https://www.scmp.com/rss/500319/feed Moritz Kraemer is chief economist and head of research at LBBW (Landesbank Baden-Württemberg), Stuttgart, Germany. He was previously chief economic adviser of Acreditus, a Dubai-based financial advisory firm, and a chief global ratings officer for sovereigns at S&P Global. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Moritz Kraemer Moritz Kraemer For developing nations, the storm clouds of deglobalisation and climate change grow darker by the day. These challenges demand an increasingly prominent role for the state, not only as a buffer against the economic shocks that disproportionately harm the most vulnerable but also as an architect of resilience. Governments in poorer countries must fund vast investments in infrastructure, sustainable energy, healthcare and education to inject dynamism into their economies. But the unresolved... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3328125/developing-economies-face-tough-reforms-global-aid-and-credit-shrink?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3328125/developing-economies-face-tough-reforms-global-aid-and-credit-shrink?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 10 Oct 2025 08:30:07 +0000 The US debt ceiling controversy is coming to a head. In January, US federal government debt reached its legal limit. Since then, the government’s liquidity buffers have been dwindling as it continues to make payments. According to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the day of fiscal reckoning could come as early as June 1. The regular raising of the debt ceiling by Congress is now a well-rehearsed routine. Mostly, it goes through without a whimper. But not this time. The Biden administration’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221441/us-teeters-edge-debt-default-why-are-its-rating-agencies-silent?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221441/us-teeters-edge-debt-default-why-are-its-rating-agencies-silent?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 May 2023 16:30:09 +0000 Despite their best efforts, the global community once again disappointed at the COP27 UN climate change conference in Sharm el-Sheikh last fall. Specifically, it fell well short of making concrete headway on delivering the financial support to the most climate-vulnerable developing countries. This had been promised since at least the climate summit in Copenhagen in 2009. Back then, a goal was set for mobilising US$100 billion a year in public and private finance by 2020. This goal has never been... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210865/g20-led-finance-facility-against-climate-change-could-speed-emissions-reduction?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210865/g20-led-finance-facility-against-climate-change-could-speed-emissions-reduction?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Feb 2023 19:00:28 +0000 China’s growth during the past 30 years is without parallel in economic history. Within one generation, the country has transformed itself beyond recognition. It has also invalidated Western economic orthodoxy that asserts that sustained growth requires a free-market economy. China succeeded where the Soviet Union failed. In the process, the Chinese have become much more prosperous. The World Bank estimates that the national poverty rate has now fallen to levels comparable to that in the US, a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3159757/chinas-growth-model-losing-steam-more-market-freedom-best-way-avoid?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3159757/chinas-growth-model-losing-steam-more-market-freedom-best-way-avoid?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Dec 2021 22:45:11 +0000 When it comes to economic growth and development, China has been the envy of the world for decades. Since 1980, the economy has expanded on average by 9.4 per cent per year, four times the speed of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development average. Poverty in China has declined dramatically, but it must not bask in past successes. As in the investment industry, macroeconomic planners need to constantly remind themselves that past performance is no guarantee of future returns –... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3132925/why-china-has-more-gain-fighting-climate-change-other-countries?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3132925/why-china-has-more-gain-fighting-climate-change-other-countries?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 11 May 2021 06:30:17 +0000 This has been a topsy-turvy year for emerging markets. After a coronavirus-induced sudden stop of capital flows in the spring, investors soon returned, encouraged by the dramatic easing by the world’s leading central banks. The worst fears have been avoided. Sovereign defaults remain low by historical standards. But emerging-market policymakers should not deceive themselves: this crisis has only just begun. The worst is yet to come for emerging market sovereign ratings. More countries are... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3104911/asian-emerging-markets-must-brace-coming-wave-ratings-downgrades?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3104911/asian-emerging-markets-must-brace-coming-wave-ratings-downgrades?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 11 Oct 2020 07:30:12 +0000 The futures market has assigned a 100 per cent probability to a Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points on July 31, which would be the first such move in over a decade. In late May, the expected likelihood had been less than a fifth. But in congressional testimony in mid-July, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell was understood to have all but promised a cut in interest rates sooner than later, possibly followed by more. A dove was born. On the face of it, there is little to justify a policy... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3019693/federal-reserve-should-not-be-helping-us-become-closet-currency?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3019693/federal-reserve-should-not-be-helping-us-become-closet-currency?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 23 Jul 2019 19:00:14 +0000 During the introductory statement for his last press conference in January, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s most picked-up sound bite was that “the risks surrounding the euro-area growth outlook have moved to the downside on account of the persistence of uncertainties”. Indeed, what he stated about the euro zone can be repeated for the world at large. The International Monetary Fund sang from the same hymn sheet when updating its World Economic Outlook in January, citing “high... https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/world/article/3002462/through-brexit-and-signs-chinas-slowdown-investors?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/world/article/3002462/through-brexit-and-signs-chinas-slowdown-investors?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Mar 2019 07:00:06 +0000