https://www.scmp.com/rss/508701/feed Terry Su is president of Lulu Derivation Data Ltd, a Hong Kong-based online publishing house and think tank specialising in geopolitics. Prior to the establishment of Lulu Derivation with his partners in 2019, Mr Su spent more than two decades as an investment banker and senior business executive. From 2003 to 2006, Mr Su was an external member of the Departmental Advisory Committee of the Department of Chinese, Translation and Linguistics at City University of Hong Kong. He has bachelor's... en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Terry Su Terry Su I underestimated Japan’s determination to ruffle China’s feathers. In a November 2023 column, I argued that the apparently cordial meeting between President Xi Jinping and then US president Joe Biden in the US unsettled Japan, which wanted to attain its goal of becoming a “normal country” again. In a column last December, I said Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s hardened position against China – exemplified by her November 7 speech saying China’s forceful takeover of Taiwan could pose an... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3344382/japans-rightward-shift-puts-it-collision-course-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3344382/japans-rightward-shift-puts-it-collision-course-china?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 01 Mar 2026 12:30:09 +0000 Terry Su Terry Su We had barely entered the new year when Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured in a brazen raid on the orders of US President Donald Trump. In the early hours of January 3, the couple were taken from their residence in Caracas, Venezuela, and flown to the US in a military operation impeccably executed in the name of countering narcoterrorism. Beijing, for one, was “deeply shocked” by Washington’s “hegemonic behaviour” and strongly condemned it. At a UN... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339058/how-trumps-raid-caracas-deepens-us-china-strategic-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3339058/how-trumps-raid-caracas-deepens-us-china-strategic-tensions?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 11 Jan 2026 12:30:10 +0000 Terry Su Terry Su Retrenchment appears to be the buzzword following the Trump administration’s release of its new National Security Strategy (NSS). Under the heading “Balance of Power”, the report states that “the US rejects the ill-fated concept of global domination for itself”. And under “burden-sharing and burden-shifting”, it says that “the days of the US propping up the entire world order like Atlas are over”. The document asserts a “‘Trump corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine” and vows to “restore American... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3336030/us-global-retreat-shows-japans-folly-defying-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3336030/us-global-retreat-shows-japans-folly-defying-china?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 15 Dec 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Terry Su Terry Su While the world’s attention is drawn to US President Donald Trump’s tug of war with China over trade tariffs and technological embargoes, a new development in the Ukraine war is catching the eye of geopolitical observers. Pokrovsk, a city in Donetsk Oblast, has emerged as the most critical flashpoint in Russia’s war on Ukraine. At the intersection of major supply highways and a key railway junction, it serves as a vital logistics hub for Ukrainian forces defending central and western Donetsk.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3332846/russia-advances-and-trump-retreats-chinas-ascendancy-clear?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3332846/russia-advances-and-trump-retreats-chinas-ascendancy-clear?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 18 Nov 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Terry Su Terry Su Many people in the United States and elsewhere are still in shock over the killing of Charlie Kirk. The young conservative influencer, renowned for his provocative debating style and his close ties with US President Donald Trump and his family, was shot last Wednesday on the campus of Utah Valley University during a public discussion on a wide range of issues. One of the topics was gun control, something Kirk vehemently opposed in the name of upholding the Second Amendment. Tyler Robinson, the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325563/why-charlie-kirks-killing-could-herald-calmer-us-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325563/why-charlie-kirks-killing-could-herald-calmer-us-china-relations?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 16 Sep 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Terry Su Terry Su It seems clear that US President Donald Trump achieved little more than a photo opportunity from the bilateral summit in Anchorage, Alaska, with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his subsequent meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other European leaders. Now, a ceasefire seems more out of reach than ever. For a negotiated peace agreement, Putin has insisted on his demands that Ukraine give up ambitions to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, as well as land occupied... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3323077/china-may-not-be-waging-war-ukraine-it-still-stands-win?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3323077/china-may-not-be-waging-war-ukraine-it-still-stands-win?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 26 Aug 2025 21:30:07 +0000 Terry Su Terry Su Amid a US-China trade truce, negotiators in London reached a “framework” agreement to activate the Geneva deal, raising hopes for an immediate alleviation of the trade conflict, including potentially a US commitment to revoke some of its tech embargoes in return for China’s relaxation of rare earth export restrictions. The full details of the London agreement are expected to be available after both US President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping have approved it. The two-day London... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3313896/trump-cannot-hope-solve-china-problem-he-has-misdiagnosed?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3313896/trump-cannot-hope-solve-china-problem-he-has-misdiagnosed?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 12 Jun 2025 21:30:07 +0000 Terry Su Terry Su After intense two-day negotiations with China in Geneva recently, the United States agreed to postpone its “reciprocal tariff” on China for 90 days, with both sides cutting additional tariffs mostly to 10 per cent. In yet another example of US President Donald Trump taking people by surprise, he declared the climbdown a “historic trade win”. Trump and his supporters claimed a victory by pointing to the pre-April-2 fentanyl-based tariff of 20 per cent on China that remains, by Beijing agreeing to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3310944/trump-forced-bargain-china-us-mourns-loss-supremacy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3310944/trump-forced-bargain-china-us-mourns-loss-supremacy?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 May 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Let’s face it, Europe as a geopolitical concept is as shaky as an edifice on sand after America, under President Donald Trump, “abandoned Ukraine” and even became Europe’s “enemy”, to quote the Financial Times. With the Ukraine war marching into its fourth year, Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a cordial phone call about ending the war. US and Russian officials held meetings in Saudi Arabia and Turkey – disregarding Europe and Ukraine in the process – to reestablish relations... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3300889/ditched-us-europe-must-consider-common-home-russia?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3300889/ditched-us-europe-must-consider-common-home-russia?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 05 Mar 2025 12:30:09 +0000 US president-elect Donald Trump called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” during his campaign for re-election. Judging by his now well-known character and first-term record, he is certain to walk his talk after his inauguration on January 20 and impose tariffs across the board on all goods imported into the United States. Amid all the discussion of a potential new “tariff war”, though, we need to make clear the tension inherent in the term as it is crucial to understanding the... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3292767/why-trumps-tariff-war-china-more-dangerous-he-thinks?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3292767/why-trumps-tariff-war-china-more-dangerous-he-thinks?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 31 Dec 2024 12:30:08 +0000 Terry Su Terry Su As the key pieces fall into place for positions in US president-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet, tea-leaf readings abound, especially with regard to the incoming administration’s hawkishness towards China. To say that Beijing can cope with Trump’s return with consummate ease is surely an exaggeration. However, there is a strong case to be made that China is in a better strategic position than four years ago, when current US President Joe Biden took over from the first Trump administration and went... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3288139/why-stronger-china-has-little-fear-second-trump-administration?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3288139/why-stronger-china-has-little-fear-second-trump-administration?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Nov 2024 21:30:08 +0000 Terry Su Terry Su As the key pieces fall into place for positions in US president-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet, tea-leaf readings abound, especially with regard to the incoming administration’s hawkishness towards China. To say that Beijing can cope with Trump’s return with consummate ease is surely an exaggeration. However, there is a strong case to be made that China is in a better strategic position than four years ago, when current US President Joe Biden took over from the first Trump administration and went... https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3288183/why-stronger-china-has-no-need-fear-second-trump-administration?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/plus/article/3288183/why-stronger-china-has-no-need-fear-second-trump-administration?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 27 Nov 2024 01:22:31 +0000 In a remarkable political comeback, Donald Trump was re-elected president of the United States with help from, among others, tech tycoon Elon Musk. The victory of Trump, a convicted felon, symbolises America’s repudiation of its exceptionalism as a “shining city upon a hill” distinct from the Old World – the dashing of the nation’s long-held moral conceit amid voters’ willingness to succumb to self-interest, even though Trump was described as a “fascist” during his campaign by his own former... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3285575/trump-20-will-usher-post-american-world-order?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3285575/trump-20-will-usher-post-american-world-order?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 07 Nov 2024 21:30:08 +0000 The latest issue of American Affairs goes for sensationalism with an article headlined, “China is winning. Now what?”. The piece, by Nathan Simington of the US Federal Communications Commission, tells a detailed story of how the United States has been caught off guard by the rise of China. Taking car manufacturing as a salient example, Simington notes that the latest Beijing Auto Show “raised eyebrows with unprecedented battery capabilities, shockingly low price points, and stunningly... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278255/whoever-wins-us-election-america-isnt-stopping-chinas-rise?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3278255/whoever-wins-us-election-america-isnt-stopping-chinas-rise?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 15 Sep 2024 12:30:08 +0000 When the curtain fell on the Paris Summer Olympics last weekend, people from all over the world took note that the United States and China tied for first place with 40 gold medals each, leading the rest of the competing countries by quite a margin. Graham Allison, a Harvard professor who is best known for his 2017 book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, observed in The National Interest late last week, “China’s rise from essentially nowhere to become the leading... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3274607/can-chinas-restraint-inspire-more-peaceful-rivalry-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3274607/can-chinas-restraint-inspire-more-peaceful-rivalry-us?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 Aug 2024 21:30:15 +0000 I have long maintained that Europe is moving to distance itself from the United States on the world stage, in spite of all the signs of transatlantic solidarity. However, I had not expected it to evolve as quickly as we have seen in the past few weeks. First came the formal diplomatic recognition of a Palestinian state by Ireland, Norway and Spain last month. These announcements are significant, given the historical burden of Europe’s collective sense of guilt over what happened to the Jewish... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3265078/europe-seeking-accelerate-its-move-away-us-influence?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3265078/europe-seeking-accelerate-its-move-away-us-influence?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 03 Jun 2024 12:30:14 +0000 Fresh from his whistle-stop tour of Europe, Chinese President Xi Jinping is hosting Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, the latter’s first trip abroad since his re-election in March. Considering that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken went to Beijing last month to warn of the potentially serious consequences of China’s continued closeness with Russia amid the war in Ukraine, the Xi-Putin meeting illustrates Washington’s dilemma that makes the need for a coherent China strategy... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3262374/lack-coherent-china-policy-backing-us-corner?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3262374/lack-coherent-china-policy-backing-us-corner?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 14 May 2024 12:30:16 +0000 US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently visited China, her second trip in less than a year, amid US complaints about China’s overcapacity. This latest narrative is neither unusual nor surprising given the gathered pace of Washington’s bipartisan China bashing, which began under the previous Trump administration. Last month, Admiral John Aquilino, the outgoing commander of US forces in the Indo-Pacific, told the House Armed Services Committee that China was part of a group of countries that... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3258380/amid-titanic-us-china-clash-europe-must-make-its-own-plans-quickly?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3258380/amid-titanic-us-china-clash-europe-must-make-its-own-plans-quickly?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 11 Apr 2024 21:30:13 +0000 The European Union has struggled to be seen as an independent player amid big power rivalry, not least because of its partnership with the US-dominated Nato. French President Emmanuel Macron, a champion for strategic autonomy, sparked controversy last year when he declared that being an US ally did not mean being a “follower” or a “vassal”. Now, Macron has raised the possibility of a “strategic surge” of Western troops in Ukraine to repel the Russian invasion, urging Ukraine’s allies not to be... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3255593/macron-pushing-eu-rethink-nato-leadership-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3255593/macron-pushing-eu-rethink-nato-leadership-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 19 Mar 2024 01:30:12 +0000 The new year has been shaping up just fine for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, it seems. Firstly, Russia has stabilised its war fronts in Ukraine. The growing conviction in Washington and the capitals of its European allies is that, instead of aiming to defeat the Russians in the battlefield, Kyiv should seek to negotiate with Moscow to cease fire. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed rumours that he is considering a dismissal of his top military commander, Valerii... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3251024/why-russia-isnt-taking-its-chance-strike-against-stretched-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3251024/why-russia-isnt-taking-its-chance-strike-against-stretched-us?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 07 Feb 2024 21:30:12 +0000 With US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s announcement last week of Operation Prosperity Guardian – an alliance to defend “freedom of navigation” from attacks by the Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels on “Israel-linked” ships in the Red Sea – the Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza is in danger of a spillover that goes against America’s intention to focus on its rivalry with China. The Biden administration has made it known that China is the only rival which possesses both the willingness and means to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3246428/gaza-ukraine-us-risks-imperial-overstretch-china-waits-wings?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3246428/gaza-ukraine-us-risks-imperial-overstretch-china-waits-wings?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 29 Dec 2023 21:30:15 +0000 With the world looking on, US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met in person in San Francisco on November 15, their first meeting since the two posed shaking hands for a photo in Bali, Indonesia, at last year’s Group of 20 summit. While most would agree this did not signal a rapprochement between the two competing superpowers or even represent a thaw in the strictest sense of the word, the summit itself did manage to impress. The leaders of the two countries managed a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3242864/why-us-china-thaw-after-biden-xi-summit-bad-news-japan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3242864/why-us-china-thaw-after-biden-xi-summit-bad-news-japan?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Nov 2023 01:30:16 +0000 It seems the much-touted meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to go ahead at this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit in San Francisco, which takes place next week. The US side has announced that the two sides have agreed “in principle” for the leaders to meet. In Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin sounded less unequivocal, saying “the two sides have agreed to work together for the meeting between the two presidents in San... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3240879/bidens-real-reason-wanting-meet-xi-apec-summit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3240879/bidens-real-reason-wanting-meet-xi-apec-summit?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 10 Nov 2023 07:30:19 +0000 It’s been more than a week since Hamas launched its surprise attacks on Israel from the Gaza Strip, which were as successful militarily as they were harrowing in humanitarian terms. Few had expected this, including US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. Eight days before the attack, Sullivan had listed the positive developments in the Middle East that were allowing America to focus on other regions, declaring: “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” Hamas’... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3238133/israel-gaza-war-americas-middle-east-policy-has-gone-flames?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3238133/israel-gaza-war-americas-middle-east-policy-has-gone-flames?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 18 Oct 2023 21:30:09 +0000 Last week seemed an eventful one in diplomacy: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held forth on American foreign policy in Washington on Wednesday, before US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi held multiple rounds of meetings in Malta over the weekend. Blinken’s address, titled “The Power and Purpose of American Diplomacy in a New Era”, struck me as idealistic dictates by an ideological prophet, rather than an exposition of American foreign policy by the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235217/dont-be-surprised-if-xi-jinping-no-show-us-apec-summit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235217/dont-be-surprised-if-xi-jinping-no-show-us-apec-summit?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 21 Sep 2023 12:30:18 +0000 Chinese President Xi Jinping is to skip the G20 meeting in New Delhi this weekend; Premier Li Qiang, his No 2, is going instead. This is quite a symbolic gesture in the context of US-China relations, especially considering that a positive new normal seems to be taking shape with a series of interactions spearheaded by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing in June. US President Joe Biden said he was “disappointed” that Xi would not attend the G20 meeting, adding however that “I... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3233489/xis-g20-no-show-china-quietly-pushing-back-against-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3233489/xis-g20-no-show-china-quietly-pushing-back-against-us?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Sep 2023 17:00:17 +0000 July has been a busy month for diplomacy between the United States and China, with trips to Beijing by former US Federal Reserve chair and current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, as well as US climate ambassador and former secretary of state John Kerry. Also among the visitors was Henry Kissinger, the former secretary of state and national security adviser who helped initiate rapprochement between Washington and Beijing with his secret trip to China. All these visits came after Secretary of... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229006/us-china-relations-washingtons-increased-confidence-bodes-well-avoiding-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3229006/us-china-relations-washingtons-increased-confidence-bodes-well-avoiding-war?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 28 Jul 2023 16:30:11 +0000 US-China relations have been so bad, and the chain of recent events that led up to Antony Blinken’s visit to China – the first by a US secretary of state in nearly five years – had put so much attention on it, that his appearance in Beijing on Sunday was nothing short of melodramatic. The widely held pessimism about the prospects for Blinken’s two-day visit has turned into a subtle sense of triumph. This is in contrast to the efforts of both sides to tamp down expectations of the potential... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224724/china-taking-tactical-step-back-face-still-powerful-us-perhaps?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224724/china-taking-tactical-step-back-face-still-powerful-us-perhaps?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 22 Jun 2023 00:15:10 +0000 Henry Kissinger turns 100 on May 27. In the eyes of some, the former US national security adviser and secretary of state epitomises behind-the-scenes diplomacy with his ice-breaking trips to China, shuttle diplomacy missions in the Middle East and detente manoeuvres with the former Soviet Union in the 1970s. The way I see it, what he has pursued all his life is more important than ever. We are in a time when, in the words of US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, “all of us should... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221665/hope-us-china-relations-behind-scenes-diplomacy-makes-comeback?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221665/hope-us-china-relations-behind-scenes-diplomacy-makes-comeback?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 26 May 2023 19:30:17 +0000 When US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan delivered his speech on renewing American economic leadership at the Brookings Institution last Thursday, he thanked the audience “for indulging a national security adviser to discuss economics”. Indulged or not, he enunciated an essentially state interventionist and protectionist economic approach to restoring the United States’ middle class, whose atrophy he implied threatens the very foundation of American power and appeal. Key among the drivers... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219208/us-china-relations-de-risking-and-cold-shouldering-are-not-sustainable-superpower-strategies?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3219208/us-china-relations-de-risking-and-cold-shouldering-are-not-sustainable-superpower-strategies?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 05 May 2023 00:15:16 +0000 The buzzword is “acceleration”. No sooner had I made observations in this column late last month about the acceleration of geopolitical developments since the Biden administration came to office than we witnessed an acceleration of the acceleration. The Beijing-mediated rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran and President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow, both of which occurred last month, have set in motion potentially consequential tectonic-plate shifts in global politics. Two developments... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217344/us-gearing-fight-will-need-its-dollar-dominance-and-allies-europe?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217344/us-gearing-fight-will-need-its-dollar-dominance-and-allies-europe?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 18 Apr 2023 17:00:10 +0000 Amid all the commotion on the international scene of late, few people may have noticed that it was five years ago this week that then US president Donald Trump signed the memorandum on Chinese trade, a move widely seen as the official start of Washington’s fundamental policy turn against Beijing. The signing acquires symbolic importance due to President Joe Biden’s statement last October that the US faces a “decisive decade” in what he terms a contest between democratic America and authoritarian... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214175/bidens-decisive-decade-may-include-us-china-conflict-no-one-wants?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214175/bidens-decisive-decade-may-include-us-china-conflict-no-one-wants?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 Mar 2023 17:00:17 +0000 I wrote some two years ago that “it could be three, five or 10 years before Britain rejoins the EU” and “giving up the pound could be a key part of the deal”. I stand by the judgment. Interestingly, Guy Verhofstadt, former chief Brexit negotiator of the European Parliament, recently spoke along similar lines when he tweeted about his “dream” of Britain, together with Ukraine, “joining the EU in the next five years”. Indeed, it is in its own interest that London moves towards rejoining the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211455/time-struggling-britain-swallow-its-pride-and-return-eu-fold?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211455/time-struggling-britain-swallow-its-pride-and-return-eu-fold?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 27 Feb 2023 19:30:12 +0000 “Derelict Balloon Adrift” was NBC’s title for its “nightly news” report last Friday on the Pentagon’s announcement of an alleged Chinese spy balloon moving over the United States. As a result of the incident, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called off his much-anticipated trip to China just one day before his scheduled departure, claiming that “the presence of this surveillance balloon in US airspace is a clear violation of US sovereignty and international law ... The decision [by China] to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3209251/chinas-spy-balloon-shows-beijing-retaliatory-mood-amid-us-aggressiveness?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3209251/chinas-spy-balloon-shows-beijing-retaliatory-mood-amid-us-aggressiveness?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 07 Feb 2023 19:30:08 +0000 The new year has begun with America looking to have it all. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s offer of an Orthodox Christmas ceasefire was rebuffed by Ukraine, and US President Joe Biden scorned Putin for “trying to find some oxygen” with the proposal. More recently, some heavyweight German lawmakers turned up in Taiwan, defying Beijing, while Japan has just agreed for British troops to be stationed in its territory, inviting expressions of displeasure from the Chinese Foreign Ministry. All... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3206745/why-wont-us-break-china-russia-friendship-answer-europe?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3206745/why-wont-us-break-china-russia-friendship-answer-europe?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 16 Jan 2023 01:15:10 +0000 As 2022 draws to a close, there is an easing of US-China rivalry as the incumbent and emerging superpowers, a stalemate in Russia’s war in Ukraine, and recalculations being performed in the capitals of lesser powers between Washington and Beijing. The latest example is Saudi Arabia, which while remaining one of America’s two cornerstone allies in the Middle East since the Cold War, recently received Chinese President Xi Jinping and signed with his delegation a slew of big business and investment... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204032/us-and-china-slug-it-out-will-europe-and-russia-be-left-out-cold?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3204032/us-and-china-slug-it-out-will-europe-and-russia-be-left-out-cold?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 23 Dec 2022 17:00:20 +0000 A warm handshake in front of the cameras, followed by a three-hour simultaneously interpreted session termed “in-depth, candid and constructive” by the Chinese side, after which US President Joe Biden said there was no immediate prospect of Beijing retaking Taiwan by force and no need for a new cold war. Biden’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bali, Indonesia, ahead of the G20 summit last week, was their first face-to-face meeting since Biden moved into the Oval Office. It seems to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3200620/all-bali-optimism-us-and-china-are-only-digging-their-heels?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3200620/all-bali-optimism-us-and-china-are-only-digging-their-heels?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 25 Nov 2022 17:30:08 +0000 In the Hollywood film Forrest Gump, the title character quotes his mother as saying “life is like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re going to get”. That line struck me again when the news broke that holes were found in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines on September 26 and natural gas leaked as a result, with the pictures of a huge swirl on the sea surface quickly spreading online. It was sabotage. All parties condemned it and fingers were pointed, but the blame game has gone... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195550/ukraine-war-doing-us-bidding-russia-could-lead-europe-new-suez?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3195550/ukraine-war-doing-us-bidding-russia-could-lead-europe-new-suez?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 12 Oct 2022 17:00:21 +0000 The current state of the conflict in Ukraine, where Ukrainians are believed to have given Russian troops quite a licking, has strengthened the opinion in Washington that while Russia may be its most pressing problem, China – as the only country with both the intent and all-round power to threaten US supremacy – remains its biggest threat in the long term. That is why US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s melodramatic trip to Taiwan materialised in early August, despite repeated warnings from Beijing,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193151/how-will-beijing-react-us-pushing-its-buttons-taiwan-policy-act?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3193151/how-will-beijing-react-us-pushing-its-buttons-taiwan-policy-act?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 Sep 2022 22:45:11 +0000 Years ago, as a regional head of Asia for an American multinational based in Atlanta, Georgia, I was schmoozing with the visiting vice-president, international, over afternoon drinks on the Bund in Shanghai when he said of the company’s CEO, “Decisiveness is a key part of leadership, and Paul knows his stuff.” The context was that most people in the company had thought Paul was an incredibly charming man until shivers were sent down their spines by the news that the COO, who had been Paul’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3189354/if-war-breaks-out-over-taiwan-bidens-lack-leadership-will-be-blame?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3189354/if-war-breaks-out-over-taiwan-bidens-lack-leadership-will-be-blame?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 19 Aug 2022 17:30:25 +0000 A week is a long time in politics, or so goes the adage usually attributed to former British prime minister Harold Wilson. On July 7, Boris Johnson was forced to resign as British prime minister. The next day, the murder of Japan’s most influential politician, former prime minister Shinzo Abe, sent shock waves across the world. Then on July 14, Mario Draghi, Italy’s non-partisan premier, tendered his resignation after the populist Five Star Movement, the second biggest party in the coalition... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185827/japans-drift-and-europes-troubles-do-not-bode-well-pax-americana?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3185827/japans-drift-and-europes-troubles-do-not-bode-well-pax-americana?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 20 Jul 2022 17:00:26 +0000 US President Joe Biden’s whirlwind visit to East Asia in May reaped the expected rich harvest in terms of his administration’s policy to “shape the strategic environment around Beijing”, as summed up by Secretary of State Antony Blinken in his speech last month on the US’ strategic approach to China. Both South Korea and Japan rallied to Biden’s call for closer cooperation and coordination against China. Under the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which was officially launched during Biden’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3182387/why-us-and-china-are-unlikely-strike-grand-bargain-soon?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3182387/why-us-and-china-are-unlikely-strike-grand-bargain-soon?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 23 Jun 2022 01:15:14 +0000 When Henry Kissinger speaks, the world listens. The former US secretary of state’s address to the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, on May 23 was no exception. Aged 99, Kissinger remains true to the theory of the balance of power that he has long championed by appealing for Russia, now widely deemed the outright invader of its neighbour Ukraine, not to be completely isolated and for the US-China adversarial relationship to be eased. It is important to remember that Kissinger’s... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3179995/kissingers-shadow-how-will-history-judge-blinkens-diplomatic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3179995/kissingers-shadow-how-will-history-judge-blinkens-diplomatic?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 02 Jun 2022 17:30:15 +0000 As Washington enjoys the effect of its swift and draconian sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, alliances are a prominent aspect of its triumphant stocktaking. The Biden administration is known to consider the role of alliances in the pursuit of the US’ worldwide interests a top priority, in stark contrast to former US president Donald Trump who championed “America first”. Indeed, Washington is perfectly in its element because of the Ukraine crisis. Nato, topping its list of allies,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178500/europe-using-china-part-wag-dog-manoeuvre-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3178500/europe-using-china-part-wag-dog-manoeuvre-us?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 22 May 2022 16:30:16 +0000 Back in December, I voiced my fear in a column that some in Washington believed Beijing could be baited into attacking Taiwan, which would allow the United States to dust off its Cold War toolkit and apply comprehensive sanctions and decouple – tactics that secured victory in the US rivalry with the Soviet Union. That ominous prospect looms large now, it seems. Russia is under just such pressure for its attack on Ukraine and the US Treasury has said the Biden administration is prepared to use... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3175307/why-increasingly-confident-us-baiting-beijing-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3175307/why-increasingly-confident-us-baiting-beijing-over-taiwan?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 25 Apr 2022 19:30:26 +0000 The new US ambassador to China, Nicholas Burns, finally arrived in Beijing last month, and set about attending to business after a required spell of Covid-19 quarantine in the capital. Indeed, for the most important bilateral relationship in the world, it is extraordinary that the ambassador’s post had been left vacant for nearly a year before Burns was appointed to fill it in December. Supposedly personifying diplomacy – defined as “the established method of influencing the decisions and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3173134/diplomacy-failed-ukraine-us-and-china-must-not-let-it-happen-twice?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3173134/diplomacy-failed-ukraine-us-and-china-must-not-let-it-happen-twice?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 06 Apr 2022 17:00:20 +0000 As the war in Ukraine drags on, political scientist Francis Fukuyama has reasserted his “end of history” proposition, saluting the Ukrainians for making sacrifices for it. Fukuyama’s position deems Ukraine as an attestation of Pax Americana being resurrected, in that it is only a matter of time before Russia collapses, as the Soviet Union did in the aftermath of its invasion of Afghanistan. Russian President Vladimir Putin launched “special military actions” into Ukraine on February 24, claiming... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3171388/ukraine-crisis-has-brought-us-naive-foreign-policy-sharp-focus?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3171388/ukraine-crisis-has-brought-us-naive-foreign-policy-sharp-focus?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 23 Mar 2022 17:30:18 +0000 “Stuff happens,” former US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld said in 2003 at the height of US power, in response to the looting in Iraq following the US-led invasion. Such a cavalier attitude from America will seem out of place in the changing world order today. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which covers about 30 per cent of the world’s population and GDP, came into effect on January 1, and an EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment is expected to follow. While much has... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3163776/china-and-russia-us-should-no-longer-expect-world-follow-its-policy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3163776/china-and-russia-us-should-no-longer-expect-world-follow-its-policy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 18 Jan 2022 17:30:27 +0000 These days, one rarely hears about “Chimerica”, the phrase coined by historian Niall Ferguson and economist Moritz Schularick in 2007 to describe the symbiotic relationship between China and the United States. Back then, elites in Washington harboured hopes that a rising China would subject itself to a “rules-based” world order dictated by the US. How times have changed. With China increasingly deemed a revisionist power threatening America’s supremacy and values, Ferguson has emphasised in... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3160263/chimerica-revisited-why-us-and-china-should-forge-new-symbiotic?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3160263/chimerica-revisited-why-us-and-china-should-forge-new-symbiotic?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 21 Dec 2021 17:30:27 +0000 In its 10 months in office, the Biden administration has been generally rudderless but steadfast in its China-bashing policy, which remains a rare bipartisan rallying point in current American politics. Lately, the administration has seemed determined to be more provocative about Taiwan, which Beijing maintains is a renegade province it will eventually recover. The latest round of intense speculation about US-China conflict over the island started on October 21, when President Joe Biden was... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3155236/china-relations-and-taiwan-its-time-us-grow?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3155236/china-relations-and-taiwan-its-time-us-grow?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 08 Nov 2021 19:30:15 +0000