https://www.scmp.com/rss/507549/feed Weijian Shan is the executive chairman of PAG, a leading Asia-focused private equity firm. Prior to PAG, he was a partner of the private equity firm TPG, and co-managing partner of TPG Asia (formerly known as Newbridge Capital). Previously, Shan was a managing director of JP Morgan, and a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of Money Machine: A Trailblazing American Venture in China (2023), Money Games: The Inside Story of How American Dealmakers... en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Weijian Shan Weijian Shan In the shadow of escalating tensions between the United States and China, Graham Allison’s concept of the Thucydides Trap has become a staple of geopolitical discourse. Coined by the Harvard scholar, the term evokes the ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ observation that “it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”. Allison’s study of 16 historical cases, where a rising power challenged a ruling one, found war in 12 instances. He warns that... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3329612/avert-war-west-must-shatter-mirror-which-it-views-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3329612/avert-war-west-must-shatter-mirror-which-it-views-china?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 20 Oct 2025 21:30:13 +0000 China has a formidable reputation for meeting its economic growth targets. In each of the past two years, despite challenges, the 5 per cent GDP target has been achieved. This year’s has also been set at around 5 per cent. But where will the growth come from? China’s economy certainly has the potential to grow faster. The economic fundamentals have improved: the property market looks to be either near its bottom or already bottoming out. Households savings have risen so much that personal bank... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3301332/how-will-china-achieve-its-5-growth-target?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3301332/how-will-china-achieve-its-5-growth-target?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 11 Mar 2025 01:30:09 +0000 President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to intensify the US trade war with China, calling for additional tariffs on Chinese imports. This is despite the current tariff regime, which began in 2018, failing to achieve its stated purpose of reducing America’s trade deficit and stifling China’s economic growth. In fact, it has hurt American consumers who have borne most, if not all, of the pain by paying higher prices for Chinese goods. It has merely shifted the global trade pattern. Direct imports... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3288819/what-china-can-do-make-best-escalating-us-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3288819/what-china-can-do-make-best-escalating-us-trade-war?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 02 Dec 2024 12:30:10 +0000 Weijian Shan Weijian Shan Hong Kong has long prided itself as “the Pearl of the Orient” and the most famous economic success story in southern China. Yet in reality, Hong Kong has lagged far behind its mainland neighbour Shenzhen in growth for the past three decades. It should not have been this way – and there is a way for Hong Kong to catch up. The Hong Kong government aims to develop the city into a “headquarters economy” by attracting businesses from around the world to come. A way to achieve this would be for... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3278595/how-yuan-can-help-hong-kong-outcompete-shenzhen?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3278595/how-yuan-can-help-hong-kong-outcompete-shenzhen?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 17 Sep 2024 08:30:09 +0000 The US State Department recently released its 2024 Hong Kong Policy Act Report, which includes a notable statistic: the number of Americans living in Hong Kong as of the end of 2023 had reached 84,000, the highest since the pandemic and 30 per cent more than in 2014, when such data was first released. Americans aren’t the only ones returning to Hong Kong in large numbers. Immigration statistics registered a net inflow in both 2022 and 2023, an increase of 152,300 people in total, compared to a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3260491/dont-discount-millions-hongkongers-who-voted-their-feet-staying?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/hong-kong-opinion/article/3260491/dont-discount-millions-hongkongers-who-voted-their-feet-staying?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 28 Apr 2024 01:15:13 +0000 A Chinese former official made headlines last September by saying that China had so many vacant homes that even its 1.4 billion population cannot hope to fill them all. Estimates suggested there were enough vacant properties to house as many as 3 billion people. If true, China’s housing market is doomed. But, to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of the market’s demise are an exaggeration. According to the national statistics bureau, China has built 14.4 billion square metres (155 billion square... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3257492/chinas-property-market-risk-overcorrection-not-oversupply?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3257492/chinas-property-market-risk-overcorrection-not-oversupply?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 02 Apr 2024 21:30:18 +0000 The growth – or lack thereof – of the Chinese economy matters, not only to China but also to the rest of the world. China is now the main trading partner of more than 140 nations and regions. Its share of the world economy is about 18.5 per cent, and it is expected to contribute about 35 per cent of global growth this year. While China is expected to meet its 5 per cent growth target for 2023, economic, geopolitical and demographic challenges have raised questions over whether growth can be... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3242277/why-chinas-economy-will-continue-grow?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3242277/why-chinas-economy-will-continue-grow?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 Nov 2023 08:30:11 +0000 Recent advances in artificial intelligence raise the question of whether it will eventually replace and surpass human intelligence. A decade ago physicist Stephen Hawking said he feared thinking machines would evolve faster than humans, bound as we are by our biological limits, and eventually take on a life of their own, potentially spelling the end of the human race. Can machines become intelligent and powerful enough to turn against their makers, as they did the film The Matrix? The answer is... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3215058/edge-humans-have-over-ai-use-your-imagination?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3215058/edge-humans-have-over-ai-use-your-imagination?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Mar 2023 17:00:09 +0000 Hong Kong is losing out to other Asian cities, particularly Singapore, as a financial hub and a tourist destination, all because of its hotel quarantine policy. Services, including financial services and everything related to tourism such as airlines, hotels, restaurants, shops and entertainment, represent more than 90 per cent of Hong Kong’s economy. All are at risk. For the last three years of 2019-2021, Hong Kong’s net outflow of people numbered 59,100. But in the first three months of this... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3184730/hong-kong-must-ditch-its-damaging-covid-19-hotel-quarantine-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3184730/hong-kong-must-ditch-its-damaging-covid-19-hotel-quarantine-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 12 Jul 2022 00:45:15 +0000 I am lucky enough to count a number of former American ambassadors to China as friends, some of whom I have known for decades. Several years back, one gave me an exquisite Christmas gift – a pocket-sized World Atlas with a black leather cover, gilded with the emblem of the United States in the centre and the ambassador’s name and title in beautiful italic calligraphy at the bottom (Exhibit 1). Inside the cover is the ambassador’s handwriting: “To my old and dear friend Weijian and family, with... https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3162508/beijing-and-taipei-are-united-their-south-china-sea-claims?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3162508/beijing-and-taipei-are-united-their-south-china-sea-claims?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 09 Jan 2022 03:00:33 +0000 On March 22, the United States and the European Union imposed sanctions on China over alleged human rights violations against the Uygurs, the majority ethnic group in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. It was the latest in a series of escalating moves against Beijing that began on January 19 when then US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, on his last day in office, declared that China was committing “ongoing” genocide against the Uygurs.  Pompeo offered no evidence. It was reported in Foreign Policy... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3129325/xinjiang-what-west-doesnt-tell-you-about-chinas-war-terror?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3129325/xinjiang-what-west-doesnt-tell-you-about-chinas-war-terror?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 13 Apr 2021 17:30:09 +0000 When the Hong Kong national security law was first adopted on June 30, there was much discussion about its impact. Some thought it would bring back social stability; others predicted a mass exodus of foreign businesses and capital and the demise of freedom. A senior Japanese executive told me some headlines in Japan declared that “Hong Kong is dead”. Neither speculation nor debate could change the reality on the ground. October 8 marked the 100th day of the passage of the law. With that... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3106115/what-national-security-law-has-done-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3106115/what-national-security-law-has-done-hong-kong?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 19 Oct 2020 17:00:08 +0000