https://www.scmp.com/rss/508920/feed Gal Luft is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS). His latest book is De-dollarization: The Revolt Against the Dollar and the Rise of a New Financial World Order (2019). en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com How the war in Ukraine ends is the question many people have been asking over the past six months. For the first few months, each side had hopes of getting the upper hand. But, with Ukraine’s failure to take back Kherson, one must be a hopeless optimist to believe the military stalemate can be broken. Ukraine has turned into a quagmire, reminiscent of the meat grinders in the first world war. Many in the West still hope the Russian economy will implode under sanctions pressure. The Russians will... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3191558/how-russias-war-ukraine-could-end-donbas-next-northern-cyprus?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3191558/how-russias-war-ukraine-could-end-donbas-next-northern-cyprus?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 07 Sep 2022 17:30:14 +0000 Now the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics is over, it is time for China to begin to consider its reopening in the face of a pandemic that is increasingly coming under control throughout the world. China’s strict zero-tolerance strategy to keep Covid-19 case numbers low and its economy functioning has saved the lives of millions. But as countries return to normal life, it is time for China too to take the first steps to exit the pandemic. The urgency in reopening its gates is not that tourists can... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3168395/china-must-reopen-and-olympic-villages-cocoon-meeting-hotels-are?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3168395/china-must-reopen-and-olympic-villages-cocoon-meeting-hotels-are?utm_source=rss_feed Sat, 26 Feb 2022 11:00:29 +0000 When Donald Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol a year ago, it was hard to imagine him ever returning to the White House. But with under three years left before the 2024 US presidential election and with Joe Biden and Trump running neck-and-neck in the polls, it is time to ponder the implications of such a scenario, especially for US-China relations. If Trump were to run and win, he would be limited by the constitution to one term. Not having to seek re-election would free him from the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3162409/why-china-has-reason-wish-trump-presidency-2024?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3162409/why-china-has-reason-wish-trump-presidency-2024?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 07 Jan 2022 17:30:20 +0000 As the US-China strategic rivalry intensifies, it is easy to forget that, 80 years ago, Japan – America’s close Pacific ally today – attacked the US naval base at Pearl Harbour in Hawaii, unleashing a four-year war over China. While this dire episode is largely diametrically opposed to today’s geopolitical realities, there is one important lesson to draw from it for today’s superpower rivalry. The China of 1941 was a poor, rural nation. It was, on one hand, fighting the Japanese Imperial Army,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3158527/beware-new-generation-washington-warriors-bent-deterring-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3158527/beware-new-generation-washington-warriors-bent-deterring-china?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 06 Dec 2021 17:30:09 +0000 The Group of 20 summit, which will take place in Rome on October 30 and 31, is considered the most opportune venue for Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden to hold their first face-to-face meeting since the latter took office. Such a meeting would be long overdue, considering the rapid deterioration in US-China relations. By the time of the G20 summit, Biden will have been in office for more than nine months after having met every major world leader but Xi. Biden might have... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3148594/xi-and-biden-must-meet-face-face-g20-summit-rome-settle-worlds?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3148594/xi-and-biden-must-meet-face-face-g20-summit-rome-settle-worlds?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 14 Sep 2021 17:30:11 +0000 Cyberattacks can be divided into two categories: those conducted by criminals typically for monetary gain and those executed by state agencies and their proxies for national security and economic reasons. The distinction between the two is consequential. Governments are responsible for cybercrimes emanating from their territory and are obliged to identify, investigate and punish the perpetrators. A state-sponsored cyberattack is a whole different matter. A hack that is the work of a government... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3142447/how-us-shot-itself-foot-indictment-against-chinese-hackers?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3142447/how-us-shot-itself-foot-indictment-against-chinese-hackers?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 26 Jul 2021 17:30:17 +0000 Last month, the British Royal Navy’s HMS Defender got into an unpleasant encounter with the Russian military off the coast of Crimea as it was sailing through the Black Sea. The Russians reportedly fired warning shots, and a warplane dropped bombs in the path of the Defender. Fortunately, the incident ended without a scratch. Britain never hid the intention behind the voyage. It does not recognise the Russian annexation of Crimea and therefore it is “wholly appropriate” for it to sail in what it... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3139986/britains-delusions-grandeur-increase-risk-armed-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3139986/britains-delusions-grandeur-increase-risk-armed-conflict?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 07 Jul 2021 01:00:18 +0000 With less than 10 months to go before the opening ceremony of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, some in Washington are calling for the Biden administration to lead an international boycott of the Games in protest against China’s policies in Xinjiang province. If the US did decide to boycott the Games, it would be unlikely to go it alone but would do so jointly with like-minded countries. But, just like many other steps the US government has taken against China in recent months, such actions... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3128978/beijing-winter-olympics-2022-meaningless-western-boycott-would-only?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3128978/beijing-winter-olympics-2022-meaningless-western-boycott-would-only?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 11 Apr 2021 19:30:07 +0000 The rapid deterioration in US-China relations has made most small and medium-sized countries anxious. As if grappling with the devastating impact of Covid-19 was not enough, they are also increasingly sandwiched between the two great powers. Washington essentially tells them “you are either with us or with China” while Beijing uses economic coercion against those who adopt positions it deems unfriendly – case in point, Australia. Most countries, including those under the US security umbrella,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3122291/us-china-power-struggle-rest-world-must-come-together-stand?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3122291/us-china-power-struggle-rest-world-must-come-together-stand?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 19 Feb 2021 19:30:13 +0000