https://www.scmp.com/rss/502195/feed Gregory Mitrovich is the author of "Undermining the Kremlin: America's Strategy to Subvert the Soviet Bloc, 1947-1956", which was awarded the Stuart L. Bernath Book Prize by the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations. He was co-principal investigator for Columbia University’s "Culture in Power Transitions: Sino-American Confrontation in the 21st Century", funded by the Department of Defence Minerva Research Initiative. Mitrovich has held research fellowships at the Olin Institute... en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Stunning the world on the eve of the Beijing Olympic Games in February this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a “friendship without limits” that would counterbalance the global dominance of the United States and challenge Western democratic liberalism. Russia’s disastrous war in Ukraine, launched only weeks later, has ruined that vision. Moscow’s pretensions to great-power status crumbled once the Russian army failed to subdue Ukraine, suffering... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204669/china-needs-rethink-its-relationship-russia-2023?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204669/china-needs-rethink-its-relationship-russia-2023?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 29 Dec 2022 00:15:10 +0000 Joseph Nye of Harvard University famously argued that nuclear weapons had provided leaders in Washington and Moscow with a “crystal ball” foreshadowing incalculable destruction should war break out. Deterrence held for over 40 years because both sides understood that no short-term, strategic gains were worth the risk of a nuclear war. It should be equally evident today that a Sino-American conflict in the 21st century would be catastrophic for the world. Yet, officials and analysts on both sides... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3190542/avoid-disastrous-war-over-taiwan-us-and-china-must-halt-great-power?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3190542/avoid-disastrous-war-over-taiwan-us-and-china-must-halt-great-power?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 30 Aug 2022 01:15:15 +0000 In 1904, France watched helplessly as its most important strategic ally, Russia, suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Japan, crippling the alliance they had created in 1894 to balance Germany’s growing dominance in Europe. With Russia’s standing as a great power in ruins, France was left isolated, enabling Berlin to act with increasing impunity. The march to World War I had commenced. Today, it is China that is witnessing years of strategic planning go up in smoke. Russia’s military... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3173100/ukraines-post-war-economic-recovery-could-provide-setting-us-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3173100/ukraines-post-war-economic-recovery-could-provide-setting-us-china?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Apr 2022 17:30:13 +0000 Not surprisingly, some in China have reacted with glee to the Taliban victory in Afghanistan, with the Global Times describing the United States as a “paper tiger” witnessing a “complete failure” in the country known as the “graveyard of empires”. The paper also warned: “When its interests require it to abandon allies, Washington will not hesitate to find every excuse to do so.” Such attacks appear to confirm what many have long suspected: that Beijing is convinced the US is in the throes of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3146878/america-decline-china-still-has-way-go-it-can-seriously-challenge?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3146878/america-decline-china-still-has-way-go-it-can-seriously-challenge?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 30 Aug 2021 19:30:08 +0000 The continued deterioration in Sino-US relations has sparked an intensifying debate about what objectives the United States should pursue towards China. On one side are those who argue that the only way to prevent an endless conflict is for the US to favour regime change. Others counter that such a strategy would greatly exacerbate tensions between the two nations while also weakening alliances critical to American national security. Instead, they argue, the US should centre its efforts over the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3142273/us-china-relations-could-19th-century-accord-between-britain-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3142273/us-china-relations-could-19th-century-accord-between-britain-and?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 25 Jul 2021 17:30:17 +0000 One of the most perplexing aspects of the intensifying US-China rivalry is the absence of key flashpoints or strategic drivers that normally precipitate great-power crises. Concerns over Germany’s future and the escalating nuclear arms race engendered the Cold War and raised the risk of a hot war that would have destroyed the world. For nearly 40 years, US and Soviet Union military forces would stand eyeball to eyeball in the disputed city of Berlin, armies would face each other along the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3129658/counter-rising-china-us-must-show-its-powers-are-not-decline?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3129658/counter-rising-china-us-must-show-its-powers-are-not-decline?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 Apr 2021 17:30:19 +0000 What could have been a triumphant 2020 for President Xi Jinping and China might well be remembered as the year China blew it for its increasingly aggressive diplomacy and efforts to exploit a global health crisis it was uniquely placed to solve. Instead of China playing the role of an altruistic leader providing badly needed assistance to countries devastated by the pandemic, Xi unleashed China’s “wolf warrior” diplomacy on the world. Beijing reportedly made delivery of aid contingent on public... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3111607/its-wolf-warrior-bullying-tactics-china-failed-learn-us-path-global?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3111607/its-wolf-warrior-bullying-tactics-china-failed-learn-us-path-global?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Nov 2020 17:00:21 +0000 Tensions within East Asia have risen to dangerous levels in recent months, starting with Hong Kong’s national security law ending its autonomous status within China, and including a deadly confrontation between Chinese and Indian troops in the Himalayan mountains, with both sides signalling willingness to escalate the crisis, even if it leads to war. However, it is China’s escalating threats towards Taiwan that have many fearing a war with the United States. China’s state media have issued dire... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3103551/us-must-show-china-its-strategic-ambiguity-taiwan-backed-serious?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3103551/us-must-show-china-its-strategic-ambiguity-taiwan-backed-serious?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 30 Sep 2020 17:00:15 +0000 The deterioration of US-China relations has many fearful that conflict is inevitable as the two nations are increasingly entangled in a new cold war. However, these cold-war comparisons do more harm than good as they fail to consider critical differences between the two eras of competition. The first difference is that the US-China rivalry lacks an ideological conflict that even remotely resembles the ferocity of US-Soviet relations from the 1940s to 1960s. Second, US-China competition lacks a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3096641/us-china-relations-invoking-cold-war-ignores-covid-19-pandemic-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3096641/us-china-relations-invoking-cold-war-ignores-covid-19-pandemic-and?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 10 Aug 2020 19:30:15 +0000 Is war between China and the United States inevitable? Tensions have reached dangerous levels, and in the US, a bipartisan consensus on China has emerged, supporting President Donald Trump’s confrontational policies and calling for ever more aggressive strategies to limit China’s growing influence. While history suggests that war is likely, there is one example in which conflict was avoided: America’s rise to power under Pax Britannica. During the 19th century, the US showed how an emerging... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027950/how-china-and-us-can-avoid-going-war-tensions-rise-over-xi-jinpings?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3027950/how-china-and-us-can-avoid-going-war-tensions-rise-over-xi-jinpings?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 20 Sep 2019 17:00:12 +0000