https://www.scmp.com/rss/505675/feed Chaoping Zhu is a Shanghai-based global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management. Prior to joining J.P. Morgan in 2017, Chaoping served as China economist at UOB Kay Hian. He also served as a research analyst at the Brookings Institution and Tudor Investment Corporation. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) annual meeting started on March 5 with Premier Li Keqiang’s government work report. Each year, the report details the Chinese government’s messages about its economic growth target and policy measures to be adopted in the coming years, drawing much attention from investors. This year, the report revealed a pro-growth stance with clear signals that the government’s priority has shifted from regulatory tightening and deleveraging to economic growth. First,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3169939/npc-report-signals-chinas-return-pro-growth-expansionary-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3169939/npc-report-signals-chinas-return-pro-growth-expansionary-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 11 Mar 2022 05:30:27 +0000 The annual session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) will be held in Beijing from March 5. Amid China’s softening economic growth and falling stock prices, the conference is likely to draw a lot of attention from the market as investors expect to see more accommodative policy measures to stabilise growth. Since the third quarter of 2021, there have been continuous policy efforts to revive China’s economic engine, particularly in domestic investment. At the NPC, a flexible growth target and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3167391/how-npc-policymakers-can-restore-confidence-chinas-economy-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3167391/how-npc-policymakers-can-restore-confidence-chinas-economy-and?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Feb 2022 06:31:09 +0000 Asean stock markets have suffered this year as a result of slow vaccine roll-outs and sluggish economic recovery, underperforming their global peers. From the start of the year to December 29, the MSCI Asean index declined by 3.3 per cent, in contrast with the 17 per cent return from the MSCI ACWI, the index tracking stock markets around the world. With a long-anticipated move towards non-US markets as the global economic recovery widens, can we finally look to the Association of Southeast Asian... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3161644/asean-markets-green-energy-and-fintech-can-provide-impetus-strong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3161644/asean-markets-green-energy-and-fintech-can-provide-impetus-strong?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Dec 2021 05:30:20 +0000 Up to September, the Chinese property sector had come under increasing pressure from market controls ranging from credit tightening to purchase restrictions. Home sales and land acquisition slid across the country, leading to liquidity risks in the real estate sector. As a result, Chinese developers’ stocks delivered the worst performance among all sectors in the A-share market, with market capitalisation shrinking by 18.4 per cent, or 2.8 trillion yuan (US$440 billion), in the first 10 months... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3157430/are-chinese-property-developer-stocks-good-buy-right-now?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3157430/are-chinese-property-developer-stocks-good-buy-right-now?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Nov 2021 06:30:18 +0000 The past quarter was the weakest for the Chinese economy since the country started recovering from the Covid-19 shock. Real GDP increased by just 0.2 per cent on a quarterly basis during the third quarter, compared with a growth rate of 1.2 per cent in the second quarter. However, the recent slowdown might not stop China from achieving its 6 per cent growth goal for 2021 – in the first half of the year, the economy saw strong year-on-year GDP growth of 12.7 per cent. This will allow policymakers... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3153119/why-weaker-growth-and-market-fears-might-delay-wont-derail-chinas?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3153119/why-weaker-growth-and-market-fears-might-delay-wont-derail-chinas?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 Oct 2021 06:30:13 +0000 The recent sharp correction in Chinese equities, on the back of tighter internet regulations and private education reforms, has left investors worried about China’s economic and market prospects. This recent market volatility signals inevitable pains in a drastic policy transition necessary to achieve China’s long-term objectives. To sustain economic growth, policymakers need to cultivate competitiveness in strategically important sectors such as the technology and new energy sectors. While... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3143842/tech-and-tuition-crackdowns-how-understand-chinas-growing-pains-it?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3143842/tech-and-tuition-crackdowns-how-understand-chinas-growing-pains-it?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 06 Aug 2021 08:30:11 +0000 To help rein in rising education costs and reverse the country’s demographic decline, China recently launched a raft of tighter regulations aimed at private education companies that offer tutoring services, causing stock prices in this sector to tumble. Educational anxieties are meanwhile creeping into the property market as real estate bubbles in desirable school districts might be coming into the crosshairs for regulators looking to curb excesses. In China’s highly competitive education arena,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3140434/why-chinas-education-reform-may-be-no-match-hypercompetitive-drive?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3140434/why-chinas-education-reform-may-be-no-match-hypercompetitive-drive?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 09 Jul 2021 14:00:14 +0000 The recent surge in property prices and debt levels in China, and policymakers’ response in tightening regulations, has sparked much speculation about the real estate market and its future. In the second half of last year, average property prices in China’s top-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou rose 10 per cent year on year. For premium properties, the price momentum is even stronger. Already, the four cities are among the most expensive globally, and their housing... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3135799/what-expect-chinas-residential-property-market-seeks-soft-landing?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3135799/what-expect-chinas-residential-property-market-seeks-soft-landing?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 04 Jun 2021 06:30:06 +0000 The May Day holiday marked the first long national holiday since China almost fully relaxed its Covid-19 lockdown measures. The consumption data for those five days paints a telling picture of the recovery of domestic demand. In order to stimulate consumption, the authorities extended the holiday to five days, making long-distance trips easier for consumers. This, coupled with pent-up demand left over from the pandemic, drove a strong consumption rebound in various sectors, as reflected by... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3133374/chinas-consumers-will-power-its-covid-19-recovery-their-blockbuster?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3133374/chinas-consumers-will-power-its-covid-19-recovery-their-blockbuster?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 14 May 2021 14:00:06 +0000 In the government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang to the National People’s Congress earlier this month, the 2021 growth target was set at above 6 per cent year on year. This target seems conservative and significantly below the consensus forecasts around 8.7 per cent by local economists. It reflects the leadership’s commitment to achieve sustainable and healthy economic growth in the long run while shifting from quantity-driven growth to a quality-driven growth model in the coming... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3125137/chinas-two-sessions-ambitious-practical-goals-five-year-plan-target?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3125137/chinas-two-sessions-ambitious-practical-goals-five-year-plan-target?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 12 Mar 2021 08:30:06 +0000 New-energy vehicle (NEV) companies have become a red-hot investment theme in recent months. Since the end of September, the benchmark NEV Power Battery index in the A-share market has surged almost 60 per cent. In the overseas markets, Chinese and global electric vehicle stocks have also soared. But is the rally sustainable? Given how quickly NEV companies’ stock prices have rocketed, a short-term correction is likely. But, in the long term, the sector is supported by structural trends,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3120436/chinas-ev-market-booming-so-how-do-you-pick-next-tesla-stock-winner?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3120436/chinas-ev-market-booming-so-how-do-you-pick-next-tesla-stock-winner?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 Feb 2021 17:30:07 +0000 After a long wait, US President Donald Trump finally signed the second pandemic relief and government funding bill into law on December 27. The focus of this massive US$2.3 trillion bill is a US$900 billion stimulus package, which includes a US$600 direct payment to each eligible adult under certain income levels and children under certain ages. It will also bring various unemployment benefits to workers and financial support to enterprises. In addition, language has been added to the bill... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3115921/what-us-latest-stimulus-bill-means-investors-new-year?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3115921/what-us-latest-stimulus-bill-means-investors-new-year?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 01 Jan 2021 19:30:09 +0000 As the dust settles on the US election, investors’ attention is returning to market fundamentals. Economic growth and corporate earnings will take the place of politics as market drivers. The Covid-19 economic downturn has been unlike previous recessions caused by factors such as debt bubbles, and has continued to weigh on economic activities and corporate earnings in most sectors. Medical solutions, particularly breakthroughs in vaccine development, have become the determinant of stock market... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3110629/coronavirus-vaccine-hope-signals-shift-tech-stocks-towards-market?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3110629/coronavirus-vaccine-hope-signals-shift-tech-stocks-towards-market?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 20 Nov 2020 19:30:12 +0000 The key pillars of China’s 14th five-year plan were unveiled this week. One of the most eye-catching components is technological development and self-reliance, which has been elevated to a national strategic pillar. Although the development of cutting-edge technologies was highlighted in previous five-year plans, new tech priorities in the latest plan have attracted renewed attention against the backdrop of escalating China-US tensions. Facing the risk of widening restrictions, it is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3107737/how-china-can-be-more-self-sufficient-tech-development?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3107737/how-china-can-be-more-self-sufficient-tech-development?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 31 Oct 2020 00:45:15 +0000 Profound adjustments will be called for in China’s forthcoming five-year economic plan as the country seeks to promote sustainable, high-quality development. The plan, covering 2021 to 2025, will be discussed and approved at the Fifth Plenum of the 19th Communist Party Central Committee in October. China has produced economic development plans every five years since 1953. The planning style has evolved during China’s transition from a planned economy to a market economy. In the early days, the... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3101964/why-economic-rebalancing-will-be-heart-chinas-next-five-year-plan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3101964/why-economic-rebalancing-will-be-heart-chinas-next-five-year-plan?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 18 Sep 2020 13:45:13 +0000 The past few days have been packed with market-moving news. The latest US GDP data lent some clues about the health of the economy, the Federal Reserve held a closely watched meeting and there was fierce debate in Washington over a widely anticipated US virus stimulus package. In addition, the week was by far the most intensive period of earnings updates from listed companies.  Thursday’s GDP report confirmed that the United States is in the deepest recession since World War II. There was an... https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3095445/coronavirus-recovery-us-economys-plunge-and-waning-sentiment-put-investors?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3095445/coronavirus-recovery-us-economys-plunge-and-waning-sentiment-put-investors?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Jul 2020 13:15:14 +0000 In the middle of juggling the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, China faces rising geopolitical tensions that are putting investors on edge and clouding the outlook for markets. To counter these twin threats, policymakers are keen to reassure global investors that China remains a good venue for capital. They are picking up the pace of reforms to open up the capital market, driving stock market changes that will usher in a more technology-driven economic model. Having taken their cue... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3090571/how-stock-market-reforms-will-drive-china-tech-investment-and?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3090571/how-stock-market-reforms-will-drive-china-tech-investment-and?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 Jun 2020 06:00:06 +0000 The annual session of the National People’s Congress is getting the market’s full attention these days since Beijing is expected to announce a strong stimulus package to stabilise the Chinese economy amid the Covid-19 shock. However, to my mind, the market might be overly focusing on short-term issues, while to some extent ignoring some policies over a longer time horizon. To take a step back, the Chinese authorities have in the past few months published a series of documents pledging to push... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3085593/coronavirus-or-not-china-must-focus-big-picture-economic-reforms?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3085593/coronavirus-or-not-china-must-focus-big-picture-economic-reforms?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 22 May 2020 05:59:44 +0000 Amid the global Covid-19 outbreak, China has reported a year-on-year fall in economic output for the first time since 1992, when the National Bureau of Statistics started releasing GDP growth numbers on a quarterly basis. Real gross domestic product growth in the first quarter declined 6.8 per cent, year on year, worse than market expectations. The industrial sector was hardest hit by the production suspensions, with a year-on-year decline of 9.6 per cent in value added. Meanwhile, the service... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3081283/china-focused-softening-economic-blow-coronavirus-not-making-quick?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3081283/china-focused-softening-economic-blow-coronavirus-not-making-quick?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 24 Apr 2020 11:30:05 +0000