statements he made on the matter sent made waves among allies who may be on the frontline should the US respond to a Taiwan contingency. The Philippines, its former colony and long-time ally in Asia, comes... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3194358/philippines-doomed-be-dragged-us-china-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3194358/philippines-doomed-be-dragged-us-china-conflict-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 01 Oct 2022 01:00:13 +0000 As Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr builds on the momentum of his predecessor’s ambitious infrastructure programme, he has made railways the new focus amid China’s investment interest in three projects. Marcos Jnr has proclaimed infrastructure to be “the backbone of an economy” and a “necessary element” to improve other sectors such as agriculture, tourism and even governance. The president previously lamented that the Philippines had “missed a great opportunity” to develop its rail... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3190272/philippines-must-iron-out-obstacles-get-china-board-its-railway?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3190272/philippines-must-iron-out-obstacles-get-china-board-its-railway?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 Aug 2022 01:00:28 +0000 Rising demand, diminishing resources and a looming energy crisis may set the stage for reviving talks for a proposed joint oil and gas development between Manila and Beijing in the West Philippine Sea. However, constitutional and legal constraints, and concern about undermining a 2016 arbitral award, complicate Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s desire to pursue a pragmatic way out of the country’s energy woes. Senator Robinhood Padilla on July 21 filed a resolution urging for the... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3188436/will-philippines-marcos-jnr-revive-talks-china-oil-deal-solve?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3188436/will-philippines-marcos-jnr-revive-talks-china-oil-deal-solve?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 11 Aug 2022 02:00:22 +0000 As newly-inaugurated President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr, son and namesake of the former Philippine strongman, begins forming his trade, security, and foreign policies, the United States and China are expected to seize the chance to reset ties amid a competing rivalry for influence. Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping were among the first world leaders to congratulate Marcos Jnr days after his electoral win. US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman became the first high-ranking foreign... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3184575/marcos-must-tread-cautiously-us-and-china-seek-reset-ties?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3184575/marcos-must-tread-cautiously-us-and-china-seek-reset-ties?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 09 Jul 2022 23:00:19 +0000 A day after sparring at the 2022 Shangri-La Dialogue, high-level officials from the United States and China met in Luxembourg to discuss a range of regional and global issues, including hot-button topics that directly bear on their relationship. Both sides recognise the risks of great power rivalry getting out of hand and are aiming to improve the management of their strategic competition. The meeting in the small European country may set the stage for the first face-to-face summit between... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3182089/us-china-talks-luxembourg-may-set-stage-biden-xi-face-face-summit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3182089/us-china-talks-luxembourg-may-set-stage-biden-xi-face-face-summit?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 18 Jun 2022 23:00:17 +0000 At long last, US President Joe Biden’s administration has unveiled what has been widely touted as the “meat to the bones” of its Indo-Pacific strategy. But as we move on from the pomp and pageantry of the American commander-in-chief’s maiden Asia visit, one cannot help but wonder if what was unveiled can endure and compete with China’s gargantuan and nine-year-old Belt and Road Initiative. On May 23 in Tokyo – the second stop of his two-nation Asia tour – Biden launched the Indo-Pacific Economic... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3180363/can-new-us-led-indo-pacific-economic-framework-really-compete?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3180363/can-new-us-led-indo-pacific-economic-framework-really-compete?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 06 Jun 2022 00:00:10 +0000 It’s a question worth asking: is Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr’s emphatic victory in Monday’s presidential election a sign that the Philippines is now ready to come to terms with its past? The 64-year-old’s landslide win has rekindled memories of his father Ferdinand Marcos Snr’s rule from 1965 to 1986. Part of that tenure involved a 14-year martial law period that began in 1972 – a polarising chapter in the country’s history. Depending on one’s perspective and political allegiance, the late... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3177185/philippine-election-marcos-win-sign-nostalgia-his-fathers?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3177185/philippine-election-marcos-win-sign-nostalgia-his-fathers?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 10 May 2022 09:28:15 +0000 Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has kept observers guessing as to his true thoughts on next week’s presidential polls. The popular incumbent initially expressed little interest in the May 9 election, but has since endorsed several local and senatorial aspirants – and supported the vice-presidential bid of his daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio. He has yet to anoint a successor, but may yet weigh in at the most decisive moment. Given how fluid the run-up to this heated contest has been, a... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3176416/dutertes-last-minute-endorsement-could-seal-deal-bongbong-marcos?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3176416/dutertes-last-minute-endorsement-could-seal-deal-bongbong-marcos?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 04 May 2022 02:00:30 +0000 The Solomon Islands must have run out of red carpet after welcoming senior officials from Australia, the United States and Japan in quick succession. The South Pacific archipelago might not have anticipated the intense reaction to its recent security agreement with China, especially from the region’s traditional powers. But while this accord was not China’s first foray into Oceania, a foothold in the Solomons will be a milestone in its long swim across the Pacific. China has already become the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176343/why-china-solomon-islands-pact-making-waves-pacific?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176343/why-china-solomon-islands-pact-making-waves-pacific?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 03 May 2022 17:30:20 +0000 Weeks ahead of the Philippine election, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jnr – son and namesake of the late strongman Marcos – is the clear front runner and on the verge of becoming the 17th president. Multiple surveys indicate he enjoys a commanding lead over his rivals for the top job in the country of 110 million people, where more than 67 million are eligible voters. Should the indications from the polls translate to actual votes, the former senator will join the who’s who of Asian “princelings”... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3175187/bongbong-marcos-sara-duterte-and-benigno-aquino-look-philippine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3175187/bongbong-marcos-sara-duterte-and-benigno-aquino-look-philippine?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 24 Apr 2022 03:00:27 +0000 After coastguard vessels from the Philippines and China were involved in a near-collision in early March in the disputed South China Sea, it took almost a month before the public was made aware of the incident. A similar delay occurred in making the activities of a Chinese surveillance ship public after it sailed through the Philippines’ Sulu Sea in late January and early February. Such considerable reporting lags may indicate a shared desire by both Manila and Beijing to manage sea incidents... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3173213/beijings-south-china-sea-boldness-puts-philippines-foreign-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3173213/beijings-south-china-sea-boldness-puts-philippines-foreign-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Apr 2022 05:15:12 +0000 In a move likely to soothe frayed alliance ties, the Philippines has offered the use of its facilities to the United States should the conflict in Ukraine expand to Asia. Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez made the comments last week when asked whether President Rodrigo Duterte would attend the coming Asean-US Summit in Washington. The pitch may reassure the US and its allies who are concerned Duterte’s personal warm ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and sympathy... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3170811/why-philippines-offered-open-bases-us-use-if-ukraine-war-spreads?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3170811/why-philippines-offered-open-bases-us-use-if-ukraine-war-spreads?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 17 Mar 2022 09:00:25 +0000 When Filipinos go to the polls in May this year to elect a new leader, it could mark a shift in Manila’s position on the disputed South China Sea, and a turning point in the Philippines’ relations with the US – its security ally – and China, its largest trading partner. Whoever replaces Rodrigo Duterte as president, and there are five leading contenders for the role, he or she will be faced with three dilemmas upon taking power. First is how to expand economic relations with China to drive... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3162753/us-china-asean-three-dilemmas-facing-philippines-new-leader?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3162753/us-china-asean-three-dilemmas-facing-philippines-new-leader?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 10 Jan 2022 04:00:23 +0000 Last Thursday, Laos celebrated the completion of its first high-speed railway, a US$6 billion project backed by China. The inauguration came just a few weeks after Vietnam opened its first metro line in Hanoi, also built by China. These infrastructure projects are proof that Beijing’s massive Belt and Road Initiative continues to break ground even amid a pandemic, with far-reaching implications for Southeast Asia. They will no doubt burnish Beijing’s appeal as a vital partner in promoting... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3158184/how-chinas-belt-and-road-connecting-southeast-asia-political?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3158184/how-chinas-belt-and-road-connecting-southeast-asia-political?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 04 Dec 2021 11:00:18 +0000 The Aukus deal that will equip Australia with nuclear-powered submarines may have caught many by surprise. Southeast Asian countries have expressed concern about the development. But they, too, have been shoring up their maritime capabilities in recent years in response to evolving threats. Even the pandemic is unlikely to reverse this trend and will, at best, only delay some acquisitions. Maintaining regional stability as they upgrade their maritime inventory is crucial. The momentum to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3154164/even-aukus-southeast-asian-nations-have-been-busy-shoring-their?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3154164/even-aukus-southeast-asian-nations-have-been-busy-shoring-their?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 01 Nov 2021 02:15:14 +0000 The Philippines was the first country in Southeast Asia to unequivocally support the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (Aukus) trilateral security deal, when Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jnr welcomed the move. But a possible calibration is now on the horizon. In a statement at the time, Locsin said Southeast Asian countries – individually or collectively – did not have the capacity to address the imbalance of forces in the region, a reference to China’s growing military prowess. Beijing... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3151337/philippines-rethinking-its-initial-aukus-support?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3151337/philippines-rethinking-its-initial-aukus-support?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Oct 2021 05:30:17 +0000 The Taliban’s capture of Kabul puts the two-decade-old Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on the spot. The eight-member body brings together all relevant regional parties, including four nuclear powers, that have a huge stake in the stability of Afghanistan. China, Russia, India and Pakistan are members of the SCO, while Iran is an observer. All of Afghanistan’s neighbours save for Turkmenistan are part of the grouping, and even Afghanistan itself is an observer. Thus, the US-led... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3146309/why-talibans-return-power-puts-onus-afghanistans-neighbours-step?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3146309/why-talibans-return-power-puts-onus-afghanistans-neighbours-step?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 25 Aug 2021 19:30:37 +0000 Inaugurating the first completed China-funded infrastructure project by day and meeting high-level US officials by night, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s diplomatic balancing act continued nine months before the 2022 election. The two crucial itineraries were packed in the leader’s tight schedule on July 29. The move exemplified the juggling act that the Southeast Asian country has been treading as rivalry between its two key partners deepens. Duterte led the inauguration of the new... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3143768/caught-us-china-rivalry-duterte-keeps-deft-balance-eye-2022?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3143768/caught-us-china-rivalry-duterte-keeps-deft-balance-eye-2022?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Aug 2021 17:00:13 +0000