https://www.scmp.com/rss/330009/feed Yi Fuxian is a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and author of "Big Country with an Empty Nest". en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Chinese overcapacity is raising concerns worldwide. It is easy to see why: China accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s manufacturing value added and one-fifth of global manufacturing exports. But there is good reason to believe that the decline of China’s manufacturing sector is imminent. To understand what is happening now in China, it is worth recalling Japan’s recent history. After World War II, Japan’s manufacturing sector grew rapidly, thanks largely to access to the massive US... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3276304/chinese-manufacturing-set-follow-path-japans-decline?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3276304/chinese-manufacturing-set-follow-path-japans-decline?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 29 Aug 2024 06:30:13 +0000 After the fiasco of the selective two-child policy, the universal two-child policy and the three-child policy, China introduced new policies at the third plenum of the Communist Party’s 20th Central Committee to address population ageing and the country’s declining birth rate. These policies include lowering the cost of childbirth, parenting and education, providing couples with children with childbirth subsidies, tax breaks, affordable childcare and possibly longer parental leave. In fact, the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3271573/solutions-chinas-birth-rate-problem-dont-lie-japans-playbook?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3271573/solutions-chinas-birth-rate-problem-dont-lie-japans-playbook?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 25 Jul 2024 21:30:09 +0000 In April, the United Nations estimated that India had overtaken China as the world’s most populous country. While the announcement received a great deal of media attention, India’s 2024 census is likely to reveal that the UN’s projections have been vastly overestimated. According to India’s most recent census data, the country’s population stood at 1.03 billion people in 2001 and 1.21 billion in 2011. The UN’s 2022 World Population Prospects (WPP) report, however, put these figures at 1.08... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221496/what-un-got-wrong-about-chinas-and-indias-populations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221496/what-un-got-wrong-about-chinas-and-indias-populations?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 May 2023 19:30:11 +0000 At a recent press conference, China’s new premier Li Qiang argued that the country’s demographic dividend had not disappeared, even though the population is declining. He supported his claim with impressive-sounding figures: China has nearly 900 million working-age people, out of a population of 1.4 billion, with more than 15 million people joining the workforce every year. But should we believe these numbers? An examination of Chinese demographic data reveals clear and frequent discrepancies.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216010/can-chinas-new-premier-raise-birth-rate-and-avoid-demographic-collapse?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216010/can-chinas-new-premier-raise-birth-rate-and-avoid-demographic-collapse?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Apr 2023 19:30:15 +0000 China’s population decline, which the central government officially confirmed in January, has led many observers to wonder if the country’s current demographic trends threaten its stability. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s population shrank last year for the first time in 60 years, nine years earlier than government projections had anticipated. The total fertility rate fell to about 1.1 births per woman, well below the official forecast of 1.8. Most notably, the number of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210297/without-overcoming-its-fertility-challenge-china-risks-dying-out-it-gets-rich?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210297/without-overcoming-its-fertility-challenge-china-risks-dying-out-it-gets-rich?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Feb 2023 11:00:15 +0000 One of the reasons for the deterioration of US-China relations is the exaggerated forecasts of China’s economy. Government economists such as Justin Yifu Lin and David Daokui Li have predicted that China’s per capita GDP will be half or even 70 per cent of the US’, while its overall GDP will be twice or even triple that of its rival by 2050. The Chinese authorities are pleased with these forecasts and are pursuing strategic expansion accordingly. Other countries, such as the US, have also been... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3122898/us-china-relations-squabble-between-ageing-superpowers-not-what?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3122898/us-china-relations-squabble-between-ageing-superpowers-not-what?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 24 Feb 2021 17:15:10 +0000 China has replaced its one-child policy with the two-child policy, and is expected to abolish population control soon. However, the impact of the one-child policy on China’s economy, society, politics and national mentality will last for a long time. If China’s economy is compared to a plane, the 1979 policy of reform and opening up ignited the fuel – the young workers – that drove the economy to take off and fly at high speeds for four decades. But the one-child policy cut off this economic... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3113424/chinas-one-child-policy-casts-long-shadow-over-its-economy-society?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3113424/chinas-one-child-policy-casts-long-shadow-over-its-economy-society?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 12 Dec 2020 00:15:14 +0000 Covid-19 has killed over 380,000 people across the globe, including 100,000 in the United States. A less obvious implication is that the virus may take a heavy toll on new births.  The lockdown measures and travel bans imposed by many governments around the world are expected to send the global economy into deep recession, making people less willing to marry or have children. The younger generation, facing dim economic and job prospects, is likely to postpone or reconsider marriage and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3087213/coronavirus-huge-hidden-cost-millions-unborn-babies-across-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3087213/coronavirus-huge-hidden-cost-millions-unborn-babies-across-world?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Jun 2020 19:00:08 +0000 China’s official demographic data in 2019 has seriously overestimated the country’s actual birth rate and population size, a grave mistake that will lead to disastrous policymaking if leaders blindly take these numbers as fact．  My estimates show that China’s actual population size should be 1.279 billion at the end of 2019, or 121 million fewer than the officially stated 1.4 billion. The actual number of births in China last year should be about 10 million instead of 14.65 million, as reported... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3047798/how-chinese-officials-inflated-nations-birth-rate-and-population?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3047798/how-chinese-officials-inflated-nations-birth-rate-and-population?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Jan 2020 03:00:12 +0000 China’s official demographic figures, including the now-cliched “country of 1.4 billion people”, seriously misrepresent the country’s real population landscape. The real size of China’s population could be 115 million fewer than the official number, putting China behind India in terms of population. This massive error, equal to the combined populations of the United Kingdom and Spain, is a product of China’s rigged population statistics system, influenced by the vested interests of China’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3018829/chinas-population-numbers-are-almost-certainly-inflated-hide?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3018829/chinas-population-numbers-are-almost-certainly-inflated-hide?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 20 Jul 2019 06:00:06 +0000 In 2010, China replaced Japan as the world’s second-largest economy. Many economists believe it is just a matter of time before China dethrones the United States as the world’s biggest economy – some have argued that it could happen before 2030. They have cited the history of other Asian economies which surged ahead as evidence. The nominal per capita gross domestic product of China was just a sixth of America’s in 2018 – a level similar to Japan in 1960, Taiwan in 1978 and South Korea in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/yi-fuxian-china-will-never-catch-us-economy-thanks-population-aging/article/3003790?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/yi-fuxian-china-will-never-catch-us-economy-thanks-population-aging/article/3003790?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Mar 2019 07:44:27 +0000 In 2010, China replaced Japan as the world's second-largest economy. Many economists believe it is just a matter of time before China dethrones the United States as the world’s biggest economy – some have argued that it could happen before 2030.  They have cited the history of other Asian economies as evidence to back the claim. The nominal per capita gross domestic product of China was just a sixth of America’s in 2018 – a level similar to Japan in 1960, Taiwan in 1978 and South Korea in 1986.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3003524/ageing-china-simply-cannot-overtake-us-economy-worlds?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/3003524/ageing-china-simply-cannot-overtake-us-economy-worlds?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 28 Mar 2019 17:00:12 +0000 China first began to promote population control in 1973 and introduced its one-child policy in 1980. As a result, its total fertility rate, or births per woman, dropped from 4.54 in 1973 to 2.29 in 1989, then to 1.22 in 2000 and 1.05 (then the lowest in the world) in 2015. Japan’s low fertility rate triggered an economic crisis in the 1990s. By 1992, Japan’s median age had increased to 38.5 (China hit that figure in 2016), while its old-age dependency ratio – the number of people aged 65-plus... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2180421/worse-japan-how-chinas-looming-demographic-crisis-will?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2180421/worse-japan-how-chinas-looming-demographic-crisis-will?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 03 Jan 2019 17:30:15 +0000