https://www.scmp.com/rss/502178/feed Christopher Smart is chief global strategist and head of the Barings Investment Institute. Earlier in his career, Christopher managed emerging markets and international strategies at Pioneer Investments and served in senior economic policy positions at the US Treasury and the White House. He holds a BA in history from Yale University and a PhD in international relations from Columbia University. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com “This is crazy. The media coverage is just scaring everyone. Except, now they say it may have been here undetected for weeks!” “It’s not much worse than the flu … But when was the last time I washed my hands?” “Great! Finance ministers and central bank governors are all on the same page … Fifty basis points … a hundred? They must know something we don’t!” This is just a sampling of the ticker tape running through investors’ heads these days. Most of the time, investors stare studiously at their... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3075596/coronavirus-wary-investors-could-learn-franklin-d-roosevelt-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3075596/coronavirus-wary-investors-could-learn-franklin-d-roosevelt-and?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 18 Mar 2020 13:00:14 +0000 Markets still have room to go higher, but clouds are gathering. Last year’s scars remain fresh for many investors as they navigate towards the end of the year. With choppy economic data and wild political headlines, how can 2020 possibly deliver positive returns? The market collapse last December even has worriers wondering whether the current 20 per cent year-to-date gain for the S&P 500 might melt away in the weeks ahead.  In fact, the outlook for next month – and next year – remains good... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3035291/should-stock-market-investors-expect-another-miserable-end-year?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3035291/should-stock-market-investors-expect-another-miserable-end-year?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 30 Oct 2019 14:00:15 +0000 If generals often fight the last war, why should economic policymakers be any different? Amid a fresh prediction that trade friction will shave US$700 billion off the global economy next year, the world’s finance ministers and central bankers are convening in Washington this week for the annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF (wags have called it “Burning Man for bankers”, but it’s hardly a crowd with cultural evolution on its mind). Amid the inevitable talk of tariffs and populism, however,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3033016/its-technology-stupid-those-who-say-trade-driving-inequality-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3033016/its-technology-stupid-those-who-say-trade-driving-inequality-and?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 16 Oct 2019 19:00:08 +0000 As trade friction rises between the United States and China, there are trade experts who bemoan tariffs and sanctions and insist there are no winners. But this is not strictly true, as business executives in Jakarta will tell you, for one. Beyond the companies that benefit from a tariff slapped on a competitor, there are large categories of investments whose business model can work around⁠ tariffs and restrictions. The latest scheduled US-China trade talks suggest a glimmer of hope for agreement... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030706/us-china-trade-war-how-winners-brave-new-world-tariffs-get-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3030706/us-china-trade-war-how-winners-brave-new-world-tariffs-get-ahead?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:00:08 +0000 While most of the financial world stares at the US Treasury curve with a mix of discomfort and confusion, those investors who are taking a view mostly line up around three forecasts for 10-year yields. These predictions may be carefully modelled and explicit, or they could be more like a feeling in their bones. But it helps to know where you line up as you put your own money on the table.  So pick a number. If you choose 3 per cent, you believe the reflationary case that yields will drift higher... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027701/investors-watching-us-treasury-yield-curve-its-ok-be-cowardly-debt?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027701/investors-watching-us-treasury-yield-curve-its-ok-be-cowardly-debt?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 18 Sep 2019 06:00:08 +0000