https://www.scmp.com/rss/510904/feed Thomas O. Falk is a journalist. He writes about German, British, and US politics. en https://assets.i-scmp.com/static/img/icons/scmp-meta-1200x630.png https://www.scmp.com Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk America has endured intense political polarisation before. What it has not faced is a presidency that has transformed a federal law-enforcement agency into a potential instrument of political power. During Donald Trump’s second term as president, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) risks becoming just that. Created after 9/11 as a specialised arm of the Department of Homeland Security, ICE was meant to enforce immigration laws and combat transnational criminal networks. Its annual... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3341509/ice-fatal-shootings-raise-fear-over-trumps-use-federal-authority?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3341509/ice-fatal-shootings-raise-fear-over-trumps-use-federal-authority?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 28 Jan 2026 21:30:07 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk On a quiet Saturday morning, American special forces seized Nicolas Maduro in Caracas and flew him to the United States. Within hours, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington would “run” Venezuela – at least temporarily. What sounds like a 1990s action film plot marked the final burial of the notion that Trump is a president of peace, an illusion sustained largely by his own rhetoric. More importantly, it marked the day the world’s former arbiter of international law and norms showed... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338773/us-now-owns-more-just-venezuelas-oil?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3338773/us-now-owns-more-just-venezuelas-oil?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 06 Jan 2026 12:30:34 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk Last week’s release of the 2025 US National Security Strategy (NSS) was not a routine recalibration of diplomatic lines – it was a rupture. It represented the most explicit declaration to date that the United States no longer regards Europe as a partner in a shared transatlantic project but as a challenge to be managed, a continent to be reshaped and a strategic liability to be mitigated. The Trump administration has accused entire nations and supranational institutions of steering the continent... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335601/us-security-strategy-first-shot-trumps-war-europe?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3335601/us-security-strategy-first-shot-trumps-war-europe?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 09 Dec 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk There are moments in statecraft when a government reveals its strategic character. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s new administration has shown one such moment – and it was encouraging. On Ukraine, Berlin has moved with a decisiveness long thought beyond its political metabolism. Weapons are flowing. Defence production is expanding. Germany is anchoring Nato’s eastern flank and, for the first time in decades, speaking like a country prepared to bear the burdens of European security. On China,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3333715/stumbling-germany-needs-clear-strategy-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3333715/stumbling-germany-needs-clear-strategy-china?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 25 Nov 2025 12:30:09 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk Donald Trump has cast himself as “the president of peace”. He presents himself as a leader who ends endless wars, brings troops home and rejects foreign entanglements. It is a beguiling conceit: in his world, war is defined only by mass landings and protracted occupations. Deaths from drones or missiles? They remain invisible footnotes in his narrative. However, peace is not absence; it is restraint. On that count, Trump fails entirely. In recent weeks, the US has carried out multiple strikes on... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331314/myth-trump-president-peace?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3331314/myth-trump-president-peace?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 03 Nov 2025 12:30:18 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk There is a taxonomy of weakness. At the bottom lies bad policy and worse rhetoric. Above that sits a particular kind of failure that is quietly corrosive: the proclamation of a “red line” that is never enforced. That is what we are now witnessing in Europe. The facts are plain. In one recent Russian assault, Poland shot down 19 objects that penetrated its airspace in one night. Days later, three Russian MiG-31s loitered in Estonian airspace. Drones have flown over Danish military bases,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3327813/nato-must-answer-russian-air-provocations-action-not-ambiguity?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3327813/nato-must-answer-russian-air-provocations-action-not-ambiguity?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 06 Oct 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk Politics has always been adversarial. In a healthy democracy, that contest is bounded by rules: elections settle disputes, opponents are rivals not enemies, and losing an argument is not the same as losing one’s country. Break those bonds, and the descent from rhetoric to violence is swift, and we are beginning to see the consequences. Political language in the United States has grown increasingly toxic. Partisans no longer accuse one another of being wrong, but of being enemies and traitors.... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325675/western-society-must-take-firm-stand-against-political-violence?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3325675/western-society-must-take-firm-stand-against-political-violence?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 17 Sep 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk The images are bizarre yet familiar. Along Pennsylvania Avenue, troops stand watch in full battle dress. Armoured vehicles idle before monuments built to honour liberty. This is Washington, not Kyiv, Caracas or Moscow. It is not the aftermath of a terrorist attack or invasion but rather a president who has discovered that the spectacle of force is itself power. On the orders of US President Donald Trump, National Guard units have been deployed across the US capital. More striking still, he has... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3324129/how-trump-conditioning-americans-accept-his-autocratic-rule?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3324129/how-trump-conditioning-americans-accept-his-autocratic-rule?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 04 Sep 2025 12:30:07 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Britain is a nation in slow drift, outwardly composed but inwardly unravelling. His resolute backing of Ukraine and vocal commitment to European security have restored a measure of Britain’s standing on the world stage. However, this diplomatic poise conceals a glaring domestic void. Behind the polished speeches and choreographed handshakes lies a country buckling under stagnation. Its economic pulse is weakening, its public services are fraying and its faith in... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3318155/starmers-statesmanship-abroad-no-substitute-vision-home-britain?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3318155/starmers-statesmanship-abroad-no-substitute-vision-home-britain?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 17 Jul 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk The recent war between Iran and Israel has laid bare a truth long obscured by Kremlin bluster: Russia is no longer a superpower. Moscow’s muted response to Tehran’s plight is not an anomaly but the latest – and perhaps most telling – chapter in a pattern of strategic neglect that stretches from the Middle East to the Levant and South Caucasus. Driven by President Vladimir Putin’s neo-imperialist fantasies, Russia plunged into Ukraine to find itself in a quagmire that has bled its military,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3316114/attacks-iran-show-russia-can-now-do-very-little-its-allies?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3316114/attacks-iran-show-russia-can-now-do-very-little-its-allies?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 30 Jun 2025 02:30:07 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk When US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jnr removed the vaccine advisory panel of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), he framed it as a move for the “restoration of public trust”. But the implications stretch far beyond domestic politics. In dismantling one of the world’s most respected sources of vaccine expertise, the United States is not just undermining its public health, it is ceding global scientific authority to China. Trump’s elevation of figures like Pete Hegseth,... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3314065/us-vaccine-sceptics-are-now-charge-thats-bad-news-world?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3314065/us-vaccine-sceptics-are-now-charge-thats-bad-news-world?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 15 Jun 2025 12:30:07 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk In an era when diplomacy often postures as virtue signalling and foreign policy has grown allergic to nuance, Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz has executed a move of startling clarity and daring. He called President Xi Jinping, not to lecture him on human rights or wave the banner of Western liberalism but to propose a deal: help end the war in Ukraine. Merz’s appeal, couched in the anodyne language of international cooperation, was anything but soft. He told Xi that Russia’s war of... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3312480/why-germanys-leader-called-chinas-over-ukraine-and-why-it-matters?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3312480/why-germanys-leader-called-chinas-over-ukraine-and-why-it-matters?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 01 Jun 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk The UK-US trade deal, trumpeted by President Donald Trump as a grand achievement, is no triumph of statecraft. It is a hollow spectacle, political theatre masquerading as economic progress. For Britain, it lays bare the perils of negotiating from weakness. For other major economies – the European Union, Japan or China – it stands as a cautionary tale. They must heed Britain’s experience: strength, not desperation, must define their approach; substance, not optics, must be their demand. Strip... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3310170/britain-blinked-against-bullying-trumpian-america-others-must-not?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3310170/britain-blinked-against-bullying-trumpian-america-others-must-not?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 14 May 2025 08:30:09 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk When Benjamin Franklin emerged from the Constitutional Convention in 1787, a woman asked him what kind of government the delegates had crafted. “A republic, if you can keep it,” he replied. Those words, oft repeated, carry a note of caution that reverberates across the ages. A republic demands the vigilance of its citizens to shield it from the predations of power. Donald Trump’s second term as US president has exposed a harsh reality: the Constitution of the United States falters when leaders... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3307793/we-need-talk-about-trumps-war-us-constitution?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3307793/we-need-talk-about-trumps-war-us-constitution?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 28 Apr 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Donald Trump called it “Liberation Day”. Last week, with characteristic theatricality, the United States president unleashed a barrage of tariffs on America’s trading partners: 10 per cent on most imports, 34 per cent on Chinese goods and 20 per cent on products from the European Union. The message was vintage Trump: “America first”, rules be damned. But for all the patriotic bravado, this move was not liberation but escalation. It also presents Europe with a historic opportunity, not just to... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3305533/how-europe-can-teach-trump-hard-lesson-free-trade?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3305533/how-europe-can-teach-trump-hard-lesson-free-trade?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 09 Apr 2025 21:30:08 +0000 For decades, Germany prided itself on fiscal restraint, wielding the Schuldenbremse, or debt brake, as both shield and creed, a safeguard against excess and a symbol of post-war prudence. But in an era of resurgent Russian aggression and global upheaval, that restraint has become a liability. Now in a historic pivot, Germany has shed its self-imposed shackles, embracing power and reshaping Europe’s security order for generations to come. The Bundestag last week took a step that reverberated... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3303612/why-germany-cant-afford-not-spend-billions-defence?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3303612/why-germany-cant-afford-not-spend-billions-defence?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 25 Mar 2025 12:30:08 +0000 Thomas O. Falk Thomas O. Falk Friedrich Merz is due to take office as chancellor at a moment of geopolitical and economic reckoning for Germany. With Washington growing more unpredictable and Germany’s industrial base stagnating, Merz faces a stark reality: Germany cannot afford to decouple from China, nor can it ignore the risks of economic overexposure. Rather than choosing between confrontation and capitulation, Merz is likely to pursue a third path – one that recalibrates Sino-German ties to safeguard national security... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3301023/why-germanys-merz-needs-hedge-his-bets-china-and-us?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3301023/why-germanys-merz-needs-hedge-his-bets-china-and-us?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 06 Mar 2025 12:30:08 +0000 For decades, the United States has shaped global affairs not merely through military and economic might but through persuasion – its ability to build alliances, inspire trust and project stability. However, the Trump administration’s policies reflect a retreat from this strategy. As Beijing continuously expands its global influence, Washington is squandering one of its last strategic advantages. Soft power has long been a cornerstone of US leadership. A nation’s strength is not measured solely... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3299253/trumps-erratic-policies-are-wrecking-us-soft-power-chinas-benefit?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3299253/trumps-erratic-policies-are-wrecking-us-soft-power-chinas-benefit?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 23 Feb 2025 21:30:08 +0000 Since the end of World War II, Europe has thrived under the protective umbrella of the United States. Pax Americana, established through Nato and an enduring transatlantic partnership, allowed European nations to flourish, focusing on rebuilding their economies and societies while American military might deterred threats. This security arrangement is the cornerstone of Europe’s post-war stability and prosperity. Yet with Donald Trump back in the White House, the era of unquestioned American... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3296500/can-europe-use-trumps-return-reform-its-defence-capabilities?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3296500/can-europe-use-trumps-return-reform-its-defence-capabilities?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 31 Jan 2025 12:30:09 +0000 British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, navigating the domestic minefield of his early days in office, now faces his first defining test on the global stage in 2025 – a test that could determine not only the trajectory of his government but Britain’s role in a changing world. Given the UK’s stagnant economy and post-Brexit identity crisis, and the increasingly precarious global order, Starmer’s foreign policy will be defined by a cold, pragmatic pivot towards Beijing. This is not an ideological... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3292894/china-germany-offers-britain-both-blueprint-and-cautionary-tale?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3292894/china-germany-offers-britain-both-blueprint-and-cautionary-tale?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 31 Dec 2024 21:30:07 +0000 Joe Biden’s presidency has been quite consequential. His investments in infrastructure, climate initiatives and pandemic recovery have reshaped the United States’ trajectory. He fortified the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation at a critical time to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. However, these achievements could be eclipsed by decisions that prioritise personal interests over the greater good. Those decisions may define a presidency that promised renewal but instead stumbled into... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3289146/how-bidens-use-presidential-pardon-power-tarnishes-his-legacy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3289146/how-bidens-use-presidential-pardon-power-tarnishes-his-legacy?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 04 Dec 2024 12:30:08 +0000 Germany, once the iron engine of Europe, finds itself rusting. Guided by chancellors such as Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Schmidt, Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel, the country emerged from post-war ashes to become a paragon of economic resilience and political stability. Yet today, that same Germany is faltering – its economy stalling, its politics paralysed – and the timing could not be more precarious. Both Europe and China, crucial partners in Germany’s economic orbit, now find themselves tethered... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3286694/faltering-germany-poses-dire-risk-europe-china-and-beyond?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3286694/faltering-germany-poses-dire-risk-europe-china-and-beyond?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:30:42 +0000 When US Vice-President Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the Democratic ticket, the party’s operatives believed they had engineered the perfect formula for victory. Biden, after all, had become a symbol of age and frailty, his presidency increasingly defined by his gaffes and lack of vigour. Harris, with her historic nomination and ability to galvanise the Democratic base, seemed the antidote to Donald Trump’s bombast, and she began leading in the national polls, with even some battleground... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3282948/trump-wont-self-destruct-win-harris-must-come-out-swinging?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3282948/trump-wont-self-destruct-win-harris-must-come-out-swinging?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 20 Oct 2024 12:30:06 +0000 In the twilight of American institutions, US President Joe Biden recently stepped forward with a proposal that, while unlikely to see the light of legislative day, deserves a serious hearing. Biden’s proposed sweeping changes to the Supreme Court – a proposal for term limits on justices, a binding code of conduct and a constitutional amendment that would undo a controversial decision by the court that grants US presidents wide immunity from criminal prosecution – have been met with predictable... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3275015/joe-bidens-proposed-us-supreme-court-reforms-are-long-overdue?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3275015/joe-bidens-proposed-us-supreme-court-reforms-are-long-overdue?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 20 Aug 2024 14:30:08 +0000 In the ever-shifting landscape of American politics, 2024 is shaping up to be a year of extraordinary significance – yet again. US President Joe Biden’s campaign exit means Vice-President Kamala Harris is set to step into the role of the Democratic presidential nominee, a terrain fraught with peril but also potential. While polls suggest a daunting challenge ahead, with Harris trailing former president Donald Trump by 1.5 points as of late last week, her path to victory is not entirely... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3271554/heres-why-kamala-harris-can-beat-donald-trump?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3271554/heres-why-kamala-harris-can-beat-donald-trump?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 25 Jul 2024 12:30:09 +0000 Twice in the last 50 years, the political landscape of Britain has been dramatically reshaped: first by Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative triumph in 1979, and then by Tony Blair’s New Labour surge in 1997. Now, the nation stands at the precipice of another transformative moment. It is a virtual certainty that after an often tumultuous 14-year reign, the Conservative Party’s era is concluding. The expected wipeout election would be the culmination of self-destructive behaviour, but the ripple... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/video-opinion/article/3268847/dont-expect-labour-government-fix-broken-britain?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/video-opinion/article/3268847/dont-expect-labour-government-fix-broken-britain?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 03 Jul 2024 12:30:08 +0000 The European Union elections have crystallised a tectonic shift within the continent’s political landscape. Far-right parties have now entrenched themselves within the political mainstream, signalling a profound transformation that could shape the future of the EU for years to come. When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stood in front of the microphones on Sunday night, objective observers rightfully wondered whether she was referring to an entirely different election. While... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3266419/eu-elections-far-right-rose-back-centrist-parties-empty-promises?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3266419/eu-elections-far-right-rose-back-centrist-parties-empty-promises?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 13 Jun 2024 12:30:09 +0000 The West has rightly been focused on the political, economic and security-related issues posed by China. Other rising nations, such as India, are destined to become similar challenges for the West. In assessing the status quo, the chances of the West maintaining its role in the world, regardless of the challenges posed by external factors, do not look bright. This is not because the West will struggle to compete with China and other rising actors in terms of economic, military or soft power, but... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3262612/west-must-bridge-its-internal-divides-or-risk-becoming-irrelevant?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3262612/west-must-bridge-its-internal-divides-or-risk-becoming-irrelevant?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 May 2024 21:30:15 +0000 Whether Berlin would walk back economic relations with Beijing has been the subject of heated debates over the past few years. However, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to China this week shows that realism and a self-survival instinct continue to trump idealism in geopolitics – even in Germany. Scholz ended his three-day visit on Tuesday with a private meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Beforehand, Scholz said there was a lot to discuss, especially how Xi could “contribute more to a... https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3259323/why-germany-has-little-choice-continue-cosy-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3259323/why-germany-has-little-choice-continue-cosy-china?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 19 Apr 2024 12:30:23 +0000 If I had to give one sentence to provide my takeaway for Joe Biden’s State of the Union address last Thursday, it would be: There is life in the old dog, yet! For far too long, Biden’s public appearances have had the character of a solar eclipse – seldom and short. Indeed, he has given the fewest news conferences of any American president since Ronald Reagan. The reasons for Biden’s rather sporadic appearances are apparent. He is not a great public speaker and he never has been, even in his... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3255098/biden-can-still-win-re-election-voters-need-signs-leadership?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3255098/biden-can-still-win-re-election-voters-need-signs-leadership?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 14 Mar 2024 11:30:14 +0000 Given Donald Trump’s latest repugnant remarks criticising Nato last weekend, it’s safe to say that the former US president is no longer just a threat to American democracy but also to peace on the European continent. We’ve heard the anti-Nato rhetoric before. Ever since joining the campaign trail in 2015, Trump has displayed notorious disdain for the transatlantic alliance. So much so that his foreign policy “vision” then and now has been based on its obsolescence and the falsehood that... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252027/trumps-nato-rant-shows-him-threat-europes-security?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3252027/trumps-nato-rant-shows-him-threat-europes-security?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 16 Feb 2024 08:30:13 +0000 After Donald Trump’s landslide victory in the Iowa caucus, it is clear that there is no getting around the former president in the Republican Party – despite everything Americans already know about him. The future is therefore bleak. Although the primary season has just started, with his decisive win in Iowa, Trump has the nomination secured, albeit unofficially. His 51 per cent of the vote was a statement against the aspirations of Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida (21.2 per cent) and Nikki... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3248882/trumps-political-resurrection-has-begun?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3248882/trumps-political-resurrection-has-begun?utm_source=rss_feed Fri, 19 Jan 2024 01:30:11 +0000 Last Thursday, Maine became the second state to remove former president Donald Trump from the Republican primary ballot. Other states are also considering removing Trump as a candidate. Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows ruled that Trump incited an insurrection when he spread the falsehood of a stolen election in 2020 then urged his supporters to march on the US Capitol in an apparent effort to stop the certification of the election on January 6, 2021. While the legal question remains... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3246960/why-trumps-cheating-ways-must-be-stopped-good-us-democracy?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3246960/why-trumps-cheating-ways-must-be-stopped-good-us-democracy?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 02 Jan 2024 12:15:08 +0000 US President Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump in the polls. The key to election victory in the US has traditionally been the economy, but in the eyes of too many Americans, Biden is neglecting the domestic situation for the global stage – with a possibly devastating impact on the US and the international order. Last week, Biden welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington in an effort to provide further support for Kyiv. A year ago, on his last visit, Zelensky received a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245328/biden-desperate-beat-trump-2024-its-still-economy-stupid?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3245328/biden-desperate-beat-trump-2024-its-still-economy-stupid?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 18 Dec 2023 11:30:14 +0000 European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel and High Representative Josep Borrell are set to arrive in Beijing this week for the EU-China summit. Hopes that the European Union’s power trio can thaw the current ice age with Beijing are not high. However, on closer inspection, circumstances might give reason for a turning point, if only out of necessity for both sides. The EU-China summit will mark the first in-person meeting since relations... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3243872/why-eu-must-not-spurn-chinas-charm-offensive?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3243872/why-eu-must-not-spurn-chinas-charm-offensive?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 05 Dec 2023 21:30:09 +0000 Speculation about whether Germany would make a U-turn on China post-Angela Merkel was rampant when Olaf Scholz’s government was sworn in, in December 2021. Unlike in previous election campaigns, where foreign policy was mostly an afterthought, China emerged as a controversial topic. As a candidate for the German leadership, Annalena Baerbock – now foreign minister – behaved like a quasi-China hawk and demanded a realignment of relations while Scholz remained a wild card for the longest time,... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237126/despite-de-risking-talk-germany-has-not-turned-away-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3237126/despite-de-risking-talk-germany-has-not-turned-away-china?utm_source=rss_feed Tue, 10 Oct 2023 12:30:14 +0000 Outrage in London is great after the arrest of a suspected Chinese spy, and rightly so. At the same time, though, it is a welcome distraction for a government that has simply failed and will now take a tougher stance on China for all the wrong reasons. Espionage in the middle of Westminster illustrates the vulnerability and perhaps also the helplessness in dealing with China. That a parliamentary research fellow has been arrested is a “serious security concern”, according to opposition leader... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3234691/china-spy-scandal-perfect-cover-british-government-dire-need-distraction?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3234691/china-spy-scandal-perfect-cover-british-government-dire-need-distraction?utm_source=rss_feed Sun, 17 Sep 2023 08:30:18 +0000 As the US presidential election approaches, China is no doubt following developments in Washington with interest. Under both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Sino-US relations have changed. But who does Beijing prefer? China’s desire to challenge American hegemony and end the unipolar world attracted a more critical assessment in the Obama years, but it was Trump who exploited growing resentment against China in 2016 to escalate the situation via a trade war. However, his tariffs on China also... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3230854/us-presidential-election-there-better-option-biden-or-trump-both-america-and-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3230854/us-presidential-election-there-better-option-biden-or-trump-both-america-and-china?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 14 Aug 2023 19:30:17 +0000 Much has been said about US President Joe Biden. He’s been accused of being too old, a walking gaffe machine and too much under the yoke of his party’s progressive wing. Nonetheless, what Biden is doing economically is most impressive and has the United States in a stronger position now than it was pre-pandemic. But a crucial issue remains for Biden: much of the country continues to be oblivious to his success. That needs to change. Economists and critics sometimes apply the Misery Index to... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3227402/bidens-2024-election-hopes-hinge-selling-sceptical-us-voters-his-economic-plans-success?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3227402/bidens-2024-election-hopes-hinge-selling-sceptical-us-voters-his-economic-plans-success?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 12 Jul 2023 16:30:15 +0000 Germany has unveiled its new national security strategy, but those who expected a fundamental paradigm shift in the country’s security architecture were disappointed as Berlin remains vague on pivotal issues. Despite some harsh rhetoric, Sino-German relations are unlikely to change significantly. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz praised the strategy as a significant change. Driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the future of Sino-German relations, international pressure has mounted on Berlin... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224774/germanys-national-security-strategy-not-paradigm-shift-china?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3224774/germanys-national-security-strategy-not-paradigm-shift-china?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 22 Jun 2023 16:30:07 +0000 Ron DeSantis announced his US presidential candidacy last week in a disastrous appearance on Twitter Spaces. To many, DeSantis represents Donald Trump’s first serious challenger for the Republican presidential nomination in seven years. But he is far more likely to meet the same fate as Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz – who all lost the nomination to Trump in 2016. Last year could not have ended better for DeSantis when he won his re-election in November by nearly 20 percentage points, while... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221989/why-desantis-no-match-trump-race-republican-presidential-nomination?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3221989/why-desantis-no-match-trump-race-republican-presidential-nomination?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 29 May 2023 19:30:15 +0000 The figures are rather straightforward. US President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have hit 36 per cent in the latest polls – the low point of his tenure – and he trails in a hypothetical general election match-up against Donald Trump. These numbers notwithstanding, he remains the favourite in a rematch with his predecessor. Nobody was surprised when Biden announced he would run for a second term. A strong result in the 2022 midterm elections has all but ceased internal party scepticism of Biden.... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3220030/why-biden-trump-rematch-few-want-could-be-good-news-democrats-2024?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3220030/why-biden-trump-rematch-few-want-could-be-good-news-democrats-2024?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 10 May 2023 16:30:15 +0000 Those who followed German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s visit to China might believe that Sino-German relations are deteriorating. However, Baerbock’s stance on China by no means represents the entire German government. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will have the final say on China, and he has already indicated that a paradigm shift in this regard is unlikely. Partner, competitor or systemic rival? Since taking office in December 2021, Baerbock has emphasised that she seeks to shape a... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217690/german-anti-china-policy-dont-hold-your-breath?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3217690/german-anti-china-policy-dont-hold-your-breath?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 20 Apr 2023 19:30:10 +0000 Former US president Donald Trump’s arraignment last week dominated the headlines. For the first time in US history, a former or current president has been indicted. However, the primary issue regarding these developments must not be whether Trump will be found guilty but how much more damage his continuing delegitimisation of the US justice system will cause. His first public appearance after the arraignment left little doubt that he would seek to use the indictments for his political agenda and... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216538/guilty-or-innocent-trumps-attacks-us-justice-system-are-having-desired-destructive-effect?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3216538/guilty-or-innocent-trumps-attacks-us-justice-system-are-having-desired-destructive-effect?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 10 Apr 2023 19:30:10 +0000 While in office, US secretary of state Madeleine Albright referred to America as an “indispensable nation”, a statement that is still true. Last century, America ensured that Adolf Hitler’s totalitarian barbarism did not turn Europe into a dark place. This century, the United States – and Nato – has been the last line of defence against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imperialist fantasies, and the primary reason a sovereign Ukraine still exists. US President Joe Biden has enforced his red... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214199/what-if-america-under-trump-or-desantis-turns-its-back-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214199/what-if-america-under-trump-or-desantis-turns-its-back-ukraine-war?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 22 Mar 2023 19:30:13 +0000 Without officially announcing it, US President Joe Biden has launched his new campaign to run in 2024. That few people seem to have noticed is indicative of why Biden’s bid for another term is a risk and likely to end in defeat. Outside the usual Republican echo chambers, such as Fox News or One America News, most experts concurred: Biden did a good job during his State of the Union address, seemed confident, anticipated the rather uncivilised attacks and counterpunched, thanks to a fairly... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210173/biden-2024-why-us-presidents-re-election-bid-looks-doomed-already?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3210173/biden-2024-why-us-presidents-re-election-bid-looks-doomed-already?utm_source=rss_feed Thu, 16 Feb 2023 19:30:09 +0000 After months of reluctance, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz finally agreed to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. While the decision will change the war’s trajectory, the damage for Germany has already been done. Once again, Berlin has shown that the gap between aspirations and reality for European leadership has yet to be bridged. The war in Ukraine has been raging for almost a year. In the ever-changing environment, one constant has prevailed: Germany’s presence as an albatross around the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3208354/germanys-u-turn-tanks-comes-just-time-ukraine-much-too-late-nato-allies?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3208354/germanys-u-turn-tanks-comes-just-time-ukraine-much-too-late-nato-allies?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 30 Jan 2023 19:30:09 +0000 Faced with various crises and the prospect of fading support from the United States, the European Union needs to establish strategic independence. However, the continent continues to move in circles and cannot even compromise on the basics. The US appears to be slowly turning its back on Europe and China is positioning itself in the new bipolar world order, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded a European democracy for his neo-imperial fantasies. This, in a nutshell, is the... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3207095/europe-must-forge-strategic-independence-us-ensure-its-political-survival?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/world/article/3207095/europe-must-forge-strategic-independence-us-ensure-its-political-survival?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 18 Jan 2023 17:30:10 +0000 It took 15 ballots to swear in Kevin McCarthy as the new speaker of the House. It was the latest example that the Republican Party, the party of Reagan and Lincoln, remains incoherent and ungovernable, but the apogee has still not been reached. It was a Herculean effort by what has been described as the Republican extreme. The likes of Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz and Paul Gosar, who, under Donald Trump, moved from the party’s fringes to the mainstream, proved yet again just how politically... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3206083/us-house-speaker-debacle-forces-republican-party-contend-far-right-faction-its-own-making?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/united-states/article/3206083/us-house-speaker-debacle-forces-republican-party-contend-far-right-faction-its-own-making?utm_source=rss_feed Mon, 09 Jan 2023 17:30:15 +0000 German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been in office for a year. Besides his stoic nature and his reluctance to communicate political plans in detail, his European policy has been subject to criticism including a “Germany First” agenda, unilateralism towards China and disregard for the French. For the German head of government, who seeks to fill the void Angela Merkel left behind as de facto leader of Europe, it is an indefensible track record and adjustments need to be made. The Scholz-led... https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3203941/scholzs-approach-europe-and-china-risks-leading-germany-down-path-old-failures?utm_source=rss_feed https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3203941/scholzs-approach-europe-and-china-risks-leading-germany-down-path-old-failures?utm_source=rss_feed Wed, 21 Dec 2022 19:30:12 +0000