https://www.scmp.com/rss/509081/feed Stuart P.M. Mackintosh is executive director of the Group of Thirty. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com The year is shaping up to be one of shake-ups in global geopolitics and power. Donald Trump has assumed the US presidency for a second term with a resounding victory, after the Democrats failed in their appeal to working-class and other voters during a time of uncertainty, inflationary pressures and worries over immigration. Trump has promised much, from tax cuts and tariffs to ending the Ukraine war, amid US trade tensions with China. Trump has replaced Pax Americana with “America... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3296226/trumps-america-will-be-forced-grapple-rising-brics?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3296226/trumps-america-will-be-forced-grapple-rising-brics?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 27 Jan 2025 12:30:08 +0000 No one likes getting old. The pains and strains of becoming elderly wear on us. The worries about how to ensure we can provide for ourselves in old age looms largest of all, as countries’ birth rates fall, lifespans extend and costs mount. Nowhere feels this more acutely than China, where a staggering 300 million people are heading into their golden years and a great portion of retirees have minimal or no pension. We also see smaller families because of the now-abandoned one-child policy. As a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3258325/why-richer-older-china-needs-changes-its-social-contract?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3258325/why-richer-older-china-needs-changes-its-social-contract?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 09 Apr 2024 12:30:24 +0000 As pessimists often note, it will get worse before it gets worse. It looks as if this may be the economic, real estate and banking story that is unfolding in China’s economy. China Evergrande Group, a massive real estate developer, has been ordered to liquidate by a court in Hong Kong after international creditors pushed to seize its assets. This surely marks the end for the real estate giant, the most highly indebted in the world, saddled with about US$300 billion of liabilities set against... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250854/china-must-shield-rest-its-economy-property-contagion?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250854/china-must-shield-rest-its-economy-property-contagion?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 06 Feb 2024 11:30:13 +0000 No one likes bad news. It can ruin a morning. It changes how we think about our targets, goals or strategies, be they personal or business. Hearing bad news makes one think, as we complained as children, “that’s not fair”. But as my mother used to say, “life isn’t fair.” People and businesses across China face many sources of worrying economic news today. Whether it is the price of a flat, the plans of university-educated young people or shifting business decisions, this news involves sectors... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245253/revive-confidence-chinas-economy-clear-and-reliable-data-essential?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245253/revive-confidence-chinas-economy-clear-and-reliable-data-essential?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 17 Dec 2023 11:30:09 +0000 Economic downturns have commonalities across history and locations, as Harvard professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff taught us in This Time is Different. The book showed that banking and economic crises are often associated with falling equity markets and house price declines. Once house prices begin to fall, economic woes deepen. When home prices are rising, owners feel much richer, and so they spend more as the good times roll. But when the business cycle turns, and if home prices... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231812/avoid-economic-meltdown-china-must-not-repeat-americas-mistakes-2008?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3231812/avoid-economic-meltdown-china-must-not-repeat-americas-mistakes-2008?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 22 Aug 2023 16:30:13 +0000 In the autumn of 1949, two months after Mao Zedong formed the People’s Republic of China, he made his first major overseas visit, to Russia. Arriving in Moscow, Mao expected a warm welcome as a fellow communist leader, equal to his host, Joseph Stalin. That was not to be. The two wary communists viewed each other with suspicion. Stalin had originally backed Chiang Kai-shek; then, when the nationalists began losing, he switched to support Mao. Although Stalin saw Mao as weak, he also viewed him... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228716/xi-should-use-his-sway-over-putin-push-him-negotiating-table-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3228716/xi-should-use-his-sway-over-putin-push-him-negotiating-table-ukraine?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 25 Jul 2023 19:30:15 +0000 The recent and still-reverberating regional banking troubles in the United States require a frank assessment of the failures and faults by many actors. Central bankers and supervisors in other jurisdictions could learn lessons from America’s mistakes, in matters related to bank culture, regulation and supervision. On bank culture, a topic on which the Group of Thirty has opined repeatedly, the lessons are clear. A firm’s culture, demonstrated by the board and leadership, determines risk... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217916/how-china-can-learn-mistakes-us-banking-culture-and-oversight?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217916/how-china-can-learn-mistakes-us-banking-culture-and-oversight?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 26 Apr 2023 07:45:16 +0000 One year on from the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the pain and suffering mounts. The US’ most senior general estimates that Ukraine has seen in excess of 100,000 soldiers killed and injured, while US and European officials suggest Russia may have suffered close to 200,000 dead or wounded. A staggering eight million refugees are dispersed across Europe, a number not seen since World War II. Many Ukrainian cities and towns lie in ruin, with the eventual rebuilding cost at least US$349... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211595/ukraine-war-time-china-use-its-influence-putin-create-room-peace?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3211595/ukraine-war-time-china-use-its-influence-putin-create-room-peace?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 28 Feb 2023 17:00:09 +0000 A China slowdown was always on the cards – the economic history of development and industrialisation cycles in Asia and elsewhere show us as much. The four Asian tigers started fast, with growth accelerating rapidly, and for an extended period they significantly outperformed advanced economies, as their economies and societies evolved. But this period of rapid catch-up is not endless. As any country – even mighty China – gets closer to the level of sophistication of advanced economies, the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3208099/china-must-look-beyond-short-term-recovery-focus-its-long-term-economic-transformation?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3208099/china-must-look-beyond-short-term-recovery-focus-its-long-term-economic-transformation?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 27 Jan 2023 17:00:15 +0000 When world powers and their economies clash, driven by national ideological differences and geopolitical goals, cooperation and coordination withers and trade – reliant on common norms, openness and engagement – shrinks. Economies shrink too, as supply chains strain and break, and sanctions block the transfer of goods and goodwill. The severe and potentially long-lasting historical clash between a dominant United States and a rising China is complicated and made worse by the war launched by... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199119/decline-globalisation-will-make-our-planet-less-prosperous-and-more-unliveable?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3199119/decline-globalisation-will-make-our-planet-less-prosperous-and-more-unliveable?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 13 Nov 2022 17:30:09 +0000 History has shown that financial crises are often the story of either a housing bust or stock market collapse – or both. Think of the crash of 1929 that started as a Florida-driven housing boom-and-bust cycle and morphed into a stock market collapse that shook the United States and the world. Or consider the 2008 global financial crisis, which started with complex derivatives in subprime mortgages and was rapidly transmitted from bank to bank and market to market as investor panic rose. In 2022,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3189015/avoiding-pain-chinas-housing-crisis-risks-infecting-wider-economy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3189015/avoiding-pain-chinas-housing-crisis-risks-infecting-wider-economy?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 17 Aug 2022 01:15:12 +0000 The world is facing massive common challenges that require cooperative solutions. The Covid-19 pandemic has yet to end, and work to prevent another pandemic has only just begun. Rising debt burdens are endangering lower-income countries’ economic prospects and their people’s well-being. Spiking food prices and the disruption of grain deliveries since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have increased the risk of hunger in many parts of the world. And, on top of it all, governments and businesses... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181637/g20-paralysis-bad-news-tackling-global-food-health-and-climate?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3181637/g20-paralysis-bad-news-tackling-global-food-health-and-climate?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 15 Jun 2022 04:15:25 +0000 Over the past year, rich-country governments and central banks have provided unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus to help mitigate the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Getting back to economic normality – whatever modified form that takes in 2021 and 2022 – will require advanced economies to start weaning themselves off official support before too long, and thereby avoid dangerous new complications. On the monetary-policy front, central banks around the world did whatever was... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3124004/why-central-banks-must-handle-shift-post-pandemic-normal-extreme?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3124004/why-central-banks-must-handle-shift-post-pandemic-normal-extreme?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Mar 2021 16:15:09 +0000