https://www.scmp.com/rss/501878/feed Sylvia Sheng, vice president, is a global strategist on the multi-asset solutions team, responsible for communicating the group's economic and asset allocation strategy, based in Hong Kong. Prior to joining J.P. Morgan, she worked as a China and Asia economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. She has a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge and an MPhil and BA in economics from the same university. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Emerging market equities’ year-to-date returns have lagged behind those in developed markets. This divergence has occurred despite a rally in global equities, a weaker US dollar and strength in the Chinese economy, which usually provide a fertile backdrop for emerging nations’ equity markets to outperform. Two main factors have driven the lacklustre performance so far this year. First, developed economies have held up much better than many had expected at the start of the year. This is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222579/bolstered-china-emerging-market-equities-have-potential-resilience-amid-us-recession-risks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3222579/bolstered-china-emerging-market-equities-have-potential-resilience-amid-us-recession-risks?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 02 Jun 2023 14:30:18 +0000 The US dollar had a historic bull run in 2022. As the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates rapidly in a bid to combat inflation, the dollar strengthened by around 10 per cent from the start of the year to a high in October 2022 against a broad range of currencies. Other major central banks such as the European Central Bank (ECB) also turned hawkish amid a global surge in inflation, but the Fed remained at the vanguard of the central bank raising cycle. In addition, the US dollar surge last... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210419/us-dollars-bull-run-set-end-china-europe-and-japan-stabilise?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210419/us-dollars-bull-run-set-end-china-europe-and-japan-stabilise?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Feb 2023 14:00:10 +0000 For financial markets, 2022 was a very challenging year that many investors would prefer to forget. Global equities had their worst annual performance since 2008 with the MSCI All Country World Index down by 18 per cent. It was also a bad year for government bonds after a multi-decade bull run. US bonds suffered their steepest losses in nominal terms in over 50 years. The biggest driver of all the market turmoil was a much-higher-than-expected inflation, which triggered the fastest interest rate... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205578/markets-2023-much-hinges-how-quickly-inflation-recedes?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3205578/markets-2023-much-hinges-how-quickly-inflation-recedes?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Jan 2023 14:00:08 +0000 The world’s population has tripled since 1950, from 2.6 billion to 8 billion people. By the end of this century, it may reach 10.4 billion, according to the UN. The sheer size of the population can have profound implications for economic growth. An economy with a rising proportion of young and working-age people (15-64 years old) can deliver higher economic growth and gross domestic product per capita – usually referred to as a demographic dividend – compared to an economy where more older... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199739/demographic-blessing-or-disaster-how-asia-can-reap-its-youth-dividend?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199739/demographic-blessing-or-disaster-how-asia-can-reap-its-youth-dividend?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Nov 2022 14:00:12 +0000 Global equity markets have been nothing if not volatile in recent months. September lived up to its reputation of being a bad month for equity market returns historically. The S&P 500 index slumped 9.3 per cent in September, the worst monthly return since the Covid-19 pandemic hit the United States in March 2020. October kicked off with a significant rally in stocks fuelled by speculation that central banks could soon ease up on their interest rate increases. However, that enthusiasm quickly... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195842/higher-interest-rates-are-still-likely-despite-weak-demand-and-weak?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195842/higher-interest-rates-are-still-likely-despite-weak-demand-and-weak?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 Oct 2022 11:00:13 +0000 The impressive summer equity market rally seems to have fizzled out after sharp corrections in recent weeks. After bottoming out in mid-June, the MSCI World Index – which tracks developed-market equities – was up over 14 per cent before it gave up more than half its gains in the past three weeks. The strong summer performance was mainly driven by a swing in the balance of risks for developed economies. For many, growth appeared more resilient, suggesting less chance of recession. Retail sales... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3191798/policy-tightening-and-recession-risks-mean-summer-stock-rally-end?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3191798/policy-tightening-and-recession-risks-mean-summer-stock-rally-end?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 09 Sep 2022 03:15:19 +0000 In recent weeks, there have been increasing signs that the global economy is losing momentum, while major central banks take decisive action in raising interest rates to contain elevated inflation. Last week, data showed the US economy had shrunk for a second quarter in a row, meeting a common definition of a “technical recession”. Although the US economy was probably not genuinely in recession during the first half of the year, in part due to the tight labour market, the second-quarter figures... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3187726/asias-exports-under-pressure-us-eu-economies-slow-amid-inflation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3187726/asias-exports-under-pressure-us-eu-economies-slow-amid-inflation?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 Aug 2022 03:30:16 +0000 Despite being only halfway through the year, 2022 already seems set to be a remarkable one. Inflation in many developed-market economies is at multi-decade highs, while the S&P 500 had the worst start to the year in half a century. Amid the volatile market environment, the resilience of Chinese equities is notable. China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index has rallied about 10 per cent in the past month. It is one of the few major equity markets to have recorded a positive return in that period,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183634/chinas-economy-set-rebound-pandemic-risks-ease?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3183634/chinas-economy-set-rebound-pandemic-risks-ease?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 02 Jul 2022 01:15:20 +0000 The relationship between inflation, growth and monetary policy has been a key driver of equity market performance recently. As the US Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates in an effort to steer inflation towards its 2 per cent target, investors have started to worry about the negative impact on US growth, which has led to sharp corrections in US equities since April. The seven-week losing streak on the S&P 500 index, the longest run of weekly losses since 2001, ended last week.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3180008/inflation-will-drag-down-growth-us-should-avoid-recession-year?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3180008/inflation-will-drag-down-growth-us-should-avoid-recession-year?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Jun 2022 17:30:26 +0000 Over the first four months of 2022, we have witnessed synchronised global monetary policy tightening, the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a new Omicron wave in China, all of which have posed challenges to emerging market equities. As a result, the MSCI Emerging Markets index fell by more than 12 per cent during this period. Much of the weakness was due to expectations of slower global growth as well as higher interest rates. A stronger US dollar amid an increasingly hawkish Federal... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176604/outlook-emerging-markets-rests-chinas-ability-get-grip-covid-19?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3176604/outlook-emerging-markets-rests-chinas-ability-get-grip-covid-19?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 07 May 2022 01:15:15 +0000 It has been a very volatile month for global financial markets. Concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict weighed on equities and government bond yields as energy prices rose. With signs of positive diplomatic developments in Ukraine, equities have since rebounded substantially with most developed-market equities posting positive returns in March. At the same time, government bond yields rose sharply from their lows in early March as central banks adopted a more hawkish tone in response to high... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3172566/despite-increased-market-volatility-global-growth-slows-theres-no?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3172566/despite-increased-market-volatility-global-growth-slows-theres-no?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 01 Apr 2022 05:30:19 +0000 Monetary policy normalisation has been gaining traction since the start of 2022, mainly led by central banks in developed markets. It started with a hawkish pivot by the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell, chair of the American central bank, delivered a hawkish message at the press conference following the Fed’s January meeting, which was consistent with the hawkish tone of the minutes from the December meeting that were released in January. As a result, the market is currently expecting the Fed to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3168262/why-asian-central-banks-arent-likely-turn-hawkish-fed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3168262/why-asian-central-banks-arent-likely-turn-hawkish-fed?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 25 Feb 2022 14:00:14 +0000 Last year was a challenging one for emerging market equities. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped by almost 5 per cent, while its developed market counterpart rallied by more than 20 per cent, leading to its worst performance since 2013. However, the situation seems to have reversed since the start of this year with emerging market equities faring better than their developed market counterparts. Could we see a return of emerging market equity outperformance in 2022? One factor likely to work... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3164096/china-set-lead-emerging-market-equities-out-doldrums-amid-covid-19?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3164096/china-set-lead-emerging-market-equities-out-doldrums-amid-covid-19?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 21 Jan 2022 03:15:21 +0000 After a weak performance in November, Chinese equities have rebounded strongly in December, pushing the CSI 300 index to its highest level since August. Positive developments on the policy front have given a major boost to investor sentiment recently. There had been concerns that Chinese policymakers were placing less importance on maintaining high growth levels and creating jobs. As well as normalising monetary and fiscal policies, policymakers have initiated regulatory tightening measures on... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3159942/no-u-turn-chinas-regulatory-crackdown-2022-policy-easing-should?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3159942/no-u-turn-chinas-regulatory-crackdown-2022-policy-easing-should?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Dec 2021 06:30:09 +0000 While regulatory tightening this year has raised questions among investors about Chinese policymakers’ strategic priorities, policy actions over the past few months remind us that Beijing remains committed to liberalising and reforming domestic capital markets. China has taken several steps to promote cross-border capital flows, including the launch of the Cross-boundary Wealth Management Connect scheme in the Greater Bay Area and the southbound leg of the Bond Connect programme in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3155702/how-market-reforms-will-boost-appeal-chinese-stocks-and-bonds?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3155702/how-market-reforms-will-boost-appeal-chinese-stocks-and-bonds?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 12 Nov 2021 06:30:26 +0000 The third quarter lived up to its reputation as a more challenging time of the year for Chinese equities, with the CSI 300 Index down 6.8 per cent. Historically, the fourth quarter, in contrast, has mostly been a positive time for Chinese equities. In the past 10 years, the CSI 300 has averaged gains of 7.4 per cent in the fourth quarter and was up in seven of the past 10 years. Will this period bring a better performance for China’s equity market after a rocky third quarter? Concern about... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3151517/amid-power-cuts-and-property-curbs-can-chinese-stocks-bounce-back?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3151517/amid-power-cuts-and-property-curbs-can-chinese-stocks-bounce-back?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 08 Oct 2021 06:30:12 +0000 Investors’ perception of the greatest tail risk from China has shifted notably in recent months. Earlier in the year, overtightening of macro policies in China was viewed as a key risk to the global economic recovery. More recently, these concerns have given way to growth concerns following the disappointing July activity data and weak August PMI figures. Most economists had been expecting China’s growth momentum to slow in the third quarter, in part reflecting the impact of tighter policies... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3147290/why-chinas-slowing-growth-need-not-worry-emerging-asia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3147290/why-chinas-slowing-growth-need-not-worry-emerging-asia?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Sep 2021 06:30:08 +0000 Worries about the spread of the highly transmissible Delta variant of Covid-19 has unnerved markets recently, given its potential to disrupt the global economic recovery. Jitters have focused on Asia, where the variant has sparked a resurgence of virus cases in many parts of the region. Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand are all fighting record-high new case counts, while infections are rising in Japan and Singapore in recent weeks. China also saw a few local outbreaks linked to the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3143020/will-delta-variant-derail-asias-economic-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3143020/will-delta-variant-derail-asias-economic-recovery?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 30 Jul 2021 08:30:12 +0000 As the first economy to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis, China seems to have moved beyond the initial snap-back phase. However, there are signs that the early momentum could be fading.  The recent weakness is mainly concentrated on the domestic demand side. Some major activity indicators in May, including industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales, were all surprisingly disappointing. Growth of both infrastructure and property investment softened last month, probably... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3138620/chinas-economy-seems-have-peaked-year-rapid-slowdown-cards?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3138620/chinas-economy-seems-have-peaked-year-rapid-slowdown-cards?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 25 Jun 2021 19:30:08 +0000 Commodity prices, which had returned to pre-coronavirus levels by the end of last year, have gone on to rise by more than 20 per cent this year, according to the Commodity Research Bureau Index. The increase has been broad-based, affecting energy, industrial metals and agricultural prices. In particular, iron ore and copper prices have surged to all-time highs, passing key levels of US$200 and US$10,000 per tonne respectively. The rapid price surges were driven by booming demand as the global... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3134089/why-chinas-central-bank-unlikely-cave-inflation-pressure?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3134089/why-chinas-central-bank-unlikely-cave-inflation-pressure?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 21 May 2021 06:30:10 +0000 The pace of America’s economic recovery is picking up. Recent US data points to a surge in economic activities in March, following some weather-related weakness in February. Meanwhile, US business survey results are going from strength to strength. In particular, the ISM manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level since 1983, while the ISM services PMI hit an all-time high in March. US labour market conditions also improved notably, with almost a million new jobs created in March, much stronger... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3129657/booming-us-economy-good-news-emerging-asias-exporters-not-so-much?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3129657/booming-us-economy-good-news-emerging-asias-exporters-not-so-much?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 Apr 2021 06:30:12 +0000 The Chinese economy hit a soft patch early this year as the momentum of both consumption and investment growth weakened. Tighter restrictions around the Lunar New Year holiday in response to the Covid-19 resurgence in January dampened consumption, hitting China’s services industry hard. Passenger volume during the peak travel season around the holiday was 76 per cent lower than the same period in 2019. Catering sales in January and February also fell below 2019 levels despite a strong recovery... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3127000/why-china-unlikely-turn-aggressive-monetary-policy-tightening?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3127000/why-china-unlikely-turn-aggressive-monetary-policy-tightening?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Mar 2021 22:45:12 +0000 After leading the world in stock market performance last year, China has started 2021 on a strong note. Its CSI 300 index, which tracks the 300 biggest stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, surpassed its 2015 peak on January 5, reaching its highest level in 13 years. Is this bullish start a sign of another record year for Chinese equities? The macro environment certainly looks supportive of further gains in Chinese equities this year. China’s gross domestic product is on track to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3117621/chinas-stock-markets-are-set-another-bull-run-year?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3117621/chinas-stock-markets-are-set-another-bull-run-year?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 15 Jan 2021 08:45:13 +0000 Contrasting developments on the coronavirus and vaccine fronts have been sending mixed signals to markets in recent weeks. The Covid-19 infection situation has deteriorated, with a resurgence in Europe and the US, while trials of vaccine candidates have produced encouraging results. So far, market sentiment seems to have been dominated by vaccine optimism. Global equities had their largest monthly gain in November since 1988, helped by positive vaccine news on three consecutive Mondays during... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3113383/vaccine-optimism-must-be-tempered-attention-coronavirus-resurgence?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3113383/vaccine-optimism-must-be-tempered-attention-coronavirus-resurgence?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Dec 2020 07:45:13 +0000 Developed-economy stocks lost more than 3 per cent in a choppy and tense October, their second fall in as many months. The drop was led mainly by European equities, which had their worst month since March, while stocks in the United States and Japan also suffered losses in October. China, however, marching to the beat of its own drum as usual, bucked the trend, with the CSI 300 Index gaining 2.4 per cent. The resilience of Chinese equities can be partly explained by the China’s better control of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3108435/chinese-stocks-buoyed-coronavirus-containment-economic-recovery-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3108435/chinese-stocks-buoyed-coronavirus-containment-economic-recovery-and?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Nov 2020 07:45:13 +0000 September lived up to its reputation as being a poor month for stock markets historically. The global stock market rally hit the brakes, led by sell-offs of big US technology stocks. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index entered into correction territory on September 8, after falling 10 per cent from its peak less than a week prior. More recently, the tech chills seem to have spilled into other markets, with the broad-market S&P 500 index’s brief correction on September 24 and shares... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3103821/coronavirus-us-election-and-brexit-will-weigh-heavily-markets?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3103821/coronavirus-us-election-and-brexit-will-weigh-heavily-markets?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 02 Oct 2020 08:30:13 +0000 While the US dollar has languished in weakness over the past few months, the renminbi has also been somewhat sluggish. This underperformance is notable given just how poorly the dollar has done of late. Since the dollar fell from its peak in late March, the renminbi has gained a meagre 2.5 per cent against it, when the Australian dollar has soared 24 per cent, and both the euro and Japanese yen have made respectable gains. Can the yuan catch up with the other major currencies? In the coming... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3099092/why-yuan-could-soon-shake-its-sluggishness-against-us-dollar?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3099092/why-yuan-could-soon-shake-its-sluggishness-against-us-dollar?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Aug 2020 19:30:08 +0000 Chinese A shares are in the spotlight. Following a strong performance in June, the A-share rally has gathered pace this month, surging past its pre-virus high in January. What drove this exuberant burst of market optimism? Many observers have pointed to a front-page editorial by the state-run China Securities Journal about the importance of fostering a healthy bull market in A shares as the country recovers from the pandemic. The market has also got a boost from China’s successful containment of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3093509/why-chinas-share-market-starting-look-safe-haven?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3093509/why-chinas-share-market-starting-look-safe-haven?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 17 Jul 2020 09:00:21 +0000 Stock prices have seesawed recently as market sentiment is being pulled in different directions. On the one hand, worries about a second wave of Covid-19 infections are dampening spirits. June 12 was the worst day for stock markets since the March sell-off, with the S&P 500 index slumping 5.9 per cent and Europe’s Stoxx 600 index tumbling 4.1 per cent. Many pointed to the rise in US infections across states such as Texas and Florida, which had loosened their lockdowns early, as a trigger for the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3089668/expect-more-stock-market-volatility-us-presidential-election-nears?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3089668/expect-more-stock-market-volatility-us-presidential-election-nears?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 19 Jun 2020 13:00:12 +0000 What has been notably absent during the Covid-19 crisis is concern about the stability of the renminbi, unlike during the 2008-09 and 2015-16 periods. Despite significant economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak and heightened market volatility, the renminbi has remained relatively resilient so far. The currency has depreciated by less than 2 per cent in the year to date against the US dollar, performing better than some G10 economy currencies, such as the euro, which has weakened by around... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3084405/amid-coronavirus-driven-volatility-three-reasons-rennimbi-has?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3084405/amid-coronavirus-driven-volatility-three-reasons-rennimbi-has?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 15 May 2020 12:00:18 +0000 As the Covid-19 outbreak sends stock markets around the world plummeting, it is remarkable how well Chinese equities have performed. In the first three months of this year, global equities lost more than 20 per cent of their value, while the CSI 300 Index was only down about 10 per cent and the ChiNext index, a board for China’s hi-tech companies, was actually up around 4 per cent. Despite the global US dollar shortage, the renminbi has also held up exceptionally well. As funding pressures... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3078146/investors-still-favour-chinas-assets-amid-coronavirus-economic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3078146/investors-still-favour-chinas-assets-amid-coronavirus-economic?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 03 Apr 2020 08:00:18 +0000 As the number of new Covid-19 cases in China slows, the fast spread of the coronavirus elsewhere has become a major worry. South Korea has the largest Covid-19 outbreak outside China, while infections in Italy and Iran have jumped in recent weeks, with reports of community spread in Europe and the United States. Concerns of a looming Covid-19 pandemic has triggered a sharp response from investors in the past few weeks. The sell-off in global equity markets deepened, while the yield on the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3065067/asia-must-brace-short-term-volatility-covid-19-hits-china-and-south?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3065067/asia-must-brace-short-term-volatility-covid-19-hits-china-and-south?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Mar 2020 08:00:12 +0000 Following a strong start to the year, Asian equity markets suffered a sharp sell-off in late January on concerns about the novel coronavirus outbreak. The Shanghai Composite and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index declined by around 12 per cent and 8 per cent respectively during the second half of January. However, market sentiment seems to have improved in the past two weeks after the initial shock, with regional equities recovering some of the losses. Despite the better market performance, there is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3050469/coronavirus-will-hit-hard-asias-economies-can-rebound-back-strong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3050469/coronavirus-will-hit-hard-asias-economies-can-rebound-back-strong?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 Feb 2020 13:00:05 +0000 Emerging Asian stocks made a strong start to 2020 before the recent US-Iran tensions, thanks to renewed trade optimism and fresh stimulus from China, which boosted market sentiment. This is a continuation of the solid stock market momentum in 2019, with the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index ending the year up by more than 15 per cent. The performance of emerging Asia economies, on the other hand, was more challenged last year. Although the official numbers have yet to be released, the region’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3045377/2020-will-be-year-emerging-asias-economic-growth-catches-its-equity?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3045377/2020-will-be-year-emerging-asias-economic-growth-catches-its-equity?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 10 Jan 2020 06:00:17 +0000 As investors await concrete signs of progress on US-China trade talks, several loosening signals from China have helped to support market sentiment. China’s 10-year government bond yield rallied by around 10 basis points in the last few weeks following a sharp sell-off that began in September, while Chinese equities were broadly stable. On November 5, for the first time since early 2016, China’s central bank lowered a key quasi-policy rate, the one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3040713/peoples-bank-china-may-be-turning-dovish-investors-should-not-bet?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3040713/peoples-bank-china-may-be-turning-dovish-investors-should-not-bet?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Dec 2019 14:00:09 +0000 US-China trade is in the limelight this week as the two sides meet in Washington for the 13th round of trade negotiations. The mood music improved somewhat from mid-September, as both countries took actions to reduce tensions. However, this week’s talks did not have a promising start. In any case, optimism was dialled back earlier this week as the US added eight Chinese tech companies to its entity list over China’s treatment of its Muslim minorities, and with talk of the US administration... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3032307/trade-wars-damage-done-asia-and-even-interim-us-china-deal-cant?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3032307/trade-wars-damage-done-asia-and-even-interim-us-china-deal-cant?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Oct 2019 08:00:11 +0000 With many investors on their summer holidays, it is natural to think August should be a quiet time for financial markets. But this August has been an exception. One key cause of market volatility has been the intensification of US-China trade tensions, which has rattled investors’ nerves. The trade truce reached by the two sides on the sidelines of the Osaka G20 summit was broken, as US President Donald Trump threatened to slap 10 per cent tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion of Chinese... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3024018/us-china-trade-war-turmoil-and-global-economic-gloom-cast-dark?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3024018/us-china-trade-war-turmoil-and-global-economic-gloom-cast-dark?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Aug 2019 07:01:10 +0000